Hey all, sorry its taken so long to get this bad boy up, its been a really busy sporting weekend in Madison which has kept me off the whole forecasting thing. Coupled with the turning in my first draft of my thesis (yay) I've been really busy, but holy cow this storm is certainly giving a write-up on
ALSO THIS JUST IN WISCONSIN IS PLAYING US IN MARCH!!!! BRING IT BADGERS! (real request someone make me a gif of the hokie bird beating up the badger)
ahem excuse me, anyway back to the weather, a noreaster is a storm that typically happens based on prominent weather conditions in spring. We have a low that develops in and around the gulf and picks up lots of moisture thats held into place by a high pressure system over the New England region. Once it gathers enough strength it hugs up the coast and drops a ton of snow is temperatures are right. This is much more dangerous than say a clipper which is a snow storm moving from west to east that can drop a lot of snow quickly but moves a lot faster and doesnt have as much of an impact
Noreaster
Alberta Clipper
We're looking at a noreaster and based on the location of the low and the freezing line for most of Virginia it should be primarily rain. The freezing line is hugging the metro area however and could still mean about half a foot or more for that region. The line has been trending north steadily for the last few days, meaning it could easily move north of dc spelling a nice wintry mix for the city and not much accumulation. I'll try to keep an eye on it and keep you guys posted as the week goes on.
If that line moves north, you can fully expect a good bit of snow
TL:DR Anyone north of Virginia should be concerned about getting a foot or more of snow. South of DC i wouldn't really expect anything at all. DC itself could easily get a foot or 3" way to close to call at this point
Letme know if you have any questions
Comments
I live in Bethesda MD and Weather.com says we can expect 8-12 inches of snow on Monday night and another 3-5 inches on Tuesday. What are your thoughts on their prediction?
again youre really close to that freezing line, if that line keeps trending north you could see that number plummet. as of now id say around a foot is probably a decent bet but it really depends on the temperature
Soooo, congrats to the basketball team that has to fly through that on their way to Buffalo
Yup, this is gonna make it tougher for fans to get up there
If they fly on Wednesday they'll be fine, Buffalo gets 18" or more at least 5 times each winter. Major roads and the airport will be clear within hours after the storm ends on Tuesday.
except the storm doesnt end tuesday, it ends wed afternoon, furthermore usually teams want to warm up and practice once on the court they'll be playing on. Plus winds will be a big issue, and I can only imagine that airports will be extra cautious after the Michigan debacle
central jersey here - exact midpoint as the crow flies between philly & NYC- your thoughts on the 12-18" predicted for us?
probably a good forecast, the bullseye will be right within that region and if you guys fall into that (currently has it hitting eastern penn) youll bounce up to about 20-24"
Thanks man- in central jersey we always seem to be on that 'zone' for storms where it could swing significantly either way depending on the final track, both for nor'easters and Alberta clippers alike.
Thanks for the update. Please let me know if you see a major change for us. In any case, it looks like I'll be working form home on Tuesday.
It's St. Paddy's, not St. Patty's
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/lifestyle/2014/03/please-dont-call-it-st-pat...
Dang man, I want another foot of snow :(
I am in Newark DE, current forecasts calling for 5-8 or 8-12. Any thoughts? And once again thanks for you informative but easy to read/understand explanations of the world of weather.
Good ole Newark. My family lives down in Middletown, and I was in Bear for a few years after college living the "I make money now but we are 5 minutes from UofD bars" life with my boys before moving out to AZ
Newark took a little bit of getting used to after 4.5 years in Blacksburg followed by a year in Lynchburg for work. It has grown on us quite a bit over the last 2+ years, just had to learn that all of the good stuff (mountains, beaches, concert venues, cities) is available with a little bit of preparation and some driving. We also enjoy the real life money mixed with college town bars situation, though we like it a lot more when college is not in session.
Thanks so much for your easy to understand and informative posts. I have a business lunch scheduled in Erie, PA on Wednesday. I have to drive from Pittsburgh to Erie and back for the meeting. Should I try to reschedule?
alrighty update time: dc im pretty sure youre gonna get snow, probably about half a foot
erie PA: itll be a nice long steady snowfall when all is said in done i expect 9-10" in that region. tricky part there is the drive up. id avoid central pa like the plague and frankly id stay the night too, travel is going to be tricky through all of this
finally newark and oh boy is this a tough one, id say 8" but again youre right on the line. letme put this into perspective: the eastern shore and southernmost part of delaware are looking at half an inch, easternmost part of maryland? 16-20"
pretty confident central jersey will be looking at about a foot
finally bethesda: much like dc youre probably looking at about 6-8"
one more thing i forgot to mention is the winds, gusts could easily get into the 30 mph range. be warned everybody, by definition this will probably be a blizzard. DO NOT TRY TO DRIVE OR DO ANYTHING CRAZY stock up now and be safe hokies in the northeast! also good luck to the team on the trip, i realllllly wanna win this game
Still holding with the expectations for those of us south of DC (read: the Burg)?
my guess is "boring"
again depends on the cold air but id expect a dusting to 2" TOPS but more likely a rainy sleety gross mix sorry folks. itll just be to warm at the surface, not to say you wont get moments of snowfall it just will be to warm for significant accumulation imo
Thank you sir, you're a scholar and a gentleman.
Eshiben. Thanks for the update. Postponed the trip to next week.
Do you mean easternmost part of Maryland, like Baltimore, or the westernmost part of Maryland.
easternmost, thats how quick the dropoff is on the edge of this storm its pretty impressive
Damn, all this shitty weather really makes me wanna drink.
Any predictions for Roanoke? Every hour I hear a foot of snow and then all rain..........
id expect a mix, just not gonna be cold enough. as far as snow accumulation maybe an inch or two
Weather.com is projecting State College is going to get 10"-16"
And still snowing here!
Shoveled twice today, once about 6-8 inches the other about an inch. Still blustery ans pseudo-snowing but everything appears to be all clear.
It has really picked up out in Boalsburg, had to shovel three times and we got ours plowed early this morning
Buddy of mine over in Lewisburg got 18 inches.
How bad will it get down here in SC at the beach? I'm fearing the worst 40 degrees with lots of rain.
It's even worse than that the feels like right now is 34! I'm not going to wear shorts this morning, not happy about it.
Thought you & the missus were doing a Torian Gray rely to FL??
Supposed to hit 90 here in Scottsdale...brutal
oh mama dc you got off light freezing line moved west. significantly decreased snowfall amounts, i believe final measurements were around 3" in the region
yea all universities closed in dc but federal employees only got a 3 hour delay
Sounds about right. I think we got right around 2" here in Silver Spring, MD. I just finished clearing our walkway and driveway and damn, was that snow heavy. It's a lot of slush and ice mixed in so even though it's not deep, it's a b*tch to move around. And my snowblower is out of commission (busted chain) so it's all manual work for me, hooray!
Think positively it might melt away before it turns into a solid lump of ice.
Sykesville was about 4" of that same slush. The base was already frozen over when I left for work. Then, I drove down 29 to Silver Spring at 6am because I thought the roads would not be that bad and quickly realized it was not a good idea.