I am really excited about this year.
After years of frustration watching Virginia Tech football lose it's identity on offense (and special teams), and losing games that could have been won, significant changes have finally been made.
The reaction to the new coaches was 'thank GOD' at first; then 'who are these guys?' and then 'I was expecting a little bit more at the Spring game....'
But slowly, as we have gotten some looks from recruits that we never would have before, and have expanded our recruiting footprint with apparent success, the Hokie faithful are starting to develop some love for the new staff; and hope that the new inspires the old to get back to Hokie football.
I personally want to see a lot of 4 yards and a cloud of dust with occasional vertical strikes ala 'Andre Davis is open deep!' I want to see opponent's kickers lying on their backs, craning their necks to see one of our boys recover the blocked punt for a score. I want to see Hokie defenders flying around again with seeming abandon causing fear, disruption, and confusion as Coach Foster smiles on the sidelines knowing that he knew what was going to happen once again........
But, I have to temper this with reality. This is unfamiliar territory for the Hokies. The last time the Hokies suffered a season similar was 1992 when we went 2-8-1 with losses to ECU, Southern Miss, and UVA, amongst others, prompting coaching changes. We changed BOTH offensive and defensive coordinators, and started the rise to new levels of success never seen before at Lane stadium. The Hokies went 9-3 in 1993 and formally introduced Beamer Ball to anybody watching the Independance Bowl, decimating Indiana in the last moments of the first half. We went 8-4 in 1994, but the season that changed it all was 1995-the promotion of one Bud Foster to Co-defensive Coordinator and shocking the football establishment with our 28-10 destruction of THE university of Texas on prime-time national television.
We all know the rest, and the Hokie faithful have enjoyed a wave of success; but last year was a reminder of how fragile success can be.
So, now that the Hokie train is back on track, I'm ready to enjoy another 10 win season....right?
But how realistic is this expectation?
I looked back at the top 10 winningest programs from 2000-2009 for some guidance:
#10-our beloved Hokies. We know all this. Besides going 8-4 in 2001 and 8-5 in 2003, the Hokies have been solid and blessed.
#9-Georgia. The Dawgs' worst period started in 2009. They went 8-5 causing a change in DC from Willie Martinez to Todd Grantham. There were also off-season issues with multiple arrests, allegations of agents, and the firing of the AD for a DUI. The next year was worse: 2010 they went 6-7 with a loss to Central Florida in the Liberty Bowl! But Georgia recovered in 2011 going 10-4.
#8-LSU. The Tigers have been very consistent, but had their worst period starting in 2008 when they went 8-5. They lost Bo Pelini in the off season and had put in Doug Mallory as a replacement. He lasted a year and was replaced by John Chavis to help the 2009 Tigers go 9-4, then 11-2 in 2010.
#7-TCU. Yep, kinda surprising, but here they are. They are the #7 most successful program from 2000-2009, even though they went 5-6 in 2004. This was Gary Patterson's 4th year as HC, but only the first year for Dick Bumpas as DC. They rebounded to go 11-1 in 2005, helped by the change from Conference USA to the Mountain West.
#6-Florida. The Gators went 8-5, 8-5, 7-5 from 2002 to 2004 with the great Ron Zook experiment. But then Urban Meyer led them to 13-1 in 2009 with a senior Tim Tebow under center. They lost Charlie Strong in the off season and went 8-5 2010 again with new DC Teryl Austin, and then lost Urban Meyer to go 7-6 in 2011 with 1st year coach Will Muschamp. They bounced back to 11-2 in 2012.
#5-USC. 1999 6-6, 2000 5-7 with the dismissal of Paul Hackett. The Trojans hired Pete Carroll to go 6-6 in 2001, but then went 11-2 in 2002.
#4-Ohio State. The Buckeyes went 6-6 in 1999 causing John Cooper to let go 18 year DC Fred Pague. It only gave Cooper one more year as the 2000 team went 8-4 and Jim Tressel was hired. After a 7-5 2001 season, the Buckeyes went 14-0 in 2002.
#3-Oklahoma. They have been consistent with only 2 sub-par seasons: 2005 they went 8-4 prompting a change in their recruiting coach. The Sooners went 8-5 also in 2009, but then went 12-2 in 2010 with the same coordinators in place.
#2-Texas. After a great run with a 13-1 season in 2009, the Longhorns have fallen on hard times going 5-7 in 2010, 8-5 in 2011, and 9-4 in 2012. The OC Greg Davis resigned when other coaches were leaving, and DC Will Muschamp left the ship to become UFla's coach after the 2010 regular season.
#1-Boise State. Yes, Boise State was the winningest football program from 2000-2009 going 112-17 or winning almost 87% of their games. They 'suffered' through an 8-4 season in 2001 under 1st year HC Dan Hawkins and OC Chris Peterson. They rebounded to 12-1 in 2002, and by 2006, Peterson was HC.
SO.....what does all of that mean?
It is RARE to have multiple 10+ win seasons. Looking at that, it's hard to blame Beamer for trying to keep the mojo rolling despite some glaring issues.
Even the top programs suffer bad seasons. And when they do, typically, it triggers some deserved introspection and usually coaching changes. And, within a FEW years, the ship is righted and the top programs return to glory.
So while I want and hope that the Hokies bust out a season of double-digit wins, it is not likely that it will happen; it usually take 1-2 years with the new staff in place.
And, if it doesn't happen in that time period, usually the head coach is the fall guy.....
I appreciate your attention, and any comments are welcomed. Go Hokies!
Comments
I couldn't agree more. It's so easy to get excited about the upcoming season with all the changes that have been made, but I didn't expect us to jump right back to winning ten games a season (but believe you me, I'd be estatic if we did) While the new coaches are on the right track as far as recruiting goes, I think they're setting us up for some STRONG teams in the future (I'm talking 2014-2015) ...but here's hoping for the best anyway!!
No revolution started without a few shots. None were done overnight, either.
The new era of Virginia Tech football is exciting. We are now an SEC team, and have the corps to prove it.
Can we hang with Bama? Yes. We've got talent.
Will we win? Maybe not. But Reese is right. 2014 might very well be something special.
For now, I'm going to sit back and be excited about Hokie football again. Fuck the nay Sayers, we are here to win.
#cometowork
you mean A&M wants to be us, were actually the older school lol
Hell maybe we can just switch places, ya know show up to their games, nobody will notice the manziel became 6'6 250lbs and black right?
This reality stuff is for the birds. But in reality I agree but honestly looking at the sched not winning ten games will be disappointing. we may not be all world but this schedule is definitely set up for a quality season. Not gonna need to set the world on fire to win on offense. 25-28 points will win all but 2 or 3 reg season games
Reality says that a team from middle of nowhere VA with no real football history can't play for a national championship. Reality says that team can't have a lead in the 4th quarter going up against the mighty Florida State. Reality says that team can't knockoff Texas in the Sugar Bowl. Reality says that team can't have a lead in the 4th quarter against Alabama. Reality says that team can't win both games of a home and home series against both Nebraska and aTm. Reality says that no team can own their in state rival for a decade.
But here we are anyway.
and that is why college football is the greatest sport on the plan, the unexpected is the norm. and anything can happen.
That's why we Invent the Future. Because fuck reality.
I think the biggest thing that will affect this season is the team mindset. For years I watched Hokie football tear up other teams. They out-played every opponent, they always had more energy, and most importantly they always believed they could win. I watched that slowly transition into lazy plays, missed assignments, and overall complacency. They seemed to believe they would win 10 season just because they have done it before. The team seemed stagnant and watching them, I could literally feel it through the TV or at the stadium....the energy was lost. With the exception of a few games here and there, the 2009 season was the last decent season, but even still...the complacency had begun.
A couple things...punt blocking and kick blocking has entered a new era: schemes are more complex and harder to break down in order to get to the kicker and make a block. If a player does get to a kicker, they usually have to take a poor angle which can lead to penalties making the players more tentative to go after the kicker (spread schemes). Until someone (hopefully the Hokies) figures out how to break these new schemes, I doubt we will see a lot of special teams blocks. That being said, special teams needs to be stronger...longer kick offs, more accurate field goals and long high booming punts.
What was missing these past few years, feels like it is back...that is why I believe this team can buck reality and tradition and get back to being a 10 win team. The atmosphere, the feeling of something powerful is working inside this team. There is fire, there is anger, there is the long-missed chip on the shoulder. Tech is ready to attack and while Alabama is a fierce opponent, there will be none tougher. If we can play them tough (regardless of outcome) we should be able to rock just about every other opponent we face. Discipline. Tech needs to be able to come out every game and execute from the coin toss all the way to the final whistle. NO plays are taken off, every yard counts...I feel like that mindset is back.
To your point about special teams: I don't think we'll see many blocked kicks anymore. VT was one of the best in the business for a long time when it came to big plays on special teams, and our focus on that area has caused a shift in approach for the teams we play against. I can't imagine seeing another game like Macho's Destruction of Clemson anytime soon. I'm ok with this, even though I love blocked kicks. More recently, we've had other teams take advantage of our aggression on special teams, and it feels like we're more susceptible to trick plays in the kicking game. I'm not ok with this. Nowadays, we should be focusing on being the most fundamentally sound special team in the country. If we don't get caught on fakes, never rough the kicker, and create good returning opportunities (while not allowing them), I'll be a happy special teamer.
I agree, I would rather see the Beamerball name stand for consistent, fundamental execution than necessarily risky big plays. I am beyond disappointed when we have a kick blocked, much more than the excitement from blocking one ourselves.
It's also important to remember that our skill players used to make up our special teams as well. We more more athletic on special teams than anyone in the country by miles.
It's tough to do that now that we are a nationally recognized program. Big recruits don't want to risk career threatening injuries going after a punt. And I'm with you VTCPA, having our own kicks blocked is way worse than not blocking the other teams.
I'd say the opposite is true, I think more programs are using more first-teamers on both the punting and punt return team, since we (among others) showed how much of an impact it could have. I know for a fact we still have a couple first-teamers going after punts.
I haven't seen us put a starting RB or WR out there to go after a punt in awhile.
There was a day when David Wilson, Boykin, Roberts, and others would be on the kick block team and not returning them. I understand why we don't do it anymore and while I would love to see it again, I don't miss it too much.
I believe Kyle Fuller and Tony Greggory (close enough to a starter with last years rotation) were both on kick block teams in the last year or two.
We also need an exceptionally good gunner, like Tweedy.
Zach Luckett just raised his hand
From Spring Game, it looks like they're gonna send Demitri after the punter several times this year
WYATT TELLER, that guy is going to block a kick while at tech. mark my words
Have we started #tellerforheisman yet? Why is this not a thing?
Absolutely. It feels like some our kicks that got "blocked" were really bad snaps or under par execution by the punter than a true block. (Boise state is an exception)
i always just shook my head at people who poo-pooed all the conference titles and 10/11 win seasons. frank is one of the best in the business. we're lucky to have him.
I hope you don't misconstrue what I said as poo-pooing 10 win seasons with conference titles. I am not, I was ecstatic about every one that we earned. What I am saying is that even in those seasons the energy and feeling was different. It felt fragile, and it felt like at any given moment we were beatable. Too many close games that shouldn't have been close, losses that shouldn't be losses, etc. For the past 3-4 years I wondered when the fall would happen. I hoped it didn't but based on the feelings I had, I wondered when it would happen.
oh no, i was commenting more on shoog's last paragraph. honestly i just kinda buzzed through your post. now that i read it, i agree completely.
I feel we can get 10 wins this season. After #BeatBama our schedule sets up nicely since we don't have to play FSU or Clemson until the ACCCG. Our hardest games will be divisional games with GT, UNC, the U, and UNC. The players will remember what UNC and the U did to us last year and will have a chip on their shoulder. On the other hand, Duke and GT will as well. For some reason we always play those guys a little to close for my comfort and they're not getting any worse in football with the exception of everybody finally figuring out GT's offense. If our offense had been better last year no way we go to overtime with GT. So, as I stated earlier in a different post it's very likely we could lose to bama, run the table and if the chips fall right still be in contention as a top 3 school. However, if we go 8-4 or 9-3 in the regular season I will not be suprised. I will be suprised if we do worse than 8-4.
I think we will learn a lot about the mentality of this team after #BEATBAMA. Players and fans alike have been focusing really hard on that one game. There is no way we dont show up playing hard against them. However, and lets just admit it here, we may either get a huge confidence boost or an even larger kick in mouth. Either way, the mentality and approach we show against WCU and ECU the two weeks after will, I think, define how the rest of the season goes.
I just hope we dont get too high and cocky or too low and stagnant. I think thats been the problem in the past, especially the former. If we #BEATBAMA, or at least give them a game, and I am very confident we will, then we will begin to get some more attention and praise than we have so far this off-season. I just hope our guys keep that underdog mentality all season long, no matter what. Thats when I believe we are at our best, when we only hear the doubters. Remember after the JMU game? We had a point to prove that season.
This team is more than capable of winning the Coastal if they keep the right approach. As much as everyone has put down our schedule for its lack of marquee matchups (with the exception of Week 1 of course) I think it will lead to a very exciting season for us and give us an opportunity to climb up the rankings.
If we play a great game and play bama tough and still lose, that has to be portrayed as a win for a team that struggled so massively. On the other hand if we pull a Boise St. and let 17 stupid points go up in the first quarter...then comeback and come so close to winning, but still lose. Then, that will be a major kick in the mouth.
Agreed. A loss, while never being a good thing, wouldn't necessarly by that bad a thing in this case. We just can't let one game determine our confidence for the rest of the season. Sometimes it helpful to step back and realize it is just one game in a long season.
This thread:
...sometimes we just want to drink the Kool-Aid.
Realistically I'm looking at this as a complete coaching overhaul, where the benefits start to pay off in year 3. Anything before that is gravy. If we top 8-4 this year we've done a great job.
In my heart however it's #BURNDOWNBAMA #BEATEVERYONE
I see what you're saying, but you're being completely unfair to Bud Foster and the defensive players. If that side was overhauled as well, then yes I agree we need to wait. But VT's current front 7 is the best since 2000. Any sort of offense that protects the ball will be sufficient. Also, don't forget that VT's QB was once projected to be the #1 draft pick in 2012 draft. It shouldn't be terribly difficult to get LT3 to elite levels. Enter Loeffler.
VT's biggest questions for 2013 will be getting cohesion on the O-line and finding playmaker's in the skilled positions. Enter Grimes, Coles and Edmunds.
I'm not saying they're going to #BeatBama, but an 8-4 record, (only 2 wins better than 2012 when FSU and Clemson were on the schedule) should be the absolute lowest of expectations. You should expect 9-10 wins and a coastal title.
This so much of this. There is a lot of talent on this team. Talent want the issue last year in my opinion. Play calling and effort were much bigger issues. And honestly I get being "realistic" but why not expect the ceiling. Higher expectations are a great thing. And if you get disappointed by a game well that's part of being a real fan. I hate the fan that's always negative going into these big games or seasons. You will never avoid being disappointed at some point as a fan so why not enjoy it more and drink all that koolaid
Amen...DJ Coles is going to knock some LB/DB/Safety out....multiple times. Dude looks huge.
Also, as a fan base I still think we should keep high expectations; it only makes us better. I don't care about last year, I want them to want to play in Charlotte and beyond.
Normally, I'd say yes, but our defense hasn't forced turnovers like it used to. Our defense hasn't even scored since 2010. I'm confident in Bud, but our defense needs to become a little more 'clutch' and make BIG plays at BIG times (see Exum against UVA, Roc against GT a few years back, etc.). Using boxing as an analogy, I feel like our defense can force a knock down, but not a knock out. If we want to beat Bama, UNC, Miami and GT (realistically at least two of which we need to beat to win 10 games), we need to get knock outs. We have to stop most 3rd downs, and all 4th downs. We have to prevent teams from making sustained drives. At the bare minimum we need to force field goals, not touchdowns.
10 wins and a coastal title is a perfect goal for this team/program, but I'm not sure it's a fair expectation this year.
With an OK offense and a good defense I expect 8-9 wins. With a fundamentally sound offense and a good defense I expect 9-10 wins. With a fundamentally sound offense and a great defense ('07 quality) I expect 10-11 wins. If our offense and defense both exceed expectations, I expect 11-12 wins.
There's just too much unknown right now, I do think that after #beatbama we'll know exactly how good our team is.
I am expecting a good to great defense. I'm using the 2011 season as my basis for arguing a great defense in 2013 (essentially the same front 7, and now in 2013 some backfield depth). But you're absolutely right, the turnovers were not there in 2011 or 2012, as compared to years past. For the 2013 defense to be great, Gayle and Nicolas need to be absolute beasts. If they get to the QB, turnovers will happen. I don't know, I guess I just have this gut feeling that Gayle and Nicolas will be great this year.
The defense was back for the second half of last year. No way we keep it close against FSU, or beat LOLUVA or Rutgers without Foster changing to his aggressive scheme. But those last two games were defensive domination, lunchpail-style.
Yeah, I agree, if last year's team had played this year's schedule we might have ended up 8-4. Fact: of the teams we're playing this year, we played 7 last year and went 4-3 against them.
Austin Peay is replaced by Western Carolina, and Bowling Green is replaced by Marshall, both of which are downgrades, if anything, so right there are our 6 wins.
3 teams we lost to last year are being replaced on this year's schedule. Clemson is being replaced by Maryland, which should be a W. Cincinatti is replaced by ECU, which should be a W. Pitt became a conference opponent, meaning that FSU is essentially replaced by Bama, which we can't quite count as a win (yet). So, there are 2 L's that would probably have been W's last year.
As for my expectations for this year:
Our defense lost us the game against UNC last year. That doesn't happen again this year, since our defense is essentially a year older and wiser. The Pitt game was an epic failure on all parts except punt returns, which I also think doesn't happen again this year. While I'm not exactly "expecting" a coastal title, I think it is a realistic goal. I am expecting a 10-win season, if not in the regular season then definitely in the bowl game, since any bowl we play in at 9-3 isn't likely to be against a top-tier opponent.
One thing to add: we were 40 seconds away from Charlotte last year. There's no reason that it shouldn't be a reasonable goal this year.
I definitely dont see Marshall as an easy win. I follow Marshall as closely as Tech and they could be the real deal this year. A superstar O and a hopefully better D means they will match up well with the Hokies. The Herd could be undefeated and riding high so I think its unwise to already be counting wins, especially with the offense we all saw at the spring game. I cannot wait for this series to be over so I can go back to hoping Marshall and Tech win all their games again. And I pull for the Hokies to win
True, I should have said that we'll really see stuff starting to happen in a big way on the offensive side of the ball in a year or two. It's going to take a while for Grimes to really get the line personnel that he needs for us to be consistently nasty at running the ball, and from that all good things flow. I do think it's good that we're not seeing the usual load of crap about, "Trust us folks, *this year* the offense is going to have it together." I had given up believing anything about the offense, especially the O-line.
Now, the Defense? Bud Foster's credit is always good with me. If Bud Foster tells me he's going to pull up to my house in an aircraft carrier packed full of supermodels at 8 AM tomorrow then I'm packing my swimsuit and clearing my fucking calendar because that shit will be on time, as promised.
better than the martin brothers hall and adibi?! haha its a good front 7 but god damn i loved those guys
at the lb spots i dont know, but honestly the dl this year is better than that, id take gayle over martin any day
tough to say though, hall and adibi were incredibly talented and I would take the Dline we have now over that Dline but its gonna be tough to top that LB corps. I think we were top 5 in yards allowed that year
8-4 means that we lose literally all of our tough games this year (Bama, UNC, Miami, and GT). 8-4 should definitely be the minimum expectation.