ESPN updated its Playoff Eliminator this week.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/17927935/eliminator-week...
As of the Week 9 results, there are only 19 teams in their estimation that are competing for the 4 playoff spots. And the good guys are one of them.
Now I am not starting this thread to say I think they have a shot (they don't unless a lot goes right for them and very wrong for a # of other teams)
But I do think its pretty cool in Year 1 of the "rebuild" we are still talking about really meaningful VT football this deep into the year.
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We keep winning, we'll be on that list til after the ACCCG. Chance of actually making the playoff? Zero.
With good reason, two losses is two too many for playoff consideration. I would love to see only undefeated teams make the playoff no matter which conference.
I'd be surprised if there are still 4 undefeated teams by the end of November
Right. There were 9 entering this past Saturday, and now we're down to 5, and one of them is Western Michigan (!!). No way all of the other 4 are making it through unscathed, that would be unprecedented.
Bama most likely will. Michigan can, but OSU is definitely a huge question mark. Clemson should (until the ACCCG am I right?!?!). I have no clue about Washington. I thought the win over Stanford made them look super legit, but now Stanford isn't that good. Maybe they struggle vs USC.
So I could see Western Michigan and 3 other teams being undefeated. I still wouldn't think that means Western Michigan is better or makes it over a 1-loss Louisville or Texas A&M.
Washington just beat Utah, the best remaining team on their schedule. They should win out.
There is a pirate on The Palouse who would like a word with you.
They still play @Cal, USC, and @WSU, all of which could play up to their level. Don't sleep on any of them.
Cal and WSU are always dangerous because air raid + solid QB. USC talented and seeming to come into their own now.
SoCal's QB (true freshman) is going to be a star. What little I saw of the Cal game the other night, he's full speed at about half a step. Dude can sling it too.
Bama has tough LSU and Auburn games coming up. Both teams are playing extremely well right now. Washington goes up against a USC team that finally has their legs under them. USC is not the same team as early in the year since the QB switch.
Michigan has a pretty good chance as OSU doesn't look great right now. Clemson should be fine, but have found ways to keep games close that should be sure wins.
My guess is two of the power 5 end up unscathed at best.
Clemson has Pitt and Syracuse over the next two weeks. Those aren't going to be easy games. With as close games as they have won this season, I can see them dropping one of those games if they don't improve.
Unless there are multiple league champions with 2 losses.
And even then we'd have to hope the loss to Syracuse is out sucked by a few others...
Or Syracuse does something miraculous like win out (or at least beat one of the big two in the Atlantic). Then that loss doesn't look as horrible as it did when it happened. Similar to how UT's win vs ND doesn't have the meaning that was projected upon it at week 1.
You wouldn't believe the joy that Syracuse beating Clemson, or Pitt beating Clemson (OR BOTH! :D) would bring me.
The giggling would definitely last more than 4 hours.
Lots of pointing & laughing.
I'd be like one of Pat Nardouche's dates.
I wouldn't say zero. It's obviously extremely, extremely unlikely and would require a ton of help. But if there is a ton (like, an unrealistic) amount of chaos in the Big 12 and B1G, and Louisville loses a game, and we win out and beat an undefeated Clemson, I could see us sneaking in at #4 with Clemson, Bama, and Washington assuming they are all remain where they are.
The committee has shown that winning the extra game to become a conference champion counts for something, and it would put us in the conversation for sure.
We need that 2007 TEAM CHAOS and to take care of our business. But I agree, to even be in this position heading into November is cool for a new coaching staff.
Not even as ridiculous as 2007. I put together a list of what would have to happen for us to get into contention, and it really just involves 3 upsets in the ACC (including us winning the ACCCG), and some slight chaos in the Big XII (where we're already at least halfway there, one week in):
http://www.thekeyplay.com/comment/476493#comment-476493
Alternatively, if Washington drops one and then the P12CG, and Louisville loses one, that's another path. Not saying it will happen, but I just want to point out that it's not as farfetched as everyone seems to think.
In any case, all we can do is win. If everything works out, we're in the playoffs. If we don't, we're still ACC champs and will be heading to the Orange Bowl, in a season where nobody but TheFifthFuller expected us to really contend for the Coastal.
Pretty sure Washington dropping only 1 still has them above us (unless maybe if it was the pac 12 championship game, but even then...)
2 losses, though perhaps I should have worded that differently.
This is one spicy take from the mothership. (From the article)
YEA I MEMBER!
Well the rankings aren't calibrated to compare teams to VT, and VT lost to Syracuse. Head to head isn't always gonna put you ahead in the polls.
True and at some point, things will likely level out if we finish with the same W-L and are in the ACCCG. Another funny part of this is that UNC was on a bye and moved up 3 spots while we moved 2 for beating Pitt on the road.
To be fair, we failed to cover the spread in Pittsburgh, whereas Vegas didn't even have a spread set for UNC so they had no expectations of success.
Why isn't Virginia ahead of us?
Because they fail to meet expectations even when there are no expectations of success. But also because it's 9:18 AM and UVA still sucks.
Having no expectations means you never meet any expectations.
This may be the most rhetorical question ever posed.
Being able to talk about playoff chances however minuscule is certainly a hell of a lot better than talking about whether we can make it to 6 wins to keep the bowl streak alive.
Stewart Mandel also mentioned us in an article today saying we had the potential to spoil Clemson's season and weasel our way into the playoffs in the process.
Neat
http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/college-football-poll-pl...
I'm not sure he's claiming we'd weasel our way in, so much as he claims that we could play spoiler to the as-of-now easy-to-decide top four.
To be honest, if we win out, including Clemson in the ACCCG, I might be picking Louisville.
The more I look at Louisville, the less I am convinced they are a slam dunk if another of the top 4 drops a game.
They have one win over a team with a winning record (FSU). Their SOS is just not very good, and the Houston game won't help them at this point. They have played way to close to Duke and UVA as well.
They don't look like a top 4 team on paper, but the committee definitely factors in the "eye test." Plus, Lamar Jackson will boost their ratings.
Not saying we should make the playoffs (we shouldn't) but I don't think a team that doesn't even make their conference championship game should be in.
But then again, Louisville's loss was extremely close and on the road.
I'd hope eeking out wins over duke and LOLUVa should cancel out eeking out a loss to clemson.
Interestingly, I think the second-most qualified playoff candidate is more than likely coming from the same side of the conference as the favorite in the conference championship game.
For example:
When Oregon made the playoff a few years back, they won the Pac12. But if they had lost the Pac12CG, Stanford would have probably been the next pick.
When LSU went to the BCS by winning the SEC, the second place team from the SEC West, Alabama, went as well.
If Michigan State hadn't won the BigTenCG last year, Ohio State was the next best choice from that conference.
Same here.
If Clemson doesn't win the ACCCG, then maybe Louisville is the best pick (assuming, of course, they win out).
This is by no means a hard-and-fast rule, but it seems to happen more often than not.
I still have a hard time believing that Louisville is in if Clemson losses the ACCCG especially after the game against Duke and Virginia. Having this committee based and not computer based leaves it up to the eye test and I just don't see that happening. To many arguments to be made to keep them out. They'll probably take both Ohio State and Michigan before they take Louisville.
Bama's the only team without a close win or a loss, so by your criteria, Bama's 1's would play their 2's in the NCG.
From that article:
Uhhh, nice fucking try mate, we aren't tied with UNC for the coastal right now. We are in sole possession of it.
Depends on how much you want to split hairs. We are tied. The in-conference records are the same. We just hold the first tiebreaker at the moment, but that's also technically only relevant at the end of the season, if the tie remains (i.e. there is no such thing as an in-season tiebreaker).
No, technically he's right. Both teams have the exact same record of 6-2, 4-1 in conference. We won the head-to-head, so we own the tiebreaker.
Technically we're tied with UNC at 4-1
We just hold the tie breaker. There is no wiggle room unless UNC loses. We have to win out to secure it.
Hey guys, I think we technically have the same record but own the tiebreaker. Anyone else think so?
I think you may be correct. 4-1 in conference does seem to imply a tie. I'll leave it to the experts to confirm.
You're 100% correct.
VT (10-2, 7-1 ACC) and UNC (10-2, 7-1 ACC)
VT goes. End of story. We own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
I think Ricky Walker agrees with you
I hope GT knocks off UNC this weekend. Not because I don't think we can win out and we need the cushion, but because I'm sick of UNC writing off their lopsided loss to us because of the weather and acting like they are the better team and are being deprived of winning the Coastal. Screw them.
I would love nothing more than to hear them whine to eternity about how they were so slighted by the weather in a 31 point home beatdown that kept them out of the ACC title game.
Winners move on. Losers whine about the what if.
Let's hope for 1-0 next saturday
That's the team's job. Ours is to be overly hyped and irrational while we throw donations at the school!
No I hate overhyping stuff. Because that spreads to the team. Then we look like dumbasses like we did a few weeks ago. I get your point, but whatever we do extends to the team. There's no concrete wall between our emotions and their emotions.
The team needs to learn to deal with it. This type of talk is a representation of their success. It's like being nervous on your approach shot into 18....that only happens when you have a good round going.
Fuente should have these guys in these types of conversations regularly. We need to get over the "we can't talk about success" mindset.
We do need to get over it. That's the issue. The past four years have put a losing mentality into this teams head so success like this is hard for them to deal with.
if the team can't handle success, then what's even the point of all of this? and if the team can't handle being successful (particularly in the long run), then fuente was a pretty bad hire
Really? "then Fuente was a pretty bad hire." Um Syracuse. Both Fuente and Buzz have discussed the difficulties of dealing with success, and the dangers of thinking you can beat a team, just showing up. These are real people, and success is not a small thing to learn to deal with. There are staffs that hire folks to focus on keeping player motivated through success. I believe Alabama is one of them.
if in 3-4 years we consistently lose to lesser teams after we make it in to the top 20, that's an issue... this is all hypothetical, i think fuente was a good hire.
the main point was the team will have to be able to handle success sooner or later, the fans not hyping the team up doesn't change that
You probably shouldn't have stated that last bit as a parenthetical statement if it was a part of your main argument. I always take those as supportive, but if it wasn't there it wouldn't be missed. If I had known that was a major part of your argument, I wouldn't have responded as I had. Now I see what you are saying, and can agree. To be successful you need to know how to coach being successful.
I'm hoping for 7-2
I think that folks have ran off assuming that my statement was saying something that it was not. It was a simple statement quoting what the Coaches are telling the players to believe. I myself don't want to be like a Tennessee fan right now (Tennessee fans do give a lot of money to their school though). I am definitely not saying anyone on TKP is like a Vol fan, just in case that needed to be made clear. I think it was inaccurate for people to assume that just because I made that statement it was a slap on other's wrists who have been getting excited. I was not trying to point out anyone's wrong. It was simply my position. I find that if I humbly take everything in stride, I don't have to eat my own statements. It something learned in Bama country, where you don't really have much to say. But really, I wasn't trying to put anyone in there place with that statement.
I updated this post to include the link to the ESPN article. If you're going to start a discussion about a news story, please include a link. I don't understand the notion of "I won't link ESPN out of principle." Give credit where it is due, and let people choose if they're going to visit the original source.
More me just taking a shot at that network, but will keep in mind for next time
Eliminated in Week 1: Appalachian State Mountaineers, Arkansas State Red Wolves, Bowling Green Falcons, Buffalo Bulls, Charlotte 49ers, Colorado State Rams, Florida International Golden Panthers, Fresno State Bulldogs, Georgia State Panthers, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, Iowa State Cyclones, Kent State Golden Flashes, Kentucky Wildcats, Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, Massachusetts Minutemen, Miami (Ohio) RedHawks, Mississippi State Bulldogs, New Mexico State Aggies, North Texas Mean Green, Northern Illinois Huskies, Northwestern Wildcats, Ohio Bobcats, Rice Owls, San Jose State Spartans, Temple Owls, Tulane Green Wave, Virginia Cavaliers, Washington State Cougars
I'm not saying they're a playoff contender, but it has been some turn around for Washington State.
We had a Halloween party this past Saturday and I was drunkenly arguing with whoever was left at 2 am that we should watch Wazzu and Oregon State instead of Hocus Pocus because Mike Leach is a pirate.
[enter hypothetical this will never happen because it didn't and LOLUVA mode]
So hear me out here, I was thinking (mushroomcloud.gif). Was Virginia really eliminated in Week 1? Or were they only eliminated in Week One because they also lost in week 2 and 3?
UVa plays in a P5 conference. Let's say Bronco turned out to be a 1st year savant ala Tom Herman and the Richmond loss was an anomaly. They proceed to blowout every other team on their schedule, including ranked Oregon, ranked UNC, 5th ranked Louisville, and top 10-15 VT on the road. They get a convincing win over Clemson in the ACC championship game. At 12-1, conference champs, shouldn't it only take a minimum of chaos to get them in the playoff?
Their "model" is based on criteria where "a team has never made the championship/playoff where they did x that year".
No team has ever made the championship with an FCS loss or with an unranked G5 loss. That may very well change one day, but for the purpose of this system, several P5 teams in week 1 were "eliminated" in this way.
In your scenario, a team could certainly make the playoff, it simply hasn't happened yet so their elimination model remains pretty general.
So based on that the 2007 LSU team is keeping us in their model then?
Yes. With two losses, their odds were incredibly unlikely to make a championship game then; most prediction models for the National Championship game still neglected to consider 2-loss teams even after that.
It would be far less unlikely to select a two-loss team for the 4 team playoff now.
We're bowl eligible. After that, as long as we beat UVA, I'm content.
Anything else is just gravy.
And I really like gravy.
My favorite line from that article...
Who wears short shorts? Pitt tackle Ejuan Price wears short jorts.
I'm concerned with only this:
Going 1-0 on 11/05 (preferably David Cutcliffe comes through on his word of a gift wrapped wedding present for me)
Going 1-0 on 11/12 (preferably showing the German Club a real party on the lawn for the 3rd year now)
Going 1-0 on 11/19 (preferably showing Notre Dame that Bucky Hodges is truly "God's Gift")
Going 1-0 on 11/26 (preferably making them our bitch and forcing them to feed our team Thanksgiving leftovers)
Making it to the ACCCG and going 1-0 on 12/03 (preferably "bringing our own guts" and spoiling ACC in the Playoff)
So you want to win all the games is what you're saying?
preferably..... but just one at a time.
There was an article on ESPN saying how the ACCCG has already been decided with VT's schedule being significantly easier the rest of the way.... which pretty much jinxed us, so we need to approach them all one at a time
So we need to approach all the games in the same way by approaching them individually?
Got it.
I would rather win all of the games at once. Imagine the amount of rest and preparation the team would have before the Clemson game.
I keep seeing people say that UNC is ahead of us because we lost to 4-4 Syracuse, but they lost to an arguably worse 4-4 Georgia team (who also lost to Vandy at home, beat Nicholls State by 2, needed a miracle to beat Missouri, and lost to a 3-5 Ole Miss team by 31.)
Why was Georgia in the preseason top 10, with a new coach and a freshmen quarterback? (suck it Greyson Lambert) Was it just because Chubb exists, or did folks really expect their D to be a force?
Oh, right, SEC, they're in the SEC.
I'd like to see GT beat them at the end of the season. Nothing like an irrelevant end of season rivalry to highlight two underachieving teams from the state of Georgia, go ACC!
GT might need that game to bowl qualify.
I think they expected Eason to be a stud. Which, by everything I've seen, is going to happen. But not yet.
Not yet.
This meme belongs in any conversation regarding the CFP
via GIPHY