ESPN pegs the Hokies at No. 16 in its way-too-early Top 25 poll. The Four-Letter is bullish on Virginia Tech's plethora of returners.
Virginia Tech lasted for only a game in both the ACC and NCAA tournaments. Not the ending Buzz Williams anticipated. In wins over Virginia, North Carolina and Duke this season, however, the Hokies showcased their potential. Now it's time to ask if they can take the next step after last season's 10-8 finish in the ACC. They lost their final three games after a Feb. 26 win over Duke, but Justin Robinson (14.0 PPG, 40 percent from the 3-point line) is back, along with three of the top four scorers from last season's squad. Williams has another strong team that could take the next step in ACC play.
Jon "THIS IS MARCH." Rothstein has the Hokies at the bottom of his top ten.
A new #CBB National Champion has just been crowned, but it's never too early to look ahead to next season. Here's @JonRothstein's way-too-early Top 25 for 2018-19: https://t.co/jdX2FlNx2g— FanRag Sports (@FanRagSports) April 3, 2018
10. Virginia Tech
Projected Starting Five:PG: Justin Robinson
SG: Nickeil Alexander-Walker
SF: Ahmed Hill
PF: Chris Clarke
C: Kerry BlackshearProjected Bench: Khadim Sy, Ty Outlaw, Tyrie Jackson, Wabissa Bede, P.J. Horne, Landers Nolley, Jon Kabongo
Key Losses: Justin Bibbs, Devin Wilson
Key Newcomers: Khadim Sy, Landers Nolley, Jon Kabongo
Comments
Its all starting to come together, isn't it. Preseason Top 10/15 hype?
Does Sy count as a newcomer or a returner? Both?
Yes.
I would predict that sy would start to keep kj away from early fouls
Nah KJ is our second-best scorer, he'll start.
Didn't Sy start most of the games his freshman year? I remember Leday usually coming off the bench to replace him at the under 16. I think KJ will get way more minutes than Sy this season, but I'm curious to see if Buzz will start him over KJ.
He had to. Blackshear was hurt and Sy was our only quality option.
That doesn't explain why he started over Leday. Leday got most of the minutes at the 5 that year with Sy coming in to give him a breather for 10ish minutes per game.
Buzz stated throughout the season that starting Sy began when LeDay was hurt in the preseason, and that they stuck with it through the season because the coaching staff and players agreed it was the best way to get LeDay a feel for the game early. We can question the legitimacy of that all we want, but that's the answer we were given.
Also, Buzz brought his two best players off the bench in many games. You could always see a shift in momentum when it happened, too. The opponents starters were a little winded and had to deal with Leday and Allen fresh and ready to pounce. If we kept it close for the first 4 minutes, we usually saw a run when those two came in.
Yeah, Buzz has started Sy and Hamilton on the past just to get the tip and get his other Bigs in the flow of the game. I expect there is a good chance Sy starts and KJB doubles his minutes. I also expect KJB and Sy playing together is going to happen very rarely. KJB can't defend many 4s.
Sy started so we could get the tipoff. That's my guess, at least.
That was my thought as well, but does getting the tipoff actually give you an advantage? The other team gets the ball at the start of the 2nd half. I really don't think it's worth keeping your best 5-position player out for potentially 4+ minutes.
This is definitely high, but most people outside the program don't realize how huge it is for us to get Sy and Outlaw back. Even if he's not a great player this year, having another big that can contribute significant minutes is huge for how this team operates. Replace some lost sharpshooting with Ty, and add some young talent as well as bring back some very talented freshman and this team should be the most exciting we will see for a while.
J Rob will be the best PG in the ACC and one of the best in the country.
I'd like to think another year in the weight room would be yuge for Sy. IIRC, when he was playing as a true freshman, although tall, he seemed a bit skinny.
He wasn't that thin. Probably not super strong, but wasn't super skinny compared to other true freshman bigs. But considering after next year we lose a solid amount of experience and production, I think next year is the year.
All year I was thinking that J Rob was a senior and was leaving. Then I found out that he was a junior and we would only be losing Bibbs. I really think we will have a potentially special team next year. Should finally get that elusive ncaa tourney win.
"Wait til basketball season"
- us
"...after football season"
"Wait 'til it's not summer..."
so just a curious question, howcome we havent heard anything about buzz leaving this offseason? last 3 years its been rumor after rumor. Is he settled here now?
There were no real good jobs available this year. UConn is still a solid job I guess but Buzz already left a good job in the Big East. Wouldn't make much sense to move to the American to play second fiddle to the women's team.
Pitt would be a downgrade at this point, and Buzz and Louisville would be a terrible fit for each other. Not only would he be stepping into a huge mess, but Louisville has no morals and that directly conflicts with Buzz's entire brand.
I assume if he has another good year, and if there are big job openings, we will resume our annual panicking next offseason.
The UConn job has been gone for over a week. They hired Dan Hurley from URI (Which is open), he was familiar with the area and really built up URI. We don't have to worry about URI, they offered to double Hurley's contract to 2 million a year to keep him. They don't have the money to poach from the ACC.
I didn't say any of them are still open. The Louisville and Pitt jobs have been taken too. But they were the 3 highest profile job openings this year.
You're not TKPing hard enough. A&M's coach is stepping down and Buzz is heading there. /s
I had heard this from a sauce also but hadn't seen it here yet. At least not that I can recall.
Maybe you just saw a repost here from 247 /s
Any chance we make a run at 6' 10" Graduate Transfer, Trey Porter?
http://www.dailypress.com/sports/hampton-university/dp-spt-odu-trey-port...
Obviously, the numbers don't work right now, but don't forget: "The numbers always work".
He seems to be leaning to Ohio St.
VT has been mentioned with wings from Kennesaw St and Oklahoma, both would have to sit out a year.
First time that I can recall our BB team being ranked higher than football preseason (probably)
Awesome that they will never be able to forget this year in and year out. The gift that keeps on giving.
Came here to post this and you beat me by a minute!
I kind of wish UMBC lost the next game and didn't make the run to the Final Four. Though it's the everlasting stain, them making the final four lessens the blow a little bit. Not much. But the little bit that Hoos will hold on to in the future when it's brought up.
UMBC did lose the next game, I think you're confusing them with Loyala Chicago. Unless this is /s and in that case I'll see myself out.
Almost made it better that K-State, a pretty middle of pack program by all opinions out there prior to the start of the NCAA was able to do to UMBC was UVA hoped to do.
Keep them under 50 points, under 30% shooting all around and defend the 3 point line.
To get further off-track, I would have never picked K-State over Kentucky the next weekend. The fact that the 2017-2018 K-State wildcats were an elite 8 team is fascinating. Having to beat an #8, #16, #5, and #11 to go the final four has to be the lowest average opponent seeding of all time.
Records/fists from the tournament that I can find or remember:
First 16 over 1
First time a region had 0 teams seeded 1-4 make the Sweet 16
Lowest combined seeding for an Elite Eight game (Kansas St. vs Loyola-Chicago)
Just going back to 2012, four teams have had paths as easy or easier than K-State's combined seeding of 40:
* 2013 Florida: #14 Northwestern State, #11 Minnesota, #15 Florida-Gulf Coast and #4 Michigan (44)
* 2013 Ohio State: #15 Iona, #10 Iowa State, #6 Arizona, #9 Wichita State (40)
* 2014 Florida: #16 Albany, #9 Pittsburgh, #4 UCLA, #11 Dayton (40)
* 2014 Michigan: #15 Wofford, #7 Texas, #11 Tennessee, #8 Kentucky (41)
Edit: 2011 Kansas has the easiest path so far:
#16 Boston University, #9 Illinois, #12 Richmond, #11 VCU (48)
2008 Kansas had a combined path of 44:
#16 Portland State, #8 UNLV, #12 Villanova, #10 Davidson
2008 UCLA combined path of 40:
#16 Mississppi Valley State, #9 Texas A&M, #12 Western Kentucky, #3 Xavier
Far as I'm willing to go for now.
Hey, thanks for doing this analysis. This is definitely way further down the rabbit hole than I was interested in going, but it proved my assumption incorrect. 2011 Kansas had it the easiest.
I guess that stokes my curiosity on who had the hardest run to to the final four. Using this metric, I'd guess it pretty much has to be VCU for the same year considering they also had to play that play-in game. I remember they were the point of focus of all the selection controversy after they made it in. Only to be Kansas en route to the final four.
Also thinking of Jim Larranaga's GMU team back in the mid-2000s. I can't remember who else they beat on that run, but I did grow up a UConn fan, had been to a half a dozen games in Stoors that very season, and can remember exactly where I was for the final few minutes of that game. That UConn team was absolutely stacked, Rudy Gay, Hilton Armstrong, Josh Boone, Dhenim Brown, and mean-mugging Jeff Adrien. Lot of NBA talent, that was one of Jim Calhoun's best lineups of all time.
UMBC =/= Loyola-Chicago
One is the chesapeake bay retrievers. The other is the fighting Gryffindors
This is an understandable mistake. But Loyola was an 11 seed so if they had played UVA, the Hoos would've lost by 40 instead of just 20.
Whoops. My brain isn't working today. I even remember watching UMBC lose their next game. So crazy.
Or I was thinking about the alternative universe where UVA still lost, but UMBC made the Cinderella run and not Loyola-Chicago, and the Hoo's used that "at least we lost to the almost national champions" argument.
The key point being, the Hoos are losers in multiple universes.
Can we just stop there?
A bit redundant, isn't it.
A bit redundant, isn't it?
I really think Outlaw will replace Bibbs' production. Not necessarily his leadership, but Outlaw might even be a better 3 point shooter than Bibbs was. That plus getting Sy back to sub in for KJ makes us even better than last year. I think Jackson, Bede and Horne stepping up in addition to getting Nolley will make us really really good.
He may replace him offensively but we're gonna feel his absence on the defensive end.
^^^^THIS!
Outlaw was limited on D before, a knee surgery since means he's probably more limited. CC's injury in 2017 really opened a door for Outlaw because he had to play and he had to play the 4. He can really only defend 4's, not big enough to defend 5's and not quick enough to defend true wings.
He can shoot as well as Bibbs but he is more of a stand-and-shoot 3-point guy. Not sure he can make those in-bounds 3's that Bibbs excelled.
Here's the video of Outlaw's 8 3's game against Miami. He's not moving much when he shoots. You can also see some of his defense on the big plays by Miami. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpQVeJ5Ioms
I didn't see particularly bad D from him... looked to me that he got caught out by Sy (alley-oop) and LeDay (3pt shot) not staying with their guys / not rotating properly.
slow rotations from Outlaw on both.
Slow is a matter of opinion, but Outlaw was effectively executing his assignment by providing help defense on those plays.
A) On the alley oop Outlaw got in position to seal the guard from driving in for the layup while staying between his own man and the rim. That is solid help defense. As a result the guard had to toss the alley-oop to a 3rd player. Meanwhile Sy let his man make a free cut to the rim to catch the alley oop. Part of that is good play design by Miami and part of it is Sy letting his man get a free release. None of it is on Outlaw.
B) On the 3pt shot that he challenges late - he is responsible for guarding the lane while Allen and LeDay try and defend the pick & roll. Allen and LeDay trap the guard and LeDay's man crashes the lane. As he does that, Outlaws man moves out of the lane to the top of the key and tries to screen Bibbs.
If Outlaw aggressively sticks with his man, the lane is wide open for LeDay's man to catch an easy pass and make an easy layup/dunk while LeDay is busy over-hedging the guard and taking his sweet time getting back to the paint.
You might say Outlaw reacted late to the pass to his man at the top of the key, but he also had to make sure that guy didn't make a pass into the paint to Leday's man. Bibbs is closer and just stands and watches, and yet gets a lot of credit this year for being a great help defender.
I'm not saying Outlaw is a great defender, but at the same time the examples in this clip don't show him to be a bad defender either. In both cases he executes his help assignment while other players on the floor make defensive miscues and Miami's offense sets themselves up to takes advantage.
Outlaw can't guard a house plant. He struggles to stay with anyone on the perimeter, a problem which could be exacerbated by his knee injury. He's not going to play a ton of minutes unless he can be a small ball 4 for us imo. He shoots the hell out of the ball though
If he shoots like he did in 2016-17, he's going to get plenty of minutes
He hardly got any minutes until Clarke was hurt.
Probably worth noting that we lose Wilson as well, whose insertion into the starting lineup changed the trajectory of our season. I realize that won't look like much of a loss from a stat perspective but clearly he made a substantial contribution to the team in other ways.
ACC is going to be crazy deep next year. 5 of the top 14 teams in those rankings. I will say I'm not sure that I agree that I like us more than UNC and FSU (both of whom I am really high on), but I do think we should be around 12-17ish. I need to see us commit on the defensive end for more than the big games before I buy us as a top 10 team.
Easily the best team Buzz has had in Blacksburg. I'd argue it's the best team he's had...period.
I'd argue it's the best team VT has had, ever.
We are actively looking for a grad transfer, so it likely means someone is leaving.
Trade Ahmed Hill for Mike Daum
the Hokies lofty ranking by ESPN will also be used to help hype the Charleston Classic. the Charleston Classic is a mid November, eight team, tournament the Hokies will be in this year. the tournament is owned by ESPN.
https://espnevents.com/charleston-classic/
Oh yea, the old ratings bump from putting a blue blood program like Virginia Tech in an April power rankings article...
A rematch with the Tide
Joey Brackets has us as a 4-seed. Give us a couple of solid losses and we could shoot up to a 2-3.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
As long as we don't jump all the way up to a 1-seed. The last time a 1-seed played a 16-seed, the 16-seed won by 20.