It seems like the snow totals are all over the place depending on where each weather service has its rain/snow line. If I'm in Annandale, should I be stocking up on bourbon tonight?
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YES.
You don't need the weather report to answer that question.
Snow is werid this year
In all seriousness though... here is the dude I trust. Justin Berk. He is more accurate then most, and he is a private contractor that is paid to make decisions for companies, school systems etc. He doesn't get hyped up for big amounts for views.
My Call For Snowfall
I labeled this with letters to give each zone a description below. The + is the upside potential. That depends on how much can stick on Wednesday during the day. I went lower out of caution.
A: 8 to 14+ inches. Mostly Snow! Elevation will help stickage
B: 4 to 8+ inches. (Tuesday part will be 1 to 3 inches) Mostly snow or mix, but melting during the day. Road issues after 6 PM Tuesday into Wednesday. Snow during the day will add up a little. + Upside potential depends on how much can stick during the day. Icing up overnight into Thursday morning.
C: 3 to 6+ inches. The ground will be warmer so it will take longer to get stickage. Most accumulation of this amount of snow will be before 10 AM Wednesday. Snow during the day will be tough to accumulate. If it sticks during the day, amounts will be high +. Icing up overnight into Thursday morning.
D: 2 to 5+ inches. There will be snow here Wednesday. It will snow most of the day, but battle the sun and warm influence from the Bay. More snow will fall than can stick. There will be icing up by Thursday morning.
E: Slushy coating to 3 inches. This area will get snow most of Wednesday but most will stick on the grass. Might get Wednesday evening snow and possible freezing of ground into Thursday morning.
https://justinweather.com/
Click that link. Totals have gone up. Get your bourbon and bread.
That map picked some weird ass cities to use. No Arlington, Alexandria, Annandale , Reston, or Fairfax..... but they gave us Dale City, Clinton, St. Charles, Golden Beach, and Lexington Park.
He's a Baltimore/York PA guy. Hence the focus on those cities.
I guess that makes sense, but just looking at the map, Alexandria seems closer and more relevant to Baltimore/Pa. than wherever Golden Beach is
Ugh, welcome to spring.
Yes. Actually:
Yes. And also soju, but yes.
Id say that map above is pretty spot on. dc will start with rain but transition to snow and nastyness. expect about 4" of snow. the further into the VA you get the higher your totals will get. Good ole winchester can be looking at 10ish inches.
itll start tuesday morning turning to snow wed morning and tuesday night. if you want more specifics lmk
Any thoughts on an early flight out of Dulles Thursday morning? Should I try to change and fly out of Charlotte? Driving up from Blacksburg Wednesday night is the plan right now.
mmmm thats cuttin it close what time tuesday? im no specialist on how quickly or early they shut down flights. but if its 8 or later id change to charolette
Thanks for the info.
Appreciate your reports. For the record, I'm a bit of a weather geek (no offense intended) and although I'm completely uneducated with regard to weather science, I do enjoy the knowledge you drop in your posts so feel free to keep some of that in your future endeavors.
Not Dulles but Reagan National is already offering to change Wed/Thurs flights with no change fee.
My wife just shifted her & the kids trip to FL to today.
Once the snow starts falling is there any chance we can get a Facebook Live weather update from Mark in Winchester??
I thought Kevin was in Winchester? Anyway he/ they are both getting hammered right now.
Now, when you say "hammered"....
Snow which leads to the other!
What about the NRV
mostly just rain maybe an inch of snow or 2 but nothing substantial
I'm so glad I no longer live somewhere where an inch or two of snow "is nothing substantial".
Yes, instead the threat of a flake of snow will have the schools closed for days. At least, here in Wake county that would be the case.
Wdbj 7 has the nrv as 3-5 with a possible 7 inches but I don't know whos word to take
Between channel 7 and eshiben, I'd stick with eshiben.
Oh man I Wanted more snow 😢😢
while I thank you, I love me some robin reed and respect that crew. It really comes down to how quickly and how much it cools and the transition speeds. its gonna be some pretty wet snow which will pile up easily once it starts but i just am not totally sold. Im feelin rain and I tend to trust my gut on these ones
Well to be fair I didn't trust you for the Duke game. All the weather services around here said it would be a super light rain, and you said it would be coming down pretty hard.
I wanted it to be light, so I believed the others.
Big mistake.
haha appreciate it always like to hear that my forecasts were right and heeded (sp?). That one certainly wasnt my finest im hoping to kick into overdrive this next fall now that ill finally be done with classes forever (for the third and final time.) and have some fun with them again. speaking of which if anyone has any input im all ears? should I keep them brief? go into satire again? im going to refrain from going into science lectures because that got kinda ugly
This whole thing is very inconvenient. I am moving a business this week. And where is half our help coming from? Yeah Winchester. Stupid winter
Clearly, you need the same policy in place as my employer: we are open whether you can get to work or not, so you better get to work. That said, as one of the few people without kids (school/daycare closures) and that actually, truly cares, I've always made it in without significant issues and my manager always gives me comp time for making the effort. Seems worth my trouble.
I hear ya. I'm supposed to be taking clients fishing in this!
I am trying to compare moving to fishing but its not working 🤨
They are both more fun while drinking.
That's correct, they are both not working.
Well, not sure what it is but I'm close to death and still have a ways to go. Someone come rub my feet.
Ice bath. It's like magic. I took one after a full day of basketball this weekend and I'm only a little bit sore now.
I get the benefits of ice baths, but to me, that just sounds like something you'd find in the CIA handbook right next to water boarding...
It is terrible while you're sitting in the icy water. But then when you feel so much better a few hours later because of it, it seems worth it to me. I like to drink coffee while I'm in there. Or if it's later in the day, a hot toddy, since it helps to take my mind off the cold.
Ummm, it will be Spring...
Lol we're about to get some thunderstorms here in upstate SC.
this past weekend we got 10 inches of snow throughout the day, followed by thunderstorms at night, followed by flurries the next morning, followed by t-storms that night.
South Dakota doesn't make sense.
As someone who hunts in the dakotas every October you guys have some abstract weather some years it's still summer 90 degrees getting cooked then some years it's a major blizzard and you get a few minutes outside before you're an icicle packing for that trips always a nightmare you never know what you'll get
I've just decided that I don't want to live in South Dakota.
[Private to TKP Users] Time to conveniently forget to bring my work laptop home so i don't have to do any work tomorrow...
Just make sure not to post that on the internet.
looks up...goddamnit
It's cool; just go back and edit your first post and add [Private] to the beginning to activate that feature.
good call... give me a minute
Edit: Thank the makers for creating such a life saving feature
Ha... reminds me of this
kinda like this right?
*chuckles*
oh shit i really logged out to see if it worked.
joe delete my account
well did it?
Your account must be glitchy, It's still working for me.
Giles has been upgraded to a winter storm warning bring on that damn snow I'm ready for it!!!!!!
Christiansburg update: just changed from rain to ice pellets. Coming down VERY hard. Hope it changes to snow soon. Stay safe out there Hokies.
Yeah my wife was driving from campus to Cburg 20 min ago and slid through a stop light and stop signs. Its turned over to snow now and looks like if it keeps it up we will have another 6" like last week.
Wow, not good, glad she's ok, its still ice pellets here on main st, cburg. Its not stickin to trees which is good, but heavy ice pellets. Already 1 inch of ice pellets on ground. Sounds crazy outside.
Its full snow now, what a difference in the sound, very quiet outside now. Coming down very heavy, roads r super slick. My wife watched a car skid off the road out front, but their ok. Stay home!
Im supplying ground truth for eshiben for his modeling. Snow rates here near dtown cburg have dropped dramatically, snowing but at about 1/2" per hour rate now. Looks beautiful outside.
I'm in Germantown,MD (northern Montgomery Co.) and we've got about 2" of powder on the grass so far. Coming down pretty steady.. we are in the 10-14" range depending on where you look.
Day 1
The winter storm has reached the Triangle. The ground is not frozen, and the air is currently above freezing, but due to the fluffy frozen precipitation falling from the sky, without the appropriate provisions, we will all surely perish. Extreme caution is necessary when venturing out and about lest you get caught in this untimely blizzard.
live from Raleigh:
This is accurate. Minus the presence of any actual ground accumulation.