As a TKP reader, and therefore Virginia Tech Hokies fanatic, EVERY play of every game has you captivated and your emotional state hangs on every pass, every tackle, every penalty, every little detail of every game. But of course not all plays are as big as others and as your memory of the mundane fades you're left with last memories of the truly game-changing plays of every season. Here we use analytics to count down the biggest, most game-changing plays in the past 10 years of Virginia Tech football...
In each installment of this series I'll bring you two plays: one play devastating to the Hokies' chance to win, and one dominating play in Virginia Tech's favor. They will count down in order of how much each play affected the odds of Tech's victory.
For details on the method, see Virginia Tech's Top 10 Plays of the Last Ten Years: No. 10.
The Countdown
Most Devastating:
10. Boise State 9/6/2010 - Kellen Moore pass complete to Austin Pettis for 13 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
9. Miami 11/4/2006 - Tyrone Moss rush for 50 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
8. Boston College 11/2/2013 - Logan Thomas pass intercepted by Kevin Pierre-Louis at the VTech 33, returned for 33 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
7. Lamar Miller rush over right guard for 30 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
6. Boston College 10/25/2007 - Matt Ryan pass complete to Andre Callender for 24 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
5. Georgia Tech 9/20/2014 - Paul Davis 41 Yd Interception Return for a TOUCHDOWN
4. Florida State 11/8/2012 - EJ Manuel pass complete to Rashad Greene for 39 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
3. Cincinnati 9/29/2012 - Munchie Legaux pass complete to Damon Julian for 39 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
2. Cincinnati 9/29/2012 - Munchie Legaux pass complete to Ralph Abernathy for 76 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
Most Dominating:
10. Boston College 12/1/2007 - Sean Glennon pass complete to Eddie Royal for 24 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
9. North Carolina 10/29/2009 - T.J. Yates pass intercepted by Rashad Carmichael at the North Carolina 10, returned for 5 yards to the North Carolina 5
8. Georgia Tech 9/3/2012 - Logan Thomas pass complete to Demitri Knowles for 42 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
7. Rutgers 12/29/2012 - Logan Thomas pass complete to Corey Fuller for 21 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
6. Marshall 9/21/2013 - Logan Thomas pass complete to Willie Byrn for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
5. East Carolina 8/30/2008 - Patrick Pinkney rush, fumbled, recovered by VTech Stephan Virgil at the ECaro 28, Stephan Virgil for 28 yards, to the ECaro 0 for a TOUCHDOWN
4. Miami 10/8/2011 - Logan Thomas rush quarterback draw for 19 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
3. Cincinnati 9/29/2012 - Logan Thomas pass complete to Corey Fuller for 56 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
2. Miami 11/20/2010 - Ryan Williams rush for 84 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
The Most Devastating Play: East Carolina 8/30/2008 - Team punt blocked by T.J. Lee, T.J. Lee for 30 yards, to the VTech 0 for a TOUCHDOWN
In the discussions throughout this series, there has been disbelief certain touchdowns by Boise State and Boston College weren't at the top of the list, and because of that something worse than those two plays loomed at the end. I've consistently reminded the community that the rankings have no emotional or "what's on the line" component to them. For example, the Matt Ryan touchdown was crushing emotionally and likely held us out of that season's BCS championship game, but Boston College was inside our 30-yard line and just a field goal would have tied the game. From the perspective of destroying our odds of winning, it was brutal, but not the worst play to have happened to the Hokies in the past 10 years.
No, that title belongs to East Carolina.
For reasons that are difficult to comprehend, Virginia Tech agreed to open the 2008 season against East Carolina at a "neutral" site — Bank of America Stadium. At the time, the disdain for the Pirates was not as well developed as it is today, but a single play changed all of that.
When East Carolina pulled within 2 points of Virginia Tech with about 3:30 left in the game, it understandably made fans a bit nervous. But still, there are worse positions to be in than having the ball up 22-20 with just a few minutes left on the clock. A face mask penalty against ECU on the first play of the drive moved VT to their own 40-yard line. When Darren Evans only gained one-yard on the next play, it was still nothing to worry about. But when the team lost 10 yards on the subsequent play, it became obvious that the Pirates would be getting the ball back with a chance to win. A 6-yard rush on 3rd-and-19 confirmed it. The Hokies would punt with just two minutes left in the game.
Teams with a 2-point lead that punt from their own 37-yard-line with two minutes to go win the game about 66% of the time. That's a general probability. Given that winning will almost always rely on a defensive stop, having a Bud Foster on the sideline would certainly improve those odds. Still, Hokie fans couldn't be happy about the team giving the Pirate offense the ball...
Only they wouldn't be giving the Pirate offense the ball.
Punter Brent Bowden received the snap but had little chance of getting the punt off. T.J. Lee flew in from the right side and easily blocked the punt. Worse, the ball took a Pirate-friendly bounce and Lee is able to grab it while hardly breaking stride. He made the house call and catapulted ECU towards a 5-point lead.
Despite having nearly two minutes left on the clock, the Hokies' odds to win plummeted to just over 20% in a single play.
The Most Dominating Play: Georgia Tech 11/4/2010 - Scott Blair kickoff for 60 yards returned by David Wilson for 90 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
In most seasons, the ACC Coastal Division crown is unofficially awarded to the Techmo Bowl champion. It's usually a high stress, closely contested and well played game.
In 2010, the Virginia Tech backfield was a three-headed monster consisting of Ryan Williams, Darren Evans, and David Wilson — all of whom would ultimately play in the NFL (and sadly all of whom would never reach their NFL potential for various reasons). While Williams and Evans were dominant enough to keep opposing defensive coordinators awake at night, David Wilson's talent was hard to ignore. Tech's coaches used him inconsistently during the season as a running back and kick returner.
Against Georgia Tech, things had not been looking good for Virginia Tech most of the game. but in the fourth quarter the team was finally able to get some momentum and take a 7-point lead. That momentum seemed short lived, however, as Georgia Tech embarked on one of its trademark methodical drives which resulted in a touchdown and a tied game with only about two-and-a-half minutes remaining.
Georgia Tech lined up to kick off. And for the first time in the game, David Wilson lined up to return it.
The Yellow Jacket's kick was short — presumably to limit the opportunity for a big return — with David Wilson caught it just beyond the 10-yard-line. When Wilson looked ahead and saw the holes opened by up by great blocks, he hit a gear that it seemed the Bees had never seen before. Would-be tacklers with seemingly good position reached out at air and David not only sped past, but actually put distance between him and the opposing kicking unit as he rumbled down the field.
90 yards. Touchdown. Ball game.
No one else would score in the game, and the Hokies would take the win 28-21 and the Coastal Division along with it. David Wilson announced he was a star.
Honorable Mention
As a non-subjective, algorithmic driven list, there were plays that I guessed ahead of time (especially No. 1), but of course there are always those left off that made me wonder. One of those in particular jumped out at me, and probably each of you too: Tyrod to Danny Coale, 2009 Nebraska. So I did some digging.
The plays on the list were worth anywhere from about a 27% to a 37% increase in win probability. Tyrod to Danny was worth just under 22% — and wasn't even the most valuable play on the drive (the subsequent TD almost made the list at just under 26%). If you're wondering why, it's fairly straightforward: Virginia Tech had little time, and needed a TD on the drive as they were down by 5. The 81-yard pass certainly put Tech in a good position for that TD, but even from 3 yards out, a team is far from guaranteed a TD. Furthermore, although very late in the game, a TD without the two-point conversion meant Nebraska only had to get into field goal range with the remaining time (a minute is plenty of time for that) to win. Even with a 2-point conversion, Nebraska's FG would tie it and move the game back to a 50/50 situation. Had Coale scored on the play, Tyrod-to-Danny would have narrowly edged David Wilson's kickoff return as the most dominating play of the last 10 years.
But I think in terms of emotion and improbability and the low-scoring in the game to that point, everyone's subjective list would include the play and it deserves honorable mention!
Comments
I was at both the Nebraska game and GT game! Both were unbelievable.
They were #2 (GT) and #3(Nebraska) on my loudest moments at Lane (behind Miami 2011). All fantastic games.
You must have missed 2003 Miami...
Guilty
I remember both of those games very clearly. The ECU game was my first as a Hokie. Sitting goal line a couple rows up, it was quite the emotional introduction to this love hate relationship. My reaction on that play:
You've got three pints of Kramer in you, buddy.
I can already feel them borrowing things from my blood!!
Nice list and overall great effort. I am not a Stat's nerd but I can appreciate the effort. For me the most crushing play is still that botched call in the endzone where Danny Coale clearly caught that ball against big blue. Oh well, crazy plays are what makes the game awesome, frustrating, and down right impossible to not watch whenever you have the chance. Labor day is getting closer...
When I finished reading about the Wilson play, I started getting ready to ask you about the probabilities of the Tyrod to Danny play. Scrolled down a bit and there it was already! Thanks for throwing that in there Joel. If only danny couldve made those last three yards. But like Power Hour above, I can gladly say I was at both the David Wilson game and the Nebraska game....I was also at the ECU game....first ever VT game as an undergrad....
I know how these are calculated, but I've got to say...I found this week to be a bit anticlimactic (which is good for my heart). Either way, phenomenal series, Joel.
*sees ECU video link*
*sees the GT video link*
*sees Nebraska video link*
My sentiments exactly.
Well done Joel. Refused to click on any of the devastation, but really enjoyed all the info.
And I will say this... I think you're dead on about emotion and having to mention that Nebraska play. Yes, I forgot about the David Wilson play, and housing it was one of the coolest moments in Lane history, but in terms of absolutely winning a game, that Nebraksa play took a loss and assured us the win.
I don't think there was a single person in the stadium after that play, including the Nebraska bench, who didn't think we were going to score from the 3. And considering how completely ill prepared the Huskers were on that series when they got the ball back, their coaching staff essentially tossed in the towel after that play. The only one that really didn't give up, and it showed on the field, was Suh.
With all the talk of running backs, and 3rd & 31, and T-mobile and Vicks and Logan's Run, etc....still amazes me that the PASS was what won that game in the end.
I still don't think that BC loss kept us out of the NCG. Even with the loss, VT finished 3rd in the BCS, LSU finished 2nd. There is no way in hell the BCS would have leap frogged VT over LSU after the head to head beating we took from them earlier in the season. The was the worst loss (points differential) in Frank Beamer's 30 year career as a coach, IIRC. No team in the SEC does that and then goes on to finish behind the team they beat. It's a nice 'what-if', though.
And damn that ECU loss stung. I was cooking in the mid-day heat nursing a brutal hangover, misery.
Not disagreeing, but BC was #2 at the time, no? Tough to say what the voters would've done.
2007 was also before SEC bias was a real thing. 2007 was such a chaotic year, anything could have happened. LSU lost twice in triple overtime to two 8 win teams.
Its not tough to say what the voters would have done. They were very vocal and very clear about what they would have done. Our loss in Baton Rouge was a weight that dragged us down over the remainder of that season. Even with a win over BC in Lane, we would have been a distant #3 in the polls. We should have been in the discussion for the title game with Georgia and Oklahoma, but we were eliminated immediately BECAUSE of the loss to LSU. They were not about to allow a team who got slaughtered in a head to head matchup leap the team that performed it.
The only SEC team to be froze out of a NCG that I can remember was Auburn, guess they didn't have the cache of their cross state rivals.
I disagree. I think a one loss VT team would have gotten in over a 2 loss LSU team. It was a beat down but it was the first game of the season and at LSU at night. Voters tend to give passes on early losses and the SEC bias did not exsist then.
Addition: Furthermore, had Tech beaten BC, LSU doesn't win the NC, the SEC streak stops at 1, Saban probably doesn't go to Alabama, Alabama doesn't win 3 NCs, and there becomes no SEC biase. Basically we can blame everything wrong with college football today on one Matt Ryan.
Ok, I'll be "that guy".
Sorry, it was the second game of the season, first game was at home against (sigh) ECU.
But your point still remains, and I agree 100%
Sorry but I gotta agree with Alum and Blackout because they're 100% correct. The destruction in BR was more than just devastating, it was damning.
Everytime I see Wilson's KO return, I'm baffled by what GT was doing. We had like 3 guys who didn't have to block anyone. #35 for GT takes the worlds worst (and laziest?) angle. It's like GT only sent 7 guys out to cover that kick. Where is everyone? Did they all go left?
Wilson's fast and we hit a few blocks perfect and it was about the worst type of kick you can give a guy like Wilson in that situation. But, damn, GT misplayed the hell out of that.
I think GT"s biggest weakness has alway been PJ's fanaticism about his pet offense causes him to neglect every other part of the game.
If you watch closely on the blocked punt, Jonas Housewright and Greg Boone are blocking each other and that dude slips right between them...that game and this play in particular began the rapid decline in my relationship with my long term college girlfriend. That sounds negative, but looking back it might have been the best thing that ever happened to me. #silverlining
My very pregnant wife and I were at the ECU game and the oppressive heat and painful loss made for a rough weekend in Charlotte. Flash forward a year and we took our beautiful 9 month old daughter to her first Hokie game - versus Nebraska! Nothing but sweet memories from that day though to confess, we left before Tyrod to Danny and Dyrell and caught the end (along with many others) in the parking lot.
My son and I were at both games. The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. Long ride home from Charlotte.
The wreck on 77N after the game didn't help matters.
Like 81, when isn't there a wreck on 77 when it matters?
Nice list with a happy ending. Looking forward to my annual yellowjacket induced heart attack again this year.
Surprisingly the Wilson return far from guaranteed a win in that game. You can see one last little spike on the probability chart at the end of the game, when Roc Carmichael intercepted a pass in the end zone to seal it.
That ECU game is one of the worst memories I have of attending a Tech football game. One, why was that game scheduled a neutral site game? Two, it was incredibly hot, So hot to the point where I almost hung out in the designated smoking area that stadium has (it had A.C.). Third, we watched the offense put up another embarrassing performance, something that was recurring until Darren Evans flourished, and the offense still wasn't even good after that.
And think, Tech blocked an extra point and took it back for 2 points. Had that happened, the score would have been 21-20 ECU at that point. I honestly would have preferred that over watching ECU block a punt and return it for a touchdown in the final 2 minutes.
Hey you know how we always gave Weaver props for keeping us running in the black? Neutral site games are how he fucking did it. Those paychecks, in many cases without giving up a home date were how we got that extra cash coming in. Ill take a few more trips to BOA or FedEx if it means we can renovate Rector faster, or we pay our post Frank staff that much more. Welcome to real world college athletics. We should just be happy we are a big enough brand that keeps getting asked to do those games, and not a nobody corporate sponsors and other teams don't have any interest in.
I am pretty sure that the team that gives up their "home" game gets the majority of the money for moving to a neutral field. This was ECU's home game, so they got the biggest chunk of the money (if not all). The same thing with the game vs Cincinnati in FedEx - that game was originally supposed to be in Nippert, but FedEx paid them a bunch of money to move it to Landover (which is why the endzones had Cincinnati's logo and they used their video graphics).
Other than that, I agree with your points about games that are originally scheduled for neutral sites. VT was paid $2.5 Million to play Boise State.
Depends. the CFA Kickoff for instance essentially splits it evenly as long as both schools sell their ticket allotments. So yea 2004, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2017 are all nice big paychecks for VT.
Right, for the games that are conceived as neutral field games from the start, the money is split. But if an NFL stadium coaxes a team to give up a home game, they basically get to pocket that money. I know that the Redskins paid Whit and the Bearcats $3 Million to host the game at FedEx in 2012.
I was assuming ECU had given up their home game in 2008, since the 2007 game was in Lane. But it looks like VT actually traveled to Greenville in 2009, so the 2008 may have been a true neutral field game where the money was split.
O sorry I misunderstood your original point. Yes I do believe when a corporate decision is made to move a game post scheduling it is more lopsided. And yea who knows, I dont particularly intend to dig through old news articles to see.
My memory ain't what it used to be, but if I recall correctly, that game at BoA was part of a 4-game deal where we got 2 at Lane, they got one in Greenville, and the fourth was in Charlotte, which was concieved as a neutral site game all along.
IIRC, that is correct.
Has anyone done the math on this, as in how much of a gain do we really get from these games? Would we be better off scheduling a home and away game with a top school (OSU for example)?
In 2013, for example, VT only had 6 home games, plus the neutral site game vs Alabama. Seems like we gave up a possible 7th home game to play that one. The 2010 neutral site game made more sense, as VT still played 7 home games that year.
Logan Thomas = Clutch. He was apart of 5 of the 10 most dominating plays. That's amazing.
Fuck Matt Ryan.
Warning! Massive douchetool alert.
It never fails to baffle me how awesome Dyrell Roberts was when the Hokies could get the ball in his hands before his injury, and then how timid and ineffective he was when he returned. I don't begrudge him because the injury was horrific. I just hate that he could have made NFL dollars and that injury completely ruined him.
Dyrell was my favorite player when he was in Blacksburg. Guy has real speed and elusiveness. Life has really dealt him a shitty hand over the years but he just keeps trucking along. He has a great attitude and determination. I hope he's doing well in Indiana.
Thought he was coaching somewhere in NY? Just had a kid with health issues that could use some help from Hokie Nation.
He had that job at ASA in Brooklyn but then in May his facebook page said he was coaching at a Earlham in Richmond, Indiana. I guess that was a better opportunity.
I wish I had a clip of the SportsCenter highlights right after the GT game. I think it was SVP doing the highlights and he said something along the lines of "Maybe David Wilson has an early class tomorrow, maybe he needs to study for a test, but David Wilson says, 'I ain't got time for over time!'"
Yet another reason why we, as fans, should be loathe to criticize these college athletes when they don't perform up to our expectations. Most of us didn't attend VT with a more than average chance of life altering injury as a result of matriculation.
Edit, missed the reply button. Meant as a reply to French's post above.
At the 1:02 mark of the David Wilson clip watch number 79 in white start to jump to Enter Sandman.
When that song plays in that stadium, you MUST jump, the power of Lane compels you...
Wait, so you've got an honorable mentions but no DIShonorable mentions??
"Does it get any better than Thursday night in Blacksburg?"
Great Clip.
Nope.
Thank you for putting this all together and spacing them out for health sake
We had just pulled into the parking lot at Nissan for the Jimmy Buffett show and I had the Bill and Mike on the radio. I have this big VT on the front of the motor-coach and this group of VT people said "Do you know what the score of game is?" Right as T.J. Lee blocked the punt and took it to the house. I remember saying to everybody on the bus "Can't we just get a god damn first down" I seem to have been using that statement for quite a few years now.