Halfwits and Wagers Wants To Drink Bourbon From the Commonwealth Cup

Thanksgiving. A time for family, food, and reflection about all the good things in our lives that we may take for granted. If you're a Virginia Tech fan, one of those things to reflect on is the utter dominance shown by the Hokies in the battle for the Commonwealth Cup.

As we all know, Tech has won each game in the rivalry series dating back to 2004. Think about it, the start of this streak came just weeks after George Bush was elected to a second term in the White House. Counting this year, we've been through four presidential elections since the last time the Hoos beat the Hokies.

To extrapolate it out even further, I was in the building the last time Tech lost to the Cavaliers in Blacksburg. I was an eight-year-old second grader who watched in horror as the Hokies blew a 29-7 halftime lead in 1998, promptly telling my dad afterwards that it was 'the most terrible thing I've ever seen.'

(What can I say, I was born for a life of blogger hot takes.)

All this to say that now, with a potential trip to the ACC Championship Game on the line, is not the time to take beating UVA for granted. The streak can't continue forever, but let's all hope it doesn't happen this year.

On to the (fake) lines!

Over/Under: 20.5 times UVA fans in your life (or on Facebook) refer to winning in other sports, to make up for the fact that their school's football team is terrible again.

Brian: So, so over. I know a lot of people who went to Virginia, and 90 percent of them fall back to the "we're good in so many other things!" argument. At the same time, those Hoos try to act like they don't care about football at all. Like wins in tennis, equestrian, and cross country (no offense, Bill) fill the pigskin sized void in their hearts.

Whether or not that's true (it isn't), I do ask UVA fans this. Either be fully invested in your team so we can trash talk like grown ass adults, or don't even bring it up. Because nothing is more annoying than trying to talk Hokies/Hoos and being met with feigned apathy, or what I like to call "it's basketball season" guy.

"It's basketball season" guy pretends to not give a rip about Virginia football, but you know the minute Tech finally falls, he'll be one of the first text messages on your phone. Just outwardly care, is that too much to ask? A rivalry where both schools and fanbases are invested is so much more fun than one where half of them pretend they don't.

Pierson: Under, only because my circumstances are a bit unique. One of the perks of going to college 12 hours away from home was that no one from my high school or extended circle of friends attended UVa. Graduate school and my professional career have brought some Hoos into my life, but all of them are women and none of them really seem to care about UVa sports. I used to make bets with them every year ahead of the football game, but after a few years of humiliation I just started to feel bad.

I feel like the man above did me a solid here.

PROP BET: Who gets the most carries? Jerod Evans (Even), Travon McMillian (Even), Steven Peoples (5-1), Sam Rogers (6-1), FIELD (10-1)

Brian: I really don't know what to make about McMillian. I'll go to my grave saying that he's the best rushing threat on the 2016 Virginia Tech football team, but his moments of solidity this year have been surrounded by games where he's completely disappeared. Evans is the obvious play, particularly because he's the cog who keeps the entire offense moving. Between designed runs and scrambles, the quarterback is the safest bet to beat up the Wahoos like he did Notre Dame, and rush for 80 or so yards.

But Peoples is an interesting person to keep an eye on. The Galax native has less big play ability than anyone else in the rotation, but if the offensive staff needs a guy to put his head down and gain 4 yards, he's the choice.

(Side note: they don't blow the dust off Shai McKenzie here, right? Because between McMillian's disappearance and Marshawn Williams' injury, this game seems begging for someone to come out of nowhere and get 12-15 carries.)

Pierson: Commonwealth Cup clashes occasionally see a surprise performance from either team. Remember the 2008 game that saw cornerback Vic Hall playing quarterback for the Hoos and his running ability made the game frighteningly close? Demitri Knowles had a career receiving game in 2013, inflating off-season expectations (that never panned out). So there's a small part of me that wonders if Henri Murphy goes all Carlis Parker on us and runs 6-8 jet sweeps. I like the 10-1 odds, but something wild would have to happen for that number of carries to lead this team (Virginia is #92 in the nation in passing defense, soooooooo it could happen).

You have to take Jerod Evans, don't you? I wouldn't play money on this — there is no financial incentive — but the man has led the Hokies in carries each of the last four games. The last guy to lead the team? Travon McMillian, who logged a grand total of one carry last week against the Domers. I feel like this line was set with a McMillian sneak attack in mind, and I can't say that I would be surprised. UVa Defensive Coordinator Nick Howell knows that stopping Evans will be key and his defense will surely be geared up to shut him down. If Cornelsen were to turn around and run TMac 20 times after last week's date with the sideline, it may end up as one of the greater games of possum in this series' history.

Over/Under: 3.5 total touchdowns for Jerod Evans

Brian: For what it's worth, UVA's only let one quarterback have more than three total touchdowns on the year. That player? Lamar Jackson, Louisville's resident Greek god.

But I'll take the over for two different reasons. For one, Evans is the best rushing threat the Hokies currently have. He'll have plenty of goal line opportunities, and can double up his total between passing and rushing. Also, Isaiah Ford is dangerously close to becoming the school's all-time leading receiver. The junior is 131 yards away from Jarrett Boykin's record, which would give him the career bests for receptions, yards and touchdowns.

I expect Evans to target his best wideout early and often, which will eventually help push Ford towards the record and Jerod over this line.

Pierson: Here are some fun Wahoo Football defensive stats:

• #93 in the nation in Scoring Defense
• #86 in the nation in touchdowns surrendered
• #92 in the nation in Passing Defense
• #89 in the nation in Total Defense

Despite those wretched numbers, only one quarterback has managed to beat this spread (Lamar Jackson) and three have fallen one shy (Mitch Trubisky, Dakota Prukop (Oregon) and Kyle Lauletta (Richmond)). These games are often defensive struggles, and — as I mentioned earlier — I think the UVa staff will be focusing on containing Evans. I'm going to take the under.

Over/Under: 17.5 points for Virginia

Brian: This seems like a relatively easy under, considering that Bud Foster has held the Hoos to an average of 11.5 points over the last decade (and only allowed more than 20 points once in that stretch). But a new system from Bronco Mendenhall could provide some challenges, as well as the last collegiate performance for Matt Johns.

Johns may be a turnover machine, but he's one of the only ACC quarterbacks who's struck legitimate fear in me during the middle of a game. When he sprinted on for a decapitated Greyson Lambert during the last drive of 2014's Friday night battle, the guy displayed Michael Brewer-esq confidence as he tried to lead his squad towards a winning score. UVA got to the VT 36 before time expired, but Johns had Tech fans on pins and needles the whole time.

If there's someone who could lead this sorry, two-win squad to a victory, it's a guy like Johns. He may not be very good, but his teammates believe in him, he gets up after big hits, and could do just enough to make things interesting.

Give me the over.

Pierson: Virginia is ranked #105 in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 23.6 points per game. Not exactly world beaters. With that being said, the Wahoo offense has managed to put up points on occasion (they dropped 30-plus on Pitt and Duke!). During the Hokies' 12-game winning streak against the Cavs, UVa has topped this line only three times: 2007 (21 points), 2014 (20 points) and 2015 (20 points). Given the Hokies' usual stingy defense against the Hoos and UVa's general dysfunction, I'll take the under.

Yes/No: The two teams engage in some sort of scuffle/fight either before or during the game:

Brian: Yes. Hard yes. It's not even because the last time Fuente and Mendenhall met, this happened:

If I'm Bronco, I talk my players up about this rivalry starting fresh. The streak doesn't matter, the teams' records don't matter, the only thing that matters is pride. And in doing so, the team will come out looking for a fight.

Conversely if I'm Fuente, I tell my guys that the rivalry starts fresh. The streak doesn't matter, the teams' records don't matter, the only thing that matters is pride. And in doing so, the team will come out looking for a fight.

(What I'm saying, is that both sides will come out looking to scrap.)

Pierson: Major fight? No. Pregame shoving match? Probably. Let's get one thing straight: UVa doesn't fight. They kerfuffle.

I am imagining some mediocre senior defensive player — or probably just Quin Blanding — getting himself hyped up all week over how he's going to fire up his teammates by getting into it with a Hokie around midfield. In the end, it will probably amount to a bunch of easy-to-ignore yapping from someone who has absolutely nothing to fall back on.

Matchup Over/Under: 54.5

Brian: Under. A line like this hasn't been hit since 2009, which says a lot about both Tech and UVA. Even though the two sides combine to average just over 57 points a game, it may not mean very much. The Hoos have struggled on both sides of the ball all year, and Tech's offense has been up down over the last two months. If Foster and company hold the Hoos under 20, can we assume the Tech offense can score five touchdowns? I'll take the under.

Pierson: These two offenses combine to average 57.1 points per game, but the Hoos have only managed to hit their season average (23.6 ppg) once in the last five weeks. Oh, and they haven't topped 21 points against the good guys since 2003, their last win in this series. The Virginia offense is struggling, unable to get comfortable with either of their quarterbacks, and has essentially relied on Smoke Mizzell to do everything.

Just to highlight how depressing the quarterback situation is in Charlottesville, Head Hoo Bronco Mendenhall said the following after naming QB Matt Johns the backup starter backup starter against the Hokies:

"We're going to start Matt. Again, I thought composure and experience and decision making for a lot of the game was right on point. And we were playing complementary football and really some of our best football, through again about two and a half quarters. And it was fun to watch that all happening at the same time,"

So you wanna be a Cavalier starting quarterback? Apparently all you need is general competence for 2.5 quarters and a pulse for the remainder. That last quarter-and-a-half against Georgia Tech? Johns threw three INTs, including a pick-six on a late Hail Mary. Meanwhile, Johns is sitting in his locker having flashbacks of last year's date with Greg Stroman.

Where am I going with all of this? 55 points is an awful lot to expect from the Tech offense. I'll take the under.

Spread: Virginia Tech (-20)

Brian: So. Many. points. I have a general rule in gambling, and it's to never wager against a 15 point underdog on rivalry week. Even if it sees like an easy cover (which I don't think this is), rivalries just make weird things happen. This is the perfect situation for a very solid Hokie win, yet UVA coming back to cover the spread late in the fourth quarter.

Pierson: Dating back to 2012, the final score between these two teams has been 3, 10, 4 and 3 points, respectively. Obviously there has been significant turnover for both programs since they last met, so historical data only goes so far. What the last four matchups tell us is that while the Hokies were in the midst of their slide into mediocrity, they beat the Cavaliers by smaller margins than before. By comparison, when the Hokies were a Top 25 team from 2009 to 2011 — losing 3 games each of those years — Tech won by 29, 30 and 38.

I'm trying to be objective here without jinxing Tech, but this is one of the larger talent/statistic/you-name-it disparities in years (probably going as far back as 2010, when the Hokies went 11-3 (8-0 ACC) and the Hoos finished 4-8 (1-7 ACC)). So is a 30-point margin once again achievable? Possibly. But the Hokies haven't exactly been humming along heading into the UVa game.

They've also been downright awful against double-digit spreads. Two of their losses have come when they've been favored by 10-points or more — Syracuse (-20) and Georgia Tech (-14) — and they barely squeaked past Duke when favored by 11.5. Sure, those are all better teams than the Hoos, but we're playing the spread here. I'll take the under.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.