By the Advanced Numbers: East Carolina

A statistical preview of the matchup as the Hokies travel to Greenville to clash with the Pirates.

In 2016, the Hokies absolutely dominated East Carolina 54-17, a result among many other outcomes which signaled things in the Justin Fuente era were different. And yet, after so many years of disappointing results against the Pirates, one blowout doesn't feel like enough to shake the nerves leading up to the matchup. Although, the Pirates have played absolutely terrible football thus far in 2017, enough so that defensive coordinator Kenwick Thompson was replaced by DL coach Robert Prunty. However, teams rarely progress or regress by such huge margins in one offseason, so the Pirates are almost certainly not as bad as they've played thus far.

While personality stats are not available until after week 7, overall performance as well as offensive and defensive performance, adjusted for opponents, provide some insight into what to expect on Saturday.

Where the Season Stands

Virginia Tech is currently 2-0, including a nationally televised, primetime win against a ranked West Virginia team at FedExField. Really! The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:

The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:

12-0 is still in play!

Rankings and Computer Predictions

The computer rankings and predictions for each team:

None of this means anything, because ECU. The odds of a 22-point favorite winning are 93.4%.

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:

The Hokies' offense has performed slightly better than the usually strong Pirates' offense, while the defense has enjoyed a more significant advantage. As in Tech's defense has been great, while the ECU defense has been trash emoji.

Who To Watch Out For

Based on this year's stats, there are no players to watch out for on the Pirates' roster. However, it would be naive to think that talent disappeared in the offseason and base too many conclusions on only two games. This week features a player from each team:

  1. WR Jimmy Williams is a dangerous threat after averaging 18.18 yards per catch last season. With the departure of Zay Jones, look for Williams to be the target when the Pirates need a chunk of yards.
  2. Punter Oscar Bradburn, 15th in the country with a 46.15 yards per punt average and the No. 2 rated freshman. More importantly, what can ECU expect if a returner breaks through and faces Bradburn one-on-one? "I'll deck him straight away. I'll put him on his ass."

Statistical Key to the Game

Thus far this season, the Pirates have regressed on both offense and defense. I'm buying ECU's high efficiency offense of the past few years is gone because the coaches who put it in place have since departed. I'm not as confident ECU's defense is as bad as shown thus far, and I still don't trust the Hokies' offense to consistently produce. While Tech's game plan for Delaware may not have involved much creativity, I'm concerned it didn't involve more run game and that inaccurate throws took away potentially explosive plays.

Virginia Tech's run game will struggle until defenses are forced to respect the threat of explosive pass plays. Therefore, I'm focused on completions of 20-plus yards as the key to a convincing Tech win.

Statistical Prediction

I believe past struggles against ECU are a combination of scheme and matchup issues as well as bad luck. While there may still be some matchup concerns, bad luck is temporary. I think we see an East Carolina that is not as bad as the first two games have shown, but it still outclassed and doesn't ever threaten to win this one.

Virginia Tech 37, East Carolina 17

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.

Comments

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The Orange and Maroon you see, that's fighting on to victory.

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Born in Charlottesville, Reborn in Blacksburg

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Take the shortest route to the ball and arrive in bad humor.

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Joffrey, Cersei, Ilyn Payne, the Hound, Jeff Jagodzinski, Paul Johnson, Pat Narduzzi.

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I love a good nap. Sometimes that's all that's getting me out of bed in the morning.

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I love a good nap. Sometimes that's all that's getting me out of bed in the morning.

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Hey! It goes beyond big brother in the sky
Beyond the threat of martial law, No Horus eye
No one came to cuff you they just handed you the chain
Blind follows the blind and now the one-eyed man is king

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There is nothing in the world like Thursday night in Blacksburg!

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Hokie in West Africa...sadly, I can't jump up and down hard enough for it to be felt in Lane

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You put those words together, those are my favorite words, Popeyes and bahama
- Mike Burnup

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"We judge ourselves by our intentions and others by their behavior" Stephen M.R. Covey

β€œWhen life knocks you down plan to land on your back, because if you can look up, you can get up, if you fall flat on your face it can kill your spirit” David Wilson

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If you don't want to recruit clowns, don't run a clown show.

"I want to punch people from UVA right in the neck." - Colin Cowherd

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"The Big Ten is always using excuses to cancel games with us. First Wisconsin. Then Wisconsin. After that, Wisconsin. The subsequent cancellation with Wisconsin comes to mind too. Now Penn State. What's next? Wisconsin?" -HorseOnATreadmill

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Another white bronco? The first one didn't go too far.

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I just sit on my couch and b*tch. - HokieChemE2016

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I can imagine no more rewarding a career. And any man who may be asked in this century what he did to make his life worthwhile, I think can respond with a good deal of pride and satisfaction:
β€œI served in the United States Navy"

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Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

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I can imagine no more rewarding a career. And any man who may be asked in this century what he did to make his life worthwhile, I think can respond with a good deal of pride and satisfaction:
β€œI served in the United States Navy"

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