Virginia Tech's Top 10 Plays of the Last Ten Years: No. 1

As a TKP reader, and therefore Virginia Tech Hokies fanatic, EVERY play of every game has you captivated and your emotional state hangs on every pass, every tackle, every penalty, every little detail of every game. But of course not all plays are as big as others and as your memory of the mundane fades you're left with last memories of the truly game-changing plays of every season. Here we use analytics to count down the biggest, most game-changing plays in the past 10 years of Virginia Tech football...

In each installment of this series I'll bring you two plays: one play devastating to the Hokies' chance to win, and one dominating play in Virginia Tech's favor. They will count down in order of how much each play affected the odds of Tech's victory.

For details on the method, see Virginia Tech's Top 10 Plays of the Last Ten Years: No. 10.

The Countdown

Most Devastating:

10. Boise State 9/6/2010 - Kellen Moore pass complete to Austin Pettis for 13 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
9. Miami 11/4/2006 - Tyrone Moss rush for 50 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
8. Boston College 11/2/2013 - Logan Thomas pass intercepted by Kevin Pierre-Louis at the VTech 33, returned for 33 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
7. Lamar Miller rush over right guard for 30 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
6. Boston College 10/25/2007 - Matt Ryan pass complete to Andre Callender for 24 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
5. Georgia Tech 9/20/2014 - Paul Davis 41 Yd Interception Return for a TOUCHDOWN
4. Florida State 11/8/2012 - EJ Manuel pass complete to Rashad Greene for 39 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
3. Cincinnati 9/29/2012 - Munchie Legaux pass complete to Damon Julian for 39 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
2. Cincinnati 9/29/2012 - Munchie Legaux pass complete to Ralph Abernathy for 76 yards for a TOUCHDOWN

Most Dominating:

10. Boston College 12/1/2007 - Sean Glennon pass complete to Eddie Royal for 24 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
9. North Carolina 10/29/2009 - T.J. Yates pass intercepted by Rashad Carmichael at the North Carolina 10, returned for 5 yards to the North Carolina 5
8. Georgia Tech 9/3/2012 - Logan Thomas pass complete to Demitri Knowles for 42 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
7. Rutgers 12/29/2012 - Logan Thomas pass complete to Corey Fuller for 21 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
6. Marshall 9/21/2013 - Logan Thomas pass complete to Willie Byrn for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
5. East Carolina 8/30/2008 - Patrick Pinkney rush, fumbled, recovered by VTech Stephan Virgil at the ECaro 28, Stephan Virgil for 28 yards, to the ECaro 0 for a TOUCHDOWN
4. Miami 10/8/2011 - Logan Thomas rush quarterback draw for 19 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
3. Cincinnati 9/29/2012 - Logan Thomas pass complete to Corey Fuller for 56 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
2. Miami 11/20/2010 - Ryan Williams rush for 84 yards for a TOUCHDOWN

The Most Devastating Play: East Carolina 8/30/2008 - Team punt blocked by T.J. Lee, T.J. Lee for 30 yards, to the VTech 0 for a TOUCHDOWN

In the discussions throughout this series, there has been disbelief certain touchdowns by Boise State and Boston College weren't at the top of the list, and because of that something worse than those two plays loomed at the end. I've consistently reminded the community that the rankings have no emotional or "what's on the line" component to them. For example, the Matt Ryan touchdown was crushing emotionally and likely held us out of that season's BCS championship game, but Boston College was inside our 30-yard line and just a field goal would have tied the game. From the perspective of destroying our odds of winning, it was brutal, but not the worst play to have happened to the Hokies in the past 10 years.

No, that title belongs to East Carolina.

For reasons that are difficult to comprehend, Virginia Tech agreed to open the 2008 season against East Carolina at a "neutral" site — Bank of America Stadium. At the time, the disdain for the Pirates was not as well developed as it is today, but a single play changed all of that.

When East Carolina pulled within 2 points of Virginia Tech with about 3:30 left in the game, it understandably made fans a bit nervous. But still, there are worse positions to be in than having the ball up 22-20 with just a few minutes left on the clock. A face mask penalty against ECU on the first play of the drive moved VT to their own 40-yard line. When Darren Evans only gained one-yard on the next play, it was still nothing to worry about. But when the team lost 10 yards on the subsequent play, it became obvious that the Pirates would be getting the ball back with a chance to win. A 6-yard rush on 3rd-and-19 confirmed it. The Hokies would punt with just two minutes left in the game.

Teams with a 2-point lead that punt from their own 37-yard-line with two minutes to go win the game about 66% of the time. That's a general probability. Given that winning will almost always rely on a defensive stop, having a Bud Foster on the sideline would certainly improve those odds. Still, Hokie fans couldn't be happy about the team giving the Pirate offense the ball...

Only they wouldn't be giving the Pirate offense the ball.

Punter Brent Bowden received the snap but had little chance of getting the punt off. T.J. Lee flew in from the right side and easily blocked the punt. Worse, the ball took a Pirate-friendly bounce and Lee is able to grab it while hardly breaking stride. He made the house call and catapulted ECU towards a 5-point lead.

Despite having nearly two minutes left on the clock, the Hokies' odds to win plummeted to just over 20% in a single play.

The Most Dominating Play: Georgia Tech 11/4/2010 - Scott Blair kickoff for 60 yards returned by David Wilson for 90 yards for a TOUCHDOWN

In most seasons, the ACC Coastal Division crown is unofficially awarded to the Techmo Bowl champion. It's usually a high stress, closely contested and well played game.

In 2010, the Virginia Tech backfield was a three-headed monster consisting of Ryan Williams, Darren Evans, and David Wilson — all of whom would ultimately play in the NFL (and sadly all of whom would never reach their NFL potential for various reasons). While Williams and Evans were dominant enough to keep opposing defensive coordinators awake at night, David Wilson's talent was hard to ignore. Tech's coaches used him inconsistently during the season as a running back and kick returner.

Against Georgia Tech, things had not been looking good for Virginia Tech most of the game. but in the fourth quarter the team was finally able to get some momentum and take a 7-point lead. That momentum seemed short lived, however, as Georgia Tech embarked on one of its trademark methodical drives which resulted in a touchdown and a tied game with only about two-and-a-half minutes remaining.

Georgia Tech lined up to kick off. And for the first time in the game, David Wilson lined up to return it.

The Yellow Jacket's kick was short — presumably to limit the opportunity for a big return — with David Wilson caught it just beyond the 10-yard-line. When Wilson looked ahead and saw the holes opened by up by great blocks, he hit a gear that it seemed the Bees had never seen before. Would-be tacklers with seemingly good position reached out at air and David not only sped past, but actually put distance between him and the opposing kicking unit as he rumbled down the field.

90 yards. Touchdown. Ball game.

No one else would score in the game, and the Hokies would take the win 28-21 and the Coastal Division along with it. David Wilson announced he was a star.

Honorable Mention

As a non-subjective, algorithmic driven list, there were plays that I guessed ahead of time (especially No. 1), but of course there are always those left off that made me wonder. One of those in particular jumped out at me, and probably each of you too: Tyrod to Danny Coale, 2009 Nebraska. So I did some digging.

The plays on the list were worth anywhere from about a 27% to a 37% increase in win probability. Tyrod to Danny was worth just under 22% — and wasn't even the most valuable play on the drive (the subsequent TD almost made the list at just under 26%). If you're wondering why, it's fairly straightforward: Virginia Tech had little time, and needed a TD on the drive as they were down by 5. The 81-yard pass certainly put Tech in a good position for that TD, but even from 3 yards out, a team is far from guaranteed a TD. Furthermore, although very late in the game, a TD without the two-point conversion meant Nebraska only had to get into field goal range with the remaining time (a minute is plenty of time for that) to win. Even with a 2-point conversion, Nebraska's FG would tie it and move the game back to a 50/50 situation. Had Coale scored on the play, Tyrod-to-Danny would have narrowly edged David Wilson's kickoff return as the most dominating play of the last 10 years.

But I think in terms of emotion and improbability and the low-scoring in the game to that point, everyone's subjective list would include the play and it deserves honorable mention!