For starters let me go ahead and say no Irma will have absolutely 0 effect on the VT-Delaware game, if you don't care about a potential natural disaster skip down past this next part. However now that the models have zeroed in I feel beyond compelled to say that Miami is about to get rocked. This storm is MASSIVE, and not only that but powerful as well. Let me put it into context for you, while the storm makes landfall in Miami, and moves up the coast of Florida you'll feel gale force winds all the way up in South Carolina (for those not familiar gale force winds are about 40 mph and dangerous). THATS CRAZY. Just because the storm is making landfall on the east coast of Florida, doesn't mean you wont feel the effects on the west coast or elsewhere. I would evacuate PRONTO.
Early outlook from some Island nations where Irma made landfall already have been....bleak at best, 90% of all structures Sint Maarten in the Carribean, this thing is worth the hype.
I also fully expect the storm to restrengthen as it works it way up the coast and a little bit out into the Atlantic, some waters are a bit warm off the coast giving the storm a chance to pick up a little bit more steam before making its final push into the US, near the Georgia/SC border (more towards Georgia is my bet) and pushing northward. I dont think the storm loses its strength and gets downgraded to a tropical cyclone till almost halfway through Georgia when the land just does enough to disorganize the system, even then though, expect heavy winds and LOTS of rain as it propagates up into Tennessee/Kentucky next Tuesday -Wed (Virginia will feel some effects from the system too)
Miami and southern Florida should see the system make its way north and start feeling the effects ~ as early as Friday night and Saturday morning with some outflow. The full strength of the storm will hit Saturday evening. With the eye making landfall Sunday afternoon. I think college football everywhere will be effected this weekend with games in the following locations needing to look out for some sort of precipitation or wind effects during the game
Florida State - could feel some strong winds come game time
Florida - Also some strong winds
UCF - Rain and Wind (Yes even on Friday)
Other florida schools may have trouble travelling, USF and FIU and FAU all expect to be able to easily return after the game....just seems dumb, take an extra day or two wherever you're travelling and steal some D2 schools field or something
I expect the second landfall to occur around Monday evening in Georgia but you will feel the effects well before that, perhaps as early as Sunday night. I'd consider evacuating if you're along the Georgia coast as well.
South Carolina expect to be WHALLOPED as the super strong front right quadrant of the storm is expected to beat the hell out of the SC coast as the storm hits the Georgia coast. Be ready for some crazy stuff. The storm appears to breakup pretty quickly as it moves inland, so us Virginians I think well be ok, and no UNC doesn't have to worry about playing in a hurricane again this week or next.
ABC had some good coverage of the storm and some good clips if you want to see with your own eyes. If you dont like ABC for whatever reason just search #irma on twitter and I'm sure youll find some good ones
NOW onto Blacksburg weather!
Last week the hokies played in a beautiful game (albeit a little humid, probably should've seen that coming given the rain the days preceding) but it was all worth it as the hokies beat our dreaded rival in an EPIC game that had me standing and pacing by the end. What a great win to get the Josh Jackson hype train running full speed (someone please make me a meme for frequent usage). Seriously I haven't been this excited for a football game in a LONG time, it had EVERYTHING. Missed field goals, near heartbreak, amazing freshman QB performance...Instant classic if I've ever seen one

footage of me after the game
This week we welcome the Blue Hens from Delaware into our beautiful stadium and break out some amazing new helmets for the game

those look sharp
A high pressure system over the Great Lakes region should provide a nice shield from any kind of off weather that we could possibly think of, some cool air should be present, with some cloud cover that will break up as the game progresses. By the end of the game, due to the clouds breaking expect temperatures to drop quickly, lows could get kind of chilly that evening. Expect highs to be in the low 70s and the low to plummet down to the high 40s. (might be a good idea to bring a jacket!) winds should be fairly calm and there is absolutely no chance for any sort of precipitation this game! It should be a glorious opener for our hokies!

ok maybe minus the rainbows...
FINAL PREDICTIONS
High 72
Low 49
Winds - little to none
Clouds - some coverage in the afternoon that will give way by night
Precip - Nada
Its gonna be a beautiful day for hokie football!!!! Go Hokies and stay safe everyone down south!


Comments
100% Chance of Beer
When it comes to beer, 100% just seems...inadequate.
Miami game is cancelled per ABC. Forgive me if I am supposed to embed a link or something. Still have family in Puerto Rico and Miami. Thanks for the update! GO HOKIES!
Drink
and
drink -- well, maybe not on this one. The comments don't end well.
So I have relatives about an hour south of Jacksonville and about 5 miles off the coast. They're convinced it will only be a category 3 by the time it gets that far north. Since they survived Matthew unscathed (category 3) they aren't evacuating. Give me something scientific to use as ammo to convince them to visit us in western Virginia for a few days. Please?
Edit: Oh, and thanks for the write up. Appreciate your time and effort.
little bit different than matthew, thisll hug the shores much closer and will reload in the warm waters offshore. Just because you got lucky once doesnt mean you should double down, thats how stupid people get debt at vegas
Natural selection
tropicaltidbits.com is a good one too
Am I the only one who sees JJ punching himself in the nuts?
Uhh, I think you meant to say JJ the Hype Plane
Creepiest kids show ever.
You've obviously never seen BoohBahs
Jesus, did the makers of teletubbies mix in some heroin with their lsd?
no, but I'd bet it's still less creepy than this:


or this:
Thanks, I'm going to have nightmares tonight.
You'll get some relief on Saturday and forget all about it.
Is the truck carrying the helicopter? If so, why?
Is the guy?.... Is the bear?....
Feel like it would be weird to be a 19 year old kid and see your face photoshopped on a cartoon airplane haha. Random observation. Carry on.
So TKP meteorological guru I need a good website where I can get a best guess for landfall. I'm taking the kids to Richmond but wife has to stay, she is from Midwest so she is freaking the fuck out. I really don't want to be climbing all over the house drilling holes into the walls to but up boards if it's only a Cat 1 or 2 here. We live far enough off the water that storm surge isn't an issue and have no trees of any kind within 30 yards of the house. When can I expect NHC to get a better idea of landfall? I need as much lead time as I can get.
The links that folks provided in the other thread are pretty good. I've been looking at windy.com a lot the last couple of days.
I've also been following this twitter account:
Everything I've seen the last few days leads me to believe that no one can do better than a 5 day projection with any certainty.
NHC is great so is capital weather gang and anything from weatherbell i also trust the wxrisk guy hes good
Wxrisk is good but Dave have serious issues playing well with others.
I thoroughly enjoyed when he was taking shots at Nikki-Dee Ray.
Euro or GFS model to follow? Waiting until Sunday with that turn north isn't enough time for me to get everything done.
I'm going to our game at Miami on November 4. Is it going to be bad enough that I won't have anywhere to stay? Already booked a hotel in South Beach. Not to worry more about my vacation than people's homes, just trying to get an idea of what to expect.
The path changed
not to shocking, storm is going right up the florida peninsula. Even worse news for Miami though. Rule of thumb is you dont want to be on the top right part of the storm, for a number of reasons thats the most dangerous. Miami falls square in that target....
Time to remind my grandparents in-law to get the hell out of florida
247 said it was better for miami?
lolwut? iunno what model theyre looking at
hes saying in the case of the high strengthening itll push the hurricane 50-100 miles west which would help a good bit but hes hoping itll strengthen a lot. kind of a conditional statement
so moving some discussion to this thread.
if the storm stays inland and moves up the peninsula, will that reduce storm surge on the coast?
i live 3 miles inland in ST Aug, but if the storm passes west of me, that is going to change wind directions and make the main attack from the south to east quad rather than east to north, yes/no?
it should, i mean remember this is a giant low pressure center so its pulling water inward and counter clockwise so look from the eye and turn counter clockwise.
surge will still exist though and wind will be worse. Miami being on the top right quadrant is in super danger
went to the liquor store today and my goodness it was EMPTY... even the $120 dollar bottles of scotch lol
In Oviedo and we should be fine, not really boarding up yet until tomorrow if storm moves more west. Got water, bread, peanut butter, jelly. Charcoal, bourbon, buns, sausage, hot dogs, chicken, and ribs that i'll throw on the grill once it passes in case power goes out and we need to eat.
LEMME SEE WHAT YA GOT IRMA YOU NAUGHTY GIRL!!!!
This new westward track is how reliable? Because local news are using different models it seems.
euro composite pulled it further west. by west track its basically just boning the entire peninsula with the eye wall basically landing on the southern tip of the state
Boning heheheheh
Southern tip that's what she said
Me, crying inside it's going to be NUTS
Whatever you can do to pass the time, I guess.
This tweet claims to compare Hurricane Andrew from 1992 with Hurricane Irma today. For those of you who know more than me, is this kind of "scale" picture a good indicator of its destructive power or is it mostly shock factor? Because this picture is shocking (for me as someone who doesn't know much about weather).
welp im almost willing to put money on it at this point, miami is gonna get hit with the front right quadrant of the storm. I realllllly hope theyre ready. the system is going to make landfall and tear up the peninsula, expect a ton of damage. while it is better news for us Georgia and SC, this is going to be a disaster if florida isnt properly prepared.
keep them in your thoughts and prayers and I sincerely hope all of the Florida hokies out there on the southern portion of the peninsula have evacuated.
eshiben, whats your projection for rain in the Blacksburg area Monday - Wednesday next week? NOAA models for precip show a combined 2 - 2.5" over ~ a 2 day window. More than that and I have to change my vaca plans.
tough to say, its a little far out and kind of depends on ole Irma here. Euro has it hanging further west as it advances up the coast but its early to call that set in stone.
Thank you for all the feedback eshiben! Everything currently shows this weakening very quickly after Miami. What are your thoughts about the Tampa area? My mom unexplainably went back home from NC and is basically forced to ride it out in a shelter as there are no more flights and they are having issues with no gas apparently. Latest models on CNN show Cat 1 - 2. Thanks again.
i still think itll be a cat 2 to cat 3. i dont love that shes in tampa not gonna lie but shes doing what she needs to do if shes in a shelter. stay elevated, away from glass, and away from the gulf
I am in Tampa and waited too late. We will be heading to Palm Harbor which will be a little further from the storm. There is no gas and very few supplies. Harvey alerted a lot of people.
That is exactly where she is at, Palm Harbor. Going to be at the shelter there. I tried to get her out on a flight today and thought I had one but then read where with the shortage on gas that I would have trouble getting a shuttle or taxi to the airport.
stay safe and please keep us all updated
More shifting west. Ft. Meyers, Tampa etc heads up.
Could it hit Tampa Fort Myers area and rip across the state towards Atlantic Ocean. If so that would be BRUTAL.
Marco Island is getting hammered. Hopefully the TKP member who had to stay behind is riding it out ok.