If you haven't been following Bill Connelly's CFB preview series, he's been writing in-depth previews for every team in the FBS, releasing one-a-day since February, and today is finally VT day. By my estimation he does the best previews around, so I figured I'd share.
My own reactions:
- Really hadn't hit home just how much we lost on defense from last year plus the offseason. This will be a YOUNG group but also maybe the most raw talent we've put on the field in a very long time.
- I think a lot of people are underselling the upside of the offense. True, there are no proven playmakers, but there are maybe 10 players who have flashed serious potential and now have 1-2 years in the program. It would be a shock if a handful of those guys didn't have breakout years.
- I'm expecting a lot of volatility this year. More than focusing on winning the division, I think we need to focus on how the team gels and new playmakers emerge. If you're hoping to curb-stomp everyone, you're going to be disappointed. If you watch for improvement and storylines, this could be a very fun season
- A 7-5-ish season would feature a lot of griping against Fuente and I'm gonna get out ahead and say that's totally unfair. A massive youth movement after some unexpected (and out of his hands) attrition is expected at some point in a new coache's tenure. Some coaches get the luxury of having it happen in year 1, which lets them show steady improvement. Fuente is getting it in year 3, where the studs of the previous regime have mostly all cycled out and are being replaced by the freshman/sophomore Fuente recruits. As alluded to in the preview, that can mask some of the progress being made behind a volatile win column. If this kind of thing keeps happening, we've got a problem. But in year 3, it's not only acceptable, but expected.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/7/24/17545964/virginia-te...
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Comments
Good write up...I feel like I read a lot of the words 'freshman' and 'sophomore'. I've kept my expectations really low this year I think the range of what we could be is pretty high but like the article said, a lot of what we have is potential.
Man, I know many on here have said good things about Bill C's writeups in the past but I'm really impressed but his analytics and writing.
I think he is overlooking what Hazelton, Farley, and a healthy Deablo bring to the table, but agree it will be a season with some great plays followed by some youth-induced head bangers. Based on this years schedule and getting Notre Dame, BC, and Miami at home, I think his 8-4 prediction sounds about right but think we easily could be 9-3 or 10-2 if the right pieces click (Jackson takes step forward, improved running game, etc.)
Or just as easily be 6-6 or 7-5 if the youngins are slow learners, or we get hit by the injury bug.
He didn't call them out by name, but he did reference our recruiting rankings from the last two years.
To be honest with you, I really can't see a 6-6 year under any circumstances. If we lose to ECU, ODU, or W&M maybe, but those 3 along with a going 4-2 in combo of UVA, Pitt, Duke, UNC, BC and GT puts us at 7-5. I think that is the floor for this team and I honestly believe we are going to pull out at least 1 win against either FSU, Notre Dame, or Miami.
I could see only getting two wins out of that ACC group. I don't think we will, but it also wouldn't surprise me if we lose games to Duke, BC, Pitt and GT. Losing all four might be a stretch, but it could happen.
I can see us losing to FSU, ND, and going 3-4 against UVA, Pitt, Duke, UNC, BC, GT, Miami - my biggest concerns being Duke, BC, GT, and Miami, with the normal fear of Pitt.
I do admit this is pessimistic/worst case view. And honestly, this schedule couldn't be better - one back to back road game (ND/Duke), bye before GT @ home, and Miami at home after the week after they play GT. The best case scenario is we are Michigan State 2017 (projected 6-6, 44th overall in S&P+, but finished 10-3, finished 19th overall in S&P+)
I appreciate that comparison, because while I can never truly take my O&M glasses off, I just have a hard time seeing us a 6-6 team with the talent we have and the way the schedule is set up. Now if Ricky Walker gets hurt, that's another story b/c he is the only guy that is truly irreplaceable on this year's team from a depth standpoint. But Mich St. is a good comparison and think 9-3 and finishing season in that #20-25 range could also be easily attainable.
I didn't see is losing to JMU 😉😔
I think it would be difficult for an outsider to really expect much from Hazelton or Farley. But to his credit he does mention that Diablo was emerging in the four games prior to his injury.
That passing downs success rate says everything about our losses in the last two seasons. Outside of dropping fades in 2016, I never feel confident we will convert 3rd and long. Our offense creates passing yards, but doesn't necessarily mean we have a QB who can drop back and make an important mid-range or deep throw when it matters most.
We need one of those 3rd and 38 kinda guys again.
Out of what we know/have seen from the QBs on the roster currently, I think Willis would be our most efficient passer by far. Big questions from him are ball security since we know a Fuente values that above all else, and overall ability/fit in the read option game. I think Willis at this point in time may give our passing game the highest upside, but Jackson is a decent but not exceptional best of all areas type QB for us.
Also never had a QB with multiple years in the system. I think Jackson could really settle into that kind of qb, just need some semblance of continuity in the passing game personnel to make it click.
I agree that time in the system and experience should change that. Merely an observation of the past performance. I was almost never confident on 3rd and long last year in particular. I am cautiously optimistic moving forward.
I'm on the 5th Fuller Train. 14-0. Book it.
And yall are sitting beside ozzy on:
Which game gets cancelled?
None, undefeated ACC champs & left out of the playoff.
UNC. Death penalty.
certainly not very efficient yet spectacularly effective
Don't these things mean the same thing? /s
The sentence that has me worried is when he mentions that 9 of our 10 ten returning LBs/DBs have under ten total tackles. A lot of players are gonna have to cut their teeth next year immediately.
I'm just going into the season with the goals of continuing the two streaks (bowl and UVA). Then expecting much bigger things in 2019 & 2020.
Hey, UVA has the same goals. Uncanny.
I suppose the one bright side is that Rivers and Hollifield were two of our more highly rated recruits out of high school. They will have time to grow into the position, at least ¯\(ツ)/¯
I forget is that efficient or effective? *ducks*
I'm sure if you asked Bill C himself, he'd say it was inefficient yet effective.
For reference:
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-fiv...
I like his win% projections a little better than the Football Outsiders preview. I also think we will see about the same level of athleticism on the field and hope they get the game all figured out this summer.
Which Freshman do you think should take advantage of the "Redshirt Rule" this year. QP is definitely my number one...along with some of the DBs that are "physically mature".
Cam Goode, Tre Turner, Dejuan Ellis, Chammari Conner are other options. I would be shocked to see QP get any time at QB unless he quickly passes Hooker and Willis.
Ellis may need to put on some more weight. Hopefully Cam Goode can cut weight..if tre turner is playing WR...unless he's in the 2 deep, i dont think he should play at all this year..
Quite Frankly, I think everyone slotted for DB should play against ODU and William and Mary.
I agree that we have too many inexperienced QBs to be giving QP minutes. I like Tre Turner to get some snaps to adjust to WR and I agree on the young DBs as we may need to call them to action. Cam Goode will get some minutes as well since he may need to see first hand the physical difference at this level to really set his weight room goals. Kid will be good, but is playing heavy right now.
Yep.
I tend to agree with what he wrote. A few things come to mind:
1. Oof, those RB highlight yards per opportunity are atrocious. IIRC, a good number is 5.0 but we didn't have a RB come even close to that. Matches what the film guys and Fuente have been saying- gotta beat the man in the whole.
2. Man, Cam Phillips was so good.
3. I'll wait until he re-runs the numbers, but the prediction makes me feel better. I think we lose to Miami, FSU, ND, and maybe Pitt/GT.
4. Didn't realize that the d-line was #6 in adjusted line yards, #5 in standard down line yards, #1 in power success rate, #13 in opportunity rate, #13 in standard down sack rate, #25 in adjusted sack rate, and #3 in stuff rate. Other than sacks and opp. rate, those numbers were better than Clemson. I know sacks get the girls, but how did that front seven not get more accolades (i.e. Ricky Walker)?