Virginia Tech is in the same spot as all the other polls. Miami is #10 which opens the door for a big jump if the Hokies win on Saturday night.
Discuss.
Just like I predicted today...
1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Notre Dame
4. Clemson
Full top 25:
First Rankings: Top 2️⃣5️⃣ pic.twitter.com/2nefOfDhyV— CFBPlayoff (@CFBPlayoff) October 31, 2017
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Comments
I was hoping Miami would be a little higher so we'd have more to gain by beating them. But I think #10 is about where they belong.
Yup. They got Miami AND Wisconsin right. Neither of those teams deserve to be higher.
Alabama at #2...
Georgia ain't played nobody PAAWWWWWWWWWL
You know who REALLY ain't played nobody?
Alabama.
Alabama wimps out when making schedules. 1 P5 neutral site game, 2 G5 games, and an FCS game. They can't be bothered to visit any other college stadium outside the SEC, and I'm sure they would find a way around that if they could.
At least right off the bat, I know that Georgia has Notre Dame and GT on their schedule, which automatically makes their OOC schedule stronger.
And they can't even use the "SEC gauntlet" excuse anymore. To date, Texas A&M (5-3 overall) is the only conference foe they've faced that currently has a winning record.
You could say they have a backloaded schedule, but Mississippi State and LSU aren't much to write home about either despite being 6-2..
Yeah, closing out the season against:
#19 LSU
#16 MSST
#14 Auburn
is a cakewalk. It's only 3 top 20 programs in 4 weeks. Also, had Alabama not killed FSU's starting QB, they'd probably still be in the top-8.
Francois does not turn FSU from 2-5 to 6-1. He's not that good of a quarterback. FSU has problems that aren't related to the QB position.
While true, FSU was a top 5 team to start the year. It's not like they scheduled Rutgers, they just ended up playing a team at the level of Rutgers.
Just goes to show how wrong the preseason polls can be. It's not their schedule that has them 2-5. It's the fact that they've played like crap. They were supposed to have an elite D with only Bama and Clemson having comparable. Right now their D sits at #31 in Total D and #48 in Scoring D. Their OL is an absolute sieve that got 1 QB hurt and the other is running for his life every game.
FSU at #5 was the biggest joke since the top 5 Mich team that lost to App St, in their opener and then fell off the map, several years ago.
Sure but that's not my point. Sometimes you schedule terrible teams knowing they're terrible and it's your fault for having a crappy OOC schedule. Sometimes you put together a schedule with a good team and the good team just falls apart and there's nothing you can do about it.
My brain must not be fully warmed up this morning, because I don't see how that line of thought addresses the comment that Franscois doesn't turn FSU from 2-5 to 6-1 (since FSU has bigger issues than QB).
I'm not sure scheduling FSU on opening day weekend exactly constitutes "wimping out", regardless of whether or not FSU has deep problems beyond their qb.
Edit: put this in the wrong spot
Dude there's no reason to even talk to those people about it. They just hate Alabama. We had this same argument last year and when you actually look at the schedules they have played a lot of top P5 teams OOC. Also, scheduling is a dumb thing to argue about too much because they have to be made so far in advance (most of the time) that you can't really predict how great it will be for your schedule that far out. Additionally, the only games that usually can get scheduled on short notice are the neutral site games which are being hosted by big money sponsors. Alabama accepting to play top teams in opening season neutral site games =/= wimping out on schedules.
No, but them following that up with 2 G5 home games and a FCS game is wimping out, using the bare minimum of scheduling. And they have done that for at least six years now. The last two times they had a true road OOC game was back in 2010-2011 against Duke and Penn State.
Of course you don't know how good a team is going to be in advance, but that argument works just as well in conference as out of conference, so let's not even begin to hide behind the "SEC gauntlet" argument.
from 2005-2015 the SEC gauntlet was real, and they still are by far the conference most filled with top recruiting talent. The coaching and QB play has been seriously lacking this season and last, and as a result they've had a noticeable slide, but of course there is no way Alabama or anyone else could have predicted the SEC being down. All that to say, I don't think they are "hiding behind the SEC gauntlet" because they aren't saying that, and there is no way they could predict the SEC would be down outside of the natural cyclical nature of college football. I think you just went too hard on your hot take, simple as that. They still schedule tougher than the majority of P5 teams.
That's flat out wrong. I've been looking at the schedules for all of the teams the last few years. Granted, I'm still working on adjusting the 4 OOC conferences with the 3 OOC conferences. But Alabama and most of the SEC is actually among the bottom of scheduling.
If you want tough schedules, look at Texas, USC, and Stanford. In six years, they all scheduled at least 9 P5 teams, and that's with only 3 OOC spots per year to work with.
We did the same exact thing this year.
But we haven't consistently done that. Over the last six years, we've had 9 P5 games (mostly skewed towards away and neutral games), and 9 G5 games. Looking ahead, we've got a decent mix especially in the early 2020s with 2 or 3 P5 teams on the OOC schedule.
Yeah we definitely do a better job of home and home series. Just saying we can't use that against Bama this year.
I'm missing something. Who said "wimping out"? Rocco responded to a comment that said Franscois wouldn't make this FSU team 6-1, instead of their current 2-5.
edit: never mind, I see where that came from. Not sure how responses to that comment ended up in this subthread.
The edit where he said he posted in the wrong spot.
He's replying to my comment about Alabama wimping out in the scheduling department.
SORRY GUYS I MESSED UP
I disagree. If you watched that game FSU was in the game and competed well until they lost there QB. They have since fallen apart but I think that is more let down than not being talented. Sometimes things go south and you just can't turn it around. FSU was not better than Bama but before the QB went down I had no problem saying that they were #2.......
They were ranked pre-season as a top 5 team. That does not make them a top 5 team. Their OL is terrible, their secondary is playing very poorly. As stated above, their QB situation does not fix all of the other issues which they are dealing with.
I think Francois does turn them from a 2-5 team to a 5-2 team. Every game except for Bama and BC has been a one score game. Starting QB vs. back up can definitely be 1 TD/game swing.
Yeah I also think the team lacks confidence with Blackmon at QB, and understandably so. You can play with a lot more trust and swagger when your starting QB Francois (who by all accounts was poised for a huge year) is leading the offense. I think the team collapsed after their goals were out of reach. I don't think FSU would have continued to be top 5, but I do think their record would be vastly different at 5-2 or even 6-1 with Francois as opposed to true freshman, 165 lb QB Blackmon.
They've lost three of their five by less than a touchdown. I guarantee you Francois makes them 5-2 at a minimum and I'm also betting that a 5-1 FSU rolls into BC with a lot more confidence.
And THOSE three schools' best wins are against each other, thus upholding the perception that that division is the only one in CFB that gets credit for canceling itself out.
Also, Francois wouldn't have been in position to stop Boston College from hanging 35 on Florida State.
With UGA likely waiting for them in the SECCG.
So 2 or 3 teams each year in the initial top 4 have failed to make it to the actual playoff. Who's gonna choke down the stretch?
Alabama/Georgia loser and Clemson in the ACCCG
Notre Dame has a really tough schedule left over. No chance they make it out unscathed.
Is it?
WF is solid but ND should handle them
I think they spank Miami
Navy will be tough but I see ND winning
Stanford. They are tough and have a great RB but their QB is average.
I think ND gets through these games fairly easily
ND is really good, but they are getting some lucky breaks in their ACC slate.
NC State lost their most dynamic player on offense and special teams when Nyheim Hines got injured in the first quarter. NC State may have been able to keep up on the scoreboard with him in the game.
Now they go up against WF who just lost their best weapon, Greg Dortch, for the season. Dortch scored 4 touchdowns last week alone and ND's secondary is a weakness.
I understand all of that.
My point is that the rest of their schedule is not that daunting and they should win all of those games.
I wasn't disagreeing with you. I think you are right. Just wanted to add that ND seems to have bit of good luck working in their favor to help them win out.
I can definitely see your reasoning, but I think Miami gets pissed after we beat them and takes it out on ND. Which I believe will equate to a 4 point victory for Miami (Thanks for the double boost, Canes.)
Yes, I really do think it will happen that way. Not just being a "homer". I honestly think Miami is overrated and we are definitely a sleeper team.
Miami is overrated and that's why they will lose to ND. Notre Dame has played a legit schedule this year and is still sitting at just one loss and that to a CFP contender UGa by one point. Miami has played what has turned out to be a very weak schedule and has eeked out wins. We will beat Miami and it might not even be close. No amount of their "being pissed" is going to change the fact that ND will run the score up on them to try to justify getting picked for the CFP.
Bama starting as #2 is probably the worst thing that could happen to the rest of the SEC.
How many times has Saban said that being 1 is "poison" to a team, to motivate them. They are going to start beating people by 50+ now.
All told, I think the committee did a really good job with the initial rankings:
UGA as #1 is not really controversial to me. They have at least 1 win better than any of Bama's
ND has played a pretty good schedule
OK over OSU, both as 1 loss teams is definitely righ tin my mind, seeing as how the Sooners stomped all over the Buckeyes on their own field, and Iowa St. is turning out to be a pretty decent squad.
Wisky and Miami ranked where they should be given their actual play.
They've been beating people by 50. Now they're going to start beating people by 60.
I think this is good for us. These rankings seem pretty fair and based on actual resume and not common perceptions of programs (there's no objective reason to have Alabama at #1 or Ohio State above Oklahoma except for their past success), so I think if we beat a top ten Miami team it will give us a pretty significant boost next week and set up well for a path to the playoff if we can just take care of business on our own end.
I definitely agree. Obviously we still have to be nervous with the wonkiness of ND, two SEC teams, and the other P5 conference champs at the end of all of this, but if Clemson stays in the top 4, we'll get to take our shot in Charlotte and have the best case for the playoffs. I assume top 4 will change, but as it is, having our conference championship opponent up there (with ND having no championship and the two SEC teams fighting for theirs) gives us the best case for a spot when we go 1-0 vs clemson.
Obviously a lot has to happen between now and then but winning your conference by avenging your only loss against a top 5 team seems like the kind of thing that would vault us above the other P5 conferences assuming their teams have 1 loss. Even if ND and both SEC teams make the playoff, I would definitely like our chances against anybody from the B1G, Big 12, or PAC 12 if that's how things played out.
My worry is that we play and beat NCSU in Charlotte if Clempson doesn't make it to the Queen City. No way we get in then. Not that I'd be upset with the season overall or anything but I can see us not making it if that happens even with a conference championship.
While I'm not surprised by these rankings, I have no idea how this would be characterized as good for us. We are literally the lowest ranked 1 loss P5 team. Miami is the lowest ranked undefeated P5 team (behind six 1 loss teams in fact), which means the committee isn't sold on Miami and VT shouldn't expect as much credit if we defeat them. The only good news is Clemson checking in at #4 potentially provides an opportunity for a big win. Ultimately it's not worth overanalyzing at the moment and all we can do is let the season play out but I'd certainly prefer to be getting more respect than the 1 loss team that ESPN literally lined up cupcakes on the sideline to represent their out of conference schedule (Washington).
I think you can see into the future Henry
I really was hoping we would jump Washington....
I agree. I think we're deserving of 11th. Both Okie State and Washington have weaker schedules than ours.
But, I'm totally okay with where we are. Like Rece said during the show -- we could definitely be the sleeper team this year. We're right in that sweet spot.
I would say Okay State has had a tougher schedule than we have. Our second-best win is over 5-4 Boston College.
OSU's wins over Texas Tech and Texas are better than the rest of our wins.
I think that OK State has a similar schedule strength but there is no way Washington belongs ahead of us, the only reason being they started the season ranked high.
Really, the only thing our resume is missing is a win against a great team. We knock off Miami this weekend, that combined with the way we've been shelling everyone we play outside of our ranked matchups, and we should bump up real nicely to comfortably in the Top 10.
I think if we win we jump to #9. We'll jump Miami and the loser of Ok St v Ok, and then I think we jump Washington and Wisconsin. Don't think we jump TCU or anyone else without an upset in the top 8.
Not sure if we jump Wisconsin quite yet, but yeah if we beat Miami we're guaranteed to jump 2 spots. As much good as beating Miami will do us, the media has been clear they're not actually buying the Canes, so it won't exactly be a "signature win" as much as it could be.
With a win over Miami, I'd slot us 8th, just ahead of TCU. At that point, we both would have beaten WVU (TCU at home, us in a neutral site), and would both have wins over (at the time) Top 10 teams on the road with Okie St for TCU, and Miami for us. We also both tend to soundly beat the lesser opponents, albeit with VT clamping down more defensively than TCU tends to do. What would separate us would be the loss, with ours coming against a Clemson team that is currently in the Top 4, and theirs coming against Iowa St, who is currently ranked below us. We'd have the better overall resume.
Of course, this would correct itself a week later when TCU and Oklahoma face off, with that winner jumping us... but its something.
Alabama will crush Georgia in the SEC title game. I am not sold on Notre Dame at all.
Have you even watched Georgia or Notre Dame play? If so, I'd love to hear your reasoning for both of the above points. Because from what I've seen, you're flat wrong. Both are complete teams, well deserving of the CFP.
THEY AINT SEEN ALABAMA FOOTBALL THOUGH PAAAWWWWWLLLLLL
I know you say it as a joke, but there's a serious point in here. Between the way Alabama structures their schedule and the TV rights, Alabama makes a big splash in week 1, and then almost disappears until November.
First of all, the TV deals. While CBS doesn't have the exclusive on the 3:30 timeslot anymore thanks to the SEC Network, ESPN probably still tries to avoid putting too many SEC games there, just to keep CBS happy. But since ABC can't have any of the SEC games, most of them end up on ESPN or ESPN2 in primetime by default.
Week 1 - They play FSU, and get the ABC Saturday Night game, the only time they are eligible to do so, because it's a neutral site game.
Week 2 and 3 - they play G5 teams, and because they are Alabama, they at least get on ESPN2, one at 3:30 and one in primetime. There's not completely buried on the schedule, but they're at least third priority in either timeslot.
Week 4 - they get the CBS game, against Vanderbilt. Really, that's the "best game from the best conference"? A guaranteed beat down? Of course no one cares to watch that.
Week 5-7 - the mediocre stretch of their SEC "gauntlet" with Ole Miss, aTm, and Arkansas. By default, these get the ESPN primetime slot. Meanwhile, most folks are probably more interested in the games on ABC or even FOX.
Week 8 - Tennessee on CBS. This was just CBS checking their list of annual rivalry games that they always air, regardless of how the teams are actually doing. Again, another one sided beat down.
Week 9 - the usual bye week before LSU.
We get to November, and they get LSU in primetime on CBS, and they'll end the month against Auburn in a good timeslot. Although, the other two games are likely to be the elusive Alabama nooners.
Oh and don't forget that LSU game will end with a score of 7-3.
In a related story, I'm beyond hyped to listen to Finebaum's show tomorrow for all the toothless Walmart fans that call in to bitch about how Bama should be number one because they waxed an overhyped Vanderbilt.
Why is this a thing?
I shop Walmart all the time, and I assure you, I have all but my wisdom teeth, and I don't root for 'bama.
I'd hazard a guess that most Walmart shoppers likely root for their local teams or the schools they went to.
But the toothless ones root for Bama.
Or WVU.
The Walmart Wolverine is all too true in the Superior State.
Walmart Wolverine
thats hilarious.
Because of where I live, I due probably 80% of my in person shopping at wal-mart. I'm probably in the wal-mart 2-3 times a week because a) it's on my way home and b) I'm bad at planning ahead.
I have no problems with toothless wal-mart fan jokes.
I'm not shitting on people who shop at Walmart. When I say Walmart fan, I mean someone who has no affiliation with a school other than their local Walmart sells the gear. Toothless was specific to your average Bama fan.
I take it you haven't seen PeopleofWalmart.com before, huh?
ND isn't in a conference and can't win a conference championship, therefore they aren't 'deserving' of the CFP.
ND will end the season undefeated in ACC play. No ACC team can say that...
Lucky for them they don't have to play in the championship game, against a quality opponent, with CFP access on the line.
Neither did anOSU last year.
Exhibit A for #conferencechampionshipsmatter
Or oklahoma 2 years ago
Exhibit B. But at least OU was the conference champion in 2015.
By that same account, we're finishing this season undefeated in Big XII play.
ND only plays 6 ACC games. If you win the ACC, you play 9, 50% more games in this conference than ND. Screw em.
ND plays 5 ACC games.
So winning the ACC has you playing almost double of ND's schedule.
When we're playing Big12 teams more often than actual members of the Big12, you might have a point. Until then,
You mean, like how we play ND more often than ACC schools from the other division over the next 10 years http://www.hokiesports.com/football/schedule/future/
yes, that's the point. ND plays 60 ACC games in the next 12 seasons. They play each team 4 times in that time span. There are six ACC teams that we only play 2 times each in the same span. It means something for ND to sweep their ACC schedule because they play 42% of their games against ACC teams each year. Even an ACC school only does 66% (unless they schedule an OOC meeting against another ACC team). Comparing that to our single game against a Big12 team is just stupid.
Yes, ND is not in a conference, but when you play most of a P5 conference slate and fill in the rest with other respectable P5 teams, you shouldn't get dinged for it. Especially in a year where they didn't even schedule an FCS team (5 ACC, 1 SEC, 2 PAC16, 1 B1G, 2 AAC, 1 MAC).
So... because ND plays 60 games in the ACC over the next 12 years, they deserve the same amount of respect for running the table as an ACC school who plays 108 ACC games over that same span (120 if they win all 12 divisional titles)? Because they play each school 4x over 12 years, they deserve the same amount of respect as the schools who play each other 12x over those 12 years?
I'm not seeing it, sorry. There's something to be said for being in a conference where you play the same schools every single year to the point where you intimately learn each other well enough to exploit weaknesses. They don't have to deal with that in this conference. Each time they play someone, that other team has to learn how to play ND. The same cannot be said for Miami-FSU, Clemson-FSU, VT-Miami, VT-GT, etc, and this is why I'll always value a team that can finish a year with 1, and even in some cases 2 losses against the better teams in their conference over an undefeated ND.
Pretty sure you could be describing our "series" with Clemson, FSU, Louisville, NCSU, Syracuse, and Wake Forest. You are acting like every game ND plays is a one off just like our OOC games (except ECU, obviously). It's patently not true. Just with ACC teams, they play with more regularity than we play 6 of our in conference opponents. Besides that, they play teams like Navy, USC, and Stanford regularly enough to meet your criteria. The only difference is those teams are spread across 3 conferences. So the hell what?
I'm not saying we should always get on our knees for ND like ESPN wants us to. If they go undefeated through a weak schedule, then let I'll be the first to rail on them for it. I'm saying that this is not the year to do it. They played a good schedule and have, so far, come through unscathed save a 1 point loss to the team sitting atop the CFP standings.
Each ACC program plays 7 other schools annually, the 6 in their division, and their cross-divisional rival. I'm absolutely not going to accept an argument that ND's ACC scheduling is on par with anyone else in this conference because of that extra rotating opponent on our conference slate.
And no, I don't value their series with Navy, USC, and Stanford the same as a conference slate, because those games don't carry the same weight a conference matchup carries. The conference slate is a group stage that sets the table for postseason seeding that ND has actively avoided for their entire history. Their schedule gives them an inherent advantage that others don't have. They can afford to lose one game and it doesn't have major ramifications to the rest of their year like Miami losing to VT this weekend would present.
Until ND is in a conference and playing conference championship games, they should not receive any benefit of the doubt. In fact, I'd be in favor of a system that actively punishes them until they join one.
You know what, you're totally right. Let's give the trophy to the best conference champion and not try to create a field of the four best teams so they can earn the title of champion.
I would rather see four 12-1 conference champions play in a playoff than 3 12-1 and an 11-1 ND because they don't play in a conference championship.
Debating the merits of ND's schedule is subjective and anecdotal... winning a CCG is objective and definitive. The special privileges for ND need to end.
EDIT: If you like subjective and anecdotal, there are five "P5" conferences that should be eligible to send their champions to the playoffs. You can apply subjective and anecdotal to which conference champion gets left out of the four available slots.
Yes I have seen them play.
The sample size is small, but so far, #'s 1, 2, 5, 6, and 16/17. from the initial have made it. I expect one of the 1/2/14 group to make it. ND at 3 probably makes it, their remaining schedule isn't easy, but it isn't demonstrably harder than Miami/GT/Clemson either. I expect Oklahoma makes it, and probably Ohio State, because if they win out (they should), they'll likely get the "BIG" boost again, and leap the ACC champ. F**k ND and OSU if that happens.
I won't feel good about the ACC getting a team in the playoff until UGA gets a non-alabama loss and notre lame get another loss.
I think it could happen, especially if we avenge our only loss in Charlotte, but BAMA ND UGA OSU feels like the most likely to me right now.
The committee has to know that if both participants of the SEC title game and Notre Dame make the CFP, thereby locking out three conferences, they will be unleashing a shitstorm that would make the 2011 national title uproar pale in comparison.
If we're out of it, I hope this happens for that shitstorm reason alone. The absolute worst thing the committee could do right now is have a season in which 3 of the 5 power conferences are royally pissed off going into the bowl season because of the playoff. 2 SEC teams and ND would do that, and I think would bring about some very necessary changes to this whole process.
I feel like 2 SEC teams getting in, right now, is a strong possibility...but it would go against the Boards whole thing of "conference championships matter"
Hopefully things settle themselves out here in the next few weeks.
No it wouldn't. Just because something matters doesn't mean other things don't matter as well. Championships matter. So do quality wins, and strength of schedule, and a host of other factors.
best bet, as it stands right now, of getting an ACC team in is Clemson winning out.
If Clemson and VT or Miami win out until the ACC Championship game, you'll be guaranteed to have a matchup of, at worst, 2 1-loss Top 10 teams (Clemson around 3 or 4, Miami around 4 or 5, and VT around 6 or 7). If that game doesn't automatically send the winner to the playoff, the system is critically broken.
Not really. If ND wins out they are in. That means that at least 2 P5 conferences are left out. So lets say Bama wins out and are in as well. Then OSU wins out and are in. That leaves ACC/Pac12/Big12 fighting for a final spot. Big12 could easily have a top10 matchup as well. Pac12 seems weaker overall for sure, but to say that the ACC not getting a team is critically broken is either misinformed or critically biased.
This is the point where last season i started dreaming of the cfp and we lost to gt and syracuse. Hopefully the team can stay focused on going 1-0 and letting everything else fall in place.
I know this is crazy, but it feels like when I look ahead the team looks ahead. Therefore the only solution is for me to put all my focus on beating miami!
We believe in you!
I wonder if this is the reason Coach Fu preaches "1-0 this week"
Memphis at 23 shows the the quality of player that Fuente brought to that program
Division Leaders
Virginia Tech
#9 Total Defense
#32 Total Offense
Miami
#52 Total Defense (Just saying...Miami OH #37, lol)
#24 Total Offense
Clemson
Total Offense #33
Total Defense #7
NC State
Total Defense #59
Total Offense #40
I love how close we currently rank with Clemson.
We're #2 nationally in scoring defense, tucked between Alabama (#1) and Georgia (#3).
Hate to be a party pooper, but the schedule differences are glaring between us and Clemson when looking at these numbers.
At this point in the year, are they really that glaring? Auburn is a solid team because of their defense, their offense is mediocre. Our offense is above average but Louisville isn't a good team this year, Wake, GT, BC aren't world beaters (Lamar can only do so much with that O-Line and no skill player help). I would agree that their defense is tops in the nation but they haven't played an elite overall offense yet this year. VT has played one elite offense in WVU and one above avg. Clemson O. We played ok against both and then dominated all the other average and below average teams like Clemson's D.
No, Clemson's wins over Wake, GT, and Louisville aren't amazing. But they all have winning records, as does BC. That gives Clemson 6 wins over teams with winning records, while we only have 2, and neither are ranked.
Not saying our numbers are inflated, but Clemson having played tougher competition has justified their numbers.
The Miami defensive ranking was brought up on 2 Deep this morning and an interesting thought was posed (can't remember if Robbie, Pete or Joe brought it up). While results speak for themselves, Miami is way more talented on defense than their stats indicate. Hopefully they continue to underachieve, but they also have a history of playing up or down to competition. Just some food for thought.... also, check out the podcast if you haven't already. It's always a great discussion each week in conjunction with the written material here!
From an ESPN article explaining the rankings:
No mention of that 13th ranked team they play this weekend that they are underdogs to...good work ESPN
Exactly. Seems like everything I read about Miami is they point straight to the matchup against ND. We are getting seriously overlooked on a national level. I hope Fuente uses this as bulletin board material
I also hope Miami is looking forward to Notre Dame, and overlooking us...then we creep in and punch them in the mouth.
...and then the 'looking ahead' works and they beat ND.
Chyea ain't they the 'dawgs in this weekend's game or something?
Things to root for (IF we can run the table)
1. Notre Dame needs to lose--preferably to an ACC team like Miami.
2. Michigan needs to beat either Penn State or anOSU [EDIT: PSU already destroyed UM--thank you for the correction], and whoever comes out of the Big Ten east needs to beat Wisconsin in the championship game. Check out UW's remaining schedule. It is beyond pitiful. Keep in mind, the best B1G non-conference win is still Indiana over LOLUVA.
3. The Big12 might be a problem. OK stills plays TCU and OkState. And there is a championship game. We need all of these teams to come out with 2 losses...
4. Not really worried about Washington. If we win out, our resume beats anything out of the PAC12.
5. Almost forgot--we need Clemson to keep winning so that the ACC championship is a de facto play-in game.
Bonus: Georgia Tech beats Georgia :)
Double bonus, Georgia loses that regular season final game to a team that lost their first game to a team they themselves beat 41-0.
Penn St. already beat Michigan.... But we can still pull for Michigan to beat anOSU.
Thanks for the correction!
If ND wins out how would their playoff ranking be impacted by not playing in the ACCCG?
Not very much at all considering they set a precedent last year that you don't need to win a conference.
Only if your name is anOSU, ND, Bama, USC (the real one), LSU, Michigan or Texas (or possibly FSU).
All we have to do is win out and we should be in. Speaking as someone who lives in Florida, I REALLY hope that starts by beating Miami this weekend! Being surrounded by Seminoles, Gators and Canes is nauseating but us beating Miami and watching FSU and UF implode can be fun!
I don't think its that easy.
Let's just see where we would end up week-by-week worst case scenario (no upsets):
Currently 13th
Beat Miami - 11th (jump Miami and OU/OSU)
Beat GT - 9th (jump OU/TCU and Wash based on SOS)
Beat Pitt - 9th
Beat UVA - 9th
Heading into championship games we have the following top 10:
SEC (2) - Bama & UGA
ACC (2) - Clem/NCSU & VT
BigTen (3) - OSU, PSU, Wisc
Big12 (1) - OU/OSU/TCU
IND (1) - ND
PAC12 (1) - Wash
Beat Clem/NCSU - 7th (Jump Clem and BigTen loser)
ND and OSU are the biggest concerns... we really need both of them to pick up another loss.
I think OSU is practically in right now. It's the Big 12 we want to lose. A 2-loss conference champ out of there gives us the shot we need to give us a chance to be the 3rd or 4th team.
And this right here is where we run into a problem with the path we're heading down this year. Unless UGa or Bama stumbles before the SECCG, there is going to be a massive push to get both in because "wah, its sooooo unfair to have them both in the same conference". Then you realize you're also staring down the possibility of ND finishing this run they're on with a remaining schedule that... isn't exactly a murderer's row....
We could be in a spot where, unless some major upsets happen, the playoff field is already set for 3 of the 4 teams, with the remaining team being reserved for the best of champions of the B1G, ACC, P12, and B12, and a national playoff field that only invites in 2 of the Power 5 Conference Champions. If and when that happens, the sports world will melt down and, much like the SEC CG rematch in the BCS title game set in motion the eventual plans for the playoff, it would spurn a playoff expansion.
This playoff doesn't survive long if you have a combo deal of ND and 2 teams from the same conference. It doesn't survive if you only find 2 conference champions worthy of playing for a title.
... which would essentially bring us right back to the BCS.
I actually think it's a best case scenario if Georgia faces Bama in the SECCG and both are undefeated. I think that all but ensures that only one will make the playoff.
Or if one picks up a loss along the way and then loses the SEC championship to the other.
A 1 loss UGA being left out who plays Bama close and won at ND (with ND getting in)? Tough for me to see that happening. Equally hard would be Bama with a close loss to UGA not getting the benefit of the doubt to make the playoff given their track record.
If Bama enters the SECCG at #2 and loses, I can't imagine the committee keeping them at #4 or higher. A team who lost their last game, isn't a conference champion, and wasn't even #1 throughout the CFP rankings shouldn't be in.
I see conference championship games as elimination games... lose the CG and you're out. unfortunately last year PSU won and was still out and OSU getting blown out was poetic justice. Hopefully the committee learned a lesson there.
I mean you can see it however you want but there is plenty of evidence suggesting that's not exactly the case. During the BCS era when we only got the top 2 teams we had Nebraska in 2001 who didn't win their division, Oklahoma in 2003 who got blown out in their conference title game, and Alabama in 2011 who didn't win their division. Last year we had Ohio State not win their division and get in the playoff as well. So yeah, I feel pretty confident there will be more occurrences of non-conference champions making the playoff.
2003 Oklahoma is really the only one that applies here and they only got in because of the computers. The rest of them all avoided the CCG altogether. There's a big difference between losing the conference championship and losing early in the year and just not playing in that game as a result despite being hot down the stretch.
The committee has placed as big an emphasis on when you lose as anything else and losing your last and most important game before bowl season is probably a good way to get left out.
None of those teams I listed lost particularly early actually. Nebraska lost their last game of the regular season, Alabama lost in November, and Ohio State lost in late October and barely won in 3 of their final 5 games.
I feel your pain. I hate living in South Florida when the U is "Bak!" Getting to laugh at FSU and UF is great though...
Hello, fellow Hokie faithful. Long time stalker, first time poster (damn it feels good to finally contribute to this madness). Anyway, I'd like to know your thoughts of this scenario: Tech and Clemson both win out respective regular seasons, and Tech defeats Clemson in the ACCCG. Both schools only loss is to each other, with Clemson pulling off the more difficult feat by winning a true road game in Lane, and Tech winning at a neutral site. Clemson gets the nod based on this, despite Tech commanding the title of "Conference Champions".
Does anybody see any possibility in this scenario? Keep in mind the committee's potential for bias towards a larger/more marketable fanbase.
Clemson lost to Syracuse already so we would be seeded above them in that scenario given that they would have 2 losses. Also, late season losses tend to hurt a team much more than early season losses.
Right, totally forgot the loss to Syracuse. Damn I fumbled my first snap...
As much as this hurts me personally...
Clemson would have 2 losses in this scenario (VT and 'Cuse) so they would go with the 1-loss conference winner (VT).
Welcome to TKP.
Clemson already has a loss to Syracuse so this ain't happening this year. An ACCCG loser Clemson will be 11-2 in your scenario.
Nah. No title game loser is going to win a tiebreaker with the team that beat them in said title game. And Clemson would be a 2 loss team.
Did anybody mention that Clemson would be a two loss team? That's the kind of math they teach at Bethel High, which coincidentally is where Ricky Walker went to high school.
Clemson might be the only team in the T25 w a loss to a team with a losing record and they are #4, it's hilarious how much I've heard Clemson fans whine about being treated unfairly and now they are 100% benefitting from the same inherent "benefit of the doubt" and "mulligans" they have whined about my entire lifetime. But if we beat them in the ACCCG then we ultimately benefit from their overrated ranking.
If I'm trying to justify the committee's ranking, I'd point to their September where when beat Auburn at home (was a good team, still is a good team) and then went on the road and smacked Louisville and us at home. That BC win looks a bit better than it did before too.
I actually think Clemson's only really impressive win was against us. Louisville's defense has proven to be a true abomination and Auburn, a team whose offense is hot garbage when they can't run the ball, was playing without their best running back Kerryon Johnson in that Clemson game, which I don't think a lot of people know. They only had Pettway, their bruiser.
I think a team like Penn State, Oklahoma, or Ohio State, all of whom have good wins, and have only lost to other top teams have a better case. But it's not worth it to worry too much about these early rankings. They are meant to generate exactly this type of discussion.
Idk how anyone can say that anyone in the Big10 has better wins than Clemson. Who did PSU beat? Michigan?! Ohio State lost its only test out of conference, at home, and beat an inflated PSU team. Its a circle of overrated that plagues the B1G. Any one of them would get trashed by Clemson, Bama, or UGA. Not to mention Oklahoma already has.
Now I'm seeing Miami fans whine about the mulligan that Clemson's getting while no one is impressed with their W over Syracuse.
Big diff playing the cuse at home vs in their house of horrors (still doesn't excuse Clemson's loss nor our loss there last year).
Am I the only one who thinks Clemson is too high? Of course the higher they are, the better it would be for us if we face them in a rematch.
However, out the teams ranked immediately below them, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Penn State, and TCU all have "better losses" than Clemson.
I think the committee is looking at how Clemson lost. Their QB went out of the Syracuse game early hurt and they still almost pulled that game out. The other teams were at full strength and still lost. If Bryant doesn't get hurt, Clemson wins that game.
Well, I disagree, Clemson outside of their two big TD runs averaged about 1.1 ypc, exposing a serious lack of running game when they can't rely on Kelly Bryant's legs. Also, Syracuse had a touchdown wrongly called back on a terrible OPI call where Clemson scoop and scored on the next play, and play that never should have happened. Syracuse outplayed Clemson on both sides of the ball (showed in the scoreline and the stats) and exposed the back end of their defense which I have been saying since 2015. Venables coverages and db play are average at best, their corners are notorious for holding and PI and their defense gets exposed when they play teams who can throw the ball (2015 NC State, 2016 Pitt, 2017 Syracuse). Their incredible DL and front 7 mitigates a lot of these issues, particularly against teams who don't have strong passing offenses as it is (there are few in the ACC that do).
That could be true. But what about injuries that happened before the contest? Because the injury happened in the game itself -- does it make it that much more relevant?
For me, I'd definitely rank PSU above Clemson. Yeah, they lost -- but they were leading for almost the whole game (and it was at OSU).
If Clemson and Alabama do make it into the CFP -- I really hope the committee sets up Alabama and Clemson to play each other in the semi finals. Let that be the Game 3 tiebreaker and let's have a fresh final 2 matchup.
As much as it sucks to be ranked at #13 in the CFP rankings, I'm glad we are being over looked and underhyped so we can get at 'em! It also helps to rewatch and revisit this Coach Fu speech:
Time to make everything right in the world.
somebody please get Coach a thesaurus. He's gotta use a word other than "strain" because all I can think of is:
yay engineering school.
A well deserved leg
Personally I would rather get past this notion that being overlooked/underhyped is a good thing and be the one everyone expects to win, and we do so.
Not a knock on your post though dragone. We've played the underdog for the entire Beamer era, lets be the team everyone chases now.
None taken Fern. I miss the years we were relevant and respected, but, I know the correct course has been set by Whit, Coach Fu, Coach Foster and company. I know we belong and that we will be chased sooner rather than later. 🦃
truth
So now we take injuries into account for rankings, why not turnovers? why not who had a bad lunch?
Y'all remember what Yaba Dabo Do said after losing to Syracuse..."We're very disappointed, there's a lot of pain in our locker room," Swinney said after Syracuse's 27-24 win over Clemson. "But, listen, this is a story about a guy with a bum ankle and concussion. This ain't about Syarcuse. This is about an ankle sprain and concussion. They injured our best player, they cheated us." /s
Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin... COMBINED beat only 1 Power5 team out of conference (Pitt). Their inflated rankings are egregious. I'm glad the committee got it right with Oklahoma and Clemson above all of them. If we win out, we shouldn't have to worry about any of them.
Thank you. Please paste this all over the webs. The best non-conference B1G win remains UM over 3-4 Florida.
Not worried about any of this for the next four weeks. If we win out, I will care far more about the CFP.
Am I the only one here feeling we're getting a bit over zealous thinking about us being in the playoff picture, I don't think we're bad or anything it's just we've got A VERY LONG way to go before it's even a possibility in my mind maybe I'm too pessimistic here but until we prove we're top 10 material I'm not 100 percent sold. I think we should handle Miami this weekend but if they're overrated are we really that good ourselves?
Not trying to be negative here just playing devils advocate
Meh, it's a way outside chance and it's just fun to entertain the idea. But yes, you're right that we're getting ahead of ourselves. We had our chance to prove we belong and we blew it at home against Clemson. If all goes well, we'll have a chance to do better in the ACCCG, but we've lost the right to write our own ticket
I agree I am nervous about these next two weeks, which is the biggest "Uh ya think" on here, but it's true. I will be ready for a serious discussion if we get through these next two weeks undefeated. I still am not sure what to make of the team, especially when we talk CFP and season resumes come up where I look at our team and wonder if we can be a top ten team.
I'm more nervous about GT next week. I'm very excited about playing Miami, but GT scares me.