The fumble on the jet sweep sure. But the muffed punt? Bad snap? Cam fighting for yards and not protecting it? No, that's not a new scheme, that's just poor performance.
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Right. Guys tried too hard when they faced adversity and it cost them with turnovers.
I don't think it has anything to do with scheme. Guys need to protect the ball. Stroman on the PR was him being too aggressive, and Cam has fumbled in back to back games?
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Stroman needs to direct traffic. So no, the fumble wasn't his fault, per se, but he needs to be screaming for Williams to get the heck out of his way. Stroman knows he needs to come up to catch the ball. He's got to communicate that to all the coverage guys coming down the field, rather than just run into them. Punt returns are chaotic and the returner is working in a tight space most of the time, but that's what he's got to be trained to do.
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I don't put that on stroman at all. Was a terrible punt and it's hard to account for that. Williams was also locked up with a defender so even with proper communication there is no telling if he'd still have been hit or not.
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National Team Averages:
2015: 18.7 Fumbles, 8.7 Lost (46.8%)
2014: 18.8 Fumbles, 9.5 Lost (50.1%)
2013: 18.3 Fumbles, 9.3 Lost (51.2%)
2012: 20.1 Fumbles, 10.6 Lost (52.3%)
In 2012 Memphis was indeed last in the country in the number of fumbles. 1st season under a new scheme, same situation as us this year (albeit with much less talent). 22 fumbles is within one standard deviation of the mean in 2013-2015.
In 2012 VT had 29 fumbles, only lost 9 (31%). 2013, 14 fumbles (4 lost, 28%). 2014, 21 fumbles (11 lost, 52%). 2015, 16 fumbles (7 lost, 44%). So VT has been slightly better at avoiding fumbling, and pretty "lucky" with fumbling but not losing possession.
Also under Fuente Memphis seems to lose a high-ish percentage of fumbles. Though, that might be due to play design with guys in space without any teammates nearby to help recover fumbles. Although, I looked at Baylor for comparison and they seem to recover fumbles better than average, so who knows.
One thing is for sure...no team in recent history has lost 90% of their fumbles in an entire season, so that's encouraging.
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This is a little disturbing. Always losing at least half of the balls you put on the ground. And at their best they were still fumbling more than once a game, on average, and losing about 3/4 of a fumble per game to the opposition. I wonder what this data looks like for all the teams in 1-A
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The good news is that fumble recovery rates are mostly random. At some point VT's fumble luck might correct itself but they should probably hold onto the damn ball instead.
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Fumbles are fumbles, just need to stress ball security in practice. The bad exchange can happy in any offense (and does happen) so we just need to execute those plays better and protect the ball better.
Our two muffed punt issues have been just unlucky ball placement. Stroman tried to remedy a bad situation because that ball was going to hit our guy regardless
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Memphis seemed to have a lot of personal fouls and unsportsmanlike penalties whenever I happened to catch their games. I thought it may have been coincidence but after tonight I'm a little concerned. I'd like to see the stats on it.
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I posted the fumble stats above, here are the penalty stats. Again two years prior to Fuente's arrival at Memphis:
2010: 6.3 Penalties Per Game, 48.7 Penalty Yards Per Game (46th nationally)
2011: 4.8 Penalties Per Game, 43.6 Penalty Yards Per Game (35th nationally)
And his four years at Memphis:
2012: 7.1 Penalties Per Game, 69.3 Penalty Yards Per Game (116th nationally)
2013: 7.7 Penalties Per Game, 71.8 Penalty Yards Per Game (120th nationally)
2014: 6.2 Penalties Per Game, 59.2 Penalty Yards Per Game (92nd nationally)
2015: 7.6 Penalties Per Game, 75.1 Penalty Yards Per Game (124th nationally)
Sorry formatting isn't great, I'm just copy-pasting this stuff. Does not look good. We were pretty sloppy during those years as well (more than Memphis in 2014, in fact), but there doesn't seem to be any indication that the penalty issue is going to go away any time soon.
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I know it's extra work to get these stats but can we think about these rate statistics in per-play terms? Especially on offense (like the fumble issue).
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This would tell us more. I could see the possibility of more fumbles coming with more plays being run due to the hurry up offensive scheme. At least, that's what I'd like to believe.
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Fuente's fumble and penalty stats at Memphis are reason for concern.
For what it's worth, though, Memphis had no tradition to go off of. Do you think their fans and university were happy to give up extra penalty yards and fumbles in exchange for winning? Of course. And, given that they weren't playing teams week in and week out that would punish them for making these mistakes, it didn't cost them too much.
Fuente is at Virginia Tech now. He has a tradition to carry on. He is coaching in big, out-of-conference games and the ACC. I believe Fuente will get this right and the team will play more disciplined.
That was the man's second game, and he is no Al Golden. The ship will be righted and Tech will compete for the Coastal this year.
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Fumble 1 – on VT 5 leads to Tenn TD
Fumble 2- on VT 23 leads to Tenn FG
Fumble 3- on VT 29 leads to missed Tenn FG
Fumble 4- on Tenn 21—leads to Punt mishap with Stroman—Tenn TD
Fumble 5 -on VT 4—Tenn TD
you give ANY team those yards, they will come away with points. Along with those, we had 101 yards in penalties.
The bright side I see is that if we fix ball security and penalties, we can get rolling on offense cause the scheme seems to be working. Talent was not a reason we lost this game. They gotta tighten up for ACC play.
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There could be a correlation between spread offenses and fumbles. And there is definitely a correlation between the number of plays run and fumbles. That said, some of the fumbles we saw last night were just due to some really dumb stuff.
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The 2 fumbles that really cost the game were Cams Fumble in the Redzone and then the Muffed Punt following. Felt like we had the momentum swinging our way on that Drive and surely would have scored to make it a 1 TD game. And who knows had we kept the ball on that Punt. Just rediculous that every single fumble seemed to go right into the Vols hands.
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Yea, even if we just flip the field on that drive, the game would've been completely different. VT had all the momentum, Tenn's offense was struggling, and VT gave them an easy 7. Gotta make them work for it to get back into the game. Make them feel the pressure, try to do too much, leading to bad throws, dropped passes, and possibly turnovers.
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The muffed punt was a strange play. It wasn't totally on Stohman. The punt was going to hit our flanker in the back, so he had to go and try to get that ball. The football gods were not with us last night.
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The muffed punt was 90% bad luck, 5% Stro not effectively clearing the landing zone and 5% ESPN in the most expensive game ever held not having a decent fucking camera angle on it to overturn what was almost certainly a questionable on-field call.
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Comments
I've done no research, but I'm willing to bet it's just growing pains on our part with the new offense.
The fumble on the jet sweep sure. But the muffed punt? Bad snap? Cam fighting for yards and not protecting it? No, that's not a new scheme, that's just poor performance.
Yeah, I don't know where I was going with that. I'm tired, we lost, nothing makes sense.
Right. Guys tried too hard when they faced adversity and it cost them with turnovers.
I don't think it has anything to do with scheme. Guys need to protect the ball. Stroman on the PR was him being too aggressive, and Cam has fumbled in back to back games?
The punt return fumble was not on Stroman, the ball hit Williams in the back.
Stroman needs to direct traffic. So no, the fumble wasn't his fault, per se, but he needs to be screaming for Williams to get the heck out of his way. Stroman knows he needs to come up to catch the ball. He's got to communicate that to all the coverage guys coming down the field, rather than just run into them. Punt returns are chaotic and the returner is working in a tight space most of the time, but that's what he's got to be trained to do.
Exactly.
He did scream at him. Problem is that 157000 fans are louder.
It looked like he was, live. I was watching this closely through binoculars.
I'll be watching this play recorded in a little while.
I don't put that on stroman at all. Was a terrible punt and it's hard to account for that. Williams was also locked up with a defender so even with proper communication there is no telling if he'd still have been hit or not.
Yeah, Cam had the fumbling problem too last year... The Georgia Tech game come to mind
Looking at the stats, in the two years prior to Fuente's arrival at Memphis:
2010: 21 Fumbles, 13 Lost
2011: 21 Fumbles, 10 Lost
During his years at Memphis:
2012: 36 Fumbles, 21 Lost
2013: 22 Fumbles, 15 Lost
2014: 22 Fumbles, 11 Lost
2015: 18 Fumbles, 9 Lost
I really hope that's not the trajectory we're following, but it looks like that may be the case.
At least he improves haha.
36 is crazy
22 even seems high. Now I fear it's systematic.
National Team Averages:
2015: 18.7 Fumbles, 8.7 Lost (46.8%)
2014: 18.8 Fumbles, 9.5 Lost (50.1%)
2013: 18.3 Fumbles, 9.3 Lost (51.2%)
2012: 20.1 Fumbles, 10.6 Lost (52.3%)
In 2012 Memphis was indeed last in the country in the number of fumbles. 1st season under a new scheme, same situation as us this year (albeit with much less talent). 22 fumbles is within one standard deviation of the mean in 2013-2015.
In 2012 VT had 29 fumbles, only lost 9 (31%). 2013, 14 fumbles (4 lost, 28%). 2014, 21 fumbles (11 lost, 52%). 2015, 16 fumbles (7 lost, 44%). So VT has been slightly better at avoiding fumbling, and pretty "lucky" with fumbling but not losing possession.
Also under Fuente Memphis seems to lose a high-ish percentage of fumbles. Though, that might be due to play design with guys in space without any teammates nearby to help recover fumbles. Although, I looked at Baylor for comparison and they seem to recover fumbles better than average, so who knows.
One thing is for sure...no team in recent history has lost 90% of their fumbles in an entire season, so that's encouraging.
Our bad punt ... hits their player in leg bounces 20 yards backwards and they recover
Their bad punt ... hits our player and ball dies near sideline.
Some of that will even out. That being said our guys need to improve
what do we have 9 through 2 games? 36 would be an improvement with our current average per game.
This is a little disturbing. Always losing at least half of the balls you put on the ground. And at their best they were still fumbling more than once a game, on average, and losing about 3/4 of a fumble per game to the opposition. I wonder what this data looks like for all the teams in 1-A
The good news is that fumble recovery rates are mostly random. At some point VT's fumble luck might correct itself but they should probably hold onto the damn ball instead.
Fumbles are fumbles, just need to stress ball security in practice. The bad exchange can happy in any offense (and does happen) so we just need to execute those plays better and protect the ball better.
Our two muffed punt issues have been just unlucky ball placement. Stroman tried to remedy a bad situation because that ball was going to hit our guy regardless
Memphis seemed to have a lot of personal fouls and unsportsmanlike penalties whenever I happened to catch their games. I thought it may have been coincidence but after tonight I'm a little concerned. I'd like to see the stats on it.
I posted the fumble stats above, here are the penalty stats. Again two years prior to Fuente's arrival at Memphis:
2010: 6.3 Penalties Per Game, 48.7 Penalty Yards Per Game (46th nationally)
2011: 4.8 Penalties Per Game, 43.6 Penalty Yards Per Game (35th nationally)
And his four years at Memphis:
2012: 7.1 Penalties Per Game, 69.3 Penalty Yards Per Game (116th nationally)
2013: 7.7 Penalties Per Game, 71.8 Penalty Yards Per Game (120th nationally)
2014: 6.2 Penalties Per Game, 59.2 Penalty Yards Per Game (92nd nationally)
2015: 7.6 Penalties Per Game, 75.1 Penalty Yards Per Game (124th nationally)
Sorry formatting isn't great, I'm just copy-pasting this stuff. Does not look good. We were pretty sloppy during those years as well (more than Memphis in 2014, in fact), but there doesn't seem to be any indication that the penalty issue is going to go away any time soon.
I know it's extra work to get these stats but can we think about these rate statistics in per-play terms? Especially on offense (like the fumble issue).
This would tell us more. I could see the possibility of more fumbles coming with more plays being run due to the hurry up offensive scheme. At least, that's what I'd like to believe.
Fuente's fumble and penalty stats at Memphis are reason for concern.
For what it's worth, though, Memphis had no tradition to go off of. Do you think their fans and university were happy to give up extra penalty yards and fumbles in exchange for winning? Of course. And, given that they weren't playing teams week in and week out that would punish them for making these mistakes, it didn't cost them too much.
Fuente is at Virginia Tech now. He has a tradition to carry on. He is coaching in big, out-of-conference games and the ACC. I believe Fuente will get this right and the team will play more disciplined.
That was the man's second game, and he is no Al Golden. The ship will be righted and Tech will compete for the Coastal this year.
Well its not a secret penalties and fumbles cost us a game tonight. A game we might not get a chance at again anytime soon.
tenn probably felt the same way after we smoked them in the 2009 bowl.
Yes it did. I looked up the stats
Fumble 1 – on VT 5 leads to Tenn TD
Fumble 2- on VT 23 leads to Tenn FG
Fumble 3- on VT 29 leads to missed Tenn FG
Fumble 4- on Tenn 21—leads to Punt mishap with Stroman—Tenn TD
Fumble 5 -on VT 4—Tenn TD
you give ANY team those yards, they will come away with points. Along with those, we had 101 yards in penalties.
The bright side I see is that if we fix ball security and penalties, we can get rolling on offense cause the scheme seems to be working. Talent was not a reason we lost this game. They gotta tighten up for ACC play.
The problem with the snaps.. Chung at center instead of Gallo
Guess i missed this but where was Gallo?
According to Fuente, Chung had a better week in practice than Gallo.
There could be a correlation between spread offenses and fumbles. And there is definitely a correlation between the number of plays run and fumbles. That said, some of the fumbles we saw last night were just due to some really dumb stuff.
The 2 fumbles that really cost the game were Cams Fumble in the Redzone and then the Muffed Punt following. Felt like we had the momentum swinging our way on that Drive and surely would have scored to make it a 1 TD game. And who knows had we kept the ball on that Punt. Just rediculous that every single fumble seemed to go right into the Vols hands.
I'm saying the worst one was the first one with the bad snap. Killed our drive that could have put us up by three scores and gift wrapped a TD for UT.
Yea, even if we just flip the field on that drive, the game would've been completely different. VT had all the momentum, Tenn's offense was struggling, and VT gave them an easy 7. Gotta make them work for it to get back into the game. Make them feel the pressure, try to do too much, leading to bad throws, dropped passes, and possibly turnovers.
The muffed punt was a strange play. It wasn't totally on Stohman. The punt was going to hit our flanker in the back, so he had to go and try to get that ball. The football gods were not with us last night.
The muffed punt was 90% bad luck, 5% Stro not effectively clearing the landing zone and 5% ESPN in the most expensive game ever held not having a decent fucking camera angle on it to overturn what was almost certainly a questionable on-field call.
Why in all things holy did we kick it from the Virginia state line? We should've had a play for Sam to take down their throats
I'm inclined to agree with you. Sam sure did look good in that first drive, didn't he? Shoulda gone for it.
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