Now that Coach Fuente's first full recruiting cycle is complete, I thought it would be interesting to look at where his recruits come from, and how that compares with the Beamer era. We all know that coach Beamer focused largely on Virginia, but what exactly did his recruiting footprint look like, and how might we expect that to change based on Fuente's first class?
Methodology: I looked at VT's recruiting classes since 1999, as listed on 247sports.com. I attributed the 2016 class to Beamer, with the exception of Jerod Evans, who was clearly coach Fuente's get. I then compared the Beamer historical data to Fuente's first class.
First, here's a look at VT's recruiting footprint, by state, under Beamer from 1999-2016:
Obviously, the Virginia focus is pretty clear. Other than that, the map shows a pretty good showing along the Atlantic seaboard from Florida to New Jersey. The surprise for me was the scattering of recruits throughout the country, including, of particular surprise to me, California.
And here's Fuente's result, 2017+Evans:
It's hard to draw conclusions from one year, but the main thing that's obvious is the focus on the Southeast as a whole, rather than primarily Virginia.
Next, I broke out VT's recruiting footprint by region. I regard the Mid-Altantic as: MD-DC-PA-NJ-NY, the Southeast as NC-SC-GA-FL-AL-MS-TN-KY-AR-LA. Midwest is: OH-MI-IN-WI-IL-MO-ND-SD-IA-NE-KS, Southwest is: OK-TX-NM-AZ. West being all other states west of the Mississippi. We have never landed a recruit from New England.
Here's the comparison:
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Finally, here's a chart showing the year-by-year percentage of recruits by region:
There's a clear trend, starting in 2014, away from Virginia-centric to a more regional recruiting profile. Fuente seems to be continuing that trend.
Conclusion:Beamer's focus on Virginia is evident from the data, but there's also a clear trend toward more regional recruiting toward the end. Fuente's first year focus was clearly on the Southeast. I'd like to see him also have success in the Mid-atlantic, and move back into PA and OH in the future. Whether he can/will do that is an open question.
PS: I'm sorry if the graphics are large for you mobile users. I'm new here.
Comments
Damn fine work. This is TKP members posting at its zenith.
Very interesting thanks for posting. We will never "own" Virginia like we did at one time. Social media, ESPN and many other things have changed the landscape of recruiting. We just need to get our share from Virginia (which we are well on the way to doing) and continue up to pull kids from NJ, PA, MD and the Southeast. The same reasons we will probably never be as dominant in state can also work to our advantage to overcome not being in a major market.
On mobile now. The graphics look great. Thanks for putting this together. +1
I would love for us to win VA & DC. Having a strong NC presence is important and I think NJ has to be utilized more often. Population is so dense there and non of the talent stays local.
What does "win VA" even mean?
Obviously it's an arbitrary idea, but I think we can agree it means when the top recruit in the country is from Virginia, he doesn't go out of state two years in a row.
I don't know... This is just my opinion but if we consistently get 3 of the top10 in VA (and a solid class overall) I'd call that "winning VA" in today's landscape. kinda shocked we did it this year already. I hope we get the top kid in VA as much as possible, but that doesn't have to happen necessarily imho if we are getting 3 or more of the top 10 guys.
There are certain recruits that would make me change my mind though, and to your point, we would have to get the top kid in VA some years to really make it true.
I am stoked we got three of the top 10 in state this year. That said, all three were on the defensive side of the ball. I look forward to the day when we can have the same appeal to RB/QB/WR as we do to DB/LB/DL. And O-line, too. Pretty much I'd like to see us keep pushing the "this is home" family atmosphere while being able to point to some more on the field offensive success. Despite the leaps and bounds I feel our offense took this season, there were still way too many games where I felt like I was watching a typical Virginia tech offense spinning its wheels while the defense held it down or tried to (Tenn, GT, SU, Duke, Pitt come to mind).
Which is funny because prior classes we haven't had a ton of success at LB and DL with the higher rated kids. This next class in state isn't loaded, so hoping we hit MD hard as they seem to be loaded this year especially with big bodies for the trenches.
3 of the top 4 kids in Maryland are DTs this coming cycle and all rated in the top 100 nationally. Hell 8 of their top 10 are lineman only one CB and WR are included from a skill position perspective.
North Carolina doesn't look bad either going about 13 deep with 4 stars early in the cycle. Rick Sandidge at DT #3 in state would be a huge get, but looks like early he's predicted to SCjr.
To me, if we get more top 10 VA recruits than any other single program, that's winning the state.
Maybe this is unreasonable, but to me, to "win VA" is to get the game-changing recruits. I don't care how they rate in the state. It's no coincidence the golden years of VT football involve highly rated VA talent, especially at QB....
Just a snapshot
Season Record Conf. Record Bowl Game AP Rank Coaches' Rank BCS/CFP Rank QB 247 Rating
2011 43042 7-1 ACC (Runners-up) Sugar (L) #21 #17 #11 Logan Thomas 4 star, #2 VA
2010 43042 8-0 ACC (Champions) Orange (L) #16 #15 #13 Tyrod Taylor 5 star, #1 VA
2009 43011 6-2 ACC (2nd Coastal) Chick-fil-A (W) #10 #10 #11 Tyrod Taylor 5 star, #1 VA
2008 43012 5-3 ACC (Champions) Orange (W) #15 #14 #19 SG/Tyrod Taylor 3 star, #4 VA/5 star, #1 VA
2007 43042 7-1 ACC (Champions) Orange (L) #9 #9 #3 SG/Tyrod Taylor 3 star, #4 VA/5 star, #1 VA
2006 43011 6-2 ACC (2nd Coastal) Chick-fil-A (L) #19 #18 #15 Sean Glennon 3 star, #4 VA
2005 43041 7-1 ACC (Runners-up) Gator (W) #7 #7 #10 Marcus Vick 5 star, #1 VA
2004 43011 7-1 ACC (Champions) Sugar (L) #10 #10 Bryan Randall 4 star, #4 VA
We need to convince all the VA talent to WANT to stay home and rep the VA. I loved when Tyrod used to throw the 2 up 2 down.
Shouldn't the Beamer map list Texas as well?
Based on the graphics it looks like grad transfers weren't included, only recruits out of high school, prep or JUCO, I'm assuming.
The explanation seems to suggest Jerod is included, though. So good call on the JUCO part.
That's correct. I did not account for transfers.
I've always thought with updated technology, that we would start to see more spread out focus. A lot of the Beamer era was focused on VA, because Twitter, videos of every kid, etc didn't exist. So coaches would have to spend a lot of time going to watch the kids live or would never hear of them. Now, they can have someone filter recruits via video, and reach out to them in many other ways then a phone call or showing up.
By the way, this is more of a note on all recruiting, not just Beamer. I'm sure this is happening all over.
For example, since Georgia State University was using #statement17, I saw that they were pulling some decent guys too, for a school I didn't know much about. College kids see the technology bump helping them on their NFL dreams too.
In that regard, I have a pet theory about our success and CFB's recruiting style and I'm wondering if anyone else had considered it. When we were getting 10+ season wins we were regularly finding these under appreciated kids who ended up being studs, but towards the end of Beamer's time we started seeing this happen less frequently. For this reason, I wonder if the accuracy of these recruiting services improved over time?
In that case CFB's old school approach was better at evaluating talent, even if it meant his staff evaluated fewer players overall. As these recruiting services and videos improved in quality this approach became less effective as we lost the advantage of better evaluation with the cost of casting a smaller net than other schools.
I was thinking it was more about technology making it easier for schools to communicate recruiting information, making it more competitive.
Beamer and company were always pretty good at evaluating talent.
My point isn't that CFB and Co became less good at evaluating talent, it's that the technology gradually made that less of an advantage over time. So I think we actually agree here.
Makes sense to me.
Outstanding points re: technology, evaluation and improvement of recruiting services
Interesting to look at 2008's class which was the most 'Virginia-centric' class of the bunch:
Year Pos Name Stars Ht Wt School/Town State Status
2008 RB Williams, Ryan 5-11 200 Stonewall Jackson, Manassas VA VT Signee
2008 ATH Barber, Ben 5-10 190 Edison, Alexandria VA VT Signee
2008 WR Boykin, Jarrett 6-2 195 Butler, Matthews NC VT Signee
2008 CB Williams, Lorenzo 6-2 205 Westover , Fayetteville NC VT Signee
2008 LB Johnson, Jake 6-2 235 Stafford, Falmouth VA VT Signee
2008 ATH Boyce, Xavier 6-4 210 Landstown, Virginia Beach VA VT Signee
2008 LB McCoy, Derrick 6-4 235 Amherst, Amherst VA VT Signee
2008 DT Hopkins, Antoine 6-2 280 Highland Springs, Highland Springs VA VT Signee
2008 ATH Rose, Peter 6-0 190 Amherst, Amherst VA VT Signee
2008 LB Odom, Quillie 6-2 235 Hargrave Military Academy, Manassas VA VT Signee
2008 DT Tucker, Dwight 6-3 280 Oviedo, Oviedo FL VT Signee
2008 DE Jones, Joe 6-3 245 Green Run, Virginia Beach VA VT Signee
2008 LB Stephens, Allen 6-1 235 Halifax County, South Boston VA VT Signee
2008 TE Martin, Eric 6-3 240 Hylton, Woodbridge VA VT Signee
2008 JATH Becton, Nick 6-7 280 New Hanover, Wilmington NC VT Signee
2008 CB Whitley, Eddie 6-1 180 Butler, Matthews NC VT Signee
2008 WR Roberts, Dyrell 6-2 190 Smithfield, Smithfield VA VT Signee
2008 RB Gregory, Tony 6-0 192 First Colonial, Virginia Beach VA VT Signee
2008 OL Via, Michael 6-6 260 Northeast Guilford, McLeansville NC VT Signee
2008 LB Taylor, Bruce 6-2 238 Myrtle Beach, Myrtle Beach SC VT Signee
2008 S Gouveia-Winslow, Jeron 6-2 180 Stone Bridge, Ashburn VA VT Signee
2008 LB Gibson, Lyndell 5-11 210 Salem, Salem VA VT Signee
2008 ATH Fuller, Austin 6-2 205 Richlands, Richlands VA VT Signee
2008 ATH Pressley, Kendrick 5-10 175 Hargrave Military Academy, Sumter SC VT Signee
2008 WR Dunn, Randall 6-3 212 Ocean Lakes, Virginia Beach VA VT Signee
2008 DE Hamlette, Isaiah 6-4 240 Brooke Point, Stafford VA VT Signee
2008 QB Davis, Marcus 6-4 215 Ocean Lakes, Virginia Beach VA VT Signee
2008 QB Clayton, Joseph 6-2 210 Hermitage, Richmond VA VT Signee
2008 OL Painter, Vinston 6-5 300 Maury, Norfolk VA VT Signee
Huge class, lots of VA kids, some non-contributors (and some studs.)
This seems to argue towards a larger footprint, but I also wonder if there were some talent evaluation misses, bad luck, etc.
Interesting data, thanks for presenting this.
Peter Rose is a name I haven't seen in a looong while. They plowed thru us in the state quarters my freshman year (06).
Dude was a stud, got to see him against GWHS Danville plenty. Really sad he got caught up by an undercover deputy posing as a student to buy weed. Literally a few months from graduating HS and going to college... Man oh man.
Wow- what like 12 absolute non-contributors in that class and most of them Va kids. That's not good.
My thoughts too. Some of those years are rough to look at. OT, but I always wondered "what if" when I think about Michael Cole's neck injury. He was something and so early in his career.
Good display of how recruiting has changed over the years.
This is a great effort, but for some reason the pie chart numbers for Beamer chart aren't currently adding up to 100%. Makes it difficult to do a direct comparison.
That said, thanks for compiling the numbers!
Sorry, I believe I didn't adequately explain the graphic. For each pie slice, the first number is the number of recruits, the second number is the percentage. So, 63+15+17+4+0+1=100.
Oh, I see. Nice job.
It will be interesting to monitor this over a longer duration.
Very cool, but why is only half of Michigan highlighted? Did we only recruit players from that side of the state?
I was wondering the same thing.
West Michigan. 51st state.
I didn't even know it was a territory.
No disrespect intended to the UP. I did the same thing with New York (didn't flood fill Long Island), but caught it in time. Kudos for the sharp eye.
This is great work, bravo!
thumbs up... good job
I think we need alot more data to make any kind of comparison of the recruiting footprint, especially in terms of only one year of recruits under Fuente. I'd like to believe that once Coach Fuente establishes himself and our program as a perennial contender in the ACC, we'll be able to keep a majority of the top VA talent. I don't know if it's just me, but to see top local talent leave to go to other programs rubs me the wrong way. I mean, I know we'll never procure all of the top in-state talent, but to see a majority of that talent go to out-of-state programs is, in the words of Charles Barkley, "terrible."
It makes me sad. I mean I guess I understand wanting to go to the best available option, but we had so much more pride in the state and local colleges back then. Nobody wanted to go to Florida State or Alabama or anywhere else. We all wanted to play for good but never great Virginia schools because it felt right. Same as my dads generation. He played qb for air force but was always pretty beat up he could play for University of Washington and to this day he still supports them despite not having a tie to them
Nice work.
Midwest = O line croots.
Corn fed farm boys bailing hay and flipping tires
Nice work. I hope to see JF continue to put a lot of effort in North Carolina. The population centers of NC (Charlotte, Triad and Triangle) are closer to Blacksburg than most of Va and I hate UNC.
The top players for VA have shown out at the out of state schools. Ferrell, Hand, Nnadi, et al, have done a fantastic job. The real indicator for our program is to be able to identify that talent level elsewhere, or find those under the radar guys.
When you look at HS football talent, you get a lot of kids with notoriety who are being pursued by everyone. We would be lucky to get these kids like Garbutt or Hunter. They would fill in the gaps left by a Capeheart or Laborn.
Then you have the crop who fly under the radar, have 2 or 3 big time offers, but are a known commodity. Aundre Kearney in this class comes to mind. These are the must haves to close on that will make a great class, and hopefully contribute.
There in lies the depth. A few hungry kids pushing the stars are the top. I believe this is where Beamer and Co failed towards the end of the tenure, by not securing the middle of the road contributors, and having to settle for the lower tier talent from the misses. Don't get me wrong, we got contributors, but when injuries hit, like Brewer 2 years ago, the depth was hit or miss.
Bitter said it best in one of his mailbags. Alabama could have a 4* go down with an injury, but there's another 4* to replace him off the bench.
Completely agree with your assessment of later Beamer years. And often times we would land a 3-star with other P5 offers (or not) but he was way down our board and after a few misses. Those guys just didn't fit the scheme usually.
I really like landing our top tier targets even when they aren't the 4-star. That will be key for VT imo.
It was Percy Harvin that made it cool and acceptable to go out of state. Before Harvin, no 5-star from VA went out of state.
As if you needed another reason to hate Urban Meyer.
Ronald Curry?
He was almost as much a basketball recruit as a football recruit, and was sold on the chance to play on the UNC basketball team when not on the gridiron.
So, while technically true that he's the exception to the above comment, it has a pretty big asterisk next to it. That doesn't mean there aren't other exceptions though.
Straight from wikipedia:
You nailed that one. And likely would've been a VA recruit selecting a VA school if football was his sole focus.
Wasn't that before star ratings for recruits?
I'd rather have zero kids from Virginia and win a national title than 80 kids from Virginia and lose a national title.
I agree.
I think the rationale, which is pretty sound, is that you have a recruiting advantage with the in state/regional kids.
Goddam.
Put this man on staff.
Nope get him to start a 7 on 7 teams in 757, NOVA, NC triangle, Miami, ATL and NY/NJ.
The big disadvantage of recruiting nationally is it becomes very difficult to build the type of relationships with the high school coaches to get their honest opinions on players. We have gotten several under the radar players because of our coach to coach relationships, and have lost some very good players because we did not have the relationships. I think the much larger staff is enabling us to expand our recruiting footprint without detracting from the coaches ability to develop relationships in a specific region, but how well the new staff can get in with a few top producing schools in a handful of states and Virginia will probably affect our recruiting more than how big of a net we can cast.