I've been seeing a lot of people (especially UNC and UVA fans) discrediting Tech's win this weekend by saying that it wasn't a fair game playing in the rain, etc. and that the rain is the main reason UNC lost - not because VT is the better team.
I decided to dive into this a little today (slow day at work). We can see from the stat sheets that UNC's offense was very sub-par, putting up the numbers below (from Hokiesports.com):
RUSHING
29 attempts
73 total yards
2.5 yards per attempt
PASSING
13-33-2 (39% completion)
58 total yards
1.8 yards per attempt
4.5 yards per completion
After seeing all the comments about how the rain severely affected UNC's passing game, I decided to rewatch the game and record each of their passing plays to try and determine what could've been weather related, vs Bud's Defense.
Of the 20 incompletions thrown by Mitch Trubisky:
3 were overthrown/underthrown and the receiver could not make a play
2 were overthrown/underthrown and the receiver could make a play (diving/jumping) but did not hold on
2 were tipped passes
2 were INT's (one thrown straight into Motu's chest and one 50*/50 ball won by Stroman)
7 were broken up
4 were dropped passes that hit the hands of the receiver.
Yes the rain played a large part, and one could argue that they are the sole reason for the two fumbles and fumbled snap on a punt for UNC; however when rewatching and really focusing on it, I firmly believe that VT still would've won. Only one of those dropped passes didn't have any defender within a few yards and could've turned into a significant gain. If those four were caught Trubisky still would've been held to a 51% completion percentage after completing 79% thus far this season.
There was constant pressure on Trubisky with 3 sacks, two tipped balls, and multiple hurry-ups/scrambles. I counted 8 times that Trubisky had to abandon the pocket to try and make a play due to the pressure from the defense (3 of those were caught passes for a gain).
I believe that this defense really is verging on elite status, and it's not because 'we haven't played anyone.' That is two top-40 offenses in a row, averaging 28 PPG (ECU) and 34 PPG (UNC) held to a TOTAL of 20 points.
Comments
Oh I saw in person the whining about how the game shouldn't be played. Bud has had to Defense in worse conditions than what we saw on Saturday. It really just wasn't that bad.
We played in the same weather as them and put up 34. It's not like the rain stopped when we had the ball and picked up when they did, it was the same conditions for everyone.
In fact, I thought our first three possessions were directly influenced by the rain. The initial 3 and out was certainly was and I thought the field goals we put up should have been extended to possible TD drives, but weren't due to weather related drops.
Not to mention that both of the INT's Trubinsky threw had nothing to do with the rain. Stroman's pick was one where the pass was there and he just made a great play to fight for the ball. Motu's pick was a case where Trubinsky didn't even see him...
This, this, this... So we ran on something like 75% of our plays... and our running game is our weak spot!
After reading French's article, the weather certainly didn't help our 5 defenders in the box stop rushing attacks with 6 blockers and the runner. UNCheat was flat out beat at the LOS. Which let Bud continue bracketing Switzer and #13.
Just remember, it only rained on one side of the line of scrimmage.
The side above the ground?
This why it is called the outside. Its farther out from the center. It typically does not rain on the inside. Guess they don't teach science at UNC.
Fixed.
UNC didn't come for school!
No I think I saw eleven small individual rain clouds only over top the UNC players on the field like below:
The weather was a big factor and it probably messed up UNC's offense. That being said it wasn't a surprise. It was known all week that this game would likely be played in terrible weather.
Exactly, this whining from those fanbases should be focused on the UNC coaches ability to prep their team for this game. If there is any truth to their whining then that is where they need to focus their complaining. It's really weak sauce.
Exactly, both teams knew what the weather was going to be like. Fuente adjusted accordingly and got his team ready to play -- the Heels didn't.
We had 66 rushing attempts (compared to an average of 47/game up to that point) to their 29 attempts.
We only threw the ball 17 times (7 completions; 41%) to their 33 times (13 completions; 39%), yet gained 30% more yards through the air.
If your offense is that one dimensional, or your coaching that stubborn, then, NO, you're just not a great team. And you will be exposed by a great defense, regardless of the weather.........
That's the point I was trying to make with this post. After rewatching and seeing what all went down, I don't see enough evidence to say that if the weather was good we wouldn't have won by as much as we did. I can understand the arguement that the dropped balls and MAYBE under/overthrows are due to the weather, but for the most part there was nothing there all game and we constantly had pressure in Trubisky's face.
Furthermore, if they dropped and over/underthrew passes because of the weather, then we dropped and over/underthrew passes because of the weather too. And that's not just tit for tat... that's fact.
Last bowl season Baylor lost not only their starting QB, but 2nd string too. Briles developed a game plan where Baylor didn't throw the ball. They ran for 645 yds and put up 49 points (against UNC, I might add). If the hat is the offensive genius that UNC fans claim that he is, he would have figured out a way to get yards and points, that didn't require a vertical passing game.
I'm not an offensive genius, but I could have told him early in the week that the passing game wasn't going to get it done.
Missng Hood in that weather was big but they still got dominated
Logan is about just as good. Their problem wasn't missing a back it was not running the ball.
The best point I've seen about the conditions is both teams had
to play in them.
We're kidding ourselves if we don't admit that this game would have looked very different in better conditions. With that said, I still think we were in a great position to knock them off. UNC was given no favors when their schedule was created. The biggest take away I had was that Fuente coaches to the conditions and Fedora did not. Once we had them by two scores Bud was able to put an umbrella defense (no pun intended) on the field that could play the ball and not the man. A+ for the VT coaches in that game.
No doubt it would've been different, but the point I was trying to make here (which I think you agree with?) is that even if the weather was good, I don't see enough evidence to say that we wouldn't have still won by a few TD's. The only thing I believe could be attributed to weather would be the 4 dropped passes and MAYBE the under/overthrown balls, although those all came with a lot of pressure on the pocket. Their star receivers couldn't get much separation and it seemed like Bud always had an answer and at least one was defender was there.
There were also almost three additional INT's by VT during that game either off of tipped balls or good coverage.
Not to mention the fact that VT had some issues throwing the ball too. For example, there's no way Evans over throws Ford in the EZ, after the pick.
Agreed definitely been a better game. NC is built for a fast track
Which is a mistake. Late season and bowl season has weather.
Anytime another team starts complaining about their offense hurting more due to the weather, I just wonder if they missed ours executing similar plays in the same environment. Evans and Rogers managed a heck of a touchdown. Boykin busted a big one on Miami in 2009.
Sure their starting QB being less mobile than ours pushes the advantage further in our favor, but 31 points worth? ehhh. Biggest factor is that we outcoached them. It's why NC State beat ND too.
I think Dan and Ty of "The Solid Verbal" described it best in their last podcast. I'm paraphrashing, but essentially they opined that of all the rain games this weekend, VT was the most prepared for these conditions. Every team was sloppy. Many weather-related mistakes occured, but VT incorporated a game plan that best overcame the predictable sloppiness.
I agree, it was obvious in all three phases that VT incorporate specific plays that were efficient in this weather. VT ran the ball 75% of the time, but passed early in the second half with fresh balls with great results. Foster's D kept everything in front, and got their defenders to the ball. The Stroman punt play was ideal for the conditions: short snap, low pressure, easy to get off.
VT also did a lot of little things. VT changed their cleats at halftime. VT practiced all week with wet balls and constantly re-enforced proper grip.
This all adds up to a better prepared team due to better coaching and analytics, and players buying in and putting in the work to execute.
Woulda shoulda coulda can be played every week. The fact is, we would likely also have been much better on a fast track and to just assume it would have favored UNC over us is to disrespect our entire team, offense, defense and special teams. Conjecture is for coming games, not ones in the books. Who honestly knows our offense wouldn't have outscored them by even more with perfect conditions, especially given the quality of defense we are fielding so far this year.
People keep saying their offense was bothered by the rain, and it surely was, but their defense had to play in the same conditions as our defense also. The conditions also hampered our offense but it didn't matter as much because their D is trash. We still almost managed 300 yards of offense. In my opinion, with better conditions we would have hung 40+ on them and they would have managed somewhere in the 17-27 range. Either way, it doesn't matter. Game is over. People can whine as much as they want but it won't take that big ole L off their record.
Anyone crossing the Drillfield from December to March can attest to this.
30 mph winds, snowy, and sunny and 75. Yep.
been there, done that
Annnnd now I've got to go back to my dorm room.
Congrats on your 10,000th leg, sir!
Ok nobody give him anymore legs!!
I never expected my 10,000th leg to be brought on by Blacksburg Weather(TM).
I think that the Tenn game was a learning experience for the coaches and players. It's remarkable how funte has them focused. He's not overtly happy after these wins. Enjoy the moment but let's get back to work for the next game.
Oh and speaking of the rain, we still saw new stuff and wrinkles in the offense; Sam Rogers in the seam, Buck's deep route, replaying jet sweep to confuse unc. I like the plays and play calling. Something new every week. I like the short throws to tight ends and running backs, amazing how easy it looks but I know coach is fine tuning them every week
That seam pass to Rogers play was drawn up at halftime based on what UNC was showing in the first half.
#coaching
I think it was a travesty to not push all four games in NC back to Sunday. Not for the sake of football, but for the fans and first responders who had their plates full on Saturday. This was a major fail by NC state government, and the respective universities involved. And I think ESPN held much more sway in this than people are stating. It's all about the TV money.
That being said, once the game is on, it's on. We were totally prepared for it and UNC wasn't. We kicked butt.
shoulda played in blacksburg. There probably would have been more UNC fans in the stands that way.
I doubt this would have been acceptable due to the lack of home game revenue, and it was rainy in Blacksburg, too, wasn't it? Sunday was the best option, and somebody blew the call. After reading some of the UNC message boards, I'm sure it must have been Ron Cherry.
Because rules are rules...unless they don't benefit UNC. Just like NCAA bylaws and GPA standards.
And parking laws and...
Meh.
The Chapel Hill/Durham area was just a rainy day Saturday. ECU game last year was almost as bad.
I could maybe get behind you on the NC State game. It actually rained more in Raleigh, and their field sucks.
The ECU game last year was actually a good comparison. When it started REALLY raining in Greenville, the Hokies' momentum was crushed. It was palpable. Same thing happened to the Heels in the 3rd qtr Sat. Playing in the rain is really just a test of who can turn it into an advantage with prep and positive thinking. Hokies 1 / UNC 0 in that department.
The NC State field was a mess, that snap by the Notre Dame center where the ball didnt even budge was crazy.
This is all supposition. There is little evidence that playing the games hampered anything. For the most part, particularly in the middle of the state, it was just a very heavy rain storm - and little lightning - with the usual impacts of a very heavy rain storm. If there hadn't been a name attached to it, no one would have cared.
Largely it was just a major inconvenience for UNC fans and, to a lesser extent apparently, for VT fans.
As much as I hate Miami I hope their defense dominates UNCheat too just to shut them up a little.
Actually, the only response to the complainers is this:
Confusious once said, "It is better to build a bridge than a wall. When the time comes, it is easier to get over it.".........
If you don't want the weather to beat, don't attempt 33 passes in the rain. UNC didn't want to adapt, neither did Notre Dame and they both lost.
I appreciate the work the OP put in to this, I really do. As I've gotten older I'm caring more and more less what people think, not just in football but everything. It's really liberating! Miami said the same shit in '09 when we beat that ass in a monsoon too. At the end of the season WHO CARES?!? When/if we make it to Orlando representing the coastal the only thing that will matter is the W for VT next to this game. Fuck what the experts say, fuck what UNC fans say...they're gonna be just as salty when beat that ass in roundball too!
If the weather was good, the score would have been similar to the ECU win. Just pure domination!
Question for the pro's... Seems to me VT's offense has been largely based on speed option and various looks off of it. There was not one speed option run at least that I could see, Fuente and Cornelson thinking ball security.
So, point is that the weather took a huge piece of VT offense out of play, yet many are saying it was UNC that was most impacted.
I think this is a valid point you raise. We ran next to no speed option that I saw. Smart play calling in those conditions if you ask me. And really good execution, although not perfect by any means. Some problems with the weather but some others just mental mistakes.
But I agree with above, Bud's defense is for real. Good healthy talent and a lot of experience working under some great scheme. If I'm an opposing OC, I don't know where you you find a weakness to attack it.
UNC was not into this game...the players, the fans, none of them. We sailed into that stadium riding high expecting to win, they showed up having survived two weeks in a row. Many of their fans were bitching well before kickoff about playing in the rain/weather. While we were celebrating seeing our boys on the field again.
Had this game been played with sunny skies and mid 60 temps, the score would have been titled much further in our direction.
Yeah I think the weather had a huge effect. Our 1,000 yard receiver didn't have a single reception.
A UNCheat fan tried to come at me with that garbage about the conditions being the reason they lost. All I had to say to shut him up:
1. You're right, I'll be super generous and give you 30 points, Thirty, Three-Zero. Oh wait you STILL lose.
2. The ball wasn't too slippery for us to catch those INTs. HEY-O.
My response today was "34-3 bro"...
Last time I checked football is an outdoor sport, for the most part, played in the fall and winter. Rain, wind, sun, snow that's called the outdoors. This isn't arenaball, or basketball, or ping pong, or whatever indoor sports you can think of. Man up or go the f@@k home with your feelings hurt and your team spanked.
Yeah, I'm surprised how many UNC fans forget that football is an outdoor sport....OUTDOOR. It's like they don't learn anything at their school or something...
If they don't like rain, they should build a dome. Wimps.
They would not have scored 21 if it had been 68 degrees and just a puff of wind. More in my film review coming tomorrow.
After going to the game this Saturday, yes the weather was bad, but no where near as bad as it could have been. Chapel Hill was completely different than Raleigh, We got less rain, wind, and UNC's field held up much better. Having gone to both this and the 2013 Marshall game, the Marshall game was way worse than this game.
The weather had an effect on the game, but no more than any other rainy day would have.
Yeah, because during the Marshall game, ESPN lost the signal from the stadium. No such problems here.
It may have been mentioned before in pieces but, we were better prepared. CJF adjusted to the conditions and UNCheat did not. Also, they looked a little out of focus and maybe a little drained from their previous game. I thought the Stroman punt formation was a stroke of genius!!! Whit done real good.
True, true. I haven't seen it mentioned enough regarding the quick kicks. Brilliant piece of coaching by Fuente.
The only problems in our kicking game came when Stroman WASN'T the punter. Seriously smart.