Halfwits and Wagers: That Good Old Fashioned Championship Feeling

Can you believe it? Here we are. In Orlando (thanks Pat McCrory!), facing the final ascent of the Hokies' climb to the top of the ACC mountain. In Year One of the Justin Fuente Experience. When the Hokies and Tigers kickoff on Saturday night, it will highlight a remarkable resurgence in Blacksburg, one that many assumed would take at least two years.

People are saying that Clemson is the better team by almost every measure. In this world of fake news and misinformation, for the most part, they are correct. But the statistical gap between the Tigers and Hokies is relatively small, considering one team has been locked into a playoff spot all season and the other snuck back into the Top 25 earlier this week. The last time these two teams met in the ACC Championship Game, it was 2011 and the 9-3 Tigers blew the doors off of the 11-1 Hokies. I think we can all agree that it's time for a little payback. Oh the (potential) irony.

On to the (fake) lines!

Which quarterback finishes with more total yards: Deshaun Watson or Jerod Evans?

Brian: If this was just passing yards, Watson would run away with it. Other than Week 1 against Auburn, the Tiger has played his best against his squad's toughest challengers (306 yards/5 TDs against Louisville; 378 yards/2 TDs at Florida State.) But the prop also factors rushing yards in, which makes things much more interesting.

If the Hokies want to upset Clemson, they'll need the biggest game of their quarterback's career. And if there's ever a time to get a performance like that, it may be this Saturday. Against Virginia, Evans showed more patience as a passer than ever before. If he can continue to hold onto the ball long enough to find a secondary receiver, the Hokie could see big time totals (remember, Pittsburgh's Nathan Peterman threw for over 300 yards on the Tigers less than a month ago).

Add to the fact that Evans will see his share of designed runs and Wayne Gallman could take away from Watson's totals, I'd bet on Jerod.

Pierson: Both of these quarterbacks can put up yards — they rank #2 and #4, respectively, in the ACC in total offense. Watson averages 26 more yards per game and holds a near 600-yard edge in passing, thanks in part to a 50-play advantage. Working in Evans' favor is the fact that he averages more yards per play (7.3 to 7.2) and the Hokies average 2 more minutes of possession per game than the Tigers.

Watson is going to be tough to stop. While he has not run the ball as frequently as he did a year ago, he still possesses the ability to tuck and run when the opportunity presents itself. Against balanced defenses (like the Hokies), Watson has attempted 10 or more carries with regularity. The other X-factor is how Jerod Evans fares in the pocket. As French noted in his UVa film review, Evans displayed a more patient approach in the pocket last week. He went through his progressions and stepped up in the pocket to extend plays with his arm rather than tucking and running. While I feel Watson has been slightly overrated this year because of his exceptional 2015 season, he remains incredibly dangerous and is surrounded by a wealth of playmakers. I'll take Watson.

True or False? Deshaun Watson will rush for over 100 yards

Brian: False. The Clemson coaches have hardly run their star all season, because their playoff hopes rest on his shoulders and not his legs. Now that they're so close to their goal, I expect to see the dynamic Watson pull the ball more often. It adds an entirely new dimension for defenses to prepare for, which can be a huge advantage come playoff time (teams like Alabama and Ohio State can't fully game plan for something that isn't on film this season).

But if you're Dabo and the rest of the Tiger staff, don't you wait as long as possible to break the glass around Watson? Unless things go incredibly wrong, Clemson has more than enough weapons to score on the Hokies without their quarterback running amok.

That being said, if Tech keeps things close in the fourth quarter, expect a few big runs from Watson. Even with relative success containing Notre Dame's Deshone Kizer — who still ran for 69 yards — the mobile quarterback remains a devastating weakness for Bud Foster's defense (somewhere in upstate New York, Eric Dungey is still running on the Hokies.)

Pierson: Co-offensive coordinators Jeff Scott and Tony Elliott aren't stupid. They know that for all of his schematic brilliance, Bud Foster has been flummoxed by dual-threat quarterbacks of late. The Tigers have been, for the most part, a balanced offense this season. But against a team like Pitt — who was keeping pace with them offensively and had a defensive backfield ripe for the picking — the Tigers went HAM through the air and essentially ignored the run (580 yards passing versus 50 yards rushing).

While it has felt like the Hokies have been gashed on the ground by quarterbacks this season, the truth is they have kept all but two non-Georgia Tech quarterbacks below 100-yards — Josh Dobbs and Eric Dungey each ripped off 106 against the Hokies (so yes, each of the Hokies' three losses this season have come when an opposing quarterback runs for 100-plus). The problem has been that the Tech defense has given up chunk yardage to QBs at inopportune times, like third and fourth downs. Psychologically, they have been killers and have almost certainly contributed to the Hokie defenses' demise.

How much do the Tech defenders focus on shutting down the Tigers' talented receiving core, and how does Bud handle Watson's ability to hurt them on the ground? For me, those are the key questions. I'll say false, because something's gotta give and Tech's second half clamping down against Deshone Kizer was confidence-inspiring.

Which duo combines for more receiving yards: Mike Williams and Artavis Scott or Isaiah Ford and Cam Phillips?

Brian: Mike Williams is a terrifying human being. His second touchdown against South Carolina last week was ungodly:

Look at him! It reminds me of when my brother and I played football in the front yard in elementary school. He always tried his damndest to bring me down short of the goal line, but could just never make up for the fact that he was three years and 50 pounds lighter.

But as far as the question goes, I'll take Ford and Phillips. Isaiah will always get his share of the targets, but Cam is the one who pushes this line over the top. No one has seen more growth in the last year than Phillips, especially in his transition to third receiver next to Ford and Bucky Hodges. His explosion after the catch, combined with his knack for finding holes underneath, could make him a challenge for Clemson linebackers and safeties to keep track of.

Pierson: Ford and Phillips. The Hokies duo averages 16 more yards per game than their Tiger counterparts, due in large part to their use in the run game and Clemson's considerable depth at the wideout position. Consider this: Clemson has six players with 20 or more receptions this season, while the Hokies have three (and it's an easy guess who those characters are). Sure, Mike Williams could go off and render Ford and Phillips' performance meaningless. The Tigers wideouts are deadly in space and Williams is a matchup nightmare (I mean, have you seen the video of him dragging poor USCe corner Trumaine Washington into the endzone?). But with a line like this, you have to take volume over potential.

True or False? Virginia Tech will finish the game with a better turnover margin than Clemson

Brian: False. Both teams are in the middle of the pack in terms for forcing turnovers. The Hokies have 20 on the year (12 interceptions and eight fumble recoveries), and the Tigers have 22 (16 and six respectively).

And though Watson has been a bit of an INT machine this year, it's not like the Hokies have protected the ball spectacularly. Tech has fumbled 10 times over their last three games, and lost four of them. It's not an extreme example of luck, but it does show a bit of extended good fortune.

Tech has also had a tough time forcing mistakes against spread teams this season. In games against Tennessee, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and North Carolina, Bud Foster's group has taken the ball away six times. And if you pull a Tar Heel and not count the monsoon game in Chapel Hill, the number deflates to a paltry two.

I'll take the Tigers.

Pierson: We all know the story: When the Hokies take care of the football, they're nearly impossible to beat. On the season, the Tigers are (-1) in turnover margin, while the Hokies are (-2). Both teams sport stellar, opportunistic defenses. Surprisingly, the Hokies and Tigers rank #10 and #11 (respectively) in turnovers lost. Watson has thrown 14 INTs on the year and the Hokies cough the ball up so much you would think they were playing with a buttered ham.

The team that lost the Battle at Bristol feels like an entirely different squad now, but I worry about nerves and Tech's ability to handle the spotlight. Can the Hokies settle in quickly, play their game, and execute their assignments? How do Jerod Evans and his skill position players fare at the mesh point? Clemson has been on this stage before, having played in last year's National Championship Game. I'll take Clemson, here.

PROP BET: Who gets the most carries? Jerod Evans (Even), Travon McMillian (2-1), Steven Peoples (4-1), Sam Rogers (5-1), FIELD (10-1)

Brian: French did a great job highlighting the different ways for Brad Cornelsen to attack Clemson, including locking up their linebackers on power runs. The example he has in his article shows NC State's Matthew Dayes accelerating through a hole for a nice chunk gain.

Though the Sam Rogers experience was a great story against UVA, the Hokies need someone who can turn that kind of hole into big yardage. Neither Rogers nor Peoples are consistently that guy, which only leaves McMillian. I know it's foolish to bet on a guy whose carries fluctuate more than your weight over Thanksgiving, but he's the best option for explosiveness.

Pierson: Against Louisville earlier this season, Clemson used a variety of unique looks and crowded the line of scrimmage to confuse Heisman-favorite Lamar Jackson and contain him on the ground. Evans' poise in the pocket against UVa could signal an added dimension to his game, but the Tigers defense is an entirely different animal than the JV unit he faced last Saturday. Once again, Evans feels like the right bet but there's no financial value here. Rogers and Peoples have been the fresh faces on the block in recent weeks, so I feel like we're due for a virtuoso TMac show this weekend. I mentioned in last week's column that a breakout performance from McMillian would turn out to be a phenomenal game of possum. In hindsight, giving the ball to Sam Rogers a bazillion times on Senior Day was obvious and Brian and I are idiots for not seeing it.

Maybe Fuente and Cornelsen have been plotting their long con for weeks, keeping McMillian on the sidelines and making us all wonder if it's because of his pass blocking or poor fit. Or maybe his combination of speed and power are good fits against a ferocious Clemson defense. I'm definitely overthinking this. It's probably going to be Evans who leads the team in carries, but I'm a sucker and I'm taking Travon because f&#% it, it makes too much sense.

Over/Under: 8.5 total punts between the two teams

Brian: Under. Between the point totals of the two offenses and the probable amount of turnovers, don't expect to see Mitchell Ludwig and Clemson punter Andy Teasdall a ton.

Speaking of Ludwig, what does a man have to do around here to wear number 25? Nearly half of his punts have been downed inside the 20, and he does everything asked of him. Sure, the offensive improvement does take away some of the sexiness from the position (it's not like he has to continuously hit 60-yard bombs like A.J. Hughes), but what's nicer than an ugly 33-yard clunker downed at the 15?

Pierson: Clemson averages an ACC-best 3.8 punts per game. The Hokies are dead smack in the middle of the pack, averaging 4.8 per game. Fun Fact: These two teams, who are playing for the ACC Championship, rank #12 and #13 (respectively) in punting average, separated by a mere 0.01 yards per punt. Frank Beamer just ordered a second shake from Cook Out to drown his sorrows while telling himself it's because they punting on a short field.

I have a feeling this game will be high scoring and peppered with turnovers, cutting down on the punt potential. I'll take the under.

Matchup Over/Under: 58

Brian: Over. Both teams will move the ball, against the wishes of both Bud Foster and Brent Venables. It won't just be due to defensive mistakes, however, because both the Hokies and Tigers could have a possession or two worth of favorable field position and score relatively easy touchdowns.

Pierson: Over. 58 is no small number, but with two offenses capable of putting up points it seems easy to reach. I admittedly get a bit nervous when I immediately peg a line as "wildly inaccurate." It makes me feel like Vegas knows something I don't — they do this for a living, after all. My assumption is they're putting a lot of stock in both teams' highly-rated defenses. While I think that's a valid perspective, the offensive firepower feels too difficult to suppress.

Spread: Clemson (-10)

Brian: I want to take the Hokies, because a twisted part of my brain thinks they can win. But the Tigers are so talented, and have already slipped up once this season. Tech has the ability to keep this close for most of the game, but I think a late Clemson touchdown breaks this thing open a bit to win 39-28.

Pierson: It has been 4 years since these teams last met, which in the Hokies universe feels like an eternity. Though the Tigers have won the last three meetings by an average margin of 22.3 points, far too much has changed for both teams since 2012. Between the frustratingly sub-par performances and staff and roster turnover, the Virginia Tech football program has gone through its own unique metamorphosis.

Dabo Swinney's team is incredibly dangerous and capable of controlling the game on either side of the football. We have seen them outrun high octane teams like Louisville and completely shut down explosive offenses (like Syracuse) that have given the Hokies fits. I desperately want to see the Hokies win this game, but I worry about how Tech's youth and inexperience holds up over 60 minutes against the Clemson freight train. Even with their lollipop guild secondary, Pitt proved that the Tigers are beatable. But how disciplined will the Hokies play when staring down the national spotlight and a talented Tigers squad.

If there's one thing I have learned from Gordon Bombay, it's that the best way to take down Goliath (or Jack Reilly and the Hawks; or Team Iceland; or the Varsity) is to have fun out there. I'll take Tech and the points, because this one's for the 'chip and everyone deserves to have some fun Saturday night.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.