Wisconsin hasn't played any tough teams. Ohio State looked great on Saturday. Notre Dame also has some quality wins. Too bad NC State couldn't take them out last Saturday. Top 4 will change!!! I predict only 2 of these teams actually make it to playoff.
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1. Alabama: Is there anything to discuss here?
2. VT: Well, duh
3. Miami: Because they're back
4. Penn St.: Because nothing says you've earned a spot in the CFB Playoffs quite like not making it to your conference championship game (see OSU 2016).
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I think we stay right around where we are now. Might move past Washington, but I fear the committee likes teams like Iowa State (even with the 2 losses). As for the top 4, Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and a toss up between Wisconsin and ND.
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I agree with you on Wisconsin... they have one of the easiest schedules and the only game that would look semi-good would be a win against Michigan, which it doesn't look like that will be an impressive win now anyways. I still feel like they will be in the first top 4 at least until some other blockbuster games are played. And of course the conference championship if they make it.
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I think VT might shuffle a spot or 2 in either direction, no higher than 11 , no lower than 15.
1. Bama
2. UGA
3. Wisci
4. Oklahoma
Can't see how you can put OSU up in front of OU after they lost at home to them. That doesn't make any sense, despite the proclivity for a recency effect on polls (if you lose, you have to drop, if you win you have to rise). PSU win was a great comeback, but hardly a dominant victory that would put OSU clearly up there. They scrambled and fought for a close win.
I don't think Wisci truly deserves a top stop, but if you are undefeated in a power 5, you should get that consideration until you lose, and they still have OSU or someone else in the title game.
I hope the voters are really high on Miami and give them strong consideration, we could really use the sligshot-and-replace effect when we beat them, especially if our loss is to a team ahead of us inside the top 10.
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I don't think Wisci truly deserves a top stop, but if you are undefeated in a power 5, you should get that consideration until you lose, and they still have OSU or someone else in the title game
I don't think Wisconsin deserves a top spot either, but the whole point of the committee is to weigh the merits of being undefeated but against relative nobodies vs having one loss to a great team while playing a tougher schedule (e.g. Notruh Dahm)
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I say the wins they have will bump them to Top 10.... but the committee will keep that as their ceiling unless others start falling around them. Same situation with Wisconsin, where that #6 is the highest they'll go unless they win the B1G.
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I agree.. but Iowa State is pretty much a new team. Their old QB is gone (which he started for those two losses) and the backup seems to have proven himself so far. Also a side not.. they lost to Texas, who almost beat OU and OKST, and they also lost to Iowa, which is a team that can beat just about anyone given the right conditions. I don't believe in the hype, but just giving a different perspective.
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Plus.... bumping up Iowa St as the token WTF Top 10 team causes people to talk about the otherwise meaningless 1st Playoff Poll. And as we all know, the committee loves drumming up controversy for the sake of controversy.
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I think we'll stay where we are, maybe move +/- a spot.
1. Bama
2. UGA
3. OSU
4. Noter Dame
First two out Penn State & Wisconsin
Before people lose their minds at how Big Ten heavy this is, the poll is going to get dicey. I don't know how the comittee votes, but these look like the 4 best teams right now. Penn St. jumps Clemson for quality of loss and Wisconsin gets the nod because even if your schedule is weak you show up and do your job and stay undefeated that counts for something.
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With Oklahoma and Clemson on the outside looking in. OSU at #4 for ridiculous reasons that the committee won't be able to explain. I think it's stupid that everyone talked like Penn State was overrated because they haven't beaten anyone and we would learn about them against OSU. Then OSU squeaks out a win (at home) and we treat OSU like they're playoff worth despite a pitiful showing at home against OU. So it's like: okay is OSU good because they actually beat a great PSU team? Because before that everyone acted like PSU was overrated. Hopefully that makes sense.
I don't care where we're ranked. I just want to beat Miami.
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I absolutely agree. But it seemed like everyone was ready to write them off with a loss to OSU as an overrated team. So did OSU beat a legit team or an overrated team?
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I know that's at least partially TIC, but H2H and winning your conference does matter, in the case that teams are otherwise tied. Last year was pretty clear cut in that there were exactly four Power 5 teams with either 0 or 1 loss.
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1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Notre Dame
4. Ohio State
5. Clemson
6. Wisconsin
7. Penn State
8. Oklahoma
9. Miami
10. TCU
11. Oklahoma State
12. VT
Notre Dame has the best 1-loss record. Wisconsin's SOS sucks, as does Miami's. Clemson and Ohio State are playing better than Oklahoma. I would put Penn State 6th but it's hard to keep them ahead of Wisconsin at this point, maybe after a week or two they jump.
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The only correct answer if you're not going by eye test BS or what they've done before this year or what you think they'll do in the future. Wisconsin, Ohio State, Clemson, and Penn State are the next 4 in that order.
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I could actually see them ranking them as followed:
1) UGA (Better Quality Wins)
2) Bama (Because they are Bama)
3) Miami
4) Wisconsin
Why? Because the Miami and Wisconsin teams will work their way out. If Miami loses they will drop like a stone and so will Wisconsin. This thing has seen teams jump 3 spots. It's so early they have no real reason to move undefeateds out of the top.
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Thanks, this was super helpful. OSU at 16 seems about as far back as you can realistically start and still have a shot at the playoff, but this is college football. I think we will slot in at 12 tonight with a shot to bump up to #8 or so if we can put the Hurricanes in their place.
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Comments
1. Georgia
2. Bama
3. Ohio State
4. Notre Dame
Wisconsin hasn't played any tough teams. Ohio State looked great on Saturday. Notre Dame also has some quality wins. Too bad NC State couldn't take them out last Saturday. Top 4 will change!!! I predict only 2 of these teams actually make it to playoff.
1. Alabama: Is there anything to discuss here?
2. VT: Well, duh
3. Miami: Because they're back
4. Penn St.: Because nothing says you've earned a spot in the CFB Playoffs quite like not making it to your conference championship game (see OSU 2016).
I think we stay right around where we are now. Might move past Washington, but I fear the committee likes teams like Iowa State (even with the 2 losses). As for the top 4, Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and a toss up between Wisconsin and ND.
What I think will be chosen today:
1) Bama
2) Georgia
3) OSU
4) ND
My top 4 so far:
1) Georgia
2) Bama
3) ND
4) Oklahoma
Disclaimer:
anyone that places Wisconsin near the top or Stanford in any conversation may be subject to irrationally angry protest
EDIT: also we are in "round 4" tonight inbetween 10-13
I agree with you on Wisconsin... they have one of the easiest schedules and the only game that would look semi-good would be a win against Michigan, which it doesn't look like that will be an impressive win now anyways. I still feel like they will be in the first top 4 at least until some other blockbuster games are played. And of course the conference championship if they make it.
I think VT might shuffle a spot or 2 in either direction, no higher than 11 , no lower than 15.
1. Bama
2. UGA
3. Wisci
4. Oklahoma
Can't see how you can put OSU up in front of OU after they lost at home to them. That doesn't make any sense, despite the proclivity for a recency effect on polls (if you lose, you have to drop, if you win you have to rise). PSU win was a great comeback, but hardly a dominant victory that would put OSU clearly up there. They scrambled and fought for a close win.
I don't think Wisci truly deserves a top stop, but if you are undefeated in a power 5, you should get that consideration until you lose, and they still have OSU or someone else in the title game.
I hope the voters are really high on Miami and give them strong consideration, we could really use the sligshot-and-replace effect when we beat them, especially if our loss is to a team ahead of us inside the top 10.
I don't think Wisconsin deserves a top spot either, but the whole point of the committee is to weigh the merits of being undefeated but against relative nobodies vs having one loss to a great team while playing a tougher schedule (e.g. Notruh Dahm)
What do I think it will be?
1 - Bama
2 - Georgia
3 - Ohio State
4 - Notre Dame
Outside of those?
5 - Penn St
6 - Wisconsin
7 - Clemson
8 - Miami
9 - Iowa State
10 - Oklahoma
11 - TCU
12 - Virginia Tech
13 - Oklahoma St
14 - Washington
15 - UCF
16 - Auburn
Iowa State that high? I know they have some of the best wins, but their losses aren't exactly great.
Losses
Keep em out of the conversation until three conferences are down to only 2 loss teams
I mean you can't discount them when you're talking about putting a 2-loss team ahead of a lot of 1-loss teams
Longhorns 17, Cyclones 7.
Might as well include Michigan State in the discussion while we're at it (lost to Northwestern).
I say the wins they have will bump them to Top 10.... but the committee will keep that as their ceiling unless others start falling around them. Same situation with Wisconsin, where that #6 is the highest they'll go unless they win the B1G.
I agree.. but Iowa State is pretty much a new team. Their old QB is gone (which he started for those two losses) and the backup seems to have proven himself so far. Also a side not.. they lost to Texas, who almost beat OU and OKST, and they also lost to Iowa, which is a team that can beat just about anyone given the right conditions. I don't believe in the hype, but just giving a different perspective.
Plus.... bumping up Iowa St as the token WTF Top 10 team causes people to talk about the otherwise meaningless 1st Playoff Poll. And as we all know, the committee loves drumming up controversy for the sake of controversy.
1 - Bama (No brainer)
2 - UGA
3 - ND
4 - Ohio State
5 - Clemson
I'm with this one
I think we'll stay where we are, maybe move +/- a spot.
1. Bama
2. UGA
3. OSU
4. Noter Dame
First two out Penn State & Wisconsin
Before people lose their minds at how Big Ten heavy this is, the poll is going to get dicey. I don't know how the comittee votes, but these look like the 4 best teams right now. Penn St. jumps Clemson for quality of loss and Wisconsin gets the nod because even if your schedule is weak you show up and do your job and stay undefeated that counts for something.
I think it ends up being:
1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Notre Dame
4. OSU
With Oklahoma and Clemson on the outside looking in. OSU at #4 for ridiculous reasons that the committee won't be able to explain. I think it's stupid that everyone talked like Penn State was overrated because they haven't beaten anyone and we would learn about them against OSU. Then OSU squeaks out a win (at home) and we treat OSU like they're playoff worth despite a pitiful showing at home against OU. So it's like: okay is OSU good because they actually beat a great PSU team? Because before that everyone acted like PSU was overrated. Hopefully that makes sense.
I don't care where we're ranked. I just want to beat Miami.
PSU is not overrated, and I hate to say that, but its the truth. There team is legit.
I absolutely agree. But it seemed like everyone was ready to write them off with a loss to OSU as an overrated team. So did OSU beat a legit team or an overrated team?
Depends who's making the argument, and at what time.
Can someone tell me how Oklahoma is not ranked ahead of OSU?! Did I watch a different game than everyone else?
Because they lost later in the year then OSU did.
Things that don't matter to the committee, based on history:
1) Head-to-head results
2) OOC schedules
3) Winning your conference
4) Crappy losses at home
Things that matter:
1) Being Ohio State
I know that's at least partially TIC, but H2H and winning your conference does matter, in the case that teams are otherwise tied. Last year was pretty clear cut in that there were exactly four Power 5 teams with either 0 or 1 loss.
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Notre Dame
4. Ohio State
5. Clemson
6. Wisconsin
7. Penn State
8. Oklahoma
9. Miami
10. TCU
11. Oklahoma State
12. VT
Notre Dame has the best 1-loss record. Wisconsin's SOS sucks, as does Miami's. Clemson and Ohio State are playing better than Oklahoma. I would put Penn State 6th but it's hard to keep them ahead of Wisconsin at this point, maybe after a week or two they jump.
1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Notre Dame
4. Clemson
We'll slot in at 12th.
edit: nailed the top 4.
For the initial rankings, I predict:
1- Alabama
2- Georgia
3- Notre Dame
4- Clemson
These are mine too. I'm done giving Ohio State the benefit of the doubt after last year's fiasco.
1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Notre Dame
4. Oklahoma
The only correct answer if you're not going by eye test BS or what they've done before this year or what you think they'll do in the future. Wisconsin, Ohio State, Clemson, and Penn State are the next 4 in that order.
I could actually see them ranking them as followed:
1) UGA (Better Quality Wins)
2) Bama (Because they are Bama)
3) Miami
4) Wisconsin
Why? Because the Miami and Wisconsin teams will work their way out. If Miami loses they will drop like a stone and so will Wisconsin. This thing has seen teams jump 3 spots. It's so early they have no real reason to move undefeateds out of the top.
1. Virginia Tech
2. Virginia Tech
3. Virginia Tech
4. Virginia Tech
So, if I've got this right, then VT ends up 3-3 in the CFPlayoffs. 0.500 isn't horrible...
It would certainly boost our record vs. top 5 teams all time
via GIPHY
What it should be:
1 Georgia
2 Bama
3 Oklahoma
4 Clemson
5 Notre Dame
6 Oklahoma State
7 Washington
8 Miami
9 Wisconsin
10 Ohio State
What it likely will be:
1 Bama
2 Georgia
3 OSU
4 PSU
Why? because the committee is obsessed with the BIG and OSU in general.
My top 10, as of this morning:
1. Georgia
2. Bama
3. Notre Dame
4. Ohio State
5. Clemson
6. Penn State
7. TCU
8. Oklahoma
9. UCF
10. Wisconsin
don't care
one thing that will help us: Loss to Clemson was early enough. We should be right around 11 tonight
Beat Miami next week and we go to 7; NC ST Win this weekend puts them around the same ball park
Right now my top 4 is:
Alabama
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Georgia
FWIW, here are the 4 teams that have made the CFP each season, along with their spot in the first CFP rankings that season:
2014
1 - Alabama (6)
2 - Oregon (5)
3 - Florida State (2)
4 - Ohio State (16)
2015
1 - Clemson (1)
2 - Alabama (4)
3 - Michigan State (7)
4 - Oklahoma (15)
2016
1 - Alabama (1)
2 - Clemson (2)
3 - Ohio State (6)
4 - Washington (5)
Thanks, this was super helpful. OSU at 16 seems about as far back as you can realistically start and still have a shot at the playoff, but this is college football. I think we will slot in at 12 tonight with a shot to bump up to #8 or so if we can put the Hurricanes in their place.
#13