Football Outsiders released an excerpt of its preview magazine, and the Hokies were one of five teams included: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/files/FOA2018-NCAASample.pdf. Football Outsiders has Virginia Tech at the No. 22 team nationally, predicted to go (9-3, 5-3). Projected losses are to Florida State (32%), Notre Dame (35%), and Miami (42%). Tech has a 26% chance to win the ACC Coastal, 13% chance to win the ACC, 8% chance of a CFP berth. This seems in line with most other previews, but advanced statistics.
It doesn't seem as if the losses of Henri Murphy and Mook Reynolds are accounted for though.
On top of those losses, the Hokies lost two more likely starting defensive backs with Adonis Alexander entering the NFL supplemental draft and JUCO transfer Jeremy Webb lost with an Achilles injury. That's an insane amount of talent to replace, creating a very young team on both sides of the ball.
Comments
97% Projected Win Percentage against UVA lol
Only 77% against UNC. Even more lawl.
Interesting to see that Duke is our second toughest road game. ECU is also projected at 124.... how many FBS teams are there these days?
EDIT: 129 - yea ECU is bad
May ECU languish under the Curse of Coach Ruff for all eternity.
^^^^^this
Wouldn't that be 9-3, 6-2 since Notre Dame isn't in the ACC?
counting is hard.
Yes it should be 6-2, I copied the record from the preview itself, hence the typo. Good catch.
Actually, the records come from rounding their projected win totals. They project an 8.82-3.18 overall record, and a 5.49-2.51 conference record, and rounded them to the nearest values, rather than strictly taking the win-loss projection for each game. Take a look at OK State, they are the projected favorite in 10 of their 12 games but have a "projected record" of 9-3.
This is what I get for passing "Statistics for Engineers" with a TI-86 calculator. When I responded before, I did the mental math of 9 projected wins, and 3 projected losses, 2 of which were conference games. I didn't tally all the actual expected values.
The conference record is 1/50 from rounding the other way. (Although, I am probably adding already rounded numbers.)
True, there are likely other rounding errors, but small enough that they don't affect the 2 rounded win totals that they list on the page. Makes for a strange situation where they "project" a 9-3 overall record, with a 5-3 conference record and a 3-1 record outside the conference.
87% chance of beating GT? History would say that game is always a toss up, right? Anyone been following GT this offseason? Did they lose a ton of talent?
I believe they were supposed to be replacing nearly everyone in the offensive backfield last season and we all know how that went.
Yeah but they developed an effective passing game last season
Everyone hide.
Really just testing dc's response time
Seriously, why would you want to do that?
Haha.. not commenting on this one
1 Hour 16 minutes -- Not bad.
I think you have to say it three times in front of a mirror with the lights off if you want an instant response.
How'd you know his real name is Mary? ;^)
We get a bye before GT, plus we're at home...barring any serious injury along the defensive line..we'll win that game.
I don't know if we have a chance to to 2 out of 3 vs. Miami, FSU, or Notre Dame, but damn, that would help our national perception if we could pull that off.
Two of those while only dropping one loss in a toss up or should-win game would do our perception some good, but we need an ACC title before we even start to approach real national respect.
I'm pretty confident about beating Miami. They play GT on the road the week before traveling up to Blacksburg. It's pretty tough to win back to back road games, and it's even harder to win the second road game the week after playing the triple option #bodyblowtheory
I feel like we have a better than 32% chance at FSU, but a worse chance against both Pitt and GT. Anyone else or am I just scarred?