Josh Jackson's been highly efficient when pushing the ball deep. Obligatory caveat that four of five defenses Virginia Tech has faced have been trash.
VT's Josh Jackson has been off target on throws of 10 yards or more just 8.5% of the time... 2nd-best rate among P5 QBs.— #DaHale (@DavidHaleESPN) October 4, 2017
Josh Jackson on throws of 10+ yards downfield: 35-of-59 for 843 yards, 10 TDs and no INTs. Stats essentially match Baker Mayfield's.— #DaHale (@DavidHaleESPN) October 4, 2017
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we also setup for the longer throws where our receivers are mostly open, not too many jump balls
Isn't this the objective of all offenses? Give JJ credit he finds and hits those receivers.
We had that last year too, but didn't hit many of them. Evans was a good QB, so give JJ some credit, because he's doing something that Evans struggled to do.
ESPN had an article putting him in the top 10 QBs this season so far, and as the only freshman. I was only able to read the blurb because I refuse to pay for ESPN insider, but it anyone does, would be interested in seeing what they have to say about him
I think it basically says he's the best freshman qb ever /s
Really though, it talks about how he is 15/25 on passes 20 yds or longer with 7-800 yds and like 5 tds. Those are the best >20yd passing numbers in the nation
This is really perplexing to me. He looks good when he throws downfield. The stats say the same even if mostly against bad teams. But every time we play a quality opponent Fuente seems EXTREMELY reluctant to let him do it. It took him a really long time to let him throw downfield in the WVU game and the opportunity never even seemed to be given to him against Clemson.
French has pointed at that the coaching staff "protects" the QB. I think they want to keep him from making confidence killing mistakes. I am on the fence about that. Early on Michael Brewer came on like a bat out of hell but as he started throwing picks he became more apprehensive and missed opportunities. I think they would rather try to have him learn from analysis and watching than from devastation mistakes. Having said that, his stats are good when does throw long. I was going to watch every snap he's thrown and do an analysis on his long throws but that is pretty time consuming and I don't have the free time right now. I'm hoping to see more of it and I'm hoping he keeps and maintains his confidence and composure.
I can understand that line of thought to an extent but I think you have to open up the playbook a bit more when it becomes obvious that protecting the QB / being conservative isn't working. They succeeded with this against WVU, but it became obvious some change was needed against Clemson and it didn't seem to happen until it was way too late.
Agreed. I still don't understand that CJ Carroll pass play. Jackson's late passing TD to Savoy was beautiful. Clemson was able to stuff the run with 5 or fewer players and that meant 6 or more players in the mid to back field which would be very difficult to pass on if you did not know that was their approach. Fuente mentioned in the presser after the game that Clemson's D played very differently than they normally play in that they weren't aggressive and sat back in coverage. I don't know what happened prior to that TD but it's possible Clemson totally ignored the deep part of the field.
That late 4th quarter TD was against the second team Klempson Defense. What happened before the 4th quarter is we played against the first team Klempson defense.
Three thoughts on this:
1. The same mistakes that would hurt the QB's confidence and development would also hurt you in the game.
2. If you're balancing two or three years of performance from a R-Freshman QB against winning one game, even the Clemson game, I'm not sure how you do that calculus.
3. There must be a reason CJF has a reputation as a "QB whisperer."
We have to trust Fuente- he is going to bring some talent to the Burg. We have been spotty for years at quarterback- he is going to have them ling up to play here. We already have QB talent on the bench, and he is going to bring offensive players here by showing recruits our leaders at the QB position . The recruiting talent will follow the leader of the team- Great QB-great talent will follow.
Northern Neck, by any chance?
With Clemson's talent on the D-Line, I honestly don't think it was ever in the gameplan to go long; certainly not at the risk of forcing it and throwing a deep INT because of the limited time to sit in the pocket.
However, even with pressure, I've been impressed with JJ's mid-range connections. The two that come to mind were the throw to Cam against WVU in the first quarter where he went to the 2nd floor to grab it and came down on the 5 yard line and the late connection with Savoy against Clemson. I know that was against their 2nd Team DL, but there was pretty good pressure and he threw it on a rope. Both were +15 yard throws.
I think Fuente is more reluctant to trust Josh unless the pass is there for him. As we saw vs ODU, Josh can try and force it downfield sometimes, and that's what Fuente wants to avoid.
Meh if JJ throws 15 ints on the year but also throws 40 TDs, I'll allow it.
This felt true before seeing the stats. The last several years I remember many plays where Brewer or Evans would overthrow an open receiver downfield. Part of the problem this year is it seems like guys don't get open downfield as often, but having a guy who can hit on deep throws consistently is a good first step.
I would like to see how this is distributed across the four quarters. Do we see more deep passes later in the game after CornFu have shown the early game 'tendencies" setting up defenders to put themselves out of position, making the deep throws more open?
Man, this really makes me miss the NCAA Football Games, imagine JJ passing four verts :(
Maybe his success is due to underthrowing it? You don't need to be Joe Montana to connect that overthrows are incompletions or interceptions 100% of the time. Underthrows give your guy a chance to adjust or get you in PI scenarios.
I can't think of one deep ball he has overthrown. He's airmailed some in the red zone through the back and high but that may also just be his throw-away ball.
Under throws also have the ability to stop the play once the ball is catched. It also makes it easier for defenders to possibly intercept.
Overthrow has 2 negative possible outcomes and 0 possible positive. Underthrown has 2 positive possible outcomes and 2 negative possible outcomes. Give me underthrown if it isn't on target.
How about we hit WRs in stride. That way we have 2 outcomes. A completion or a drop. Hopefully the completion will lead to a TD!
Or a 3rd option where the ball hits the receiver in the hands, in stride, pops up, into a defenders hands
Wait...
are you saying boo or boo-urns?
I'm honestly not seeing how an interception is a likely outcome of an overthrown deep ball. To me it seems like an overthrow is most likely to be incomplete and essentially nobody has a chance. An underthrown ball has a possibility of a catch, an interception, or a pass interference. Essentially it comes down to the WR versus the DB and you have to determine if you have a receiver who is good enough to prevent the interception and create one of the positive outcomes.
Double coverage, safety over the top, QB doesn't notice.
We love that when we're on defense.
Throwing into double coverage is a totally different issue and a mistake regardless of if a deep ball is overthrown or underthrown in my opinion. It wouldn't be encouraged to throw into double coverage if the QB just underthrows it because the CB can shield the receiver with the safety having a clear path for a pick.
Reading my reply again, "double coverage" definitely wasn't the right term. I was trying to describe something like this:
... or this:
He's been good downfield but I think the stat definition helps him by sitting at anything over ten yards. I would consider that intermediate which he has done very well and has been very accurate and gotten chunk yardage by hitting guys over the middle in that range. If you change the stat to 20+ yards I think you will see a big change. Maybe not as much for touchdowns but I think that completion percentage goes down a good bit. He's good and has impressed for a freshman, but still has a lot of work to do in terms of his game beyond statistics.
Saw last night on the espn ticker that JJ has 12 TDs on the year, good for 2d in the ACC and leading all freshman QBs .
Maintaining a 4:1 TD:INT ratio.
Does "on/off-target" account for drops? If not, his statistical accuracy %age is actually higher.
On the other hand: those stats may treat underthrown balls that a receiver adjusts to and catches as "accurate" - some of which are great plays by the receivers (hiding inaccuracy) and some of which may be JJ purposely underthrowing in order to protect his target or adjust to coverage mid-play (showing wisdom beyond his years).
I'm not counting or discounting these stats, but if anyone has specifics on what they actually entail it could paint a more ... accurate picture.
YYYEEEOOOOWWWWWWW
Hey, as an aside, was Cam nursing some kind of injury in the Clemson game? He just didn't look like the Cam we saw previously. I know Clemson was double-teaming him, and trying to take him out of his game, but he still appeared a step slow and a little sluggish when he got the ball. I hope he's ok, cause we're going to need him as the season goes on!
It looked to me like he grabbed the inside of his thigh at one point after getting up from being tackled. I believe it was well into the 2nd half
Improved deep ball vs what we saw from Evans is what I was expecting to see this year. That said, I didn't expect JJ to be this good this early (even knowing that we faced some weak D's early in the season).