With only 2 games remaining in the regular season and at least 2 more after that, I found a few scoring trends that spell victory for Buzz's Bunch.
#1. Bibbs and Clarke gotta score. The Hokies are 3-0 when Bibbs gets at least 18, and 4-0 when Clarke has at least 12.
#2 Allen needs points, but not too many. 0-3 when Allen goes for 25 or more.
#3 Henry cannot be a scoring threat for us. 0-3 when Henry is in the top 4 Hokies scorers for the game.
#4 Robinson cannot be our top scorer. 0-2 when he is number 1
#5 Blackshear needs 13.
#6 The #2 scorer cannot score fewer than 12. 0-6 in that scenario
#7 The #5 scorer needs 10. (4-0)
#8 The #3 scorer cannot have fewer the 8 points. (0-4)
So, given these trends, the formula for success that gives VT the best chance of winning (scoring wise) is:
Allen has 24
Bibbs has at least 18
Blackshear has at least 13
Clarke has at least 12
Anybody has at least 10
Comments
#9 Score more than the opponent. Tech has lost the vast majority of its games when outscored (0-13)
I don't believe you. Show me your proof. You're just cherry-picking your data.
Key point, during VT's current 3-game ACC win streak, they have outscored all 3 of their opponents. This is a must if we want to win the remainder of our games.
I think scoring "trends" aren't quite true. I think that when Allen scores more than 25, he's being forced to take the scoring upon himself because no one else is hot. When Henry is scoring, it doesn't look good when guys like LeDay or Bibbs aren't scoring.
Long story short, we don't need guys to "not score too much" or "not be a scoring option." We need balanced scoring every game. We rarely win when it's up to 1 or 2 guys to score the majority of the points. Balance needs to come from LeDay, Allen, Bibbs, Hudson and even Blackshear.
The only one I really look to as a solid stat is #7. Having our #5 scorer at 10 points means we have a minimum of 50 points. We likely are more in the 70 or 80 point range and you will be competitive in most games with that kind a chaching.
Where do you get at least 2 more games after the regular season is over? Is the ACC tourney double-elimination now, or are you assuming that we'll be playing in the NIT or CBI?
well, with the NCAA (68), NIT (32), CIT (32), CBI (16) and new Vegas16 post season tournaments, it's hard to imagine a scenario where a .500 or better ACC school (even if we go 0-3 we finish 16-16) not being one of 164 schools invited to play in the post season.
I think i saw some rumblings about the Vegas16 on twitter last week. it's a 5 day tournament all in one arena, which might appeal to Buzz since his team has no real post season experience to speak of.
I think we will draw an NIT bid if we finish well. Get a few more wins, maybe make a little noise in the ACC tournament and we get the NIT.
I like the way you think...
Who's this Anybody player?
You think he's related to that guy who blinded the cyclops?
his cousin is the guy who's on first
But who's on first?
That's right!
He's Somebody, but he isn't Nobody. Definitely isn't Everybody either.
Sweet joke Dad
Thats almost too many statistics.... I don't think you need to boil it down to that many "trends" Honestly, when VT wins, they do a couple of things in my eyes...
1) Take advantage of mismatches. Example, a forward trying to guard Clarke or LeDay since they can stretch the court
2) Have a balanced scoring attack among 3-4 players
3) Commit to rebounding on both the offensive and defensive ends. We have given up wayyyyyy too many 2nd chance points.
Not based on statistics, but from watching the games.
1. The refs decide to call fouls inside rather than "let the big men fight it out". Especially vs Pitt and Miami.
2. We either get out on the shooters or they are cold from the three.
3. Our guys decide whether to go up strong, pass or pull up based on what the other team does rather than making up their mind first and forcing it.
This team is going to be a fun watch next year. And I would honestly say that if you are a higher seed in the ACC tourney, you probably don't want to draw Buzz' bunch either.
Following our 2nd loss to Pitt:
/s
If this turns out to be accurate...
The trends don't lie.
Post Pitt analysis:
False: Bibbs had 9, Clarke had 7.
True: Allen had 10
True: Henry had 0
True: J-Rob tied for 2nd with 10 points.
False: KJ had 2
False: The #2 & #3 scorers had 10 each.
False: The #4 & #5 scorers tied for 7 points.
True: The #3 scorer had 10 points.
Four and four. Sure glad Williams&Co held to that #9 trend
.
Also, no white guy who's been mentioned on twitter has ever been elected to the presidency.
The thing about these trends is, we can win even if they don't occur. We just have won when they do.
Yeah, this game really only challenges the "#2 can't have less than 12 (0-6)" trend.
1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, and of course 9
I'm about the last person on earth qualified to talk basketball (never played for a team also I never put together brackets), but hats off to Buzz and this team. Buzz has really made something special in Blacksburg. I've talked with VMI alums who grew up with a strong dislike for VT because of the old rivalry days. After they saw his video on respecting the National Anthem, they have begun to pull for the Hokies because of our coach.