http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/6/29/8851411/acc-power-ran...
Thoughts:
Looks about right to me, maybe Duke deserves to be Tier 2 considering their recent success rather than an always disappointing Miami.
Over the course of the season I can see VT jumping to Tier 1 while GT falling to Tier 2 (I still don't buy into their hype train and believe last year was a fluke), and Miami dropping while NCST rising.
How would you rank the ACC teams?
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Comments
You must not have heard. Miami is bak for real this time.
Miami has been playing under their talent level. Well, except for last year's game against VT.
I heard that Miami is for real this year. Only when they play us. When they're playing Florida State, forget it
Miami is back, this is a great news. And my wife laughed when I held onto the T-Shirts from 2004 that said the same thing. This will show her!
bak fo reel doe
^ Miami's slogan, written by a UNC grad.
It's a reasonably simplistic analysis, but it's difficult to fault it much.
He has enough disclaimers in it to account for most of what can happen in a season.
The top 2 tiers seem about right to me. Pitt seems the most dangerous of the tier 3 teams.
I have a feeling this year is gonna be a fun one in Blacksburg
I think it has a great chance at being a fun one. We just need to make sure all the pieces are together come September 7th, and it could be a really fun season
Even if we drop the opener, I have a feeling we have a chance at playing at a level alongside the top teams in this conference by the end of the season. We really just need to stay healthy and let the boys play, and I think we are going to surprise a bunch of teams this year.
I don't think a conference title is realistically out of reach this year. First time in a few years I've been able to say that without throwing a bunch of qualifiers out there.
I'm with you 100% on everything you said. Honestly, looking at our schedule, even if we drop tOSU game (that's an if still), and we stay healthy, this team is good. Looking forward to seeing how it plays out!
I agree. ACCCG should be our mark this year. If we don't reach it it will be disappointing. MAYBE!!!!.....a tough last second loss to the team that goes on to play in it but it's not like we're facing clemson or FSU or someone who I feel I can argue is a decent enough team. I can't stand GT so losing to them won't do, neither will losing to Pitt or UNC....which are the only teams that I see being able to give us any trouble but we SHOULD handle them IMO.
We really just need to stay healthy and let the boys play, and I think we are going to surprise a bunch of teams this year. Let's hope after the first few games, there won't be any surprise. We will be knocking people off the line and imposing our will on land and in the air.
Of course Beamer is the head coach and he sets the tone, but I wonder about the play calling this year. Will it be classic Beamer or new age Loeffler? How much leeway does Loeffler get? What will we get?
I think that's a good point about the play calling. It seems like we've lagged behind everyone else is regards to that aspect of the game.
I really enjoyed last year, opening with William and Mary, we went very uptempo. There were times when it was a constant no-huddle scheme.
One main factor I think we moved away from that was all the injuries and lack of depth. However, if we can stay healthy, and that always seems to be a big if with us, I would be really interested to see how much uptempo we see come Labor Day night
Edit: got rid of some redundancy
This has been a frustrating thing with us for the last 3.
How did UVA acheive Tier 3 status? WAY overrated!
I would've broken up Tier 3 into two parts like he talks about doing, but it's hard to quibble too much with what he's got. I'm a little surprised at Louisville being so high, considering he only has then as 30th in S&P+ (behind VT and Miami) but I can see the rationale there I suppose.
Duke's about where they should be- they were lucky to be a 9-win team last year and they lose quite a bit. Unless their front 7 on defense and passing game on offense suddenly get better, they should take a step back this year.
honestly the ACC is so unpredictable pretty much the only guarantee is that LOLUVA will finish in the bottom 3
Do any of these talking heads realize that Miami has never even finish 2nd in the Coastal since joining the ACC?
Bill Connelly isn't really a "talking head" in the true sense. He does statistical analysis- from a purely statistical standpoint, Miami's most recent bout of mediocrity (from 2010 on) is pretty inexplicable.
Somehow, that hasn't hurt their ability to recruit.
One of these years they're going to win despite themselves.
Having players drafted outweighs their inability to win games. They have 7 players drafted, including 2 in the first round this year. That grabs a recruit's attention. That and being in South Florida.
Agreed that all we need is a mediocre offense. We could've had it last year if we weren't down to our 3rd string RB and had all those injuries. I think we'll do better than mediocre this year.
The scary thing (for the rest of the ACC, that is) is that we are assembling the talent to not just simply be mediocre on offense, but to have a legitimately good all around offense by any standard. If that truly does come together and we can pair it with the usual Bud Foster defense, you're going to see a full bore Virginia Tech squad primed to wreck shit in this conference.
One reason I'm really pulling for Lefty to put a good unit on the field this year is that he's done so much to restock the shelves on that side of the ball. No matter what happens this year or for the next couple, the next coach coming in will have so much more to work with than Lefty did when he got here. I'm sure you all are aware of my opinion on the matter - the lack of sustained success the last 2 years can't really be fairly put solely on Loeffler. The man's worked like crazy to improve this team and I think (and hope) this year he gets rewarded for his efforts.
This means what?
Whatever metric you choose: PPG, YPP, YPG, FEI, S&P......top 20? 40? 60?
Goals need to be measurable.
I agree goals need to be measure able. To me, our offense would be significantly improved if we were in the top 40 for:
1. Points per game
2. Red zone efficiency; touchdowns
3. Third down conversions
4. Turnovers
5. Sacks
6. Plays over 20 yards
Any 4 of these 6 and we will be in contention for the ACC title
I wonder where we ranked in each of these in our last good offensive year (2011?) and last year?
2011:
PPG: 57th
Third downs: 25th
Turnovers/game: 21st
Sacks allowed: 22nd
2014:
PPG: 93rd
3rd Downs: 77th
Turnovers/game: 99th
Sacks Allowed: 101st
Ew.
Yeah, that's good news/bad news.
Good news: our best offenses can be in that range.
Bad news: our offense was nowhere close to that range last year.
I am pretty confident we don't need to be top 40 to be in contention. I think it is more like top half. If we end up top 40 then we will win the ACC.
And what's impressive is that I think the roster we are assembling offensively had the talent to potentially have a floor of a top 40 offense. If that happens....
Okay, wow. So you are saying worst case scenario, we are Top 40?
With the roster we're assembling, within a couple seasons, I absolutely think this could be the case. We are bringing in the talent to get to this level, now we just have to actually do it.
From your lips to God's ears.
Yes that is what I am thinking also. We should be able to attain top 40 imo. Take us home Casey! (Probably showing my age now dammit)
I'll go with top half of FBS in yards and yards per play (64th); top 3rd in the nation in all offensive metrics (S&P+, FEI, FPI)- which is 43rd or so; top 3rd in 3rd down conversions; top 3rd in TD rate in the red zone; top half in scoring; top half in sacks or top 25 in yards per carry; and top 25 in turnovers lost. Hitting on most or all of these would be a success.
Not sure that it's realistic to get there next year, but it's possible. To me, if we can reach these goals, this would be a very good offense.
Edit: FWIW, the 2010 offense hit on all of these and the 2009 and 2011 offenses only missed on touchdown rate in the red zone. Struggling on the opponents' side of the field, plus LB play, was the downfall of the 2009 team.
Thanks for the data.
That was 15 seconds I'll never get back.
Someone needs to edit his posts, he said that LOLUVA has a football team.
That IS what they call soccer there, isn't it?