The Hokies open their season this Saturday against I-AA William & Mary. The Tribe comes off a 7-5 season that included a road loss to West Virginia in the opener where William & Mary lead 17-7 at the half. They are recognized as one of the top defensive teams in FCS after only giving up 14 points a game in 2013. The Tribe returns most of their defensive stars including preseason senior All-American Mike Reilly, along with senior All-American wide receiver Tre McBride. David Teel of the Daily Press did an outstanding job with discussing the hurdles that the unproven Hokie offense faces against the Tribe. For any fan to have appropriate expectations for the game, Teel's column is a must read.
Besides talent level, William & Mary will challenge the Hokies for two reasons. First of all, the Tribe coaching staff is very familiar with the operation in Lane Stadium. The Tribe offense is coordinated by former Hokies quarterback coach Kevin Rogers, and their defensive line is coached by former defensive tackle Kevin Lewis. Both understand the core principles of Bud Foster's defense and know how to attack it.
The Tribe also will be an interesting test because they are so completely different in terms of scheme and size to the offense and defense that the Hokie starting groups have been practicing against over the last few weeks. On film and on paper, William & Mary is a big believer in a "bigger is better" approach. The Tribe defensive line is a veteran group that rolls out defensive ends in the 250-260 pound range, while the defensive tackles are an Alexander Hamilton short of 300. The Tribe linebackers are bigger than several of the Hokie defensive linemen. After weeks of trying to block the lightening quick Hokie defensive line, the offense may struggle to adjust to a defensive line that actively seeks contact to keep blockers off their linebackers.
This will be a true test of the Hokies speed versus the Tribe's size and strength.
A Big Test for the Offense
Against West Virginia in 2013, the Tribe utilized three basic defensive front concepts. The Tribe started the game running what I call a 4-3 Eagle Weak defensive line. The 4-3 eagle weak aligns a nose tackle on the weak-side shoulder of the center. To the strong side, the defensive tackle aligns on the outside shoulder of the guard, while the end aligns wide. The concept is to overload the strong side with defensive linemen, and allow the athletic linebackers to make plays from the back side. Watching highlights from their CAA schedule, this appears to be their base defense most of the time.
Here is a great example of the Tribe executing their defense with their talented front-seven. The Mountaineers use a full house backfield with strength to the boundary, and they attack the Tribe with an isolation play.
At the snap, the defensive line slants to the strength of the formation, with the left defensive end having contain. Look closely at the three technique defensive tackle aligned on the outside shoulder of the right guard. That is 6-4, 290 rising senior defensive tackle Jasper Coleman (No. 94) from Richmond, VA. The guard's assignment is to reach Coleman on the play and seal him inside. Coleman has a leverage advantage by already being aligned on the guard's outside shoulder, and he has the strength and athleticism to maintain control of the gap instead of getting driven outside. Behind him, the Tribe's two all-conference linebackers work spectacularly in tandem.
Linebacker Airek Green (No. 6), a 6-0, 225 senior who had 13 tackles for a loss last season, has the assignment of fitting the gap formed between the left defensive end and Coleman, which means defeating the isolation lead block of the WVU fullback. Green attacks the hole aggressively and gets underneath the fullback to jam up the hole. The middle linebacker, 6-2 242 junior Luke Rhodes (No. 50), scrapes across and then attacks the space behind Green. He can scrape because the Tribe nose tackle ties up both the center and the left guard, meaning that three defensive linemen have occupied four potential blockers. Rhodes, who is the leading returning tackler and another all conference performer, sticks the tailback right in the hole for a loss along with Coleman. This is a beautifully executed scheme. For the Hokies to run the football, the uncovered linemen must effectively turn those defensive tackles when they execute a combination block, and then time releasing the block correctly to get to the second level. If they stick with the block too long, the Tribe linebackers are freed up to make the play. If they don't get enough initial push, the Tribe defensive line is talented enough to make plays in the backfield. The approach is similar to Bud Foster's gap approach, but Foster's defensive line uses more aggressive slanting (sometimes requiring crossing two gaps), while the Tribe take away the strong side through their over-shifted alignment.
After one series against the Mountaineer spread, the Tribe switched to a 3-3 stack and a 5-1 with the outside linebackers aligned as stand up edge rushers. If Coach Loeffler brings in multiple receiver packages, don't be surprised if William & Mary incorporates these looks to confuse the offense. In the stack look, the three linebackers align directly behind a three-man defensive line. The Tribe will add an extra safety. Two safeties align almost like outside linebackers, while the free safety aligns deep with the Tribe corners to play a cover 3 look. This allows the Tribe to get 8 defenders into the box right after the snap without exposing their corners in man coverage. The defensive line will work to tie up blockers, leaving the stacked linebackers and safeties unblocked, as demonstrated here against a Mountaineer sweep.
Meanwhile, the 5-1 (a three man defensive line with two stand up linebackers on the line of scrimmage) gives the Tribe a defensive alignment where they can zone blitz from several different angles. As a run defense, the 5-1 puts tremendous pressure on Rhodes to be very sharp tackling against quick hitting plays up the middle, but as you see here, he is an excellent tackler.
Finally, left tackle Laurence Gibson will receive a stout first test in All-American senior defensive end Mike Reilly. Reilly (No. 95) is a 6'4", 265 pound bull on the quarterback's blind side. He isn't blazing fast, but he has tremendous power on the bull rush and can change things up with nice leverage rush moves, especially a rip move through the tackle's inside shoulder. Reilly had 11.5 sacks last season, including two against West Virginia. While he is excellent at executing defensive coordinator Trevor Andrews' wide variety of zone blitzes, but he can run right through the left tackle with a bull rush even when the Tribe only rushes three. Here, Reilly just bulldozes the West Virginia left tackle into Clint Trickett's lap, then extends to get separation and slides off for the sack.
The Tribe secondary doesn't particularly stand out. From various defensive alignments, you will usually see some form of cover three (three defenders covering the deep middle and both deep sidelines) on every defensive snap. Much like the front, the secondary group is big, and they appear to be sure tacklers. Speed may be a question mark, but Vince Mihota and Steve Sobczak's former high school teammate DeAndre Houston-Carson is a returning third-team All-CAA cornerback who blocked two kicks last season.
Preview of Boston College and the Tre McBride Adjustment
Very little jumps out on film of the William & Mary offense. The Tribe will rotate several running backs, line up their big but inexperienced offensive line with very tight splits, and run a variety of basic inside zone plays from a single back multiple tight end formation or a shotgun-spread look. The Tribe offense only scored 21 points a game last season, and Coach Rogers has to replace the entire left side of their offensive line. Neither potential Tribe quarterback has started a game in college.
However, the Tribe is big everywhere, from offensive line, to running backs, to the receivers. They will pound the football rotating several solid bigger running backs and try to keep the quarterbacks comfortable with safe passes off play-action to the tight ends and fullbacks in the flat. Fullback Darnell Laws had 8 catches (including a touchdown) against West Virginia, mostly on bootlegs where he leaked out to the short flat. Interestingly, Laws played in all 12 Tribe games but he didn't catch another pass all season. The Hokies have often struggled containing backs and tight ends on bootlegs due to their aggressive backside pursuit in Foster's gap scheme. Don't be surprised if Laws gets targeted as a change up when Coach Rogers feels that the Hokies are loading up on the running game.
When William & Mary goes looks to stretch the defense, seniors Tre McBride and Sean Ballard will be the primary targets. The 6-2, 205 pound McBride was a Sporting News College All-American honorable mention last season after making 63 receptions for 801 yards with five touchdowns, including two spectacular plays against West Virginia. The Tribe will pound and pound and pound inside, and then take a shot deep.
McBride has the ability to target the ball at the highest point and take it away from the defender. Here, the Tribe quarterback (since graduated) throws on an out-and-up to McBride. WVU is in a cover two deep. There is no reason for the quarterback to throw this ball, but he sees the corner "bite" on the fake (he is actually just sitting in his short zone) so he fades the ball deep. McBride goes up and bails out his quarterback.
The Tribe offense moves McBride all over the field, but he spends most of his time aligning to the wide side. Against a normal Bud Foster look, that would mean that McBride will spend most of his day covered by Brandon Facyson and Chuck Clark, and far away from Kendall Fuller. Against Pitt, Foster changed up his defense by taking Kyle Fuller off the boundary and mirroring him on talented freshman Tyler Boyd. I am sure Coach Foster will try to run his base defense and not show too much against a I-AA squad, but if things are close and McBride is getting open (especially from the slot), don't be shocked if Fuller starts to shadow him with lockdown press coverage.
Former Hokie Christian Reeves gives the William & Mary receiver group depth in spread looks, but the Tribe will try to throw the ball as little as possible against Bud Foster's fast defensive front. The Tribe staff wants to use those tight formations to negate the speed of the Hokie front, and sustain drives to wear down the starting group.
Prediction
This is a very difficult game to predict. I have no idea what the Hokie offense will look like. Without being absolutely certain of the big play capability that Isaiah Ford, Shai McKenzie, Marshawn Williams, and Bucky Hodges can bring to the table, the Hokies wouldn't appear to have the speed advantage that would give the Tribe defense problems. Defensively, the Hokies have to account for McBride and get the Tribe behind the sticks on first down. I don't think the Tribe has the talent to make plays in second- and third-and-long situations. If William & Mary is getting lots of second-and-5's, it could be a long day in Blacksburg with the Buckeyes looming on the horizon for the young Hokies.
Score: Hokies 24–Tribe 10
Comments
I really really really really hope we don't win by 14 points.
A 10 to 14 point win sounds about right, this is not a team to overlook& take for granted . Tech will not win by a Blowout.
Considering VT is roughly a 3 TD favorite in the lines I've seen a 10-14 point victory would be disappointing. If W&M score 10 points against VT then I'm going to be concerned about the defense. I honestly don't think the offense will need to do much for VT to win this game going away. Take advantage of mistakes from the W&M offense, pop a few plays due to the athleticism advantage and this should be a comfortable W.
Edit: Also don't discount the role the heat may play tomorrow. VT will have much more depth and should be able to wear W&M down since the forecast is calling for temps in the upper 80's. I agree that it could be a pretty tight game through the first half but I would hope to see some separation in the 2nd half.
Why would a team from Williamsburg be more worn down by heat than a team from Blacksburg?
Because they have far fewer scholarship playes and the talent level of those players - as in elite vs non elite - is less. There's really no sensible reason for thinking this is limited to a 2 TD game, it should be at least twice that, or else we need to re-examine some of the fan-based paradigms we've constructed over the summer. I really don't understand all the fearmongering over this game by the same people who think we could/should go 10-2 in the regular season. They are an FCS team. We've had all summer. If this game is THAT hard, I don't even want to observe the hand wringing over the next eleven. Good gosh, folks, it's not going to even be close.
swvadon hit on the major reason and that is VT has 85 scholarships and W&M only has 63. However, you're better teams are typically going to have better depth as well. VT should be able to play second stringers throughout to keep their players fresh where there is likely a much greater drop off in talent from W&M's starters to their second unit. If W&M tries running with their starters more to keep the game close in the first half then they are much more likely to run out of steam in the 2nd half.
remember, a betting line isn't a score prediction. It is an estimate for getting money to be bet evenly for both teams so the house always wins.
That's absolutely true but if the smart money knew this game would only be 10-14 points then you likely would have seen a pretty solid swing in the line to keep it in balance. That's also not to say that the line isn't completely out of whack. Early in the season lines are always more of a crapshoot considering all of the unknowns, just take last night's USC vs A&M game as a perfect example.
Koastal - would you take a 14 point win, an OSU blowout of Navy, and then a VT win over OSU?
Part of me wants a low score game leading to OSU overlooking us.
Another part of me wants Marshawn & Bucky to score 5 TDs ea.
I would take a 1 point win over Bill & Larry if it guaranteed a win against anOSU.
I might take a loss to W&M if it guaranteed a win against the Bucks. I have an Ohioan coworker that would be fun to talk smack to for the whole season. But really, I don't want to lose to another FCS team. My emotions can only be shredded so many times.
Yes
With Facyson's health a question mark, don't be shocked if Foster throws a change up and takes Fuller off the boundary to shadow McBride, much like he did with Kyle Fuller on Tyler Boyd when Pitt put both Street and Boyd to the field last year. McBride prefers lining up to the wide side, and if Foster sticks with his normal alignment and Facyson is out that means McBride could be one on one with CJ Reavis all day. I like Reavis, but that is a tough coverage assignment on day 1 of your college career. McBride is a good player.
Would Reavis be the guy? In all the previews I've seen, I've barely heard him mentioned.
If Facyson is out, Chuckie starts at CB and Reavis is the Nickel.
isn't der'woun greene (r-so) also a backup nickel? as impressive as i've heard reavis is, i'd be more comfortable with greene picking up the nickel. the other option is bonner down to nickel (which he's done before) and slide desmond frye back to free safety. in foster i trust and if cj reavis has his trust, then so be it. it just seems that there are some other more experienced players that could fit the role instead of a true freshman.
I am actually surprised that Kendall wouldn't move inside with Riley moving to the boundary, but we have heard very little about Riley in this camp.
good point...where the heck has he been? i guess when we're loaded with 1st team talent, the 2nd teamers don't get much pub. i thought i remember hearing that he got dinged early in fall ball but can't find anything to back up my ever increasingly terrible memory.
If they are controlling McBride, expect to see a bunch of RVD against the Tribe's big power sets.
Sorry, no coffee yet. The brain cell that is storing the data to tell me what RVD is, either is not yet synapsing or it died last night.
Ronny Vandyke
I swear to god... if he ever pulls this move after making a big play this year, I'll lose my shit.
I am ready to see a bunch of RVD.
I wouldn't even be surprised if it's a 17-10 win. I think SL will use some plays he has drawn up for tOSU just to see how the new faces react, but I imagine it'll be a very vannila offense for this game. Ever since the new coaches got on campus there has been more secerecy around the program, I think that is all SL's doing.
If it stays that close I sure hope we break out anything we need in the playbook. My sanity can't handle another JMU.
What do you mean can't handle another JMU? We haven't played JMU since 2003 and we beat them 43-0...
FINALLY! Thank you!
Oh yeah. I was thinking about Michigan and App state. My bad
Hey, we beat both of those teams too!
Soooo many articles, man you can tell it's football time.
Thanks, French. I still have lots of learning to do.
Well, that just made me a little bit more nervous. Excellent write-up though.
All I wanted was a nice, easy 1-AA game to take the edge off and ease my transition into the bulldozing we're going to get at the hands of An Ohio State University. Now I read this and find out it's actually going to likely be a close game with a bunch of unknowns as our unproven offense faces a good defense?
Goddamnitsomuch.
It's going to be easier than you think. With all of our young talent on offense, every one of those kids (Shai-town, Mars, Isaiah Ford, Cam Phillips, Bucky, etc., and Brewer in his first game at the helm as VT's starting QB) are going to be chomping at the bit to show what they can do, announce their arrival in Blacksburg and to the college football world. Even if we start to pull away early, and Loeffler decides to go "vanilla", there isn't going to be any letting off the gas for these players. They're young and will be doing everything they can to prove that they belong on the field-because the depth chart is still very much up in the air and will be evolving throughout the first half of the season (if not longer). The defense is going to come out on fire and shut out a very overmatched W&M offense. Lane is rocking and VT wins 51-0. LET'S GO.......
W&M will hang in for about a quarter and a half and then the train will start to roll. W&M are playing alot of young guys in the defensive backfield and one of their seniors is 8 months removed from ACL operation.
Rmember the WVU was awful last year.
Holy Bleeping Bleep...A Hokie Game Preview.
FINALLY!!!!!!
We should find out early in the season if the Hokies have made significant improvements in the rushing game.
William and Mary's front seven is big and talented enough that if Tech has their way with them, I'd feel pretty good about our chances offensively the rest of the year
This is something I am going to be watching closely as well. This offense could be pretty good, but a revamped running game will be crucial and I agree how they fare against W&M will be a good early indicator.
This.....all starts with the running game. I still don't imagine Tech having their way with anyone in regards to the offensive line yet, but hoping they prove me wrong.
We've got too much speed (offense and defense) for this group. Look for jailbreak screens that pick up big yards, some quick-hitting inside traps and some TE seam routes to make this a blow-out by half time.
And Fosters defense will be ready as well, with guys in the backfield all day. Pressure and freshman QBs make for 4-turnover game. I'm expecting to see backups playing the 4th quarter. Hokies 44-13.
Delaware tried to screen W&M to death last year and W&M pretty much ate it up. The only team that was able to find a lot off joy running the ball was Towson with Terrence West (who is now in the NFL). Teams had their most success against the defense on short 5-7 yard passing routes.
Well that might just be Brewer's calling card. I hope.
#TexasForever
I'm hoping that's the outcome, because if we can only score 21 on W&M, no way we score more than a TD on OSU.
Very good first test for us. A 1-AA team with size, well coached, and playmakers.
Yup. Thinking hte same thing..
This game would be easier to predict if we knew what the offense looked like. I'm thinking unless things go horribly, the offense may look as vanilla as possible with Loeffler saving some tricks for anOSU. W&M be in it for about a half, then our speed kills their size. 28-3 Hokies.
T-minus 2 days, so....
I want to see Jarrett smack a bitch like that on Saturday.
Whoever down voted you needs to get smacked as well...
Ain't no one gonna stop me from saying bitch on the internet.
Anyone who's offended by that may want to avoid the gameday thread tomorrow.
Wait, we can't say bitch anymore?
This game is nearly impossible to predict an outcome for. I feel like we haven't seen even 1 play from our offense, so its hard to figure out how good the Oline has been playing, how good the RBs have been, how effective Brewer is. This game scares me not because of W&M, but because we have no idea what to expect from our offense.
It would be nice to see Juice channel his inner Ryan Williams and take one of their linebackers for a ride like a drag sled
I think our OL could match up well with their size. We have a bigger and stronger front than before that I hope can move guys whose goal is to eat up blocks.
When Searels was talking about a bigger stronger o-line this offseason, I think he was dreaming of Teller, Conte, and Shuman starting. Now Conte is the only one that will. They might be stronger due to conditioning, and some might have put on weight, but I think the dream was to have taller, lengthier, goliaths. Conte definitely fits that mold. Teller too, once he can play at college speed.
You really think he thought Shuman was better than McGlock? It even seemed like at the ACC meetings that Beamer was surprised that McGlock wasn't first team. I always assumed Shuman at #1 was just to push McGlock.
Honestly I'll be more worried about teams with good RBs than WRs this season.
Agreed. I keep thinking of that Miami game in 2011 where we couldn't stop them down the stretch. Offenses with big OL's scare me to death this year. Pitt scares me more than ECU.
You can't teach big, but you can't teach coordination either. Pitt's OL were totally overwhelmed by VT's speed last year. I expect more of the same this year. If you read the Pitt boards after the game, all they were saying was that their O line was no match for VT's speed.
I don't get all of the people pre-season picking Pitt as a VT loss. Yeah I know that Pitt has been a prob for VT. But I think with this year's game on Thurs nite, the energy level will be higher than usual at Pitt -- which oddly will benefit VT. If VT has any kind of offense that can sustain drives this year, I think this will be a bad match up for Pitt.
I think we'll have to throw more than we want and I think Lefty may be stubborn about pounding the ball...so not a ton of points. I do think Ford is a mismatch for them and he may get a deep ball or 2. Lefty may wait for OSU to roll out Bucky. I could see the new FG kicker getting a workout. But I don't see W&M doing a lot on O.
Once the point differential hits about 28 points, Frank will do what he has always done and tap the brakes. Frank has never been one to embarrass a team. Except Syracuse with McNabb (63-0) and they had it coming to them.
I think McNabb was gone when we beat them in '99. We were just giving them payback for what they did to us the previous year.
I was at that game, a beat-down of glorious and near biblical proportions. I don't remember that much, due to age and both 94 Caymus and 94 Silver Oak tucked inside my jean jacket (remember those?). Wasn't Syracuse ranked in the top 10 or something close going into that game?
Was there too.
I think the 'cuse were top 20.
I remember walking out of Lane thinking 'did that just happen?.'
At the time, it was the biggest beat down of a ranked team ever.
It wasn't a bad Syracuse team either-they went on to a bowl game and beat UK.
Hokiesports lists Cuse as being #16 heading into that game. Usually they use the AP rankings for the site, so I assume that's what is there.
I'm new to this site this fall.
I think I'm going to like it here.
Great write up, frenchwasp. You a huguenot?
He's a knot but, don't you think asking him if he's huge is a bit personal?
I know WM has a good defense but I really hope Scot doesn't hold anything back. It would be nice to establish a good running threat as well as a solid receiving threat. Give anOSU a lot to think about.
The Hokies have a huge speed advantage, and I expect that the straight forward approach of the W&M offense with a bit of an unknown quantity at QB will ultimately be the factor. But, I will walk away feeling good if the Hokie offense can get a push up front and not just beat the Tribe on the edge with speed. To me, that is the big measuring stick.
The Tribe will be debuting a new quarterback (Steve Cluley) on Saturday. Cluley is a good runner, but this is his first start. Here is his HS film.
Not bad. But those first 2 passes in the vid, there's NOOOO WAY Fuller, Facyson, Jarrett or Fisher would let them have that much space. Easy pickins.