If you're new to this, Pierson and I make fake gambling lines. They're fake primarily because we're bad at coming up with them, and no one in their right mind would ever trust us as bookies. If you're interested in placing money on any of these, please mail cash to Joe. You'll never win, but you will make a nice contribution to TKP.
Week one. Any other year this would be just a game against another overmatched FCS foe. But this also kicks off the start of the Justin Fuente era, the Jerod Evans era, the spread offense in Blacksburg era, and the fight back to relevancy era. A lot of beginnings folding onto themselves, which also brings along a ton of unknowns.
We did our best to come up with interesting numbers for the Hokies' first matchup against Liberty. But with our limited knowledge of the team and its progress through the offseason, these could end up looking comical in a month.
On to the (fake) lines!
Over/Under: 2.5 QBs used by Justin Fuente
Brian: I'll hit the under, because I don't think there was ever really a three-man race for starting quarterback. Remember two years ago when Michael Brewer came in to compete against Mark Leal? Right as Brewer took control, Scot Loeffler let it slip that Brenden Motley also had a chance to grab the starting spot. It didn't matter whether or not it was true, he just wanted Brewer to keep pushing and not feel comfortable.
It was pretty clear Evans has always been the guy. Fuente and Brad Cornelsen didn't bring him to Blacksburg on a whim, but definitely wanted to keep him on his toes as August practice wore on. I bet we'll see Evans for three quarters and Motley for one. But if Jackson gets on the field at all, it means I'm wrong and Fuente legitimately thinks the freshman could be the guy.
Pierson: Under. My hunch is Jerod Evans and Brendan Motley each take snaps and Josh Jackson stays on the sideline. Thanks to an intentionally cryptic head coach, we have no idea if Evans won the QB battle by a mile or a razor thin margin, and the post-announcement comments did little to settle the discussion. Without having seen Josh Jackson play this summer, I'm inclined to believe that he isn't quite ready. If that's the case, then you keep him on the sidelines for now. You've got a r-Jr. starter and a r-Sr. backup to take the reins at the outset. If Jackson is close and Fuente isn't pleased with the performances of his upperclassmen, then you turn to Jackson. But again, just a hunch.
Who gets more carries: Sam Rogers or Travon McMillian?
Brian: SAM ROGERS IS NOT THE FEATURED TAILBACK. I'm sorry. I don't care what the depth chart says, I don't care what Justin Fuente says, and I don't care what Sam himself says while looking like the guy who yells "do a barrel roll" in Star Fox 64. Unless Fuente plans to throw the ball 60 times, he'll need a guy who can break off runs consistently. McMillian and Deshawn McClease will have the most carries against the Flames.
Pierson: McMillian. It's hard not to feel like Sam is RB1 for one or a combination of the following reasons:
- He's the inspirational leader of this team
- He would almost surely run through a brick wall if Fuente asked him to
- He's Sam F&!@ing Rogers
- To motivate Travon just a little bit more
On second thought, it's almost surely a combination of all four. But then again, this is a home opener against Liberty, one week ahead of arguably the most anticipated Hokies game (aside from Frank's swan song) in years. Would it surprise you if Fuente maintained his elaborate ruse for another week, only to unleash the 1,000 yard beast at Bristol? Am I overthinking this? Goddammit, Fuente hasn't even coached a game and he's already in my head.
Over/Under: 449.5 total yards
Brian: I set the lines this week, and I did this one out of old habits. In theory, a Fuente/Cornelsen offense will blow by this number consistently. But there are two things which could hold them back on Saturday, which'll make this closer than many would assume. First of all, the better a defense plays, particularly against an FCS program, the less their counterparts will have to do. If the Hokies force five turnovers and leave Evans and company consistently short fields to work with, the squad can put up a ton of points but not a ton of yards. Secondly, the biggest thing Tech has going for them in Bristol is the lack of tape Tennessee has on the new offense. Something tells me Fuente wants as little for Butch Jones' staff to work with as possible, which will also limit the yardage output.
Pierson: Fuente's Memphis team was held under that margin in only 4 of 13 games last season, including losses to Temple and Auburn. Conversely, the Scot Loeffler-led Hokies attack was held below that figure in 9 of 13 games, including the putrid 100 yard effort against Pitt that I had previously blocked from my memory. Thanks Brian! I'm going to take the over. I don't think it will be the smoothest 450-plus yards gained, but I have a feeling the dynamic nature of a Fuente/Cornelsen system will be too much for the Flames to handle.
Yes/No: Does Virginia Tech score a non-offensive TD?
Brian: Surprisingly, the Hokies have only scored three non-offensive touchdowns against FCS foes since 2006. Though there's a bit of recency bias towards the yes (Motuapuaka vs. Furman last year and Detrick Bonner against Western Carolina in '13), I'll have to stick with the odds and say no.
Though if Tim Settle wants to scoop and score, I won't be mad at him.
Pierson: Yes. Crazy things happen in season openers against FCS teams and I just have this feeling someone is going to make a play. The 2016 crazy thing is named Tim Settle. Hokie Nation has been waiting 18 months for a Tim Settle scoop-and-score. #FatGuyTouchdown
Over/Under: 99.5 total yards for Isaiah Ford
Brian: At Memphis last year, receivers had 46 carries. It's not a ton, but there's more than one way for Ford to get on the board yardage-wise. I'll say under, but it'll be close. He'll rip off a few big plays, but the probable blowout means he may not see any action when the team comes back from halftime.
Pierson: Under. Ford topped the 100-yard mark four times last season, including his last three games. Memphis' top three receivers last season combined for five 100-plus yard receiving games, emphasizing just how much Fuente and Cornelsen like to spread the ball around. Hopefully the Hokies can get out to a healthy lead early on and give some of the less experienced wideouts much-needed reps, allowing guys like Ford, Phillips and Hodges to stay healthy ahead of next week's clash with the Vols.
Rank 1-5: Who has the most total touches: Isaiah Ford, Cam Phillips, Bucky Hodges, Chris Cunningham, Devine Diablo
Brian: The reason this is hardest is because we have no idea who Evans works best with, and where he feels comfortable. I'll go with Hodges, Ford, Diablo (garbage time work), Phillips, Cunningham.
Pierson: Oh good lord, I have no idea. Because it's an FCS opponent, I'm going to operate under the assumption that the staff is able to get the experienced players into rhythm early before tapering their snaps. I'll say Phillips, Diablo, Ford, Cunningham and Hodges.
Who sees more snaps: Wyatt Teller or Colt Pettit?
Brian: I really wonder if Pettit gets most, if not all, of the first team work against Liberty. It's not a coincidence that this has happened to Teller his first three years on the team, but unlike the previous staff this group has no definite loyalty to him. They didn't recruit him, and they don't have two seasons worth of him mashing people into oblivion in the back of their minds. All they really know, is the guy who's showed up and practiced for the last nine months. And maybe that guy hasn't been all that impressive.
Pierson: Teller. I'm sure Colt Pettit has worked his tail off to earn a starting spot on this line and I have no idea what Teller has or has not been doing since Fuente arrived in town, but this whole situation completely befuddles me. As we've all discussed in recent days, maybe Teller's attitude isn't jiving well with Vance Vice. Or maybe Teller hooked Fuente's fish during an off-season trip to the New River. Whatever the reason, I have to believe Teller heard the message loud and clear and will work his way back into the starting five ahead of Bristol. Gaining that continuity with his fellow lineman will be key heading into a matchup versus an SEC defense, and there's no better chance to nail that down than in week one.
Matchup Over/Under: 45.5
Brian: To be honest, I totally made this up. It's between difficult and impossible to find an actual over/under for a game against an FCS team, and dually tough to make one up with the little information we have about the Hokies. Though I'm taking the over, I also think this'll be closer than it seems. I don't think Tech goes all out, and will do just enough to overtake the Flames. Again, the biggest advantage against Tennessee will be that of surprise. Also, I don't see the defense giving up a ton of points (if any), which would hold this number down.
Pierson: With season openers against FCS teams becoming more and more of a rarity, it's hard to truly gauge what a reasonable point total will be when these two teams face off on Saturday. The Hokies have only opened the season against an FCS foe three times since the 1999 season, with point totals of 38, 79 and 43. Sprinkle in the fact that we have zero clue how well the Hokies offense has absorbed the new system (plus a new quarterback) and suddenly I'm completely unsure what to expect against Liberty. My gut is telling me our new look offense is going to surprise us, even with a watered down look, and make Saturday's game look like a one-sided Pop-A-Shot contest. I'll take the over.
Spread: Virginia Tech (-28.5)
Brian: The Flames have lost by an average of 19 points in their last four contests against Power Five schools. Even if you throw out the field goal deficit against Wake Forest a few years back, Liberty has done enough to make their games interesting in Vegas. For instance, they lost 41-17 to West Virginia in 2015. If the Hokies won their game by the exact same margin, most of the fanbase would take it, but Tech still wouldn't cover the spread. I think there'll be a sneaky backdoor cover by Turner Gill's squad in Blacksburg.
Pierson: I'm taking the Hokies and laying the points. I expect to see points. Lots of them. Scored in myriad ways by old and new faces, alike. I expect to enjoy my Saturday afternoon viewing experience and I expert to hear Skipper go off so many times that they run out of ammo.
Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.
Comments
What are the chances that Fuente holds back tomorrow - and not just holds back - but pulls like a total potential brain fuck on Tennessee by only beating Liberty by like 10 points.
Set up perfectly - everyone will be talking about how much we blew the game, we're weak, pace was off, etc - then BOOM! Tennesse caught sleeping and blown out on a National stage.
I'm going with 0%.
The day after tomorrow might be a different story...
Current Forecast for Tennessee's insight into our game strategy after the Liberty game:
If the storm heads west, this may be an accurate foreshadowing.
I think a good offense practices being good in real games
I appreciate anything gambling related. As you probably know Brian, I may or may not have a gambling problem. TKP needs an actual gambling thread every week for all of college football.
I bet you $50 that my gambling problem is worse than yours
$50? Come on, that doesn't even get me a chubby. I need at least $250 to even start to get my dick hard.
You're assuming he wanted that outcome...
Take a gamble on the The Key Player's Club
That's just a sure thing!
You may have to settle for BearControlOffense's Six Pick - Week One thread today.
If Fuente runs anything but Stroman jet sweeps and at least four RB's per drive tomorrow, Tennessee is going to know that we have a new offense... unacceptable!
Fuente will complete the illusion by trotting out Bucky as starting QB.
I'm going with Under Travon, Over NO
Over Ford, Hodges, Phillips, Diablo, Cunningham
Pettit (close)
Under, won't cover.
OT: VT just announced Liberty game has NOT sold out. This isn't great guys, really thought Hokie Nation would show up for first game.
Just my opinion, but the average fan isn't going to be drawn back into Lane until we start winning more regularly there and winning in general. However, I still expect a good crowd even if it doesn't sell out.
I'm not going to the Liberty game. Why? Because I'm going to Bristol, BC, and ECU for 3 consecutive weekends and that is too much travel as it is...adding another week was a deal breaker. If I didn't also have *life* going on outside of football the story might be different.
Was hoping to see near sellout and a company or two buy up the rest for the first game of Fuente era.
I understand, and I would have loved seeing a sell-out for the first game of the Fuente era but our schedule absolutely sucks for fans. 3 home games and Bristol in 4 weeks is brutal. The fans don't get any reprieves with a front-loaded home schedule and it's really hard to expect fans to travel down for every game when they are back-to-back-to-back-to-back home games, essentially. They're going to pick and choose and quite honestly, since it's just Liberty, I'm not surprised fans have elected to sit that one out. If I was to pick 2 of the 4 to attend they would be Bristol and ECU. I expect the ECU game will probably be the best bet at a sell-out until the UVA game in November. I don't think we'll sell out the Thursday night game because it's tough for fans to travel down during the week. It wouldn't surprise me to sell out that game, though. I doubt if we'll sell out at all in September, but if we do it'll likely be the ECU game IMO
Just me being curious. Where are you getting the information about ticket sales?
https://twitter.com/rtd_mikebarber/status/771363962143277056
Gotcha thanks. I went to Hokie Tickets to see what seats were still available for purchase, and it really doesn't seem like there are that many left. And looking section by section, there are about 200 or so (very rough estimate) available in the West Stands and (again, very rough estimate) 1000-1500 available in the upper east stands.
Reading between the lines on the push they making at the last minute for student season tickets, and the push for the mini plans I think it's a lot worse than that.
Either way, we start winning and more people will be willing to go to games. It's hard to fault the average fan for staying at home. (especially after that Pitt debacle last year)
.....and North Carolina, and several ACC home games I'd rather forget. There have been a few rough drives home recently. It is understandable and not surprising at all that this game is not a sellout.
Shit. I thought we were done with this.
Not great news but once we start winning and picking up momentum I think this will turn around quick. The cost, time, and travel becomes a lot less of an issue when the product on the field is worth it.
I saw a couple thousand people walk out during Beamer's last ever home game. Nothing this fan base does will surprise me anymore
I was so disappointed at that. I couldn't believe that's what I was seeing. That's one reason hopes are high this season. We need some feel good wins to help make a step forward from the legendary era that is Frank Beamer.
My wife and I were in the stands looking around in disgust at everybody filing out. We were embarrassed for Frank. It sucked :(
The part that bothered me the most is that it wasn't just freshmen and sophomores that have no idea what Beamer has done for VT. There were so many adults leaving
I'm not surprised, and I'm not ashamed. There are a LOT of adults that enjoy the game of football, even have a preference for a team, but don't have the emotional connection. My dad (62) enjoys watching sports, but has no real emotion tied to it. He'll get wrapped up in the moment, but even for his alma mater, he doesn't get that attachment. It's just a game, a form of entertainment.
I'd love to say every person at that stadium should show Beamer the respect that he deserves, but it's unreasonable to assume everyone has that connection, regardless of how long they've watched hokie football.
I want this and Liberty held to <150 yards of offense. A smothering D and an offense capable of scoring is what we've lacked in Blacksburg for the past few years. Obviously the W is what matters, but it would be nice!
UT fan just called XM and predicted 150k fans for them and 10k for Hokies at Bristol. I'll take any odds against that.
I don't think that's possible given each school had an allotment of tickets to sell.
Tenn fans will claim that they bought the tickets VT couldn't sell from their allotment.
either way, I hope there are tons of Tenn fans there to witness their team get smacked up by the Hokie Stone clad Hokies. Oh, seeing their tears is going to be glorious!
This is just a question for discussion. But does anyone outside of Southwest Virginia, as a Hokie, see this as a rivalry game like these Tenn homers do? I'm from Southwest Virginia and I don't like UT because of their fans in the area, but I couldn't care less about the so called "rivalry." If we are vastly outnumbered, that's largely what I attribute it to. Am I wrong in thinking that? Also, I still really hope you're right.
We've played them twice since WWII. I don't think that constitutes a rivalry.
Agreed. Don't get me wrong, I most certainly want to win because of the stage and implications (and to silence some UT fans).
That's it in a nutshell. This game is only a rivalry in the border towns because of proximity to both teams. Now, I, for one, would welcome a rivalry with Tennessee, but I don't see them as too eager to set up a regular game, so screw 'em.
I don't think so..I'm with Ifish on this. It's not a rivalry but I would certainly welcome it. Tenn is bound to be a much better rival than LOLUVA
Oh, I can easily see being outnumbered in general. But 15:1? We played Bama twice, at LSU, etc, many hours further away. I'm sure Hokie Nation can muster 40k+ just across the fence from our back yard.
While true, Vol nation are delusional savages. They will be out in force, Bristol is a skip from Knoxville and it is in the state of TN. We should have about 50k there, guessing. So 2:1 are my odds.
All that will matter is "Let's go...Hokies..." ringing loud and clear through the 4th and into the trophy presentation.
Bristol is 109 miles from Knoxville and 134 miles from Blacksburg, and while track is situated in Tenn, the town of Bristol literally straddles the state line. Tennessee fans may travel en masse to the game, but any attendance differences shouldn't be attributed to distance from campus. One could argue that distance complicates matters for all of the VT alumni in the DC metro area (I have no idea where UT alums are concentrated), but this game has been in the works for years and should minimize most issues associated with driving time.
VT alumni are crowded into the DC metro area because that's where the jobs are. Not many of us settle back in the NRV. While UT has a crapton of alums in Knoxville, they also have a huge population of non-alumni locals who make up a chunk of their fan base (850+K as of 2014. Not so much with Blacksburg for us.
In the woodwork....under rocks....composte piles....
While factually true, I've lived an hour or so from Bristol for all of my life, save the years at Tech. Most Hokies from Wytheville east do not fully understand or realize the beast that is Volunteer football. UT had over 100k, not a sellout, for a Thursday night game versus a formidable, but pretty small school. They have the whole SEC religion thing going on. There are people I work with that are UT fans, but don't generally go to their games, that are camping out starting Wed/Thurs. Not that we should be worried.
I have faith that we will be louder. However, they will make up a significant portion of BMS next week. Like I've been saying all summer, be prepared for verbal and physical shenanigans. I expect plenty of fights, especially for those on the fringes of the stadium mix or those who bought tix in UT areas.
It's a bigger phenomenon than you are realizing.
should we be worried about physical altercations in the event Tenn loses?
Honestly, hit or miss. All UT fans are not this rowdy. But like someone posted above, there will be a lot of non-alumni fans, NASCAR fans, locals there. I think there will be several, at least more than usual fights/altercations. Those seating in the cut-off areas where BMS was divided for "sides" will be a hot zone.
BMS did a good thing by separating the fan zones, parking, and tailgate areas. Once you are exited from BMS, you'll be heading to friendly confines of the tailgate. The traffic jam that will happen will cause friction.
Last time we beat UT in the Peach Bowl, good portion of UT fans left early, but I did see close to 3 altercations. Not trying to scare anyone, but there will be a lot of moonshine and garbage spewing from Vol fans. On the flip side, I was inebriated and running my mouth on the walk to Georgia Dome lol. Little older now.
Eh, I'm ready for anything. Who Volunteers for things anyway? Losers.
Unless they put booms in the stands I'm not sure how much noise is really going to be heard. Bristol doesn't look like its built for crowd noise at all, it looks like it's built to let engine and racing noise out because it's thunderous.
It's going to be interesting. Can't wait to see the post game reports from people going.
I agree. I think it will be eerily quiet at field level. I mean, there will still be 150,000 people there so who knows.