I really fear what will happen if Loeffer doesn't perform this year. I easily see the ensuing coaching chaos to become a revolving door of HC, OC and even DC.
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The most likely scenario right now is probably that this will be Beamer's last year. His health is more of an issue than ever and he always said that will determine his retirement. Assuming Beamer retires, the next coach in all likelihood will not retain Loeffler. Maybe...maybe...if Bud gets the job, he retains Loeffler if the offense is like top 30 this year. But Bud has said he would go with a spread offense.
There is probably more than a 50% likelihood that the next coach will be an offensive minded coach, so no Loeffler. Presumably if they were going to hire a defensive minded coach, they would hire Bud.
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The most likely scenario right now is probably that this will be Beamer's last year. His health is more of an issue than ever and he always said that will determine his retirement
Ummm Beamer's last year, what?
EDIT: This was not a "DON'T FIRE BEAMER" comment, rather a #sources comment.
I have not heard any reputable media outlet report that Beamer's health is declining quickly or that this will "Likely be his last season." SI reported in March that Beamer was healthy and "ready to roll." I know he had to go through speak therapy, but he sounded fine on ESPN Radio's Marty & McGee a week ago.
TL;DR - waiting for #sources to confirm that this "likely will be Beamer's last year."
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So, you are unwilling to allow anyone to discuss that this may be Beamer's last year until a "reputable media outlet" reports it?
it should be clear that nobody on this board is Frank Beamer, so nobody knows. I put in logical supposition: his health is more iffy than ever and he has said his health will dictate when it's time (ignoring his normal response that he needs a good QB and a good kicker. If that was really the criteria, he would have retired 12 months ago. Or 2001.)
If you are waiting around for Beamer's retirement to be official in the papers, then there won't be much discussion to be had about what to do when he's gone. I don't think what I said is crazy, its more probable than not that this will be his last year. Everyone said he would wait until Bristol, but he looks....like a guy nearing 70 who just had a (pretty serious?) throat surgery.
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Frank appears to be in good health at the moment, I don't think it's "iffy." Assuming nothing changes with his health between now and the end of the season (a mere 6 months), I'd be shocked if he stepped down. Sure it's possible, but I would hardly consider this a "likely" circumstance.
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Fair enough. I think we just have differing opinions on what "appears to be in good health" is for each of us. I saw an interview with him this summer somewhere and I was literally aghast. I don't remember anything he said, I was just alarmed at how he looked and sounded.
From that interview and the overall recruiting malaise, I'm fairly certain this will be his last year. We'll see.
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If you are waiting around for Beamer's retirement to be official in the papers, then there won't be much discussion to be had about what to do when he's gone.
I have a feeling the people who need to decide what to do when he's gone will know before it's in the paper, so does it really matter if we wait to know for sure or not?
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Nice guy. Spoke with him at one of those meet-and-greets at a Hardee's in the early 90s. It was drizzling and hardly anyone was there but he could not have been nicer.
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Beamer won't retire till the end of next season at the earliest unless circumstances force him to retire. It will just work out to well with the Battle at Bristol and it being Beamer's 30th season
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That example is why Whit has a plan and that its been discussed with HC Beamer.
Whit has a plan to avoid this scenario for sure - he sees that Pitt scenario (and others) as examples of poor coaching transitions which can destroy a brand.
This thread (along with a few others we have had recently) points out a lot of the key "knowns" and their relationships to each other. The writing is on the wall. I agree with another thought put out in this thread earlier: 2016 will be HC Beamer's last HC season. All of these "knowns", the relationships and dependencies among them, and the possible paths from them are what Whit sees and has planned for with HC Beamer in the loop to at least some degree.
Scenario #1: From another thread I stated:
I'm gonna say it now (and I may be wrong, but my gut says this): When Whit and Frank agree its time for Frank to retire (and Whit has a # of years max built into that to help hold this together), Bud will be HC and TG will be the DC.
For this scenario OC depends on how Loeffler does over the next 2 years.
Scenario #2: Outside New HC whom picks his own OC (and perhaps - horror of horrors) his own DC - whom may not be Bud Foster (or Bud doesn't want to work for the new Outside HC).
Scenario #3: Outside New HC whom picks his own OC and Bud Foster stays as DC for the rest of his career. What happens to Torian Gray in this scenario? I doubt he stays. I doubt Bud Foster would go for this either. Highly unlikely scenario.
Scenario 4: The new HC is Shane Beamer. There are 2 things I have seen recently that make this a possibility:
A. How the players reacted to Shane has the acting head coach on the sideline during and after the Military Bowl, it was positive in many ways.
B. The following linked video: Beamer Family This is Home Video
This is as much an introduction to Shane by the University for that role as much as it is a statement about the Beamer family's feelings about VT as home.
C. Frank Beamer is about his family. VT is a big part of his family but its secondary to his blood family.
I think Shane needs more experience, but this is a scenario that cannot be fully discounted.
Scenario #2 has too much uncertainty in it. It has the higher probability of creating a sequence of bad events that could destroy VTs football brand for several years. With the money being invested in Men's Basketball and the crucial need to have revenue increase incrementally for at least the next 5+ years in a steady manner with no falls, Whit can't afford to even give this an opportunity to occur. Whit cannot afford for the $$ wheels to fall off for even 1 year over the next several years - and he has likely made plans to insure that has a minimal chance of happening.
Scenario #3 is just highly unlikely. Bud will not stay unless he is the highest paid coordinator in football for a long, long time. I think Bud has bigger aspirations - he has said it several times. I don't think VT will do those kind of contracts.
Scenario #4 includes a media release as a planned easing of a thought into the minds of the alumni in a potential planned transition - a very real possibility that cannot be discounted. Shane needs more experience, but the majority of the alumni donors may accept this scenario. If this scenario occurs, I think Bud would leave and TG would be DC. Too many unknowns for what would happen at OC - Shane would get to pick his OC.
Scenario #1 maintains the key parts of the VT brand: Defense and Beamer Ball. These have created a steady money maker for a long time (we are in the black and have been for quite a while). Whit has to have this stability in our Athletic Department to meet his income and alumni support plans. From a marketing perspective (the "touchy-feely" part), it also has its merits. This is the most likely scenario to occur.
A good business person always has back up plans. Whit probably has all of these scenarios being worked to some level, all at the same time so that if certain events occur over the next 2 years any of them could be selected as a path forward.
I will rate these in the following order of probabilities: 1, 4, 2, 3. with 4 and 2 being almost dead even, but 4 slightly ahead of 2.
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My fear with Shane is 2-fold. Obviously, he doesn't have the head coaching experience yet, but I think he's also a bit more polarizing than his father. A TKP user posted a month or so ago that Shane wasn't the friendliest coach at a recent coach/fan meet and greet, and seemed more interested in his phone than entertaining fans (and potential donors). I've heard similar things from multiple people (#sources), and this honestly concerns me far more than his lack of experience.
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If Bud is as loyal to Frank as has been stated over the years, I dont understand why you think he would leave immediately after Shane is named HC in scenario 4. He might leave a couple seasons later but I cant see him hanging Frank's boy out to dry. TG will be a good DC but our brand is built on our D and I dont see the logic in protecting it by immediately making TG DC. IMO.
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Some really good thoughts here and well presented. I had the same idea, what are the actual scenarios (and how many of them kick Loeffler to the curb).
I would just fundamentally argue with you on scenario 3 being highly unlikely. I would put that first right now because I believe there is smoke to the RichRod fire. If you bring in a guy like RichRod and you tell Bud that he's highly valued but just clearly isn't the HC candidate that RichRod is, I think he stays on for many years, if not the rest of his career. Bud loves it here and if he's paid well and works for a man he respects, I think you can get him to stay. That said, this condition is not directly related to RichRod, whom I appreciate is a polarizing figure for VT fans. Insert Mark Richt instead of RichRod if you want. Or David Shaw. Some established HC with an offensive background. That person can get Bud to stay.
I would then rank Bud taking over as second because, like you said, it causes the least disruption. I personally think there is no way in hell he retains Scott Loeffler in that situation, but I realize there are people who don't share my concern over the Loeffler resume. But in my mind, if you can't get a Buzz Williams of football, you give Bud a shot.
I really don't think there is any chance Shane gets the job. It's just too messy longterm. Too many comparisons. He shouldn't be here now. He's qualified for his current job , but he's not so good that he keeps you from questioning whether or not he gets a formal or informal performance review advantage because of who he is. I'm a big Shane fan, but his presence makes this upcoming transition much more challenging than it should be from a political perspective. I hope each offseason he takes a 1-AA HC job and eventually comes back to VT. But I don't want him as the next HC. No. A thousand times, no. No.
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Agreed. RichRod/Brian Kelly/Gus Malzhan on offense and Bud Foster on defense would be such a killer combination, but I don't want anything to do with RR because of his WVU roots.
If Bud isn't the HC, I'd love Richt, but only if Bud stays on. I could handle a Torrian-shaped HC, too, but I'd think that would be unlikely.
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Brian Kelly is almost as much of a slime ball as Lane Kiffin. I would rather hire Mike London than either of those two individuals.
Richt is at one of 5-10 schools that has EVERYTHING in place to win a national championship (donors, facilities, history, high school recruiting, no major in state threat, etc), but has still failed to even come close. Not sure I want him to take over our program.
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My hope is that the offense reaches the 60s in most offensive categories and minimizes turnovers. Frank has always been about the field position battle. I don't think Loeffler should feel like his offense needs to score points in bunches to keep his job. I just want to see an efficient offense that shows progress from last year and throughout this upcoming year. If we finish 8-4 or 9-3 (which I think is possible) and the offense improves in just about every category and shows signs of continuing to improve in the future I would be for keeping Loeffler around for another year or two. He had a pretty hefty mess to clean up and I expected it to take years to rebuild.
IF the offense stays about the same or even regresses then I think it would be fair to cut ties and move on. My only fear is that if we continue to expect coaches to come in and fix things in a year or two we're going to keep firing coaches before realizing the fruits of their labor. With change comes growing pains and if we're constantly changing we're going to be constantly behind the 8 ball.
Is this an important year for our offense? CERTAINLY. If the offense shows marked improvement and at least looks competent most of the time then we all breathe a sigh of relief and look forward to a brighter future. If not, then we're going to be in for a rocky ride over the next several years...I fear that fielding a less-than-stellar offense this year is going to end up have major repercussions for this entire coaching staff.
At the end of the day, all people really care about are the number of marks in the W column at the end of the season. With a pretty darn good defense to lean on, this offense doesn't need to transform into Auburn, Oregon, or Clemson. It just needs to take care of the ball and score points when they're needed. I think that an offense operating in the middle of the pack nationally coupled with a Bud Foster Defense can produce the results the fans want. I also believe that Scot Loeffler is capable of putting just such an offense on the field this year.
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Yes I completely agree with this. Offense lives and dies by the O-Line. I think if our O-Line can stay healthy all year we can win 10 or 11 games relatively easily. If we have just one injury there, though, we could be looking at another 4 or 5 loss season. The coaching staff has definitely focused on bolstering that unit and it has certainly improved talent-wise since the overhaul but there just isn't any reliable depth. The offensive line, in my mind, is the single most difficult unit to rebuild and it takes the longest time to do so. That is why I expected it to take years for this offense to get turned around. We just haven't had the pieces to throw together a serviceable O Line in years (thank Newsome and Co.) but I have seen promising signs of improvement there under the new coaching staff. I think it will take another year or two of recruiting and coaching to get to a point where we, as a fan base, will be confident in our O-Line.
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7 wins or less: Loeffler is out. Beamer is also shaky.
8 wins: It's a tossup, I guess it depends on how the onfield product looked like. Loeffler most likely would stay an extra year.
9 wins+: Loeffler's job is safe.
Regardless, it's a make or break year for Loeffler. He has all the weapons to make this a special year. We don't need a top 30 unit with the defense we have, a Top 60 would suffice, but there's no excuse this year for not improving significantly.
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7 wins or less and Beamer is gone.. It got real nasty this past year and no idea how close it was but it definitely got dark real quick. Had we lost to UVA that might have been the final straw.
I think we have a shot at 8-10 wins this year easily. 5 of 6 losses last year were 7 points or less. That's pretty crazy. Imagine a 11-1 VT team going into ACC title game.. If we win that puts us in playoff talk especially after beating OSU.
At this point if we have a 7 or less wins the big thing is the Bristol game because Beamer fought/worked hard to get that one. Multiple people/twitter folks are saying that could end up being a hostage game depending on the results this year.
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It's being mentioned by some people on twitter and message boards that the Battle at Bristol could almost be holding the program hostage at this point. Basically, if the general thought is that Beamer coaches through 2016 regardless simply because of that game, then we maintain status quo with the staff through the end of next year - even if we have another disappointing season in 2015, which I hope isn't the case.
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People are taking odds on the SEC having zero teams in the playoff. I think VT or whomever the ACC presents would need to be 13-0 to be in consideration. Talking heads are high on B1G (multiple teams?) and TCU/Baylor/PAC12. Unless someone has one loss but puts on a show like OSU did down the stretch last year.
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Loeffler and Beamer are tied at the hip at this point. If the offense struggles again this year, there is no way Loeffler is out and Beamer stays around to pick a new OC for most likely one season. What kind of quality OC is going to come to VT knowing he's not going to be around long? If the offense flourishes, and we have a 9-10+ win year, the entire staff will return for Beamer's last run in 2016. If we're in 6-7 win territory again with a putrid offense...there may be huge reprecussions. I do agree, however, that this is a make-or-break season for Loeffler. No excuses, barring catastrophic injury.
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Beamer and Loeffler are tied together at this point. I think they're both here for the next two years anyway, unless they self-destruct and make this year their last. Loeffler may well have put together a decent offense here. I'd sure like to see that.
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It has been said that Loeffler would be the last OC that CFB hires. I think that is fair. Imo, if Lefty improves on is ability to expose defensive weakness, I think we will be pleased O progress. The first half of the W Mich game last year had me in tears. It was obvious they couldnt stop the run yet we passed for 3 and outs several times. To me, that showed being shaky. We should have gone into half up 3 scores and planning to play 2nd and 3rd string for 1.5 qtrs.
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I think if Loeffler just 1) stops rotating out hot running backs, and 2) watches the game to see what's working, then sticks with it rather than going with a fixed script/trying to get fancy like he seemed to do so many times last year, last year's offense could have been effective despite the injuries. If you are doing something that's working, keep doing it until they stop you.
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I find myself asking this question kind of a lot... what exactly was working consistently this year? Brewer's too banged up to throw what Loeffler really wants to call (SL said that himself, according to someone on TSL), he's got a makeshift offensive line, his star TE isn't running the right routes, his freshman receivers aren't even lining up correctly some of the time, so what exactly would you have him call? It's kind of hilarious this is what seems to be one of the biggest gripes about Loeffler, when OSU fans can't believe they have such a simplified playbook that was so easily exploited by Foster. Loeffler's definitely got the mind and finally might have the pieces to make things work this year. Let's let the man do his thing and pray the injury bug minds its own damn business before we throw SL under the bus.
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How so? He has produced two offenses that were worse than 90th in the country, and neither team had worse than a '90th in the country' talent level. This team is probably at least in the top half in terms of talent and returning experience. The minimum expectation should be a top 50% offense. If he turns out a top 15 in the country offense, I'll gladly dig into my plate of crow.
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so if we're top 40 you won't eat crow because it's not top 15?
top 40 would still be a monstrous improvement on the last two years. Heck, top 60 would match your criteria of "minimum expectation should be top 50%"
Honestly, I don't think it's even possible to have a top 25 offense this year. Even if we had Gus Malzhan(sp?) or Rich Rod, or Chad Morris or even Urban Meyer. With how inexperienced and shallow our O-line is it just isn't realistic to think that anybody could get this group to that level this year.
It just isn't fair to expect top 15 out of our offense at this stage in the building process. I think if Loeffler is able to get us into the top 60 or even top 50 that will prove his worth. Given what he has had to work with over the last couple of years that would be an incredibly significant step forward.
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When did I say that? A top 40 offense would be awesome. It just wouldn't prove that Loeffler's critics have been wrong. It is exactly in the range of where he should be, based on the talent level of our offense. I'd even take top 60.
My point was, for Loeffler's critics to 'eat crow', he would have to really show us something--which a top 15 offense would certainly do. Performing up to his players' talent level would be a nice change, but nobody should be eating crow because of it.
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If he turns out a top 15 in the country offense, I'll gladly dig into my plate of crow.
maybe I'm misinterpreting this as you saying "we need to have a top 15 offense in order to justify Loeffler's critics eating crow". But to me, Loeffler's critics don't believe that he can even produce an offense at the level that you're saying he should be able to (top 50%). Why is it not sufficient to make his critics eat crow if he does what they think he should be able to do? If VT fields a top 60 offense this year that should be enough to make his critics eat crow. It proves that he is competent enough to do what he is expected to do with the talent he has to work with, which is exactly what his critics believe he is incapable of. He shouldn't have to go above and beyond to prove that he is a worthy OC. He should just have to do exactly what can be reasonably expected of him. I think we're all in agreement that considering VT's relative experience and talent level we should be able to field an offense in the 60s this year. If Loeffler can do just that then I think he deserves silence from his critics.
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I agree with your thought process. I think our talent level now is pretty decent but it is young and unproven. Kind of goes back to the chicken and the egg thing. Is the talent proven because of the OC or is the OC proven because of the talent. Only Dork Magic can reveal the truth!
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At this point it is coming down to semantics. Critics (including myself) have pointed out that his performance so far has not demonstrated that he is competent. I haven't ruled out that he could be competent. So if he is competent, that doesn't prove me wrong--which is when in my understanding I should be eating crow.
If he doesn't prove that he is competent this year, he should be fired (Beamer's retirement and strategic issues might postpone that, but it will be to our detriment). If he does prove to be competent, so much the better. If he fields a top 15 offense, I'll eat crow or whatever else he wants. I can't speak for other critics.
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I'd argue that top 15 for VT is pretty ridiculous. We're not going to suddenly put up numbers that compete with Baylor, Oregon, Marshall, etc. VT's best total offense ranking since 2008 was 35 back in 2011. If we could only muster that rank behind record-breaking WRs, a backfield led by David Wilson, and a veteran offensive line that was the best one we've seen in the last 5 years, there's no reason to expect that we'll come close to that this year. We have playmakers at skill positions, but we still lack depth, especially along the line.
I will judge Loeffler based on our wins and losses, not based on where we place when stacked against an uneven playing field with different offensive strategies. We're not going to put up 500 yd/game to get into that top 15.
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ok I'll jump on the 'semantics' wagon with you...I agree that we're probably both nit picking a bit over words.
that being said, I don't see how what you've just said really makes any sense.
Critics (including myself) have pointed out that his performance so far has not demonstrated that he is competent
So to me, this means "Loeffler is not competent"
You go on to say
I haven't ruled out that he could be competent
Which reads to me that "Loeffler is not necessarily incompetent"
So you're basically saying nothing here. You haven't really picked a side. It's pretty easy to say "Well he could be or he couldn't be" and then tell people after the fact that you were never technically wrong.
My argument is that critics of Loeffler truly believe that he is incompetent, or unfit for the job. In my mind, if he does his job (again, I'm assuming we're all on the same page that says if he can put us in the top 50% statistically...and win games VTGM...then he is sufficiently doing his job) that proves that he is, indeed, competent and would therefore be grounds for his critics to eat crow.
I want to emphasize here that I am not attacking your position specifically but instead I am arguing to the general sentiment of Lefty's critics. You have used qualifiers like "I've never said that he couldn't be competent" that kind of set you in a bit of a middle ground where you can protect yourself from being completely wrong. I have no issue with that tactic, as I have employed it myself, but I don't categorize you as a typical Loeffler critic.
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As I was moving out of my old place this week, I realized I never once washed my mattress pad in the 5 years I lived there. My only regret is that I did not realize this two years ago, when I could have easily disposed of it by tossing it into the dumpster fire that was the offense when SL took over. VT's offense was BAD for a very long time before aloeffler showed up, and was only good when we had veteran superstars all over the field. Loeffler got here at the lowest talent point in recent memory for the program (arguably the lowest in the past 20 years) and to expect a miraculous turnaround from that was just unreasonable. No, we haven't seen a linear uptick in offensive production, and I shouldn't have to tell you why (freshmen, injuries, more freshmen, etc. you've heard it all before). This year will be the first time we'll have even the slightest chance to judge a Loeffler offense. Loeffler himself has said the first year was a bandaid while recruiting the rebuilding parts, last year was installing the new parts, this year we should be better and next year we should be rolling. So far, we've been seeing what he said would happen. I mean, shoot, when's the last time we made excuses for how good the offense looked during the spring?
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3 years is a decent timeframe to judge an OC especially in the CFB climate of recent years. If Loeffler fails again, he doesn't deserve a fourth year. It's the make or break year for him.
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I'd agree, and I think things will go that way. That said, if we lose 2 or 3 offensive linemen, I think he gets another year regardless. We all knew going in the OL would be the hardest part to rebuild, and we've at leas got a pretty good starting 5 heading out there now. We just have zero depth.
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Nothing had a chance to work consistently, because to my point any time something worked Loeffler would change what he was doing.
One example is mentioned in the post I responded to. Another is when Motley was moving the ball at will vs WF, then gets to the red zone and is taken out of the game. Happened nearly every game, sometimes more than once.
Loeffler is a better than average, sometimes brilliant, game planner. He is not a good game manager, which has been and I think will continue to be the downfall of his offenses. I'd love to seen him get better in this regard. If he does he'll be one of the better OC's around.
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"The Wake Forest game last year was the nadir. Any patience Hokies fans had for the building of a legitimate offense went out the window that day, and with that memory lingering, I don't know if it will ever come back."
I saw that and the total Homer in me started thinking, OK, now, Andy Bitter, didn't Wake Forest actually have a respectable defense last year, and then I saw this:
"The good thing is Tech has a chance to take a big step forward this year," and forgot about last year.
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I do not buy the "Loeffler gets fired without success this year" storyline. I wish I could find the thread where I ranted on 2016 and 2017 because I don't want to type it all out again.
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I think Loeffler's the guy for the next two years at a minimum. I'm really hoping he does well this year. He knows his stuff, but can it translate to the field? We're going to find out.
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other than the low number of TDs at Auburn, there are some scary similarities. Lefty needs to break the mold...increase the yards/att and cut the ints way back
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I also expect fewer interceptions, but yds/attempt stat is anemic as is the passer rating. VT threw 456 passes last year. That's a lot of passes; only 20 P5 teams threw more. But only 1 of those 20 had a lower yds/attempt and only 2 had a lower passer rating.
Ball has to get down the field more...that's on Scot.
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Comments
I completely missed what you did here until today:
17. Sam Rogers, fullback
16. Chuck Clark, cornerback
I'm still missing it...
Click on the picture, it's a hyperlink.
no I get it, I just don't think Andy was going for that...
Siege of Fort Sackville, eh? Related to the Lewis & Clark expedition?
Andy, have you released some ancient Wahoo on us?!?
I really fear what will happen if Loeffer doesn't perform this year. I easily see the ensuing coaching chaos to become a revolving door of HC, OC and even DC.
As they say, failure is not an option.
Even success may not be an option for Loeffler.
The most likely scenario right now is probably that this will be Beamer's last year. His health is more of an issue than ever and he always said that will determine his retirement. Assuming Beamer retires, the next coach in all likelihood will not retain Loeffler. Maybe...maybe...if Bud gets the job, he retains Loeffler if the offense is like top 30 this year. But Bud has said he would go with a spread offense.
There is probably more than a 50% likelihood that the next coach will be an offensive minded coach, so no Loeffler. Presumably if they were going to hire a defensive minded coach, they would hire Bud.
Ummm Beamer's last year, what?
EDIT: This was not a "DON'T FIRE BEAMER" comment, rather a #sources comment.
I have not heard any reputable media outlet report that Beamer's health is declining quickly or that this will "Likely be his last season." SI reported in March that Beamer was healthy and "ready to roll." I know he had to go through speak therapy, but he sounded fine on ESPN Radio's Marty & McGee a week ago.
TL;DR - waiting for #sources to confirm that this "likely will be Beamer's last year."
Really? We're gonna start this AGAIN?
Aaaaaaaand collapse sub-thread in 3....2.....1
I was reading along, no big deal, then I saw the comment above about Frank leaving after this year. This pretty much sums it up...
Edit: On a side note, there are a lot of good 'Abandon Thread' gifs out there.
So, you are unwilling to allow anyone to discuss that this may be Beamer's last year until a "reputable media outlet" reports it?
it should be clear that nobody on this board is Frank Beamer, so nobody knows. I put in logical supposition: his health is more iffy than ever and he has said his health will dictate when it's time (ignoring his normal response that he needs a good QB and a good kicker. If that was really the criteria, he would have retired 12 months ago. Or 2001.)
If you are waiting around for Beamer's retirement to be official in the papers, then there won't be much discussion to be had about what to do when he's gone. I don't think what I said is crazy, its more probable than not that this will be his last year. Everyone said he would wait until Bristol, but he looks....like a guy nearing 70 who just had a (pretty serious?) throat surgery.
Frank appears to be in good health at the moment, I don't think it's "iffy." Assuming nothing changes with his health between now and the end of the season (a mere 6 months), I'd be shocked if he stepped down. Sure it's possible, but I would hardly consider this a "likely" circumstance.
Fair enough. I think we just have differing opinions on what "appears to be in good health" is for each of us. I saw an interview with him this summer somewhere and I was literally aghast. I don't remember anything he said, I was just alarmed at how he looked and sounded.
From that interview and the overall recruiting malaise, I'm fairly certain this will be his last year. We'll see.
We just recruited a kickass new QB and there's not anything wrong with Sly.
Frank even mentioned he has a couple good kickers in the ESPN interview.
I have a feeling the people who need to decide what to do when he's gone will know before it's in the paper, so does it really matter if we wait to know for sure or not?
Is that anything like Ward Burton's Speaking School?
Nice guy. Spoke with him at one of those meet-and-greets at a Hardee's in the early 90s. It was drizzling and hardly anyone was there but he could not have been nicer.
we did some work with him...good folks
Beamer won't retire till the end of next season at the earliest unless circumstances force him to retire. It will just work out to well with the Battle at Bristol and it being Beamer's 30th season
That's what I thought too, but this throat surgery may have altered plans.
Yeah his health could change the plan but so far he seems to be doing okay. Let's hope he can keep getting healthier.
I agree. Plus, he would get to coach at Notre Dame.
and of course having achieved a national title finally.
Or they can Loeffler and promote Shane Beamer as he continues along the Jeff Bowden path.
I think you just described Pitt.
That example is why Whit has a plan and that its been discussed with HC Beamer.
Whit has a plan to avoid this scenario for sure - he sees that Pitt scenario (and others) as examples of poor coaching transitions which can destroy a brand.
This thread (along with a few others we have had recently) points out a lot of the key "knowns" and their relationships to each other. The writing is on the wall. I agree with another thought put out in this thread earlier: 2016 will be HC Beamer's last HC season. All of these "knowns", the relationships and dependencies among them, and the possible paths from them are what Whit sees and has planned for with HC Beamer in the loop to at least some degree.
Scenario #1: From another thread I stated:
For this scenario OC depends on how Loeffler does over the next 2 years.
Scenario #2: Outside New HC whom picks his own OC (and perhaps - horror of horrors) his own DC - whom may not be Bud Foster (or Bud doesn't want to work for the new Outside HC).
Scenario #3: Outside New HC whom picks his own OC and Bud Foster stays as DC for the rest of his career. What happens to Torian Gray in this scenario? I doubt he stays. I doubt Bud Foster would go for this either. Highly unlikely scenario.
Scenario 4: The new HC is Shane Beamer. There are 2 things I have seen recently that make this a possibility:
A. How the players reacted to Shane has the acting head coach on the sideline during and after the Military Bowl, it was positive in many ways.
B. The following linked video: Beamer Family This is Home Video
This is as much an introduction to Shane by the University for that role as much as it is a statement about the Beamer family's feelings about VT as home.
C. Frank Beamer is about his family. VT is a big part of his family but its secondary to his blood family.
I think Shane needs more experience, but this is a scenario that cannot be fully discounted.
Scenario #2 has too much uncertainty in it. It has the higher probability of creating a sequence of bad events that could destroy VTs football brand for several years. With the money being invested in Men's Basketball and the crucial need to have revenue increase incrementally for at least the next 5+ years in a steady manner with no falls, Whit can't afford to even give this an opportunity to occur. Whit cannot afford for the $$ wheels to fall off for even 1 year over the next several years - and he has likely made plans to insure that has a minimal chance of happening.
Scenario #3 is just highly unlikely. Bud will not stay unless he is the highest paid coordinator in football for a long, long time. I think Bud has bigger aspirations - he has said it several times. I don't think VT will do those kind of contracts.
Scenario #4 includes a media release as a planned easing of a thought into the minds of the alumni in a potential planned transition - a very real possibility that cannot be discounted. Shane needs more experience, but the majority of the alumni donors may accept this scenario. If this scenario occurs, I think Bud would leave and TG would be DC. Too many unknowns for what would happen at OC - Shane would get to pick his OC.
Scenario #1 maintains the key parts of the VT brand: Defense and Beamer Ball. These have created a steady money maker for a long time (we are in the black and have been for quite a while). Whit has to have this stability in our Athletic Department to meet his income and alumni support plans. From a marketing perspective (the "touchy-feely" part), it also has its merits. This is the most likely scenario to occur.
A good business person always has back up plans. Whit probably has all of these scenarios being worked to some level, all at the same time so that if certain events occur over the next 2 years any of them could be selected as a path forward.
I will rate these in the following order of probabilities: 1, 4, 2, 3. with 4 and 2 being almost dead even, but 4 slightly ahead of 2.
I'd anticipate a full-up professional search for a new head coach.
Bud will be invited to submit a package.
Tremendous success during the next two years might increase Bud's chances, along with the chance that much of the current staff could remain.
My fear with Shane is 2-fold. Obviously, he doesn't have the head coaching experience yet, but I think he's also a bit more polarizing than his father. A TKP user posted a month or so ago that Shane wasn't the friendliest coach at a recent coach/fan meet and greet, and seemed more interested in his phone than entertaining fans (and potential donors). I've heard similar things from multiple people (#sources), and this honestly concerns me far more than his lack of experience.
If Bud is as loyal to Frank as has been stated over the years, I dont understand why you think he would leave immediately after Shane is named HC in scenario 4. He might leave a couple seasons later but I cant see him hanging Frank's boy out to dry. TG will be a good DC but our brand is built on our D and I dont see the logic in protecting it by immediately making TG DC. IMO.
Some really good thoughts here and well presented. I had the same idea, what are the actual scenarios (and how many of them kick Loeffler to the curb).
I would just fundamentally argue with you on scenario 3 being highly unlikely. I would put that first right now because I believe there is smoke to the RichRod fire. If you bring in a guy like RichRod and you tell Bud that he's highly valued but just clearly isn't the HC candidate that RichRod is, I think he stays on for many years, if not the rest of his career. Bud loves it here and if he's paid well and works for a man he respects, I think you can get him to stay. That said, this condition is not directly related to RichRod, whom I appreciate is a polarizing figure for VT fans. Insert Mark Richt instead of RichRod if you want. Or David Shaw. Some established HC with an offensive background. That person can get Bud to stay.
I would then rank Bud taking over as second because, like you said, it causes the least disruption. I personally think there is no way in hell he retains Scott Loeffler in that situation, but I realize there are people who don't share my concern over the Loeffler resume. But in my mind, if you can't get a Buzz Williams of football, you give Bud a shot.
I really don't think there is any chance Shane gets the job. It's just too messy longterm. Too many comparisons. He shouldn't be here now. He's qualified for his current job , but he's not so good that he keeps you from questioning whether or not he gets a formal or informal performance review advantage because of who he is. I'm a big Shane fan, but his presence makes this upcoming transition much more challenging than it should be from a political perspective. I hope each offseason he takes a 1-AA HC job and eventually comes back to VT. But I don't want him as the next HC. No. A thousand times, no. No.
Is he saying "f***ing fatass Hokie?" Maybe its a sign.
I love that. I like him more every time it loops.
RichRod + Bud = unicorns
#GoodLipReading
pretty sure its "F***ing Bad*** hokie!
I and many others want Rich Rod no where near this program. AZ keeps paying him like they are and giving him whatever he wants he is staying.
Agreed. RichRod/Brian Kelly/Gus Malzhan on offense and Bud Foster on defense would be such a killer combination, but I don't want anything to do with RR because of his WVU roots.
If Bud isn't the HC, I'd love Richt, but only if Bud stays on. I could handle a Torrian-shaped HC, too, but I'd think that would be unlikely.
Brian Kelly is almost as much of a slime ball as Lane Kiffin. I would rather hire Mike London than either of those two individuals.
Richt is at one of 5-10 schools that has EVERYTHING in place to win a national championship (donors, facilities, history, high school recruiting, no major in state threat, etc), but has still failed to even come close. Not sure I want him to take over our program.
My hope is that the offense reaches the 60s in most offensive categories and minimizes turnovers. Frank has always been about the field position battle. I don't think Loeffler should feel like his offense needs to score points in bunches to keep his job. I just want to see an efficient offense that shows progress from last year and throughout this upcoming year. If we finish 8-4 or 9-3 (which I think is possible) and the offense improves in just about every category and shows signs of continuing to improve in the future I would be for keeping Loeffler around for another year or two. He had a pretty hefty mess to clean up and I expected it to take years to rebuild.
IF the offense stays about the same or even regresses then I think it would be fair to cut ties and move on. My only fear is that if we continue to expect coaches to come in and fix things in a year or two we're going to keep firing coaches before realizing the fruits of their labor. With change comes growing pains and if we're constantly changing we're going to be constantly behind the 8 ball.
Is this an important year for our offense? CERTAINLY. If the offense shows marked improvement and at least looks competent most of the time then we all breathe a sigh of relief and look forward to a brighter future. If not, then we're going to be in for a rocky ride over the next several years...I fear that fielding a less-than-stellar offense this year is going to end up have major repercussions for this entire coaching staff.
At the end of the day, all people really care about are the number of marks in the W column at the end of the season. With a pretty darn good defense to lean on, this offense doesn't need to transform into Auburn, Oregon, or Clemson. It just needs to take care of the ball and score points when they're needed. I think that an offense operating in the middle of the pack nationally coupled with a Bud Foster Defense can produce the results the fans want. I also believe that Scot Loeffler is capable of putting just such an offense on the field this year.
Biggest key is get the OL to being a plus, recruiting needs to continue to get better.
Yes I completely agree with this. Offense lives and dies by the O-Line. I think if our O-Line can stay healthy all year we can win 10 or 11 games relatively easily. If we have just one injury there, though, we could be looking at another 4 or 5 loss season. The coaching staff has definitely focused on bolstering that unit and it has certainly improved talent-wise since the overhaul but there just isn't any reliable depth. The offensive line, in my mind, is the single most difficult unit to rebuild and it takes the longest time to do so. That is why I expected it to take years for this offense to get turned around. We just haven't had the pieces to throw together a serviceable O Line in years (thank Newsome and Co.) but I have seen promising signs of improvement there under the new coaching staff. I think it will take another year or two of recruiting and coaching to get to a point where we, as a fan base, will be confident in our O-Line.
If they can do this in a year or two, I'm happy.
This isn't a new problem.
IMO, to put it simply:
7 wins or less: Loeffler is out. Beamer is also shaky.
8 wins: It's a tossup, I guess it depends on how the onfield product looked like. Loeffler most likely would stay an extra year.
9 wins+: Loeffler's job is safe.
Regardless, it's a make or break year for Loeffler. He has all the weapons to make this a special year. We don't need a top 30 unit with the defense we have, a Top 60 would suffice, but there's no excuse this year for not improving significantly.
7 wins or less and Beamer is gone.. It got real nasty this past year and no idea how close it was but it definitely got dark real quick. Had we lost to UVA that might have been the final straw.
I think we have a shot at 8-10 wins this year easily. 5 of 6 losses last year were 7 points or less. That's pretty crazy. Imagine a 11-1 VT team going into ACC title game.. If we win that puts us in playoff talk especially after beating OSU.
At this point if we have a 7 or less wins the big thing is the Bristol game because Beamer fought/worked hard to get that one. Multiple people/twitter folks are saying that could end up being a hostage game depending on the results this year.
What is a hostage game?
It's being mentioned by some people on twitter and message boards that the Battle at Bristol could almost be holding the program hostage at this point. Basically, if the general thought is that Beamer coaches through 2016 regardless simply because of that game, then we maintain status quo with the staff through the end of next year - even if we have another disappointing season in 2015, which I hope isn't the case.
Gotcha. That makes sense. Hope that's not the case though.
I've seen one person on Twitter use that term, "program is being held hostage to that game" Hokie#'s. So I'll take that with a grain of salt.
People are taking odds on the SEC having zero teams in the playoff. I think VT or whomever the ACC presents would need to be 13-0 to be in consideration. Talking heads are high on B1G (multiple teams?) and TCU/Baylor/PAC12. Unless someone has one loss but puts on a show like OSU did down the stretch last year.
Loeffler and Beamer are tied at the hip at this point. If the offense struggles again this year, there is no way Loeffler is out and Beamer stays around to pick a new OC for most likely one season. What kind of quality OC is going to come to VT knowing he's not going to be around long? If the offense flourishes, and we have a 9-10+ win year, the entire staff will return for Beamer's last run in 2016. If we're in 6-7 win territory again with a putrid offense...there may be huge reprecussions. I do agree, however, that this is a make-or-break season for Loeffler. No excuses, barring catastrophic injury.
I agree with this.
Beamer and Loeffler are tied together at this point. I think they're both here for the next two years anyway, unless they self-destruct and make this year their last. Loeffler may well have put together a decent offense here. I'd sure like to see that.
That said, if I were Beamer I'd take a leap of faith, let the offense loose.
Darn, just went and did it.
It has been said that Loeffler would be the last OC that CFB hires. I think that is fair. Imo, if Lefty improves on is ability to expose defensive weakness, I think we will be pleased O progress. The first half of the W Mich game last year had me in tears. It was obvious they couldnt stop the run yet we passed for 3 and outs several times. To me, that showed being shaky. We should have gone into half up 3 scores and planning to play 2nd and 3rd string for 1.5 qtrs.
I think if Loeffler just 1) stops rotating out hot running backs, and 2) watches the game to see what's working, then sticks with it rather than going with a fixed script/trying to get fancy like he seemed to do so many times last year, last year's offense could have been effective despite the injuries. If you are doing something that's working, keep doing it until they stop you.
I find myself asking this question kind of a lot... what exactly was working consistently this year? Brewer's too banged up to throw what Loeffler really wants to call (SL said that himself, according to someone on TSL), he's got a makeshift offensive line, his star TE isn't running the right routes, his freshman receivers aren't even lining up correctly some of the time, so what exactly would you have him call? It's kind of hilarious this is what seems to be one of the biggest gripes about Loeffler, when OSU fans can't believe they have such a simplified playbook that was so easily exploited by Foster. Loeffler's definitely got the mind and finally might have the pieces to make things work this year. Let's let the man do his thing and pray the injury bug minds its own damn business before we throw SL under the bus.
This is Loeffler's year to shine, and to prove his critics wrong.
If our offense shines this year, a whole lot of people will be eating crow.
How so? He has produced two offenses that were worse than 90th in the country, and neither team had worse than a '90th in the country' talent level. This team is probably at least in the top half in terms of talent and returning experience. The minimum expectation should be a top 50% offense. If he turns out a top 15 in the country offense, I'll gladly dig into my plate of crow.
so if we're top 40 you won't eat crow because it's not top 15?
top 40 would still be a monstrous improvement on the last two years. Heck, top 60 would match your criteria of "minimum expectation should be top 50%"
Honestly, I don't think it's even possible to have a top 25 offense this year. Even if we had Gus Malzhan(sp?) or Rich Rod, or Chad Morris or even Urban Meyer. With how inexperienced and shallow our O-line is it just isn't realistic to think that anybody could get this group to that level this year.
It just isn't fair to expect top 15 out of our offense at this stage in the building process. I think if Loeffler is able to get us into the top 60 or even top 50 that will prove his worth. Given what he has had to work with over the last couple of years that would be an incredibly significant step forward.
Which is why no one expects that from the VT offense.
highlandshokie does
I'll let him speak for himself but I don't think that's what he said.
When did I say that? A top 40 offense would be awesome. It just wouldn't prove that Loeffler's critics have been wrong. It is exactly in the range of where he should be, based on the talent level of our offense. I'd even take top 60.
My point was, for Loeffler's critics to 'eat crow', he would have to really show us something--which a top 15 offense would certainly do. Performing up to his players' talent level would be a nice change, but nobody should be eating crow because of it.
maybe I'm misinterpreting this as you saying "we need to have a top 15 offense in order to justify Loeffler's critics eating crow". But to me, Loeffler's critics don't believe that he can even produce an offense at the level that you're saying he should be able to (top 50%). Why is it not sufficient to make his critics eat crow if he does what they think he should be able to do? If VT fields a top 60 offense this year that should be enough to make his critics eat crow. It proves that he is competent enough to do what he is expected to do with the talent he has to work with, which is exactly what his critics believe he is incapable of. He shouldn't have to go above and beyond to prove that he is a worthy OC. He should just have to do exactly what can be reasonably expected of him. I think we're all in agreement that considering VT's relative experience and talent level we should be able to field an offense in the 60s this year. If Loeffler can do just that then I think he deserves silence from his critics.
I agree with your thought process. I think our talent level now is pretty decent but it is young and unproven. Kind of goes back to the chicken and the egg thing. Is the talent proven because of the OC or is the OC proven because of the talent. Only Dork Magic can reveal the truth!
At this point it is coming down to semantics. Critics (including myself) have pointed out that his performance so far has not demonstrated that he is competent. I haven't ruled out that he could be competent. So if he is competent, that doesn't prove me wrong--which is when in my understanding I should be eating crow.
If he doesn't prove that he is competent this year, he should be fired (Beamer's retirement and strategic issues might postpone that, but it will be to our detriment). If he does prove to be competent, so much the better. If he fields a top 15 offense, I'll eat crow or whatever else he wants. I can't speak for other critics.
I'd argue that top 15 for VT is pretty ridiculous. We're not going to suddenly put up numbers that compete with Baylor, Oregon, Marshall, etc. VT's best total offense ranking since 2008 was 35 back in 2011. If we could only muster that rank behind record-breaking WRs, a backfield led by David Wilson, and a veteran offensive line that was the best one we've seen in the last 5 years, there's no reason to expect that we'll come close to that this year. We have playmakers at skill positions, but we still lack depth, especially along the line.
I will judge Loeffler based on our wins and losses, not based on where we place when stacked against an uneven playing field with different offensive strategies. We're not going to put up 500 yd/game to get into that top 15.
pfft... logic. If we're not number 1 in every statistical category then we failed and we burn this mother to the ground. Now that's reasonable.
ok I'll jump on the 'semantics' wagon with you...I agree that we're probably both nit picking a bit over words.
that being said, I don't see how what you've just said really makes any sense.
So to me, this means "Loeffler is not competent"
You go on to say
Which reads to me that "Loeffler is not necessarily incompetent"
So you're basically saying nothing here. You haven't really picked a side. It's pretty easy to say "Well he could be or he couldn't be" and then tell people after the fact that you were never technically wrong.
My argument is that critics of Loeffler truly believe that he is incompetent, or unfit for the job. In my mind, if he does his job (again, I'm assuming we're all on the same page that says if he can put us in the top 50% statistically...and win games VTGM...then he is sufficiently doing his job) that proves that he is, indeed, competent and would therefore be grounds for his critics to eat crow.
I want to emphasize here that I am not attacking your position specifically but instead I am arguing to the general sentiment of Lefty's critics. You have used qualifiers like "I've never said that he couldn't be competent" that kind of set you in a bit of a middle ground where you can protect yourself from being completely wrong. I have no issue with that tactic, as I have employed it myself, but I don't categorize you as a typical Loeffler critic.
pfft... grammar. If we're not able to not make our point with contradictory statements then we burn this mother to the ground. Now that's reasonable.
I get the feeling you're just itching to start a fire...
As I was moving out of my old place this week, I realized I never once washed my mattress pad in the 5 years I lived there. My only regret is that I did not realize this two years ago, when I could have easily disposed of it by tossing it into the dumpster fire that was the offense when SL took over. VT's offense was BAD for a very long time before aloeffler showed up, and was only good when we had veteran superstars all over the field. Loeffler got here at the lowest talent point in recent memory for the program (arguably the lowest in the past 20 years) and to expect a miraculous turnaround from that was just unreasonable. No, we haven't seen a linear uptick in offensive production, and I shouldn't have to tell you why (freshmen, injuries, more freshmen, etc. you've heard it all before). This year will be the first time we'll have even the slightest chance to judge a Loeffler offense. Loeffler himself has said the first year was a bandaid while recruiting the rebuilding parts, last year was installing the new parts, this year we should be better and next year we should be rolling. So far, we've been seeing what he said would happen. I mean, shoot, when's the last time we made excuses for how good the offense looked during the spring?
3 years is a decent timeframe to judge an OC especially in the CFB climate of recent years. If Loeffler fails again, he doesn't deserve a fourth year. It's the make or break year for him.
I'd agree, and I think things will go that way. That said, if we lose 2 or 3 offensive linemen, I think he gets another year regardless. We all knew going in the OL would be the hardest part to rebuild, and we've at leas got a pretty good starting 5 heading out there now. We just have zero depth.
Bingo. So long as we stay relatively healthy on the O-line, I think he'll do just that.
Nothing had a chance to work consistently, because to my point any time something worked Loeffler would change what he was doing.
One example is mentioned in the post I responded to. Another is when Motley was moving the ball at will vs WF, then gets to the red zone and is taken out of the game. Happened nearly every game, sometimes more than once.
Loeffler is a better than average, sometimes brilliant, game planner. He is not a good game manager, which has been and I think will continue to be the downfall of his offenses. I'd love to seen him get better in this regard. If he does he'll be one of the better OC's around.
How about a top 50 O? That would be tits, lets make it happen lefty!
I don't think that's too much to ask for, and I don't think they're that far from making it happen.
"The Wake Forest game last year was the nadir. Any patience Hokies fans had for the building of a legitimate offense went out the window that day, and with that memory lingering, I don't know if it will ever come back."
I saw that and the total Homer in me started thinking, OK, now, Andy Bitter, didn't Wake Forest actually have a respectable defense last year, and then I saw this:
"The good thing is Tech has a chance to take a big step forward this year," and forgot about last year.
Well being scoreless in regulation is pretty terrible...and WF's defense wasn't that great.
I do not buy the "Loeffler gets fired without success this year" storyline. I wish I could find the thread where I ranted on 2016 and 2017 because I don't want to type it all out again.
I don't either.
I think Loeffler's the guy for the next two years at a minimum. I'm really hoping he does well this year. He knows his stuff, but can it translate to the field? We're going to find out.
Agreed. I think the only way he is out at the end of next year is if there are no OL injuries and our offense still stinks it up.
Too many things are dependent on an O-line with, from all reports, no dependable depth.
Same. Don't buy it at all.
13-0 and we are IN. 12-1 with a win in both the opener and the ACC-CG and we are still in the mix.
What Lefty needs to improve upon:
2012: 57% compl; 7.3 yds/att; 8 TD; 15 ints; 117 passer rating
2013: 58% compl; 7.1 yds/att; 16 TD; 15 ints; 121 passer rating
2014: 59% compl; 6.2 yds/att; 19 TD; 15 ints; 119 passer rating
other than the low number of TDs at Auburn, there are some scary similarities. Lefty needs to break the mold...increase the yards/att and cut the ints way back
I didn't even realize he was playing quarterback...
But on a more serious note, I like that there are progressively more touchdowns. I'd expect fewer interceptions from Brewer this year.
LOL...glad I could tee that one up!
I also expect fewer interceptions, but yds/attempt stat is anemic as is the passer rating. VT threw 456 passes last year. That's a lot of passes; only 20 P5 teams threw more. But only 1 of those 20 had a lower yds/attempt and only 2 had a lower passer rating.
Ball has to get down the field more...that's on Scot.
I'd attribute that partly to the lack of a running game during part of the season. I'm expecting some improvement in that area this year.
I am really excited to see Wyatt eat up a LB. we have to be able to wear down defenses this year