Saturday, the Hokies find themselves in a must win battle against the North Carolina Tar Heels. The loser will be 0-2 in the ACC, and on the outside looking in at a potential Coastal Division championship. The Hokies have never been 0-2 since moving to the ACC in 2004. Interestingly, the divisional battle also pits the two power five defenses that have given up offensive plays over 20-plus yards at the highest rate this season. The winner Saturday most likely will be the team that can best prevent big plays on defense while breaking them on offense.
Despite struggling defensively in losses to Clemson and East Carolina (giving up over 400 yards passing in each game), North Carolina seems to have the advantage. The Hokies have struggled to generate big plays on offense (only 21 plays all season over 20 yards), while UNC has delivered 17 plays over 20 yards in one less game. Both teams have defenses that give up the big play, while both offenses have resorted to dinking and dunking their way down the field, where often a busted assignment or mental error has killed a drive. Remove the big plays given up in the passing game, which Bud Foster said have mostly been the result of the Hokies not properly using technique or blowing assignments in the called coverage, and the Hokie defense has been strong this season.
Keep an Eye On: The UNC Offense
UNC's offense is a unique animal. In a similar fashion to East Carolina, they try move at a fast pace to prevent the defense from substituting by getting to the line in no huddle and running plays quickly. But unlike the Pirates, the Tar Heels utilize quarterback Marquise Williams much more effectively on designed runs (heavy read option), and the passing play structure features a much greater diversity of routes compared to the Pirates' limited package of screens, slants, and post-wheel combinations.
After watching the Heels on film, that diversity may actually be a problem. UNC rotates two quarterbacks even though Williams may be the most difficult quarterback to defend in the ACC Coastal. Even though Williams has the ability to beat teams with his arm and legs, backup Mitch Trubisky subs in on the third series and throughout the game. Three running backs have over 20 carries even though freshman stud Elijah Hood and sophomore T.J. Logan are averaging over 4.5 yards per carry. Dynamic Ryan Switzer, a year removed from a season where he returned five punts for touchdowns and was named an All-American, is a threat threat that UNC will deploy Switzer on a variety of screens, jet sweeps, and reverses to get him into space. The threat of Switzer and the read option plays will force the Hokies to play solid assignment football, something that the defense struggled with against Georgia Tech. Foster's troops must stay at home and trust their teammates to execute their assignments. Over pursuit could have disastrous consequences.
For most of their matchup, Clemson did an outstanding job of defending Switzer by playing solid assignment football. Here is an example of a UNC gadget play where Clemson stays at home.
The Clemson right / weak side d-end Shaq Lawson (No. 90) is left unblocked and read by North Carolina quarterback Mitch Trubisky. The play seems like outside zone read all the way. Lawson doesn't crash the line and Trubisky gives it to tailback T.J. Logan (No. 8). However, it's a reverse. Logan flips the ball to wide receiver Ryan Switzer who is coming back around for a minimal one-yard gain. Like against Georgia Tech and Ohio State, Virginia Tech's defenders will have to do their job and trust teammates to do theirs. The Tar Heels don't fool Clemson because both Lawson and corner Garry Peters (No. 26) don't abandon their back side run responsibilities.
At the same time, the Hokies can't be so conservative against Switzer that they give him the space and time to make plays with his speed. Late against Clemson, Switzer broke a screen for a 75 yard touchdown run, and against ECU, the Pirates got caught giving Switzer too much room and he burned them with a touchdown pass.
Fedora has a deep bag of tricks. Take away Hood and Switzer, and the UNC quarterbacks still have their choice of big NFL-sized receivers in honorable mention All-ACC 6-4, 215 Quinshad Davis (13 receptions, 142 yards, 2 TDs), 6-3, 200 Mack Hollins (11 receptions, 277 yards, 3 TDs), and 6-4 200 Bug Howard (16 receptions, 139 yards, 1 TD). While the big UNC receivers don't do a terrific job of getting separation, they do have the ability to win jump balls against the Hokies smaller corners and safeties, and all three are comfortable playing from the slot. They present a matchup nightmare for a secondary that has struggled defending big receivers in the slot since the Ohio State game.
What to Watch For: Continuity and Big Plays
With all these weapons at his disposal, how is Larry Fedora coming out on the losing end the last two weeks? Take away the UNC pass defense, which has been terrible, and a close inspection of Fedora's offense reveals many of the same problems that have been noted with the Hokies offense. Fedora has a tendency to get too cute, either by using his diverse playbook when it is clear that several bread and butter plays are working. Also, the rotation of so many different skill position players, especially the quarterbacks, screws up the continuity of the offense. When Marquise Williams is in the game, he becomes a primary runner (he leads the team in carries (38). Trubisky is talented, but his interception to touchdown ratio and completion percentage is lower than Williams. If that is a byproduct of the Tar Heels becoming more of a downfield passing team with Trubisky, well that speaks to part of the problem. Right now, the Heels have the same playbook, but are running two different offenses in terms of identity even though the X's and O's look the same. The constant rotation of the running backs from a power back in Hood to speed guys like Romar Morris and T.J. Logan has the same effect. Switzer is a terrific weapon, but using him on gadget plays can derail a drive as quickly as they can jump start it. Fedora seems to have too many toys to play with.
Against Clemson, North Carolina moved the football well, but struggled to generate big plays. If the Heels stayed ahead of the chains and had third-and-shorts, the short passing game and the legs of Hood and Williams usually sustained the drives. But, as college kids do, on long drives mental errors creep into the Heels game, and Clemson's terrific pass rush and UNC's receivers' inability to get separation down field produced enough stops early that the Tigers never looked back. The rotation of players has to contribute to that inconsistency.
Williams (in-)accuracy is the easiest to identify. While Williams completes a high percentage of passes, he is wildly erratic in the drop back passing game. One throw will be a beautiful soft toss to one of his big receivers on a fade route. The next will be way off the mark to a wide open receiver in the slot.
Bud Foster's defense has to prevent the Tar Heels from getting quick strike scores. The more the Hokies defense can prevent big plays, the more opportunities that the UNC offense has for busts. Stopping big plays is going to be a tough task. Williams will look for all three of his big receivers on fade routes from the slot, much like East Carolina torched the Hokies on three weeks ago.
Hood is the best running back the Hokies have played, and Williams has the size, strength, and athleticism to break contain against the Hokies pass rush. With the Hokies seemingly committed to sending six or more pass rushers while playing man coverage downfield, Williams breaking contain is a recipe for disaster.
Not to mention Switzer, who can turn a tunnel screen or a punt into a game-winning touchdown at any time.
Because of Switzer's ability on screens and short passes, and Williams ability to break contain, it seems logical to expect Bud Foster to use more zone this week. However, every time I have expected to see more passive zone coverage this season, Foster turned up the pressure dial with more unique blitzing looks. The Hokies must play those quick screens properly (Donovan Riley has been beaten several times on quick screens this season), and edge players Dadi Nicolas and Deon Clarke not only have to generate pressure on Williams, but they must stay in the proper lanes to prevent Williams from breaking contain. As much as the Hokies have struggled covering deep passes, I think Bud Foster would prefer that Fedora attack with fade routes versus Williams and Switzer running wild in space.
So, about the Tar Heels' Defense...
You have to assume that, despite their challenges, the UNC offense is talented enough to score some points against a Hokie defense that has struggled with giving up big plays on coverage busts. The question becomes, can the Virginia Tech offense score enough points to overcome those defensive breakdowns. The Heels present a tempting target to try and look for big plays. Much like the Hokies, they use lots of pressure packages where they put six defenders on the line of scrimmage and press to the outside. Unlike the Hokies, the Heels have not generated much pressure (7 sacks in four games), which exposes their secondary to big plays. Virginia Tech is tied 6th nationally in sacks per game (4.25), while North Carolina is tied for 28th in sacks allowed (1.25).
Sophomore corner Brian Walker is a dangerous ballhawk on the boundary (three interceptions this season) and excels at baiting quarterbacks into bad throws. On this play, Walker is covering the short route on the same fade-cross combination route that torched the Hokies last week.
Walker presses the outside receiver on the drag, but keeps his eyes in the backfield. When he reads that Shane Carden is going to try and throw the fade, Walker drops off his man and fades back into the path of the football in a similar fashion to the ECU defensive back that picked off Michael Brewer in the second quarter a few weeks ago. With Brewer leading the ACC in thrown interceptions, Walker will be licking his chops on Saturday.
Besides Walker, the UNC secondary is a liability. It is very tempting for any offensive coordinator to attack with the passing game after watching the film. The Heels have been repeatedly beaten on deep balls or on plays where their defensive backs tackle poorly and don't pursue well to the football.
On this play Clemson super freshman DeShaun Watson get all day to throw on a critical third-and-long with UNC still in the football game. The Tigers receiver eventually breaks open, and the Heels' defensive backs don't really pursue hard to gang tackle while the receiver runs over two defenders for a touchdown (No. 42 comes into the screen late.) This is pretty emblematic of the secondary this season.
While UNC, behind solid linebackers Jeff Schoettmer and Travis Hughes, are pretty solid at stopping the run, Scot Loeffler must work to establish the running game to keep the Hokie defense off the field. UNC fell behind by big margins against both Clemson and East Carolina, but eventually both the Tigers and the Pirates defense got winded and started giving up big play to put UNC back in the ballgame. Loeffler must continue to build on last week's success and develop the continuity and aggressiveness needed for a successful running attack. Running the football will make play-action more effective, and play-action is the ticket to big plays in the passing game. I don't think the Hokies can win this football game without rushing for at least 150 yards, if not much more.
With Georgia Tech already owning a tiebreaker on the Hokies, and North Carolina also finding themselves staring 0-2 in the conference in the face, the stakes for Virginia Tech couldn't be higher. Stud defensive end recruit Jalen Dalton will be in attendance, and the chances of landing him along with the chances of winning the Coastal Division likely vanish with a loss on Saturday. The first quarter will be critical. Virginia Tech got off to a slow start against East Carolina and never recovered, but last season the Hokies were able to jump all over a sleepwalking Tar Heel team early. An explosive start for the Hokies could result in the emotionally fragile defense folding and the UNC fan base back to talking basketball season. Can Foster, who seemed to be incredibly agitated on the sideline as Western Michigan scored a late field goal after a handful of coverage breakdowns, find the right combinations to force some turnovers and generate quick scores? If there was ever a game where you would like to see Foster come up with a changeup to force a mistake early.
Comments
On that last offensive play you highlighted; what the hell was the deep safety #27 doing?
As Switzer approaches, the safety does nothing; then Switzer commits right and it's too late.
And as fast as Switzer is, at the end of that play watch UNC's #13 show up like he's shot out of a cannon!
Great write up as always. I hope the Hokies arrive with bad intentions. I fully expect a close game.
Ugh, big receivers again. 38-27 UNC
EDIT: Wohoo! I was totally wrong!
Ugh, their defense. 34-30 Hokies
You are right, the defense just flat out looked lazy in that last clip.
I think that's emblematic of UNC and maybe uva.
They get some great talent but they get complacent and under perform.
The problem with that, is a lot of it comes from the state of Virginia and they get up for their games versus VT.
Two things stuck out for me on those highlights:
In that last clip, #2 for UNC should be benched in perpetuity for that effort. That's why scholarships shouldn't be guaranteed. That guy owes UNC money after that play.
On the Marquis Williams inaccuracy clip, check out the RG #65. That dude is blocking in the endzone at the pass. What the heck was going on there? He must have thought it was a tunnel screen.
Looks to me like the RG just had no one to block, so he kept going to the 2nd level to block someone. Now, I know nothing about OL pass blocking, so I assume your point is still valid as he appeared to be blocking so deep that he almost got in the way of the route.
UNC did get called for an ineligible receiver down field on a tunnel screen today! Thanks ACC for reading!
While I usually side with the OL on blocking rules, package plays (that could be a run or pass coming out of the huddle) where the OL is blocking like a run play downfield on a read option look with a pass as the 3rd option to me is a huge problem. I see 3-4 plays a game (sometimes more see Ohio State) where there should be an ineligible down field penalty but the officials let it slide because the style of play. I also see tons of forward motion at the snap that technically should be a penalty, but is never called because of the prevalence of the spread read option offense. Coaches talk about the hurry up (which is legal) as a problem where the real problem is allowing illegal motion and procedure to take place that puts the defense at a huge disadvantage. Then, the official will flag it at an inopportune time once a game in a big spot. It absolutely drives me crazy.
I could put an hour of clips together of where the Hokies should have been penalized for illegal motion over the last two seasons and were not, and VT doesn't do it as much as many teams (Ohio State, Clemson, UNC etc)
Maybe not a good example, but watching the VT/GT debacle, it seemed like on so many snaps, the GT O-line was lunging forward at our D-line a smidge before the ball was snapped.
It was to the point that my wife was yelling at the TV to the D-line telling them to line up 3 feet back to protect their legs/knees.
I agree that this is a huge advantage to the offense, just like when for defense, an end gets away with getting a little headstart off the edge and blows up a play in the backfield and it's not called.
In past years I have heard others explain that the GT C and QB both freeze right after the snap while the QB makes his read. It looks like the rest of the O-line is ahead of the snap because they're moving while the C and QB are not. But in many/most cases the QB has the ball when the O-line fires off.
Yeah, it looked like a package play. Which made me think of the difficulty of Quinshad Davis running that route. He's got to feign a block, the get open for a slant in a lot of traffic. No wonder Williams overthrew it, that pass had a high screw-up-ability written all over it. That's a complex play call in tight quarters like that.
(Edit: yeah, look at Switzer, it's clearly a package play. I guess they are counting on the ECU CB #4 to bite on the read option and Davis to be wide open. Maybe it was a throw away by Williams. And throw-aways don't normally draw the illegal man down field penalty, as you were saying how the penalties are now reflecting the intent of the play as opposed to the actual infraction)
Operation keep the ball away from Switzer
Yep...we're gonna get curb stomped in this one. Bad match ups, bad karma, and too many injuries.
I've gotta ask... what's the bad karma? I fancy myself as kind of a karma expert, and I'm not seeing anything currently swirling around in the crystal ball.
Bad Karma?
No, that would be UNC. All that cheating and complete lack of academic ethics have finally caught up to them.
I think you got the teams mixed up. ;)
Just speculating here, but I don't think that Foster changes the pressures this week. He's going to blitz all day, because I think he believes he can pressure Williams to make bad decisions. I think I'm OK with that, especially since Bonner and Jarret are playing very well right now, and we're down two D1 D Tackles.
Our safeties can cover, our LBs are faster than blue blazes... I say release the hounds, and let's hope the offense doesn't give way the farm.
oh man and now i feel even more nervous for this game. I don't quite trust Lefty to come up with a good game plan considering we have played super sloppy the past few weeks. If this game is another halftime adjustment then we will lose and lose big. Hopefully we found a set of 12-15 plays that we can run and score first!
UNC looks extremely lazy when tackling, however the ballhawking DB is what scares me. Brewer threw that exact pick against GT and it was a no no. If we can have any ground game we should be fine, i'm talking like 120+rushing yards in the first half.. Also biggest key is to keep the 3rd and 31's at home, with Brewers inconsistency and UNC athletic ability on D it could be a long day.
Scoring early and scoring often is the only way we can win this game. If we can get a lead up on their defense like Clemson, then I'll be satisfied.
Man, there's some serious lack of faith and negativity in these predictions. I've got the Hokies, 21-17.
That will be the first qtr score.
Hypothetical:
If number 2 for UNC were covering Marcus Davis on a give to the tailback on a sweep, which one would fall asleep first?
[shoots self]
I'm going to Chapel Hill tomorrow the Same I have since VT has been in the ACC . Figuring on a very tight Game and who makes the least mistakes , Wins . I don't feel like VT has the advantage tomorrow......
French giving that big dose of reality which is good. I want my hopes way down low for this one and now I do.
If Loeffler and Foster fix the fixable mistakes from the GT game, Hokies win this going away.
Hokies 45 - UNC 17. I want the big stomp, I think we control the time of possession and score points on our drives. We get at least 2 picks and Dadi feasts on UNC QB for 3 sacks.
Hah! What a terrible prediction! It was Ekanem that had the 3 sacks!
I worry because our offense has been the spinach to UNC's Popeye defense the last few years (minus the 1st half passing game last year)
I know exactly what you're saying, but we have tight ends this year. Malleck, Hodges and Rogers( I know he's the FB) are going to be a big deal tomorrow.
That may be the worst defensive breakdown I have ever seen. Really hope it takes another week for them to fix it.
They haven't gotten it fixed in 2.5 years, so here's hoping.
I really have no idea how their secondary coach hasn't been fired yet.
See, I know we've all been anti-jet sweep for a while now, but man this play really makes me want to do it, just once to mess with them.
And this is where JC Coleman and Deon Newsome come into play...
JC Coleman??? What have you been watching?
Um what? Did you miss the awful jet sweep play that went to JC during the GT game?
I've been watching where JC runs similar sweep plays and has been mentioned as a "feature back" by our coaches so I decided to mention that it was a feasible use for a player that, like it or not, will see playing time tomorrow.
Hell, bring in Rogers to do it. He can tuck it and run or throw it. Or Brewer can keep it and pass it himself. That would really screw with UNC's defense.
I just creamed my pants!!!!!! oh man I have been back and forth and this piece of Pie right here got me back in the happy mode!!!!!
Ready to head home have a Cigar and Bourbon on the dock and wake up in bed at 1130am going wow what a night lets get the W HOKIES!!!!!!!!!!!
Up/downs this is what happens to a young team. I think we win it but will be close.
Our young team very well may be doing some up/downs if they lay an egg on Saturday.
I see a blow out victory in this one but I'm just not sure who will come out on top. With the struggles of both teams I think you see one team put up 40+ points and the other team with a rash of mistakes after they fall behind. Hopefully the script plays out where it's UNC struggling as they did against ECU and Clemson. I'm confident VT will not roll over if they fall behind like UNC has shown a propensity to but I'm not sure they'll have enough firepower to keep up with UNC if they get behind early.
My prediction is 45-21. Just not sure which team ends up with which score.
French - as far as defending Williams - are we likely to see a spy-esque type of coverage on Saturday?
I think we are going to see some of the bear formation similar to what we used against OSU.
If it is then maybe we do lose the game. I don't think we can get into a shootout. Bitter's prediction is a similar 27-24 Hokies.
Edit: meant to go up under my last post
So much negativity in these comments. Hokies win 35-17
If the Hokies can manage either; rushing for 250 yds or Brewer having no turnovers, they should win the game. If they somehow manage both... It'll be a long day for the Tar Holes!
I have FREE orange kool aid here! Getcha kool aid! Hokies win 48-13!
I don't know about you guys, but I don't think I've ever been as nervous for ACC game more than the one tomorrow. No it's not all because of UNC, but the thought of possibly starting 0-2 in the ACC after all these years just absolutely terrifies me. I just hope that the boys show up with the same fire and intensity that they did during the Ohio State game and I feel confident that we will come out of Chapel Hill with a comfortable W tomorrow.
I'm with you. There's a lot at stake tomorrow, a lot of potential strength vs. weakness for both sides, and the fact that we're banged up in key places all sounds like a recipe for one hell of a stressful day.
Stressful day? Shoot, I've been thinking about this game for days. The matchups here are scary--tall, big receivers, a mobile QB, a shifty slot guy....so many weapons. If we're loading the box, our back 4 are going to be left on an island, with their backs to the ball. If the QB breaks the initial blitz, this game has UCLA 2013 written all over it. However; if we score on 75% of our first four drives, we put the pressure on them, and they start making mistakes. Offense has to save the day for us; the defense is going to get worked.
Eh, Williams is no where near as fast and shifty as Hundley is and UCLA's 2013 defense is about 30 times better than UNC's defense this year. Also I think the defense could have a long day yes, but I wouldn't guarantee it.