Now that the new CFP rankings are out . . .
I've detailed the New Year's Six bowls elsewhere, but they're all the same as last week, just different numbers.
Clemson is still in the top 4, and Louisville (#11) and FSU (#14) are the only other ranked ACC teams.
Current ACC standings
Clemson 10-1
Louisville 9-2
FSU, VT, UNC 8-3
GT, Miami, Pitt 7-4
Wake Forest 6-5
NCSU, BC 5-6 (need to win to go bowling)
So, our possible bowl destinations and opponents. It's actually getting a little more hazy, because many of this week's games have a direct impact on rankings and pecking order.
Orange Bowl
current opponent: #7 Penn State
current ACC projection: #11 Louisville
Although, depending on how the B1G plays out, we could see Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Nebraska as possible opponents.
Citrus Bowl
Currently, I see this to be a potential matchup of #14 FSU and #15 Florida, based simply off the pecking order. I don't know if the SEC automatically sends the best team after the CFP/Sugar Bowl/New Year's Six, or if the bowl simply has the first choice. But with Alabama going to the semis, and Auburn tagged for the Sugar Bowl as the next ranked SEC team, Florida is next team up. Thing is, I know this projection won't hold since these teams playing each other on Saturday will change their records and rankings. Auburn, Tennessee, and aTm could also be in the mix for this one.
Russell Athletic Bowl
current opponent: #18 West Virginia -- #3 pick from the Big 12.
current ACC projection: VT or UNC
The issue I see here is that there's a lot of separation between the Big 12 teams. They don't have a lot of wiggle room among teams to select. Both Oklahoma schools are 9-2. The winner will be in the NY6 at 10-2, while the loser is the first available team at 9-3, and likely selected for the Alamo Bowl. WVU is 8-2 with two games left, then K-State and Baylor are 6-4.
As usual, I don't really bother trying to guess the tier one bowls because there are so many factors in play.
Comments
But what bowl does Uva go to this year? Why don't I see them anywhere?
How bad is it when you can't even earn a participation trophy these days?
They don't need to earn one when they can just order one! *cough* fake Commonwealth Cup *cough*
They have the Commonwealth Cup countdown clock
Do clocks do negative numbers that large?
They don't have to go to a bowl. They have people who can make fake trophies. Why go through all the effort to try to win one, if you can just make one?
As usual the UVA thoroughbreds look to play spoiler this year. I wonder what happened to that giant clock!
Will we ask out of the RAB if they have WVU since we play in game 1 next year? I would imagine we do.
That puts us in the Gator vs SEC or Belk vs SEC. Both better spots than the RAB back in ORL on 12/28.
I would be much less opposed to playing someone in a bowl then opening against them 8 months later than an FSU-UF situation where you play 5 weeks apart. At least the roster will have changed a little due to graduation.
I don't know if we can ask out, but sometimes the bowls are aware of past and upcoming games and will try to avoid rematches.
They could always flip us and FSU. We play Florida, they play WVU. But again, these projections will have to change with this weekend's outcomes anyway.
wait a sec. Why would they send the ACC champion to either the RAB or Citrus?
Tried to change this to say "Give That Man Some Pie" but failed miserably behind work firewalls :(
There is a really good chance UF isn't in the Citrus. They are about ready to lose their next 2 games, maybe badly, and there are a lot of other SEC teams who could end up there in UT, ATM, ark, UGA, lsu and auburn.
The Belk could be considered a good trade for the fans with the ACC game having been moved to Orlando. They are certainly fans of VT judging from their Twitter.
I hope so... I was really looking forward to starting the rivalry back up in DC and already have plans to go! I still would, but it wouldn't be quite as meaningful if we end up playing them this year after waiting so long for the FedEx game.
After reading somethings online and remembering some college football history, RAB will likely try to take Pitt if they get WVU.
Reminder of Pitts empty stadium when we were there. They don't have fans. Pitt is squarely behind VT, UNC, FSU and Miami. Maybe even behind GT if they gave the same record. The Backyard Brawl is a nice regional rivalry but it doesn't resonate nationally.
Pitt and West Virginia HATE each other. One of the nastiest, "defunct" rivalries in college football. Both teams would welcome this game, WVU fans would fill their allotted seats, and Pitt might surprise some with their fan turnout.
I'd rather not play WVU since we play them first game next year, and nothing would be better than seeing their fans' reactions when they lose to Pitt and Virginia Tech back to back, two schools they base EVERYTHING they do off of.
when they lose to Pitt and Virginia Tech back to back
Mm...say it again, slower this time
WVU vs. Pitt gets more butts in seats than WVU vs. random ACC team. FSU would provide proximity, though.
These aren't random ACC teams. The choices would be FSU, UNC, Miami and vt. All four are superior choices for a matchup with wvu.
Strictly in terms of better teams to create a matchup for this season, yes, those teams are better. But there are several factors that bowl organizers consider in their efforts to maximize revenue. One of those is history between teams. WVU has played UNC twice, Miami 19 times (only 6 were pre-Big East), and Florida State 3 times (all in the Gator Bowl). There's no history there.
Miami and FSU have the proximity factor that could bring people in.
As for where I read this...
I hope the RAB considers everything that would to keep VT out of it. It's a worse bowl than Citrus, Gator, Belk and arguably the Music City. I'm not worried about VT, we will end up in a good bowl no matter what. 15k at ND is great data inour favor.
Wvu is going to sellout their allotment against anyone, Pitt sold 60%+ of their tix to psu fans in their own stadium.
It will be interesting to see where Miami ends up. Good for tv ratings, only good for tix sales in FL.
I bet there was closer to 25k than 15k at ND. BUT how many Tech fans are going to want back to back FL trips?
Not many Hokies will be at the ACCCG. That's a tough trip to make in the first week of Dec. Mostly Fla Hokies will be in attendance.
But a bowl game around New Years (less the RAB on 12/28) should be a big draw for VT fans.
What's the guess, 15k vt fans at acccg and 40k for a bowl in fla?
Do they make it by bearing LOLUVA or UNC lose? I think BIG game against UVA gets that number at ACCCG above 20K.
Oh I'm assuming we beat UVA. We have a 89% chance to win. They are awful across the board.
Wait, this isn't right. We're automatic for the Orange Bowl.
OT: Mighty Ducks is on MTV. It must be a holiday
Great win yesterday!
Overanalyzing - just had a disconcerting thought. We win next week but they give Clemson the Orange Bowl. Possible? Likely?
From the ranking standpoint I feel they have been propping up Clemson all year, as if they are desperately trying to have most conferences represented in the playoffs. The inertia behind Clemson is great, but with the ACCCG loss they probably drop from the playoffs.
The ACC Champion is guaranteed an automatic bid to the Orange Bowl. If we win next weekend, there is a 100% likelihood that we are going to the Orange Bowl. Clemson losing would knock them out of the playoff, but they would almost assuredly get an at-large bid to another NY6 Bowl somewhere.
Not necessarily. There is only one "wild card" spot in the NY6 (Cotton Bowl vs. Group of 5 champ). I'm assuming that will go to the highest ranked team not already taken by the official tie-ins. So it would depend on how far they fall in the rankings.
True, I kind of forgot about Western Michigan and the fact that two of the three "at-large" NY6 Bowls are hosting the playoff this year. I still think there's a strong likelihood that after all the official tie-ins are satisfied, Clemson would be the highest-ranked team available and get that Cotton Bowl bid.
It would be interesting to see what the playoff committee would do if we can knock off Clemson next weekend. If Clemson wins, the Orange Bowl will almost certainly be FSU vs. Michigan, meaning our worst case scenario for a bowl is either the Citrus or Russell Athletic, so not bad destinations anyway you look at it.
Louisville and FSU are both 9-3, with Louisville having the head to head advantage by virtue of 63-20. Louisville is still likely to stay ahead of FSU.
Thanks for the clarification. Glad it is this way, it would be wrong for us to get relocated down after winning the ACCCG.
No. Winner of the ACC Championship game goes to the Orange Bowl, unless they are selected for the CFP.
The only time the non-playoff bound ACC Champ doesn't go to the Orange Bowl if when the OB is the semi-final.
No the ACC Champion automatically gets orange bowl unless the playoff picks them.
Am I missing something? Shouldn't we be a lock for the Orange Bowl? If we win, the ACC Champion goes, if we lose, Clemson goes to the playoff and we're 2nd place right?
EDIT: I just learned it is ACC Champ or highest ranked team in CFP
No, the Orange Bowl would take the next highest ranked ACC team, which would be FSU. Conference standings don't matter, just the playoff rankings.
No the loss to GT will really bite us in the ass bowl wise if we don't win the ACCCG
and syracuse lol
While we're including unranked teams, might as well throw Tenn in there as well.
Ehhh, I don't see a bad bowl matchup. The Orange would be nice but I'm not sure I want any part of Michigan. The Citrus or Gator against the SEC would be great and a game we could win. The Belk is against another SEC opponent in a location where we would travel well.
Worst case to me is the RAB since its played on 12/28 against the b12, but a game against Okie St is at least novel and challenging.
VT on the road to Miami.
Didn't see the need to start another thread for more bowl talk (but I'm open to it) but some outlets have updated their bowl projections. Some are still filtering in so I'll update as they come.
Sporting News has us in the Tax Slayer Bowl against Texas A&M. That would be totally baller. I'd love to play them again.
SB Nation has us in the Citrus Bowl against LSU. That'd be a fun game too, but I'm not sure I want Leonard Fournette's last game to be against us (assuming he goes pro).
CBS has us in the Russell Athletic Bowl against Oklahoma State, who we haven't played since 1972 I believe. We'd also get to go against this maybe:
So at this point, I'll be honest. Anything not Russell, TaxSlayer, or Citrus I'll be disappointed. Unless its the Orange Bowl obvious. Let's just say anything not in Florida would suck. If we get knocked down to the Belk bowl it'd mean UNC, Pitt, or Miami jumped us. Hell, Georgia Tech can technically jump us since they're within one win of us.
What say you guys? Any of these matchups tickle your fancy? Anyone else you'd like to see us play? I'm a big fan of that TAMU match up myself.
You're looking at it wrong. Taxslayer/Music City, Belk, Pinstripe, and Sun Bowls are all on the same tier. It's not so much a case of teams jumping each other among those four as who provides the favorable matchup.
That being said, I don't know why the ACC has a tie into the Sun Bowl, why it's a Tier 1 bowl, or why CBS of all places has TV rights. I can do without that one.
I'm hoping (this is assuming we don't go to Orange) that it is Belk actually, as that is the one I'm most likely able to attend.
Here's the final regular season ACC bowl standings.
11-1: Clemson
9-3: Louisville, FSU, VT
8-4: UNC, Miami, GT, Pitt
6-6: NC State, WF, BC
Home: Syracuse, Duke, UVA
Scenario #1: Clemson wins the ACC.
CFP: Clemson
Orange Bowl: based on the rankings between Louisville, FSU, and VT. AP has FSU ahead of Louisville, but I think the CFP is going to keep Louisville ahead. We'll see on Tuesday. I don't see VT being ahead of both of those teams.
Citrus and RAB: Will be choosing between the remaining two teams of Louisville/FSU/VT. One of them has the option to pick an 8-4 team. Only reason I see an 8-4 team going here is if WVU is locked into RAB and they want to do the Backyard Brawl.
Tier 1: They're getting all of the 8-4 teams.
Tier 2: Definitely getting the 6-6 teams.
Scenario #2: VT wins the ACC.
Orange Bowl: VT
If 11-2 Clemson isn't ranked high enough for the Cotton Bowl, then they're going to the Citrus Bowl.
RAB would be choosing between Louisville and FSU.
Tier 1 would get remaining Louisville/FSU, plus 3 of the 4 8-4 teams.
If Clemson does get the Cotton Bowl, then Louisville/FSU go to the Orlando Bowls, and we have the same tier 1/tier 2 as scenario #1.
Call me ignorant, but what are consensus tier 1, 2, 3 etc. bowls? Obviously NY6/ previously BCS bowls are the best, but where do they go from there? My google skills are not helping.
It's not a consensus. It's how the ACC groups their bowl games.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bids_to_college_bowl_games#Atlantic_Coast_...
With the new rankings, it looks like Michigan goes to the Orange Bowl. They are 5. The Big Ten champ teams are 6 and 7, with winner going to Rose Bowl.
Of course, if we beat Clemson, that could rearrange the rankings enough to push Michigan out of the spot.
Did you see Hale's scenarios today? He thinks FSU to OB means VT to Citrus.
Agree with this - have been thinking as long as VT looks good against Clemson, we go to the Citrus. I'd be great with that.
Mainly because WVU in RAB.
Hale does a good job laying it out. Puts up with idiots better than I would.
WVU in RAB Is a big deal. He says ORL doesn't care about VT on a return trip
But they don't want to give us back to back games with the cousins.
Yeah, I agree that we won't be playing WVU (which is fine with me, RAB is about 5th on the list of attractive bowls for VT).
But the Citrus apparently is cool with us. Will they choose us over Louisville and Lamar? That's a tough call, but if we do well against Clemson, it will be a reminder that Louisville has been hot garbage in November.
David Hale is a saint and a cfb prophet all in one.
The NY6 projections after the penultimate rankings.
Semis:
1 Alabama vs. 4 Washington
2 Ohio State vs. 3 Clemson
Rose Bowl:
6 Wisconsin/7 Penn State vs. 8 Colorado/11 USC
Sugar
14 Auburn vs. 9 Oklahoma/10 Oklahoma State
Orange
12 FSU vs. 5 Michigan
Cotton
17 Western Michigan vs ???
Cotton Bowl is a true wild card right now. Normally, I just go with the highest ranked team not already claimed. Technically, that would be the loser of the Big Ten or Big 12 championship games. Although, 11 USC is in the mix. I don't know how the committee would rank the Pac-12 teams if Washington does win. Colorado would be 10-3, while USC is 9-3, but has the head-to-head over Colorado. So, a Colorado loss could put USC in the Rose Bowl.
Turning to VT's potential bowls and opponents, it's a really safe bet to see a Big Ten foe in the Orange Bowl. Big Ten teams are ranked 2, 5, 6, and 7. SEC teams are ranked 1, 14, and 15. Only the teams ranked 1, 6, 7, and 15 are playing this weekend. Even if Florida beats Alabama, I don't see multiple Big Ten teams falling to be under Auburn.
The Citrus Bowl has first choice of the SEC after the NY6. Right now, that looks like they could take 8-3 Florida (who would be 8-4 if they were available here), 8-4 Auburn (if Florida beats Alabama), 8-4 Texas A&M, or 7-4 LSU.
Russell Athletic Bowl has the third pick of the Big 12 after Sugar and Alamo Bowls. Right now, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia are 9-2. Kansas State is 4th in the Big 12 at 7-4, so I think we're safely looking at the top three. But, could geography play a bigger role? The Alamo Bowl would have the choice between the 9-3 loser of Bedlam or 9-2 WVU. Oklahoma schools would travel better. But if the Alamo Bowl gets crazy and picks WVU, RAB could have Oklahoma or OK State. If it's one of the latter, then all bets are off for the ACC pick.
One thing I've learned tonight is that most of the bowl projections by all of the sports writers are crap shoots right now. There is so much dependent on the CFP committee, and the championship games. For instance, if we beat Clemson, the Tigers are pretty much locked into either the Cotton or Citrus Bowls. At that point, it's at the mercy of the rankings. But FSU would definitely be getting one of Orlando bowls.
The only thing for sure in the ACC bowls is that the 6-6 teams are only eligible for the tier 2 bowls. They aren't able to move up into tier 1.
I'd love an Orange Bowl but I'm not sure we can hang with Michigan. Citrus against A&M or LSU is much more enticing to me.
Revenge tour has worked so far.
My best case scenario:
VT beats Clemson, Clemson to Citrus, VT to Orange.
Wisky beat PSU, Michigan to playoff, Wisky to Rose, PSU to Orange.
Playoff: Bama vs. Michigan; OSU vs. UDub
PSU would be a good match up. I like this too. Hell, anyone but Michigan. But if we can beat Clemson I reckon we could hold our own against Michigan.
If we get matched with A&M I may go just to see "Saw 'Em Off" in person.