To open, a brief "By the Advanced Numbers: What the Hell Happened in Bristol?". After a quarter against Tennessee the Hokies looked like a potential top 10 team. Virginia Tech drove the ball easily against a formidable defense and shut down a dynamic offense. Then Tech crumbled. There are a number of reasons for the collapse, but let's focus on one of the more stat-oriented ones. Over the long run, teams recover about 50% of fumbles that occur, and there's little evidence that certain teams are actually "good" or "bad" at recovering fumbles.
On the field at Bristol, the ball came loose seven times. Tennessee recovered all seven fumbles. For those not good at the maths, there is a 1-in-128 chance of that happening. Now it wouldn't be fair to say that with better luck Virginia Tech wins the game, but with a 3-4 or 4-3 split the game is much, much closer. The Hokies outgained the Volunteers not only in total yardage, but also yards per play. The Hokies ended with a 21-point deficit thanks to turnovers coupled with the field position where they happened, and penalties.
But hey, Virginia Tech played in front of the biggest crowd to ever attend a football game and that's really cool. Be honest: if ten years ago someone said a college football game would be played in front of 156,990 people, you would have never guessed that the Hokies would have been one of the teams selected. Now Tech's task is to defend its undefeated ACC record.
Last season Boston College featured one of the best defenses in the country, and one of the worst offenses. So naturally the Eagles hired Scot Loeffler. While one might scoff at the idea that the new OC is an upgrade, keep in mind that the 90th-ranked offenses he put together in Blacksburg are technically much better than Boston College's offense from last year.
Note: Detailed offense, defense, and special teams ratings are not available until midway through the season. Until that time, "By the Advanced Numbers" is an abbreviated column.
Where the Hokies Season Stands
Virginia Tech is currently 1-1. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:
The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:
In 10,000 simulated seasons, Virginia Tech finished 11-1 once. Just sayin'.
Rankings and Computer Predictions
The computer rankings and predictions for each team:
Boston College must be one of the more difficult teams to assess thus far, with various rating systems putting them anywhere from 28th to 108th in the country. The odds of a 6-point favorite winning are 67.3%.
Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:
At this point in the season, preseason projections are a major part of the ratings, so seeing the Hokies up to 57th in offense already is a very promising development. The team finished 72nd last season after the Independence Bowl outburst. However, Boston College returns a very good defense that will be a great test for just how much progress Justin Fuente has made to this point.
Who To Watch Out For Against Boston College
Let's see, it's Boston College so there must be some linebacker who seems to be getting into the backfield at will:
- LB Connor Strachan currently leads the country with 6.5 tackles for loss on the season. Now would be a good time for Teller and Gallo to be on the field every down.
BONUS! Who NOT to watch out for (other than any offensive player):
- RB Myles Willis handles kick return duties for the Eagles, a job that won't even require stretching, pads, or even legs really. Joey Slye is one of two kickers in the country to have 100% of their kickoffs go for touchbacks this season.
Statistical Key to the Game
You're expecting something about fumbles here aren't you?
Tennessee disrupted Tech's ability to stretch the field by disrupting plays at the line, and Boston College won't be any less formidable. If the Hokies are forced to play a short field, the offense could be in real trouble so my concern is downfield passing. The statistical key to the game will be completions of 10+ yards, indicating that the Eagles are not able to dictate plays at the line.
The Stats that Define Virginia Tech's Season
Revisiting my column from this summer on the stats that will define the season, here is how the Hokies performed thus far (each listed as VT - Opponent):
| Opponent | PPP | Pace (sec/play) | ToP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | .40 - .21 | 22.7 - 25.5 | 33:42 - 26:18 |
| Tennessee | .33 - .71 | 26.1 - 26.1 | 31:44 - 28:16 |
I will not value time of possession.
Statistical Prediction
Probably because I think the Hokies played Tennessee much closer than the final score would indicate, I am more optimistic about the team than I should be. Boston College has been a thorn in Virginia Tech's side in the past, but that should have nothing to do with this season. I can't imagine Loeffler putting together a game plan that is effective, so while I don't think this will be a shootout, I think the Hokies win comfortably and irrational optimism can return to fans.
Virginia Tech 27, Boston College 10
As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.
Comments
27 points against BC's defense is like 40 against any other ACC defense. Last year, they gave up:
FSU (14), Duke (9), Wake (3), Clemson (34), Louisville (17), VT (26), NCSU (24), Notre Dame (19), Syracuse (20). {and they lost every single one of those games! Including Wake!}
If we can get to 27 against BC, everyone else better look out.
Yea unless we get a defense TD like last year, 27 will be very hard to crack.
I think this game will tell us a lot about this team and the coaching staff. If we can score 30 plus against BC, watch out, we might have a very real shot at going to Charlotte or wherever they the ACCCG. If we win a scrappy low scoring encounter, 6-7 wins is the ceiling for the team. If we lose, well I be surprised if make a bowl. This is a definitive statement game for the offence and the offensive staff. Another sloppy performance and media statements about sub optimal preparations, I think we see big changes in playing personnel and maybe even the staff.
Staff change after three games? That take is smoking hot.
I meant staff responsibility for game prep for the rest of the season as well as staff changes after the year.
Oh okay. I misread your comment. Accept my apology and a leg.
I really hope this staff has what it takes to get us where I want us to be. I don't think I can stomach a long slow unraveling through several staff changes just to reach a lower low than the last few years. Possible to be lower? Of course. I just hope we don't see it happen.
I think this is a tough game to use a predictor. There's the former coach aspect, not sure if that helps us, hurts us, or both. Their defense is tough, so I wouldn't be surprised to see 3 offensive TD's or less. Doesn't necessarily mean our offense is bad. I will be worried if BC puts up big points on the defense.
Agreed. BC's defense held FSU to 14 points last year, ND to 19. If VT gets to 20 offensive points this weekend, we have a very good offense.
I feel we're a better offensive team than last year so I don't think it's insane to think that we could put up around the same amount of points as last year (26). something....something...hold on to the ball...
Oh boy, my favorite!!
Alright!
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That's what I want to hear! And Data to back it up
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I'm not sure what I'm more surprised by. That the computers give GT the edge over us or that we are 81% "likely" to beat Cuse. GT looked like garbage against BC in Ireland. I watched Cuse against Louisville and their offense looked pretty decent to good.
I have never seen a worse display of defense than Cuse vs Louisville. I'm pretty sure Babers spends 90% of his resources on offense because that defense was a crime. Louisville went untouched for half their TDs. If we don't put up 45+ it will be a bad game
According to the announcers Lamar Jackson is the second coming of Christ, so it was hard to evaluate their D. I just think 81% is a high number.
I'm not sure Christ could throw the seam as well as Jackson.
Relevant:
He doesn't have to, he just speaks it and it is so. I still put all my faith in Christ, not Jackson! A no brainer
Your likely not far off on this. What I remember of the Bowling Green teams under Babers' watch was a incredibly high scoring squad, that would still get close wins. Enough of them that he found a new job offer. 55-48 style games.
As soon as I hear that Cuse' had hired Babers all i could think was that he better find someone to run that defense. I know that Louisville and Lamar Jackson are shaping up to be one of the more flashy offenses in the land this season, but I expect quite a few ACC teams to hang 35+ on the Orange. They flat out can't play defense.
Personally, I think the ACC could use a Texas Tech type squad.
Interested to see UofL defense vs FSU. Cuse O is improved but their D is just...BAD
For those of you who haven't been around long enough, before there was Fuck Matt Ryan, there was Fuck Donovan McNabb. Same rules apply. Don't ask about the 98 game in the Carrier Dome unless you want to get punched in the mouth. Don't watch the ending unless you want to punch someone else in the mouth.
Damn, I just got myself worked up. Luckily my door was closed so nobody heard the stream of profanity that I just spat out. God, I hate Syracuse. Nothing like some good, clean, Big East hate!
Yeah, I was at that game. Ex-brother-in-law is an Orange alum. Luckily, he is not as rabid a fan as I am, so he didn't give me a hard time. Otherwise, I would've punched him in the mouth.
I'm ashamed to admit that I watched this gif at least 20 times.
Actually, I lied. I'm not ashamed.
I couldn't decide which part was my favorite: The awkward shoulder nudge or the girl on the right growing more and more confident with each shove?
Ah yes, the "Rocky" fighting style - arms down, face presented.
It's only a sucker punch if you're punching a sucker.
You mean a quarterback ran for a clutch 1st down against our defense? Say it ain't so!
The night we stomped Syracuse into a permanent state of mediocrity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZI5EPTsclXk
I was at Lane when Cuse came in with McNabb as a Freshman. It was windy and freaking cold. Cuse played in their cozy dome and could not do anything that afternoon. I forget the final score cause we stayed thru the whole game drinking peppermint schnapps. Had to do something!!!
yep, I'm not the slightest bit worried about BC. We could not have shot ourselves in the foot more against Tenn and it was still a game with 12 minutes left. BC does not have the weapons on offense that Tenn does and I trust our play callers to make BC's defense look silly enough.
27-10 sounds about right, with at least one of our TDs coming from special teams or defense.
Maybe i'm still riding the preseason over-hype train. But I still feel like we can acheive 8 wins (not including a bowl game)
I think this will be a great test of confidence for not only the players but the coaches in offensive play calling. I hope we don't give up on what worked against TN. Take the learnings from the 2 nd and Third Q and make the adjustments.
I need a simple refresher on how the Offense and Defense get ranked. Is it points, yards, or a combination? UT and Appy went to OT - were they virtually the same to the computers, or was one statistically better? If one was better, which one? Who did statistically better against UT in the loss, VT or Appy? Why?
Every time someone calls them "Appy", a Mountaineer (not the terrible West Virginia kind, but the much better NC kind) strangles a kitten. Stop murdering the kittens with your terrible abbreviations. Use App or App State instead.
But I don't like cats...
Anyway go App State, kill Miami!!!
I am not trying to be offensive, but my 16 yr old spent last weekend at Appalachian State visiting friends to see if he might want to attend there, and I heard at least two current students refer to it as Appy while planning the visit over Labor Day.
Oh, I know that type of student
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I've also heard Tech students and alumni call it V-Tech.
Apparently the programming didn't take hold and the ROM needs to be reflashed.
The short answer comes from Football Outsiders (they have links explaining each measure):
The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)
Football Study Hall adjusts each team's performance in each game to form an adjusted score. The gave Tennessee a 0.1-point victory over App. State, and a 3.3-point win over VT. Let that sink in for a moment.
Thank you - very concise. Is the score adjusted as more data comes in to better make opponent-adjustments, or are only future scores affected by future performances?
We're gonna win
In 10,000 simulated seasons, Virginia Tech finished 11-1 once. Just sayin'.
So what you're sayin' is that there's still a chance. Full on hype train going forward!
hey man, we can't go 11-1 without first going 2-1. Win one game at a time and that chance gets bigger every week.
Looks like we are going 11-1!!!
Doesn't the 0.01 under 1 win also mean we have the same chance to go 1-11?
That assumes a bell curve distribution...and that we don't play UVa.
Yes, we do play LOLUVA, so the chance of a 1-win season is probably even more remote than the probabilities suggest.
But we might not need to assume a bell curve. Simulations show that the probability of going winless the rest of the year is approximately equal to the probability of winning the rest of our games, assuming the probability of victory in each game in the above graph is used.
Based on my limited understanding of the black swan argument, it appears the the chance of losing to loluva shown here is an example of data incompatible with a bell curve. To make the data fit the curve, Joel's model obviously had to increase loluva's chances immensely. Another example would be my 1 in 100000000 chance of winning the lottery, which is clearly way too low.
I've never invoked a black swan argument, but wikipedia tells me it's this:
Ohhh now I get the joke. LOLUVA, nice.
I can't decide if I'm more confused by why there are ducks in this post or the fact that no one has commented on them.
Usually when you say something that's gonna get you yelled at, you follow it with "ducks"
I fondly imagine George W every time
I mean...they're *ducks* and they're cute.
I appreciated the whitt and legged you for it.
"Irrational optimism?" What's that? Sounds like something people associated with LOLUVA might contract.
with LOLUVa, it's normally more severe, but usually goes into remission around 6am the day after their first game only to pop back up sometime around spring ball. With us, the infection is to a lesser degree, but persists year round with only a few symptom free days following each loss.
So wait... you're telling me that our offense couldn't beat Alabama right now?
What the shit was all that talk last week about, then
Ya know, in theory I feel good facing off against BC despite their year-in-year-out strong defense and their new offensive wrinkle with Scot Loeffler. I saw some wheel routes in game 1 and 2 with his name all over them.
But then, I cringe at the turnovers seared into my brain. If the Hokies can manage to lower their game average of fumbles/fumbles lost and keep the turnover margin to at least -1, I think we'll win by 2 scores, 9+.
If the Hokies manage to stay put on turnovers per game, we're gonna lose and its gonna look bad and feel bad. BC D is no scrubs, especially up front, where are woes start. They should have won that GT game. I can see them holding the Hokies to 20 points or less.
Towles, despite being a lifetime loser and product of SEC a bottomfeeder Kentucky has some game. He devoted this whole season's worth of game to the most influential figure in 2016, Harambe. That's guaranteed to give him some boost. He is a HUGE upgrade over those shmucks BC ran out last year. Doug Flutie's nephew is now the acting water boy while Darius Wade is catching passes.
If we spot them a few drives with excellent field position, like we did UT, it's gonna be an miserable day.
Oh, I get it. So the game where we did better in ToP, we won handily. /s
Look for something on Hokie Vision soon tracking this.
I'd like to see Slye boot it within the 10 and force a return in an unexpected moment, assuming our special teams knows its coming. Else, I am afraid our guys might be sleeping on special teams knowing a touchback is nearly guaranteed. Gostowski does this for the Patriots every once in a while and the opposition often winds up with shit field position.
It'd also be pretty damn cool to see a collegiate kicker rack up a seasons worth of touchbacks however. I wonder what the record percentage is.
What are yall's thoughts on Slye at 45+ in 4th and short? Do you think we should still be chancing these? I know he has the leg, but he has not proven accurate at this distance. He has missed one in each game, both times in 4th and short. I think he has only hit one at this distance all in all. Sure, in the final seconds with the game on the line, you let Slye try anything short of probably 55 yards. But when it's early and the offense is moving, just go for it, the kid can't hit from these distances, consistently.
I would rather go for it on fourth and short anytime when the field goal would be 40 yd plus. I love Joey, but he has crap accuracy over 40-42 yds.
As for the touchbacks, I want to see them dribble an onsides from the normal position. I think that would catch the other team off guard more if he keeps up 100% through the endzone.
If we are going to have freshmen and walk onn on KO then I prefer Slye keep booting them through the EZ. Guaranteed no td returns. We should be going forgot on 4th and short any time we are inside the opponent 35 unless 3 wins it and time is short.
Sure, I am in this same camp. A missed field goal at that range = good field position for the opposition.
FIFY
Thanks, I figured I was undershooting him a bit. Frankly, he looks like he is closer to sandwhiching the ball between the uprights on kickoffs than he does on 40 yard+ field goals.
I go for it on 4th-and-short in my opponent's territory even with a kicker that is accurate from distance. The numbers have shown this over and over, and yet relatively few coaches actually go for it. They are much too conservative on 4th down, and fans are way too critical when they do and don't make it.
I agree. I also really really want an offense where I can confidently say we can get at least 4 yards on any play, whether it's on 1st down or 4th.
Georgia Tech seems to be the one team that really picked up on going for it on fourth and short.
I am hoping that we get back to the faster play we had against Liberty. It seemed like our play in the first quarter against Tenn was also fast and when we started slowing down things went bad. Or things slowed down because things went horribly wrong.
I think tempo have been fine in both games. At Bristol, I think it was slower at times to give the defense a breather and to get the offense more focused (fumbling, etc.) on a drive. That's how I perceive it. Fuente and Cornelson seem to be keen on tempo, much more than what we have been used to seeing at Lane.
So a roughly 63% chance of continuing our bowl streak? D for Diploma!
Another way to frame the fumble issue: Last year, across FBS football, the average rate for losing fumbles was about 0.68 per game with a standard deviation of about 0.25. We are currently at 4.5. Assuming fumbles lost per game is a normally distributed random variable, and last year's data is representative, we are currently 15 standard deviations from the mean. Most z-score tables/calculators stop at 6. It is an anomaly among anomolies, and there is no way it is sustained.
Let us pray
As a fellow stats geek... an outlying outlier's outlier...
As a Hokie fan for 30 years...
Just sayin'...
Ladies and gentlemen: The internet has been won.
Fucking leg for whatever that means.
Assuming fumbles lost per game is a normally distributed random variable, and last year's data is representative, we are currently 15 standard deviations from the mean.
Please tell me this means we will not fumble again for six years.
With all I have read here since the loss, the fumbles, the penalties..there has not been too much talk about the punting which I think was in the mid 30's..UT punter was in the mid 40's..just another area needing improvement..
I bitched on Ludwig in another thread. Someone pointed out that he only had one really bad punt. The rest were at least north of 30 yards.
via rogue_nine9
Ya know, that one he rugby-styled around our own 15 yard line which seemed to be a free touchdown for UT when they recovered. This was probably our most solid defensive stand, even after a roughing the passer call on 3rd and long to give UT another try. Maybe we should avoid rugby style punts within our own 20, considering the increase in chance it hits somebody during air time and our limited 2016 history of fumble recoveries.
A pretty good article here by Sean Labar of the Virginia Pilot.
main takeways which I like:
We just need to play smart. They've been coached, so do want you've been coached to do! The O line must maintain control, even against the power of BC, playing smart can use them to OUR advantage!
GO HOKIES!
This post is so awesome that it has caused me to read many of Joel Smith's past posts. They all remind me of the last time I went to Churchill Downs and found out that there was a speed rating for each horse on the racing forms. It finally dawned on me that we had been betting on too many slow horses. After reading Joel's posts I no longer have any illusions about where reality lives.