One quarter of Virginia Tech's football season is in the books. The Hokies decisively won the games they were favored in (Liberty, Boston College, ECU), and dropped the Battle of Bristol to Tennessee by 3 scores. By Vegas' mark, and most preseason prognostications, Tech's initial quartet of games went by the books.
With that said TKP, based on what you've seen on the field, have your expectations for the remainder of Tech's 2016 campaign changed? If so, what was your projection before the start of the Justin Fuente era, and what is it now? Also, what have you seen from the Hokies that spurred a shift in your outlook?
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yes. We stand a very good chance to win more than 6 games and going to the ACCCG isn't out of the question.
What changed my perspective is...everything. This team is fired up in every facet of the game. We are an absolute thrill to watch now. Our O coupled with Bud's D...look out ACC.
*happily eats crow*
edit- to clarify, I was sorta pessimistic coming into this season because of how our last three years went. I thought we'd have a lot of growing pains and deficiencies, and were looking at 5-7 wins tops. I still blame Lefty.
I expect us to win the rest or games and roll through UT in a playoff rematch!!
If UT makes the playoffs, then it means they beat aTm and Bama then beat probably Bama again in the SEC CG. I don't see it happening.
They could likely split with Bama and get in if only loss. Don't you want to see UT Bama 3 times in one season?
I would be for that just because Bama would lost at least two times this year...
Dream scenario.
Quarter of the season with four games in the books eh?
4/12=33%
4/15=26%
I see what you did there.
Yes, the ceiling seems higher than initially expected. The games we've won
seemed like they'd be wins, but something along the lines of 30-15 for ECU
or a similar score for BC.
Offense scoring a lot more than expected and defense locked down.
I think 11 regular season wins isn't unbelievable. However, I think it's far more likely we finish 8-4. All bets are off if we continue to dominate like we have the past two games. We will run the table if that happens. We are still early in the Fuente era and we have already seen enormous strides in what Coach wants to do. In short, I have no idea what to expect going forward. So far this has been a lot of fun though.
Yes, but mostly due to the fact that the rest of our opponents aren't as good as I thought they would be.
- ND and Syracuse don't have a defense.
- While Pitts offense is better they're defense is average so far.
- UNC is still explosive but defense has regressed.
- Georgia tech, Duke, and uva have serious issues.
-Miami seems tough but we'll have to see how this week goes.
I thought 7 or 8 wins preseason but now I would be disappointed with less than 9. As long as we protect the ball we should be fine.
we'll see where their D goes from here. their current dc was relieved of his duties
I've been watching college football for a lot of years. I have a rather strong opinion that the prior week opponent can make a HUGE difference in what kind of game you get from a team. We also get Miami and UNC after they each plays FSU, so they'll be coming off a very physical game. Pitt gets 11 days to prepare and we're at their place, so it will be tougher.
We get UNC after a bye week and Miami after playing Syracuse. I'm not saying they are guaranteed W's, but I think out schedule sets up well.
I'm excited about the product coming to life. It looked great on paper with a lock down D and a high production offense. I'm optimistic for the most part but still nervous about Pitt, UNC, ND, Miami, and oddly enough
wakeEdit: I fucked up again
We don't play Wake this year.
Until the ACC Championship game
That Wake, they'll get after ya
Feel good about the UNC game and looking forward to being there. only questionable games for me are Pitt and Miami. Pitt only because it's Pitt and I was there at Heinz field in 2001 for that blow out. Miami looks good and we haven't played them well in recent years.
Yes. My confidence level is a lot higher.
I see lots of Team but there are still improvements to be made.
We are on track for what was my best case scenario. I am raising my expectations by a game to 9-3, and feel like I may be picking low, when at 8-4 I thought I was picking high, even though I thought we would be 3-1 now. Evans looks better than I expected. D is playing a little better, probably because I under-estimated what having an Offence would do for the D. Would like to see the depth get to a level where we can trust them before we get up by 30, we do seem to be improving game-game..
Right now my expectations have skyrocketed. By the time the UNC game rolls around I should have tempered them a bit. But at this point I see no reason why we can't roll into the ACCCG a 1-loss team.
Yes and no. I originally predicted about 5 losses this season and while I don't see 4 teams on the remaining schedule any more, I don't think Tech is as good as they have looked these past 2 games.
The team is worlds ahead of where the previous regime would have them right now, but the only time they have really been punched in the mouth is against UT and Liberty. One of those games was at home against a far less talented team, the other game saw us embarrass ourselves on national TV. Again, no way we do this well with the old staff, but I'm waiting to fully board the hype train until we show a somewhat complete performance against a solid opponent outside of Lane Stadium.
Also, the last few years have really pounded in that old saying of "it's never as good as it feels and never as bad as it seems." I've seen that a lot from the optimist on this board the past few years, but it does work for the realists as well.
I see what you mean, but we put up 49 on an elite tier defense and held a very good offense to 17 points.
Liberty was an extended scrimmage as we got the nerves and kinks out of our system. Tennessee exposed us to our flaws and we have seemed to have fixed them.
UNC should be the ultimate litmus test, but I would say that we *have* looked as good as we have played. Keep in mind that we benched our first stringers in BOTH games for the last quarter.
When was the last time we've been able to do that?
I don't know if BC is still an "elite defense". There is a reason harbaugh hired their old coordinator. They're still likely good, but not elite I don't think.
That said, I'm worried about our running game. A slightly concerning amount of our run game has consisted of Evans running and one 70yd McMillan run. I'd like to see more consistent chunk plays on the ground from our rbs. Otherwise if Evans ever has a bad day, we could be in trouble against a peer level team
We Abe eclipsed 200 rushing yards a game except for against ECU where had 160 yards rushing.
The running game is deseptive in this offense because so many players run with the ball. It makes it really tough on the defense to stop them.
You aren't going to see a true RB gaining 100 yards a game I this offense. The run plays help setup everythijgnwe do in the pass game.
I believe French pointed this out in his offseason Memphis/Fuente film breakdowns, but Fuente runs a slightly different scheme to typical run games. He uses screens and swing passes in place of some outside runs to spread the defense out a bit more, so while we show having more passing yards, I would be curious to see the % of passing yards where the receiver caught the ball behind the line of scrimmage.
My expectations going into the season were simple: Drink much bourbon.
Those expectations have not changed, and I do not expect them to.
Seriously though? No, w-l expectations haven't changed. I think the Tn game showed us that the fear of growing pains was well founded. Habits don't change overnight, but take experience to implement and constant vigilance to maintain.
2nd half defense miscues against ECU took away another donut, and show how when you lose focus, ho quickly you can lose control of your destiny in a game, final score notwithstanding.
I had us pegged for 8 or 9 wins. I think we could easily run the table if we continue to do the right things, avoid injuries, and minimize the mistakes.
But that's a big ask for a team with a new O-scheme, and with depth issues.
We could absolutely throttle every single team left on our schedule.
We probably won't, but it's a very real possibility.
This is my outlook for the rest of the (regular) season.
Having seen what we are when we take care of the ball, and having seen other teams play now... if we drop more than one game between now and December, I'm going to be rather disappointed.
I think the season has gone well and as expected with our record . That Tennessee loss just hurts because we killed ourself with all the fumbles. I do believe our run game needs to get better . I absolutely love our d line and the backup tackles of walker /settle shows no drop off . overall defensively I believe we will keep getting better especially in the secondary. Alexander, Reynolds, and edmunds are still young and will get better. Turnovers on offense I believe will dictate how we do the rest of the season rather than a lack of offense previously . Looking forward to NC and see where we stand .
We lost our one game because of fumbles. We have since fixed the fumbling issue.
The game has changed. By my estimation, there's only one thing left to do...
What a Classic!
Oh just photoshop Heather Dinich's head on there standing next to Fuente and we have a winner
Have to use photoshop. I don't know that we have enough cardboard for the neck section to make a real Dinich cutout.
I'm extremely optimistic right now. I haven't enjoyed VT football as much as I have the past two weeks in a long time. Evans is on track to end up being one of the best QBs to ever play at VT. Yesterday was such a complete team win, especially with the dominant special teams. It's so exciting to see what we can do pairing Bud's defense with an explosive offense.
Let's see what happens over the next month. We need to see how the team responds to the bye week and then two consecutive ACC road games. If we can get through that in convincing fashion, I honestly think the Miami game will decide the Coastal. We beat them, and I'm fully onboard the hype train. Spirits are definitely through the roof right now, but we will learn a lot more about this team over the next few weeks. As Fuente says, let's go 1-0 against UNC.
I can't really say much more than everyone else in this thread has already said about every game seeming winnable from here on in. The excitement level is through the roof, but I'm keeping my expectations about the same. My expectations have only slightly raised from 7-8 wins to 8-10 wins. Lots of football left to be played vs some talented, albeit inconsistent, opponents.
Expectations are a little higher. As a few others have stated, this team is playing on a different level than the last few years and I am enjoying the home games for the first time in a long while...a few years.
While before I was content to win 6 or possibly 7 games and get a bowl for the streak, now the sky is the limit. Will we win the Coastal? We should. I would love to play Louisville in ACCCG. Not saying we are a playoff caliber of team. We are not, but the plans are there and it's up to the players to reach goals that seemed impossible last season. This coaching staff feels competent in every phase. No offense to Beamer, but the team and staff are set on the right course. It feels good right now.
I originally had us at 7-5 hoping for 8-4. My expectation is 10-2 now because I have seen a much needed improvement in the defense and the O is as advertised. I think the chemistry on this team is much better than I originally expected.
My prediction is we will have one more major learning experience like Bristol. The rest of the Coastal isn't as good as I thought it would be so Even at 9-3 I think we have a shot to make it to the ACCCG.
Gone from 15-0 to 14-1.
As long as that 15th game is still a win; that's all that matters
Miami, Pittsburg, & UNC are the teams I fear the most.
However, our defense is miles ahead better then UNCs and Pitt right now. I have a feeling we drop 40 on Pitt with a high powered offense. Miami is my biggest concern. They are more of a wild card for me. Not sure what to make of them as complete team.
Of course I hate GT. Playing them is never easy.
I don't know anything about Miami yet. I don't hold a road win over Appy St as that telling. My guess is that the Miami players who have been inconsistent in the past who are now coached by a guy who was inconsistent at UGA with better talent will yield a wildly inconsistent team.
So you're saying, if something is consistently inconsistent, one would expect that the inconsistency to continue on consistently, for the rest of time?
Preseason game-by-game was:
VT 57, Liberty 3
Tennessee 24, VT 20
VT 30, BC 6
VT 40, ECU 17
UNC 34, VT 30
VT 41, SU 20
VT 27, Miami 20
VT 20, Pitt 10
VT 37, Duke 13
VT 39, GT 22
ND 17, VT 10
VT 34, UVA 17
I will stick with it. ND game likely won't be that low scoring but I still have that as a likely loss even with how they are playing currently.
If Notre Dame plays like they did against Duke when they play us, I will be wildly disappointed if we walk away from South Bend with a loss.
I'd feel better about ND if VanGorder were still there. Given what Kelly said post-game that team is either going to rally or mail in the rest of the season.
Notre Dame is straight garbage. There are a lot more difficult teams on our schedule. I'm seeing a 4 win season and a clean house for them at the end of the season.
Yes, but not too much.
Fuente took a team with much less talent and got them in the top 25. I expected the same with VT, considering Fuente was inheriting NFL-caliber receivers, talented RBs, and an experienced O-line. The only question mark was Evans, but his JuCo highlights suggested he was going to be special.
I expect VT to be ranked between 16-25 when bowl season arises. Whether that's 1st or 2nd in the coastal, I'm not sure.
Yes, I now expect to win 16 games this year. #16in16
Combination of better than expected QB play and weaker teams in the schedule raises my expectations from 7-5 to 9-3. I had TN, UNC, Miami, Pitt and ND as losses at the beginning of the season. The only expected remaining loss I see is Miami. I think we split UNC and Pitt and win against ND.
Slightly OT but we are "ranked 30th" with 38 votes in the AP poll.
Stay hungry Hokies.
I had at least 8-4 to start the year, I am going to tentatively leave it at that. Because Miami, UNC, and Pitt still scare the crap out of me.
I thought 8-4 was a realistic improvement, but based on what I've seen so far there's no reason to think 10 wins isn't possible. We've crushed teams in the last two weeks that have given us fits recently. Additionally, we gave Tennessee that game with those fumbles... who knows what happens if we hold on the ball in that game.
Another factor though is how our opponents look, UNC still has no D, Pitt hasn't lived up to the hype, and Notre Dame is a dumpster fire right now. Miami however looks to be legit but hasn't played much competition as of yet. If we can just keep improving and cleaning up the little things, I don't see any reason we can't retake the Coastal this year.
Pitt is where most thought at this point Ok state and NC are not bad losses and both on last play of game. Duzzi has time to schemo to help those corners. Reminds me of where VT been the last few seasons. Trying to play o man coverage with average at best corners. Surprise is they averaging like 35 points a game post Boyd.
I was expecting another 6-6 season figuring it would take a year or two to get his system and recriticorns in place. Looks like I am going to be happily incorrect and 8-4 or even 9-3 seem very plausible.
Well I know we won't lose next weekend...that's as far as my clairvoyance goes!
Here is a head scratcher for all. I thought of this and am not sure it is completely correct but may have some legs to it.
Bud and his guys:
We have noticed a huge up tick in their play. Yes the next class of DBU is being born with another year's experience and we are deeper across the board BUT...
Could it be that part of the reason for this ( it would never be said) is the new FU "Twilight Zone" offense has
the defense feedingoff this reborn O that has sadly let them down for years. In other words, did the years of O'Cainspring and Scotty L I'M at BC pull Bud and his crew down the sewer with them? LIke who GAS, we can't do enough!
This is carrying over to ST also as we witnessed. The whole team has had a shot of Penicillin and is feeling froggy again! Yeah like "lets go get some".
My point is and I am not glad to say this but over the last few years the entire program has been in a state of malaise and that this new regime has reinvigorated EVERYONE!
Just a thought.
I would imagine that Fu's offense would have a great psychological benefit on the D and ST. The D can be aggressive, and when they give up that occasional TD, the Fu offense can reciprocate. Without fear of offensive futility, the D will be more aggressive, leading to more sacks, TFL, fumbles, and interceptions.
It also has a cascading effect. If the VT goes up a few scores, the opposing offense starts taking more risks, leading to bigger Defensive plays.
The same could be said for the special teams. A perfect example would be the sack on that fake punt this past weekend.
Bud still out out dominant defenses when we had a bad offenses. I think the offenses effect on the defense is a bit over stated around here.
Bud has always wanted to make teams one-dimensional, but has always had to do by shutting down the run/short passing game without much help. I can help but think that when teams get down by 20++++ it tends to contribute to making them one dimensional, and therefore does have an effect on the defense.
I think a positive change on one side of the ball can certainly create a positive change on the other side. It stands to reason that a suddenly effective offense can certainly fuel a good defense. Same thing is going on in Philly with the Eagles. The offense suddenly is effective and able to move the sticks regularly, and the defense goes from good to dominating.
And in both cases (Hokies & Eagles) TOP has benefited both Offenses greatly.
My expectations were ACCCG appearance and 10 wins. Now I can stand behind that with actual supporting evidence and not just a combination of bourbon and homerism. Would not be surprised to hit 10 wins before Thanksgiving. And hell, if Lamar Jackson gets injured, we'd even have a shot at winning the ACC. Playoffs are still possible.
I'd rather think that this team could beat Louisville WITH Jackson, and not think of him getting injured... I hate to think of gaining based on someone else's misfortune.
To me, the only way we, or frankly anyone, beats Louisville is if Lamar ain't playing. Dude is the real deal. I'm not wishing him ill, as I'm definitely on the LJ hype train, but objectively, I don't think we beat Louisville if he's active.
Before the season, my expectations were:
Losses - UT, ND
50/50 - UNC, Pitt, Miami
+1 random loss out of ECU, GT, Duke
Wins - LU, BC, SU, UVA
for a 7 or 8 win season...with a 9-3 record being the "We had a great season" outcome.
The only change now would be to move ND down a notch because they aren't as good as advertised. Eight wins is my break even point and we might have a chance to get to the ACCCG if we get some good bounces.
While I think that we can win 10 or 11, in the reg season, I would be perfectly happy with an 8 or 9 W season (unless losing to LOLUVA made it a 9 W season). That opinion may change after we play UNC and Miami, but at this point, I'm doing my best to temper my expectations and 8-9 would be a serious improvement, esp with our OOC this year.
not really, was very confident in a ten win season i just didnt say anything. I always think we'll win at least ten games
In my opinion, if we reach 7 wins without a loss, we can reach 10. I initially predicted 9 wins including bowl game. Now I'm thinking 9 win regular season. Between UNC, PITT & ND, we oughta to be able to win one. Last season, at times the Miami game was close.
I totally expected more growing pains on offense. Its so nice seeing the Hokie offense run like a well oiled machine after seemingly fixing all the early fumbles. The defense is a lot better than I expected Mook, Rell, and Adonis have matured so much from last season and can only get better from here on out. I love seeing big Tim Settle eating up interior lineman. I think 8-10 wins is a very realistic outcome for this team if we can continue at this level. Now its time to get rest and heal up on the bye week and get ready for a great test vs UNC.
Expectations? No.
But the anxiety as to whether our offense will be able to function has been replaced with excitement to see what the offense can do.
So it's better.
My pre-season expectation was 8 wins. I stand by that. We're about to enter a very tough stretch of schedule with consecutive road games followed by a short week and a game against a traditional conference foe who is also playing well at the moment. Then we have to turn around again to play on the road at night against a team which has been a proverbial thorn in our side for decades. At a venue we always seem to struggle playing in. As much as I want to believe this team is invincible with the way they are playing I just can't. I'm expecting the rest of the ACC to catch on and start building schemes to slow our offense down.
Here's a little something else to chew on. We have scored quickly and early in our last 3 games to take 2 score leads before the end of the first quarter. This team hasn't really had to play from behind since Bristol (and we all know how that turned out)....I worry how this team will respond when they don't score first.
This is my one concern as well. If something happens and we manage to fall behind someone like UNC or Miami by 2 scores, how will the team react? Hopefully the cascade of failures against Tennessee was a combination of bad luck, early season jitters, and adjusting to a new coach's system. Two of those are in the team's control and, by all appearances, they've adjusted quite well. But when you outscore two opponents 103-17, you haven't exactly been fairly challenged. How will they react when someone is able to keep the score tied or actually take the lead?
Pre-season I predicted anywhere between 6-8 wins, but probably closer to 6. Now I'm thinking anywhere from 7-9. We'll probably drop one that we should win going forward. Looking at our schedule I'm hopeful that we can take 2 of UNC/Miami/Pitt but we need to get at least one. I'd love to see us take all 3 of Syracuse/Duke/GT but I just have a feeling we'll manage to drop one of them. Change in my preseason prediction: I think we beat ND. They just look an absolute mess right now. Then we put a cap on UVA's 1-11 season.
what was encouraging about that UT game was that the play calling was still there to put us in a position to win even when we were behind. Assuming our players have grown to trust the coaches more, I don't see us making the same mistakes that shot us in the foot that game. So even if we get behind, I think we can methodically claw our way back into any game.
It's amazing the possibilities when your team has an offense.
So far, we're tracking about where I thought we'd be, though with more impressive quality of wins, and with a loss that very possibly could have been a win.
The real test of this team will be consistency. Notable challenges will be limiting penalties and turnovers, and establishing a running game.
I expect we will lose two more games all year. One of those might be the ACCCG.
My thoughts before the season were 8-4. I think that is still my expectation but I very well think we could be 9-3 in the end. We are playing well but we haven't played anyone real tough yet outside of UT and it is hard to gauge that game because we screwed ourselves so badly in it.
I said 7 wins early on, so we'd have to go 4-5 the rest of the way to match that... I think the bar is now set between 8 and 9 wins on the year, with the next couple games determining how realistic a 10 win season could be.
That said, I originally thought that we would struggle on offense until we found our groove, and then we would begin to see signs of an offense that worked toward the latter half of the year. Boy was I wrong. We have an offense that can and will hang 50 on a lesser team with ease, as we have already shown. I'm still disappointed at how that Tennessee game played out, because there's a very real possibility we come away with the win without all those fumbles, but even in that losing effort, we moved the ball at will and were in scoring position all night long. I'm really looking forward to seeing how we compare to our ACC brethren, because if we can keep up this level of play, I don't see another game on the schedule we don't have a very real possibility of winning.
Expected us to be 3-1. Didn't expect this kind of offensive output. Defense to me is still not nearly as good as the rankings indicate. UNC is going to put up a ton of yards as will PITT, so think that will normalize a bit over the next few weeks. Both of those are very winnable games although PITT at PITT always scares me based off of our past, but obviously Fuente wasn't involved and he put a quick halt to our ECU-woes.
Can we go back and play Tennessee again, please?
I'd be willing to buy tickets to a do-over.
Just as long as it isn't at Bristol. Fuck that place. I'd rather have a true road game in Neyland.
Apart from the score, I had a pretty good experience.
Yea, put it on at a home-home series next time. But damn - I'd put our team the last 2 games up against Tennessee again - we beat ourselves that game.
It is what it is - we've got UNC next at the future Lane Stadium South, and I really like our momentum heading into October.
I honestly don't know. I didn't know what my preseason predictions were and I don't know what to think now. Honestly I'm just enjoying each week and seeing how well the team is playing.
So far, I am very pleased with the offense. They are way ahead of schedule, but still need to run the ball more effectively. O'line needs to toughen up a bit. QB and WR's are playing extremely well. On D, I still don't like the play at MLB. We are giving up a lot of yards up the middle. Our DB's have played better but they need to tighten up the coverage, remember some of the offenses we have played so far, their receivers just dropped passes where thay were wide open. I would say we have a good shot at 9 wins and 10 is not far out of reach. Possible ACCCG, is there if the Coastal beats itself up.
My expectation is always to win the ACC, so nothing has changed so far.
Honestly, This is where I expected them to be, with the exception being that I thought they'd beat UT.
Things that are surprisingly pleasing - Evans back shoulder fade, Tim Settle's presence in the middle against the run, Marshawn's minutes, and Mook Reynolds.
Things that I worry about - run blocking, Brandon Facyson possibly being a coverage liability, and punting.
Offense is ahead of schedule and I have been pleasantly surprised. I'm not shocked by that though because I was pretty bullish on our offensive revival being immediate, but it's been better than I even expected. I think that a loss to Pitt at this point is a disappointment, their defense is porous and the team is less talented than us across the board. I think Miami and UNC have been less impressive than we have, although Trubisky was impressive last game. I think if we lose to those teams it's "okay" but I think the team is playing well enough to where there aren't any games on the schedule we can't win.
I want us to capitalize on as many wins as we can this season and should be firmly in contention for the Coastal, if not win it. We almost certainly lose Ford and Bucky after this year and we need to take advantage of their talent while we have it.
They'll lose to Pitt because they always lose to Pitt and usually in stupid fashion. I don't think Fuente's had time to fully fumigate the program.
I'm not buying this.
We also used to play to the level of the competition and we would let lesser talented teams hang around way too long and have it end up biting us in the ass way too often. 2014 and 2015 we sleepwalk the ECU games and allow them to jump on us with a flurry of points that we can't come back from, try as we might. 2016, we don't just jump out on teams, but we go for the killshot.
This is a different era of Hokie football, my friend. Trash the historical trends going forward, especially for series where our inability to do anything on offense has historically hurt us.
It's going to take more than two good games before I start believing things have changed. After all people were flying the Mission Accomplished banner on Loeffler after the Ohio State game.
and didn't we trounce Furman and Purdue in back to back weeks last year too?
Only the biggest Homer thinks we are there yet. You're only as good as you play each week. What you said above is that we will lose to Pitt because we always lose to Pitt and in a stupid manner. I know what you meant, but if that were true, why play anymore games with them? Though it's still early and a good many of his players are still here, a Beamer prepared team will not be taking the field that day we do play. What happens with Pitt happens this year, not last, not next year either. In the meantime, we have skUNCk to play next. Fundamentals and teaching moments aside, that's the opponent we need to concentrate on.
"I know what you meant, but if that were true, why play anymore games with them? "
The ACC lets teams pick their own conference schedule?
Rhetorical question, not literal. And I should have said any more, or better perhaps phrased it "why do we even play them if it's a given that we will lose?"
I got a case of the Sads because you made it evident that we are already a quarter of the way through. I feel like the season is already too short. :(
Either join with us or be run over by us !!! Folks believe it . This coaching staff is the truth and JF is the real deal.
Think, a Juco QB with 13 TDs and 1 int ,that is coaching and that is playing within yourself. We just smoked 2 teams and the games were over by halfway thru the 3rd quarter . Corny and FU are the real deals, maybe best QB coaches in the entire USA. This offensive staff and the improvements the defensive staff to go along with Bud is truly the best we could hope for . This team is for real and now is believing in the scheme and improves a little every day, momentum and confidence are surging . JF said he is tired of hearing about other teams and is ready to start hearing about us. That doesn't sound like someone who doesn't think they can achieve things, he wants to be noticed. I know BC and ECU aren't top 20 teams but they aren't the type of teams you crush easily . ECU has and excellent offense QB ect. and BC has a very good D . JF knows how important the UNC game will be and with and extra week to prepare we will be ready and locked and loaded down there. Everyone can talk about Miami, ND , UNC and Pitt but I think we are better right now than any of them . 450 yds and 41points per game who picked those numbers ? We may not win out but we are going to dish out some butt whoppins on some un suspecting foes going forward . We are back !!!!! Remember JF and Cornelius have set 46 all time school records at the places they have been and are getting ready to set some more here. Thank you Whit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!This is going to be fun times . GO HOKIES !!!!!!!!!
snickers
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2016-virginia-tech-advanced-stati...
At the beginning of the year the advanced metrics had them at 51% to win 7-8 games. Now it's 58% to win 8-9 games. Also other than Miami their odds of winning against every opponent have increased (I have the numbers from the Football Outsiders almanac, I don't know if they're available online).
I still have some concerns because the offense hasn't been super-efficient. I'm not sure you can live just hitting big play after big play. The numbers on the offense reflect that- they're middling according to the fancy stats. If the defense and special teams continue to play at a high level it might work. They're also due for some good turnover luck.
That's what's really exciting, this team still has so much room to improve.
anOSU seems to do just fine hitting one big play after big play. When Auburn was rolling with Cam and Nick Marshall, the same could be said. UT and Ol Miss when they've played well do the same. When they don't play well, it's as much about their execution (e.g., Dobbs is incredibly streaky in the passing game for UT) as anything.
OSU's efficiency numbers are quite good:
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2016-ohio-state-advanced-statisti...
2nd in efficiency this year, 86th in explosiveness. They were 10th in efficiency last year, 73rd last year. The idea is that good teams aren't going to give up 40 yard plays and you're going to have to string together 10-play drives.
From what I've seen, those big plays loosen up the D, to allow the 10 play drives. Even Bama hits some big plays, to loosen up the D. Vick was the last time that I felt like we really took shots down field. It's amazing how much things opened up when that happened.
At the same time, I'm not sure the stats exist, but I'd wager that the proportion of drives that end in a TD, included 10+ plays is relatively small. The majority of drives that end in a TD will either have 1 big play of 40+ yds or multiple plays of 15+ yds.
Vick had such a cannon that it was easier for the receivers to catch the ball 40 yards downfield than at 5 yards.
Coming into the season, I thought our toughest games would be Notre Dame and Tennessee.
Right now, I think our toughest games will be Louisville and Miami.
We are still averaging near 200 yds per game on the ground. The teams we
have played so far game plan would be to shut the run and make a new QB with new
scheme beat you with pass plays and Evans has . Miami has really not played enough
decent competition to get a feel for them. I think VT down to ND , UNC , Pitt and Miami
and I like where we fall on the schedule for them and us for the most part . I also think
we are as good and maybe better than them by the time the game gets played . Still
we are way ahead of what I thought we would be at this point. We still have to prove
we can get it done on the road and win a close game .
14-1 ACC CHAMPS AND NATIONAL CHAMPS. Evans wins Heisman after beating Lamar Jackson in the ACCCG and stays at Tech for senior year along with Bucky and Ford to win a second title.
I think I pegged us for 7-8 wins before the season, and I would say that I expect 8-9 now, so a change in expectations yes, albeit a small one. I really don't know how much we know about the team. Yes, the offense is significantly improved and we have terrific talent on the outside and in the backfield. And the defense has made more plays than I thought, but has also given up a few that make you pause.
As with most teams at this point (short of a team like Ole Miss that has played a gaunlet in its first 4), I think it's hard to get a true read. VT hasn't played a true road game and has yet to play in a close game in the 4th quarter. The back-to-back trips to UNC and Syracuse will tell a lot. Will the team be ready to play in two opposing stadiums (even with so-so fan support) in back to back weeks, including one longer flight? My answer is yes; short of the ball security issues at Tennessee, VT has been ready for what it has seen. But the competition will stiffen as the team enters conference play.
When I did my preseason preview for TKP, I put us at 8-4 with losses to UT, UNC, PITT, and ND. I called the Miami game as the biggest game of the year.
I now fully trust in my gut reaction that we would have 8 wins, but I'm now starting to see the potential for 9 or maybe even 10 if the cards fall right.
Let's assume VT beats the teams the "should": Syracuse, Duke, GT, LOLUVA. That puts us at 7 total wins. That would leave VT needing one win from UNC, Pitt, Miami, and ND to get to that 8 win mark.
UNC and Pitt has continually shown us major problems on their defenses, respectively. Both have good offenses, but the chance to score is there. Miami looks the part of a top-15 team, but they are largely untested. Suddenly Notre Dame doesn't seem such a daunting road game, given Dukes recent win.
I now think VT gets to at least 9 wins, beating UNC and Pitt. I'll go 9-3 this year, which is a major step in the right direction.
We're all talking somewhat rationally, but just a glance at the tracker (which I can't keep up with during a bye week!) tells me the hype train has already gone plaid. Take over Keenan and spur this team on to victory, and we'll really have something to talk about.
Watch out for Duke. Just sayin'.
All homerism aside, I expect this team to win the Coastal and compete well in the ACCCG, barring injury to a certain QB who is making the most of his starting opportunity. Since we are losing a host of key contributors this year including Sam, Isaiah, Bucky(probably) Clark, Williams, Ekanimal and others, I feel like we could even see some regression next year. VT is very talented and motivated this season to win, and winning the ACCCG, one game at a time, is my expectation.