All right Hokie fans, as we close in on the ACC tournament, I wanted to give you a last look at what still has to go down between now and the tournament. No team seems to want to lock up the conference yet, with several top teams suffering losses this week.
Currently this is how the Conference breaks down.
Take into account that Louisville is not participating in the conference tournament, so that essentially bumps everyone behind them up one spot. They are however still in position to win the regular season title if breaks go their way.
1) #12 Miami - The Hurricanes have a lot more to play for then I thought, with the possibility of winning their second regular season ACC title under Jim Larranaga in the last four years. They close out their season with #23 Notre Dame and then us. They are both away games so I imagine that Miami will probably lose at least one of the two games, most likely Notre Dame unfortunately. Projected finish 13-5 in the ACC.
2) #7 UNC – The Tar Heels keep making bad mistakes that drop them from the top echelon # 1 seeding for the NCAA Tournament. They have Syracuse and #15 Duke remaining. The Orange have to go to Chapel Hill, while UNC travels to Cameron. I could see UNC winning both these games depending on which Duke team shows up. Projected finish 14-4 in the ACC.
3) #3 UVA – Don't look now but the Wahoo's are third in the country, so much for the rule changes setting them back. UVA finishes with games at Clemson and then home against #11 Louisville. I think the Cavs handle the Tigers but lose to Louisville, throwing their top seed into jeopardy, as Louisville will be treating this game as their conference championship. Projected Finish 12-6.
4) #11 Louisville – The Cardinals are a pretty pissed off team right now, having their administration take away their post season for previous sins of the program. They finish the season with games at home versus Georgia Tech and away at UVA. I think they win both games. Projected Finish 13-5.
5) #15 Duke – The Blue Devils are nearly impossible to guage this season. Their last two games will likely be split with a win over Wake Forest and a loss to UNC. Projected Finish 11-7
6) #23 Notre Dame – The Irish have had one of the most difficult schedules in the ACC this season. They finish it with a home games against Miami and NC State. I think that the Irish split this. Projected Finish 11-7
7) Pittsburgh – The Panthers have been terrible on the road in the ACC this year and they finish the season with two road games, playing us and then Georgia Tech. I think that VT may surprise the Panthers at home with a good crowd and less biased officiating. Projected Finish 10-8
8) Syracuse – For a team that looked so lost when Jim Boeheim was suspended, the Orange definitely came on strong this season. The Orange get the priviledge of finishing their year on the road at UNC and Florida State. The y to the Heels and then beat the Seminoles. Projected Finish – 10-8
9) Clemson – The ACC giveth and then they taketh away, or in this case, they taketh and then giveth. Clemson finishes the season at UVA and then home against BC. Split decision. Projected Finish 10-8
10) Virginia Tech – The Hokies have Pitt and then Miami at home with a chance at a winning record in the ACC which would be a first in almost five years. Unfortunately I don't see us beating both of these teams and possibly neither but we will project them the surprise win over Pitt. Expected Finish 9-9
11) Georgia Tech – Finishing the year at #11 Louisville and then home against Pitt just isn't friendly. I think the Jackets lose both. Projected Finish 7-11
12) Florida State – Two home games against the Irish and the Orangemen is how FSU finishes up. They surprised the Irish. Projected Finish 7-11
13) NC State – Home against BC and then away to play the Irish. This team splits the last two games. Projected Finish 5-13
14) Wake Forest – The Deacons finish with a loss to Virginia Tech and then at Duke. A final insult to what seemed a prosperous season early on, Wake loses to Duke. Projected Finish 2-16.
15) Boston College – Already the first team to start an ACC season 0-16, the trend will continue when they play at NC State and then home against Clemson. Projected Finish 0-18.
Projected Standings
It seems very likely that we are going to face Clemson in the second round of the ACC tournament. The scary part is that spots 5-10 are all still possibilities for this team with the two remaining games. 10-8 could put us as high as 5, 8-10 could put us back in the 10 spot. Duke and Notre Dame sit at 4 and 5 respectively when you remove Louisville at 10-6 right now. Pitt, Syracuse and Clemson all sit at 9-7, we are at 8-8 and Georgia Tech is at 7-9.
Comments
It occurred to me other day that UVA could actually win it all this year. I'm not sure I wanna live in a world where UVA wins a Nattie in a sport I actually care about.
As far as the ACCT goes, who the hell knows this year. It has been nice seeing programs not named Duke or UNC have success the last few years. UVA excluded of course.
We just need UVA to play Michigan State to get knocked out of the tourney three years in a row. It's full proof.
I like where your heads at.
ACC Tournament Seeding Procedures
(1) When two teams are tied in the standings, regular season head-to-head results are used as the tiebreaker.
(2) If the tied teams played each other twice in the regular season and split their games, then each team's record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings (or in case of a tie for first place, the next highest position in the regular season standings) and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against
the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
b. When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall
prevail, even if the number of games played against a team or group is unequal. (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1;
1-0 is the same as 2-0; 2-0 is the same as 4-0; 2-1 is the same as 4-2; 1-0 is better than 1-1; 0-1 is the
same as 0-2; 0-2 is the same as 0-4). If the winning percentage of the tied teams is equal against a team,
or a group of tied teams, continue down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
(3) If three or more teams are tied in the standings, the following procedures will be used:
a. The combined record of conference games between the tied teams involved will be compiled. Ties
will be broken, and seedings assigned, based on the winning percentage of the combined conference records. The higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team
or group is unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1; 1-0 is the same as 2-0; 2-0 is the same as 4-0; 2-1 is the
same as 4-2; 1-0 is better than 1-1; 0-1 is the same as 0-2; 0-2 is the same as 0-4).
b. If procedure (a) fails to break the tie, then each tied team's record shall be compared to the team
occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage by a higher winning percentage.
c. If the tie is broken by (a) or (b) regarding one or more teams, but three or more teams remain tied,
then procedures (a) and (b) will be reapplied among those tied teams only.
d. If two teams remain tied, procedures (1) and (2) will be followed.
(4) If there is more than one tie in the standings, and when utilizing the tie-breaking procedures there are a pair
of teams tied, a team's record against the combined tied teams (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures)
is used, rather than performance against the individual tied teams.
(5) If procedures (2) and/or (3) fail to establish an advantage, a coin flip to break the tie will be conducted by the
commissioner after the final regular season game before the Conference Championship
Based on these rules, if Miami and UNC remain tied for the best record in the conference than UNC will win because they won the head to head matchup. Miami has us and UNC goes to Duke. They are currently tied so this last game is huge for both teams.
Miami wins, UNC wins - UNC #1, Miami #2
Miami wins, UNC loses - Miami #1, UNC depends
UNC wins, Miami loses - UNC #1, Miami depends
Miami loses, UNC loses, UVA wins - See seeding 2 above for tie breaking based on combined ACC schedule.
Miami wins UVA wins, Duke wins and UNC loses - Miami #1, UVA #2, UNC #3 based on head to head, Duke #4 based on record
Miami wins, UVA loses, UNC loses, and Duke wins - Miami #1, UNC #2, Duke #3, UVA #4
UNC wins, Miami loses, UVA wins, and Duke wins - UNC #1, UVA #2, Miami #3, Duke #4 based on UVA/Miami record vs UNC
UNC wins, Miami wins, UVA wins and Duke loses -UNC #1, Miami #2, UVA #3, Duke depends
Assuming UNC, Miami and UVA hold #1-3, Duke loses, Notre Dame wins - ND #4, Duke #5
Assuming UNC, Miami and UVA hold #1-3, Duke wins, Notre Dame wins - Duke #4, ND #5
Assuming UNC, Miami, UVA and Duke hold #1-4, Notre Dame loses, this is where it starts to turn into a huge cluster.
Notre Dame loses and they drop to 10-8 in conference. There are four teams sitting at 9-8 right now in Syracuse, Pitt, VT and Clemson. None of these teams play each other in the final game. There are any number of possibilities based on who wins and loses in this group. Needless to say, Tech could finish as high as #6 or as low as #9 as of right now. We would lose head to head with Notre Dame and Syracuse directly. We would lose head to head with Pittsburgh if we both lose and Duke finishes ahead of UVA, if we both lose and UVA finishes ahead of Duke than we win head to head. We would win head to head against Clemson. If we both win, we would win head to head against Pitt because of our record against Miami.
Based on opponents right now I see this group finishing like this:
ND #5, Pitt #6, Syracuse #7, Clemson #8, Virginia Tech #9
Notre Dame gets NC State, who needed a buzzer beater to beat BC last night.
Pitt is at Georgia Tech (GT did have its four game winning streak snapped last night by Louisville)
Syracuse is at Florida State (FSU upset ND their last time out but had lost their previous five straight, three by double digits, one of those to Syracuse)
Clemson is at BC (they have lost three in a row and five of their last seven but one of those two wins was a ten point win over BC)
Virginia Tech home against Miami. I just dont see us beating this team. They come in having beat UVA, Notre Dame and Louisville. They have a regular season championship on the line and they have senior leadership on the team.
Beyond the #9 spot, FSU and Georgia Tech are both 7-10 right now in conference so however their games go will determine #10 and #11.
FSU wins, GT wins - GT #10 and FSU #11
FSU loses, GT wins - GT #10 and FSU #11
FSU wins, GT loses - FSU #10 and GT #11
NC State is #12
Wake Forest is #13
Boston College is #14
Louisville is #15/DQed
via GIPHY
Stuff like this is why lawyers with math/technical backgrounds make big $.
The running joke between me and my buddies was about how insane/creepy this guy would look without the beard. Remove all the hair, and were not just looking at a completely bald human, were looking at the model zombie citizen from 'I Am Legend'
The beard is what makes this guy look any bit approachable, you can see his inner creepiness just by looking at those beady eyes and whitened teeth. I can only imagine how many people fighting DUIs are still locked up in his basement.
Dang!!
via GIPHY
via GIPHY
Until we Lose I Believe we will WIN!
Here is an article I found showing the bracket and seeding if the season ended now (or as of yesterday I suppose)
excellent. So now we know how the seeding will play out, if every game remaining in the regular season is cancelled due to weather./s
Mostly posted for the bracket, easier to visualize possible match-ups that way, at least for me
good point. have a leg
This just goes to show what kind of difference it is playing as seed 8/9 versus 6/7. GA Tech and FSU or BC sound so much more appealing than Cuse.
So in this scenario we would need to beat Cuse, UNC, Duke, and then Miami or Virginia to win the tournament. If we even just made it to the final would we be on the bubble of the big dance?
Well it looks like we'll know by tomorrow around 6 pm where we stand. All 4 tied teams have their last games before the tournament starting between 12 and 4 pm.
6-2 at home during ACC play (#2 UNC close, #16 Louisville)
This right here is what gives us a fighting chance today.
I want Shane Henry to get 3 putback dunks early on senior night. Shellshock Miami before the first media timeout, and never look back.
If we can play our game, and thwart their's, like we did in the first half of the last time we played them away, feed on the positive vibes of the Cassell, and do it for the entire game, it could be another VT nail biter win! Plus, if we can get more from Clarke than we did in the previous, that bodes well for us. I'm optimistic, especially if we get the rockin' crowd our team deserves - GO HOKIES!
I think the rational thinking says that, in the end, their bigs just destroy us on the boards therefore giving them more "2nd chance opportunities". UM wins by simply being efficient, and I think that is a bad recipe for us.
However... last game... Hokies have been playing well... The team usually has a run in them during a big game like this... Who knows. I do think that if we don't actually play one of our big men, we have no chance of winning this game.
So we need to win, and Pitt and Syracuse need to lose to make it to the 7th seed I think
Looking pretty good so far. But if we are tied with Clemson we would get the #6 because of head to head, right?
Yes we would likely get the 6th seed with a win and both Pitt and Syracuse losing. We would also likely get the sixth seed if we win and Syracuse loses because I believe the records there would be Tech 2-1, Clemson 1-1, Pitt 1-2
Pitt holds up their end of the bargain.
And Cuse loses. IT'S HAPPENING.
Well Syracuse loses too so now our two possibilities are 6th seed if we win and 9th seed if we lose because we lose three way tie of Pitt Syracuse and us. Pitt would be 7th at 3-1, Syracuse and Tech finish 1-2, then Tech loses head to head with Syracuse.
Nice to be proven wrong here. Played just about a perfect game tonight and drew just enough whistles to keep Miami at bay. Nice moment there for Henry. Way to go boys.
I am glad you were wrong. This has to lock us into the NIT, but I still think we need to win the ACC tourney to make the big dance. I would like to see us get a home game for the NITs though, so need to get the win in our first tourney game and hopefully a second or a really close loss.
Wow, this team is really playing well. Would love to see more from KBJr, but he's just a freshman. On the flip side, Justin Robinson has turned into a man over the last 5 games!
So assuming we get past the winner of FSU/BC we'll either be playing UVA or Miami. I'll take that matchup.
Additionally, we'll have already beaten everyone on our half of the bracket at least once this season.