College Football Odds for Nov 04, 2017
I don't know if this line says more about Tech or more about Miami. What do y'all think about this point spread?
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College Football Odds for Nov 04, 2017
I don't know if this line says more about Tech or more about Miami. What do y'all think about this point spread?
Comments
Like the Nissan at your local car show
Too low
Look at Miami's turnover margin. They have been eeking out games by getting turnovers. I am a Phil Steel fan, and he cautions against betting on teams with an inflated turnover margin
Miami's total points off of turnovers is substantially lower than ours and they have forced more turnovers.
Thats because their offense kinda sucks this year.
They're 42nd in points scored. So they're not good (playing against an easy schedule too), but they're not bad necessarily.
And some of the bookmakers have already bumped it to -3. Looks like the early money is on the good guys
I was surprised to see that when I looked this morning. Right now I think its more a reflection that Vegas doesn't think too highly of Miami.
Not as a knock on us, as they clearly see us as being able to win the game. But I don't think the line as it opened was because they believed that the good guys were a vastly superior team, just better than an overrated Miami.
Gamblers really like VT in this game. Also according to the link in your post VT is a 2 point underdog.
So perhaps a reflection of the fact that EVERYBODY, not just Vegas, sees that the Canes aren't BAK yet.
A lot of people here, myself included, have chided the sportswriting world for hailing the bakness of Miami, but they're the lowest ranked undefeated P5 team. Not only that, but they're still below several 1 loss teams. So what are we supposed to do if Miami isn't actually bak, rank them in the teens as one of only 4 remaining P5 undefeateds? It's difficult to make a case for that.
Based on their schedule and performance, they should be below UCF. Similar SOS, but UCF has dominated while da U has barely eeked out W's in the last 4 games.
Link in the post indicates that they opened (first line that posted) as 2 point dogs. The books that it summarized all have the Hokies currently as 2.5 or 3 point favorites.
That's crazy. Almost a 5 point swing in the line before Monday afternoon. I almost feel like that's a typo on their part. Either that or there really must have been A LOT of money coming in on us when the lines first got published.
According to Andy Bitter, Miami opened as 3.5 point favorites last night but it moved to VT -3 within an hour. I'm on my phone so I can't embed the tweet right now but he tweeted it around 6pm yesterday
I'm sure it's higher, but this makes me wonder what the all time record 24 hour line change would be. If there even is a recordable stat for that.
That would be something injury-related I'm sure. I think Big Ben was worth 7 points for the Steelers against the Patriots last year. Aaron Rodgers was worth 10 this year I think.
...Holy hell. Lines almost never flip that quickly unless a team's QB gets arrested for murder.
Rozier apparently is in a sling, may not throw all week.
Hope he makes a quick recovery and can play Saturday. I do not want to hear any excuses from them.
On the other hand, we still remember MV7's ankle in 2000. If we win, we can call it even.
I don't care what they whine about. If kid can't play, then "next man up" is Miami's motto, so let's see it. I feel the same about FSU. Sorry to see Franscois hurt, but I take no pity on them having to play a true frosh. Both teams get way too many high quality recruits for 1 injury to derail their year or cost them a game, unless it's against the likes of Bama, where the margin of error is 0 and even if you don't make errors, you could still get smoked.
well yeah, but Jerod left early -and he should've stayed so we (were) supposed to be better anyway...
(sarcastica font)
All their butts are going to be in a sling come Saturday night.
For some reason this screams Red Foreman.
If we give Settle 25 would it be easier to just remove his arm?
Nah, hopefully he plays. Timmy will remove the arm for him.
I mean, it's been pretty clear some of the QBs we've faced haven't really wanted to be out there against our defense, but they at least had the common decency to show up to the game. Psh. /s
THEY AINT PLAYED NOBODY PAWWWWWWWLLLLLLL
honestly, I hoped that Miami would be the favorite so I could bet the money line on Tech and get a nice payday.
Means its really close...damn, do we get 1/2 point for any scenario in football...win by Joey Slye field goal
On a neutral field that would be a -6 point line if VT was home it would be about- 8. Vegas thinks the Hokies are better than Miami . I think we are the better team but best team does not always win . We just won 106 to 20 against BC , UNC and Duke and nearly doubled them in total yardage . BC got some garbage yards late to make that look better but they are proving to be pretty good . Coach Fu has us rolling .
Although the flip side of that, you could make the case that the Clemson points were garbage points that made the game closer for VT.
I still think we are better than Miami, I want Time Settle to run to Da U's sideline and snatch the turnover chain after he gets a scoop and score. Who is gonna stop him?
We weren't ready for that Clemson team, and it showed that we just aren't ready for a matchup against a true elite team. That's not a bad thing, most teams aren't ready, especially those with as much youth at key spots as we have. But Miami isn't an elite team. We should match up well against them, and they just don't pass the eye test at all.
I don't believe this to be true at all. Dragon's fumble. Dropped pass pick 6. Broken play TD. At least 14 point swing there. We lost by 14. Had we not turned the football over, we would have been in the game late much like last years championship with them.
We made mistakes, and against a team of their ability, you cannot make mistakes and win. Discipline is a part of the game, and not a part we were ready to handle that night. With more experience, that could and possibly should be different, but in that game that night, we were not ready for a game like that.
We outgained Clemson in total yardage the only team to do that in a long time . The turnovers were the killers in that game they played mistake free . I do think Clemson was the better team but that would have been a close game without the turnovers . Dabo has talent advantage and a program that been rolling for a while but Fu will get him and sooner rather than later . Vt is smoking the bad - average teams ECU ,ODU , BC , Duke and UNC . Score in those games average is 41-7 that is why we are getting vegas respect . We are leaving points on the field with a very young offense and our D is headed into elite status .
thank you sir ill take that
Miami was one lucky deflected pass away from losing to GT and barely beat UNC who played their third string QB for most of the game.
Using the completely magical and totally unscientific but probably fun bovine fecal transform the predicted score of this game is:
VT 45 MIA 14
I think I remember a class where we learned about the bovine fecal transform.
I think Kaaya is/was a much better passer than Rosier Jr is.
Rosier will be hanging on by duct tape and 1-2 big hits could put him out of the game early.
Stop Berrios and Homer and VT wins by 17
I know a lot of people. I have never met an IRS agent nor a Miami fan.
Good guys 28 and bad boys 12.
Are you saying you need to get out more? I don't understand.
/s
I think he's bragging about paying his taxes on time, mister moneybags over here
In the month of October, we have outscored opponents 106-20 in just three games and Miami outscored their opponents 100-82 in four games. Miami is squeaking out wins by the skin of their teeth. They won't be so lucky Saturday night.
28-10 Good guys.
1 defensive score. Tim Settle lays the wood on Rozier, makes his arm fall off with the ball still in his hand, and carries the whole damn arm into the end zone. Might even chew on the bone a little bit.
Lol, funny. Disturbing, but funny.....
And now I have saved that gif. Awesome.
This made me laugh out loud at work...well done.
Same here.
I don't want to see that
But is that a touchdown or a safety?
Both 8 point play, good guys.
After the "conversation" I had with a Miami fan today, I'm saying 59-3 Good guys.
Beat the ever living hell out of them, boys. Don't let off the gas. Make them wish they didn't even start up the damn bus.
I hate living in South Florida....
I feel the same way here in Atlanta, except there is no such thing as "GT fans"... just me stewing over the losses when they happen, and no one to lay the smack talk down on after the wins.
Hope to see you TKPers on the 18th!
I'm surprised that of all the predictions in this thread we haven't seen the classic VT-Miami score.
Tech wins 31-7.
Zarzour and McElroy on ESPNUradio (formerly SiriusXM college) are high on us. Expect VT to win Saturday, and boost Clemson's SOS in December into possibly a 2 or 3 spot.
Didn't have time to call and ask what if it went the other way.
Watched the UNC/Miami tilt yesterday.
My three takeaways are
1. Geez Louise... Their defense is FAST. Especially the LBs; those kids are lickety-split. However, Saturday they got caught out of position a few times. Fuente will see that.
2. Coach Richt does not look like an Alpha-Dog on the sideline. Body Language tells me he's holding things together by a string.
3. I think Rozier is definitely playing hurt.
Report was he didn't throw at all yesterday and might not today.
Richt is so uncomfortable with Diaz, the turnover chain, and the fact that the kids love it that I won't be surprised to see him actually retire in 2 or 3 years.
Yeah, LB's are fast but out of position a lot. Mis-direction ate them up.
UNC had 428 yds of O on them (172 vs VT). At least 2 of the 3 picks were horrible throws by the QB and essentially unforced errors.
Sounds like Nijman may miss the game.
my stomach hurts
Pat Forde picked Tech to win 24-17 in his Forde Yard Dash. Doesn't mean anything, but interesting to see the national perception.
Odd part is that these same media types have Miami ahead of VT in their rankings. How do you put one team ahead of the other in your ranking, then say the lower ranked team would win a road game at higher ranked team's place?
Because you have to play the game to earn a higher ranking.
Yeah, that's really not it. Both ranking and choosing a winner is completely subjective pregame and supposedly based on the current "body of work". It says that in their minds, Miami hasn't done anything to deserve their ranking, but they rank them high anyway, which is an illogical behavior.
Now that I've written this, I'm an idiot for thinking media types are "logical" beings.
Then why do we pick upsets to occur? If they're subjective to their current body of work why were so many media members high on upsets a few weeks ago?
TO BE THE MAN, YOU GOTTA BEAT THE MAN! WOOOO!
Rankings are as much resume/what have you proven as it is who is bettter. Otherwise we'd just let vegas do the rankings and be done with it
I'd make the same argument for choosing a winner in a game. That is unless the higher ranked team has had a key injury(s)/suspension(s), between the time that the polls came out and the game prediction occurs. This is not the case for VT at Miami, this weekend.
I need some help...
I'm trying to make a giant cardboard cut out of Tyrod in the pouring rain holding up the upside down "U" hand gesture.
I want to put it in my co-workers cubicle when we win.
but I can't seem to find it, does anyone have this or know where I can find it?
I just searched for ten minutes without luck, 2009 game right?
Yep, 2009 Miami at home...
I've investigated google for almost an hour at work with every word combination I can think of including the word "VT, Tyrod, Rain, Hand gesture, Miami"....
Can't seem to find it and it seems like a pretty widely known/used photo
Found it on my old roommate's facebook from like 09. Thank historyhokie.
i must be dislexic. I thought he held it upside down?
I remember some of the students in North doing that but I don't remember Tyrod doing that. He might have though.
I thought he did too, but this is what was saved 8 years ago in the depths of my facebook.
I can't resist...
Gonna be hard to work with cardboard in the pouring rain.
ah, naw it's going in an office cube... I was just describing the scene of the photo: "Tyrod in the pouring rain holding up the "U" hand gesture"
Unfortunately, I wont be attending the game in Miami.
You're in the majority, even if you lived in the stadium.
Not that it means much, it's just fun to look at, but the computers have us winning huge... 42-10...
Computer Predictions
The line has shifted to Miami -1.5 over the past day on my book
It's now -2 Miami on mine.
Some people are laying some serious money down on Miami.
Do the sharps generally place their money early or late? Would be interesting if its common money or smart money shifting the line.
I've seen them purposely move a line and then hammer the ML right before game time.
I've honestly never seen a swing like this without an injury.
vegasinsider.com has a listing of a dozen or so places, all of which have -2.5 to -3 for Miami.
Now the Hokies feel disrespected. We win by default, right?!?
Good. The more credibility people try to give to Miami, the more valuable our win will be.