In light of the bold predictions thread, and with Fuente tempering expectations this year with all of the youth, especially on defense, I wanted to look ahead and see what the future could hold for the Hokies. A lot of people, particularly on other boards, are up in arms with the idea that this could possibly be an 8-4 season, saying Fuente is in year 3, the time to start winning is now, implying or outright stating that if this year is a step back we may need to start looking for a new coach ("someone who can recruit!!"). Anyone who tries to argue with them gets the classic "there will be excuses every year, so when's the year to expect VT to take the next step?" Here's my bold prediction; VT will make a run at the CFP in 2020.
"Why not in 2018?" Really? Be realistic, we're not there yet, way too much youth on the defense, and also mostly unproven youth on the offense. I am hopeful/expecting the offense to take a jump forward this year, but our youth will cost us a game or two.
"Why not 2019?" In short, our lines. Our Offensive line will have to replace 3 starters in Chung, Pfaff, and Nijman. On Defense, we will be replacing both DTs, and our woes in recruiting DTs recently is well documented. Again, I think we can be a good team in 2019, but not CFP good.
"So why is 2020 the year?" So I tried to project the roster in 2020 as much as possible. While I know there will be unforeseen attrition, guys leaving early, etc., I think it could be somewhat accurate, and if it is, I think we have a lot of reason to be excited. So take a look (I put the years of starting experience for the 1st string in parentheses):
| 2020 Depth Chart | ||
| Offense | 1st String | 2nd String |
| QB | r-Sr Jackson (3) | r-Jr Hooker/r-So Patterson |
| RB | r-Sr McClease (2) | b/o Sr Holston, So King |
| HB/TE | Sr Keene (3) | r-Jr DeIuliis/Jr Mitchell |
| LT | r-Jr Dzansi (2) | r-Sr Jackson |
| LG | r-Jr L Smith (1) | b/o r-So Harris, r-Fr Hanson |
| C | r-Sr Hoyt (1) | r-So Kane/r-Fr Pritchard |
| RG* | b/o r-Sr Cannon/r-Jr Brown | |
| RT | Jr Darrisaw (1) | b/o r-So Culver, r-So Tenuta, r-Fr Hudson |
| WR | r-Sr Hazelton (2) | Jr Turner |
| WR | r-Sr Patterson (2) | r-So Smith/r-So Simmons/r-Sr Denmark |
| SLOT | Sr Grimsley (2) | Sr Savoy (1) |
| Defense | ||
| DE* | r-Jr Debose | r-Jr Garbutt |
| DT | r-Sr Hewitt (1) | r-Sr Dean/Sr 2019 DT Grad Transfer |
| DT | So Kendricks/So Dorlus (0-1) | So Pollard |
| DE* | r-Sr Belmar | r-Jr Proctor/r-So Adams |
| MIKE | Sr Ashby/Jr Dax (2) | r-So Artis |
| BACKER | Sr Rivers (2) | r-So Tisdale |
| WHIP | Sr Hunter (2) | |
| CB | r-Jr Farley (2) | b/o Sr Watts, r-So Thompson, r-So Chatman |
| ROVER* | Jr Conner | b/o r-Sr Rodgers, r-So Crossen, r-So Peoples |
| FREE | r-Sr Deablo(2) | r-Sr Ladler |
| CB | r-Sr Webb (1) | Jr Waller |
| Special Teams | ||
| Punter | Sr Bradburn (3) | |
| Kicker | r-Sr Johnson/r-Jr Stout (2) | |
| Long Snapper | Jr Shadley (2) | |
| Punt Returner | ||
| Kick Returner |
*denotes new starter
1. Key positions on offense: Fuente has said the 3 most important positions in his offense are QB, HB, and C. At QB in 2020, we should either have a r-Sr Jackson with 3 years of starting experience, or a more talented, younger QB who has passed him on the depth chart. My biggest hope for 2020 is that whoever the starter is, it's the same person as in 2019, so that they have at least a year of experience. At HB, we should have Sr Keene also with 3 years of starting experience, as well as talented, experienced back-ups in DeIuliis and Mitchell. At center, as things stand right now, it looks like Hoyt is behind Chung at center, so if it stays that way we should have a Senior second year starter at center.
2. Low turnover: It's possible that we will have very little turnover going into 2020.
a. On offense, it may just be replacing Plantin on the line, and we have been recruiting OL really well recently so I am hopeful we can find a talented experienced Guard to step into that spot such as r-Sr Cannon or r-Jr Aiden Brown, whoever is better at that time, or a younger, more talented OL like r-So Harris or r-Fr Hanson can leap the older guys.
b. On defense, we will likely be replacing Hill and Gaines at DE if they both stay through their Senior seasons, but like OL we recruited DE really well in recent classes and at that point should have a really strong and experienced r-Jr class with Debose, Garbutt, Proctor, as well as a Sr in Belmar. I don't think that position should see much drop off. We would also have to replace Floyd if he stays through his Sr year, but he is being backed up by Conner, who would hopefully be ready to step into a starting role after being a back-up for 2 years. The other two positions on D to keep an eye on are Whip and Rover. If Hunter starts the next 2 years and does as well as we hope I think it's possible he goes after 2019, and I don't know who would replace him, but hopefully by then the staff would have a plan. And at Rover, hopefully we would have one of Deablo or Ladler to start. While they may technically be a new starter, I think either could step in without much of a letdown if one leaves early.
c. On special teams, we would hopefully have a Sr Punter in Bradburn, who I can only imagine will be a living legend by then. Also, whoever wins the kicking competition this year should still be on the team in 2020 with 2 years of starting experience under their belt. And don't forget, we just signed the #1 LS in the nation last year who will be a Junior in 2020, woohoo! Not sure who the PR and KR will be but it wouldn't surprise me to see a younger guy get that role this year or next and have at least a year of experience by 2020.
3. Depth and experience: The only way that teams who don't have a roster full of high 4 and 5 star players can challenge for the CFP is to have great experience in the 1st string, and good depth behind them. I think that's exactly what we'll have in 2020. The 1st string doesn't have a ton of highly regarded guys coming out of HS, but from hearing about the Fall camp it seems like coaches got a lot of the evals right, and there is a ton of returning experience. And even in the second string, there are a lot of really solid contributors that I think will turn into great starters when it is there time. (Just a note, for the two deep I tried to not include and 2019 commits. I included the OL because I think they are really talented and should provide depth, and the DTs and RB because those are our weakest positions and I'm willing to bet some, if not all will be in the two deep when they get to VT.)
4. Schedule: In 2020 our crossover opponents in the ACC are BC (of course) and Louisville, which means we miss the likely 3 best Atlantic teams in Clempson, F$U, and NC St. Also, our biggest competition on the Coastal side, Miami, could possibly be breaking in a new QB if current starter Malik Rosier stays their starter through his Sr year. We also get Miami and perennial thorn GT at home. Our toughest game that year should be against Penn St., but even that game is at home, and it's our second game of the season after we begin the year with a tune up game against Liberty at home.
Devil's advocate; why we won't win big in 2020? Here are the biggest foreseeable threats that could be holding us back in 2020 ("here come the excuses!!!"):
1. If something weird happens at QB and we are either starting a new QB that year, or if our starter at the beginning of the year goes down. I said it earlier, but I don't really have a preference for who our QB is at that point, just that they have as much experience as possible. By that, I mean if JJ is still around and starting in 2019, I would hope that he has improved enough to be a really good QB to continue starting in 2020. Or, if Hooker or Patterson have a higher ceiling, I hope we give them starting experience as soon as possible. It seems pretty certain that QP will RS this year, and Hooker still isn't ready to overtake JJ, so I hope if either one ever does overtake JJ, it's for 2019.
2. DT may still be thin. The hardest position to project was DT. The biggest hope is that one or more of the following happen:
a. Hewitt continues to improve and turns into a solid DT.
b. One or more of our current 2019 commits (Kendricks, Dorlus, Pollard) plays as a Freshman and really impresses.
c. We either land a DT grad transfer in 2019, or a stud commit in the 2020 class who is ready to step in as a true freshman, or both.
3. RB. While we may have a r-Sr in McClease, I think the jury is still out as to whether he can be an above average RB. That is putting a lot of eggs in the basket of unproven backs such as Holston and King. I love King's potential, and he should have a year of experience under his belt, but that's a lot of hope to put on a rising Sr in HS. That's another reason I would love to sign another RB in this class (Gary, Dukes, or Griffin).
4. Whip. I think it's pretty wishful thinking that Hunter sticks around that long, though it's possible. If he doesn't, we need to find a back-up plan sooner rather than later. I'm not sure who the back-up plan is currently on the roster.
So that's my bold prediction, VT makes a run at the CFP playoff in 2020. I know these posts don't often age well, but I wanted to give a more thoughtful response to the posters who ask "well if it's not this year, then when?" For teams other than the blue bloods I think it takes special circumstances, the stars aligning, and so forth to have a shot at the CFP, and I think 2020 is our best chance at having that kind of season. I would love to hear what people think!
Comments
Really nice analysis, thanks for pulling this together. You outlined your argument well, I would agree that 2020 seems like the year we would have the best team.
I could quibble with some of the projections (you've got about 3 guys as starters that I personally don't see as ever being good enough to start) but it's your work and it's a defensible projection of their growth.
Really is very little turnover from 2019 to 2020. My biggest concern may be holding on to the coach that long.
Regarding QB, I think 2018 will be a good indicator of who will start in 2019. If JJ has not taken a significant leap this year, I think HH or Patterson get a shot next year. Both are Fuente's guys that he hand picked, and both, in my opinion, have higher ceilings than Jackson. Not to mention, both can make plays with their feet - JJ looks like he is running in sand a lot of times, and lacks accuracy when throwing on the run.
The new redshirt rule will get some game snaps for QP early on this year as well.
also, throw in that the NCAA took the handcuffs off so Patterson can get reps this year without losing his redshirt. We should absolutely know who the QB of the future is halfway through 2018.
You both hit on it. I think we're completely 100% dedicated to keeping the RS on QP this year, but he's going to get his reps in against ECU, ODU, W&M, and if the past couple years are any indication, UNC, BC, and UVa. This is one of those cases where a new NCAA rule couldn't have come at a better time for us given what's going on with our depth.
And really, this could be applied with anyone we're looking to redshirt this year. Given the depth we're trying to develop, that could be absolutely key in 2019 and especially 2020.
Isn't the redshirt limit 4 games?
yeah, I read that as "one of BC, UNC, or UVa"
Is it the first 4 games or any 4?
any 4, i believe
As a fanbase, I think we really need to disabuse ourselves of the idea that we are going to see QP this year. We might, but it's far more likely extra reps will go to whoever is second string to get them ready in case of injury. Because for how exciting it might be to see a freshman, the fanbase has made it plenty clear over the years that not getting the backup ready to play is seen as an unforgivable offense.
Agreed, I would be very surprised to see QP this year unless it is the end of the year in blowouts and our back-up at that point has already gotten some meaningful snaps earlier in the year.
Have you not been reading some of the things being said about QP? There's a decent chance if he keeps progressing like he is that he's the starter next year, short of, as fernley said, JJ winning the Heisman.
With the new NCAA rule allowing a player to appear in up to 4 games without burning a RS, I would be shocked to not see QP getting reps in early season blowouts to see how we does in a game. We know Hooker will get his reps, but QP is being groomed for the future, and its in our best interests to get him reps when we can.
Yeah, i'm psyched to see him play, and the social media snippets of him throwing frozen ropes on 15 yard out routes ratchet up the excitement further. We've also been told repeatedly by coaches, media, French, etc, that he needs a year to figure out mechanics, get his classes squared away, and adjust to a dramatic increase in competition. Which means he is decidedly not the second string QB. And those blowout reps are going to go to the second string QB to make sure they are ready in the event Jackson goes down. We can talk about blowouts all we want, but in the end those tend to consist of 2 or 3 drives of handing the ball off, there's maybe 1 or 2 games a year where reps filter down to 3rd and 4th string, and even then it's ultra vanilla run out the clock.
Eh, this year always matters more than next year. I bet Willis gets the reps
Bro, do you even Fuente?
Totally agree with what you said. I am willing to wait and see the progress JJ makes in his second year as starter before I'm willing to anoint HH or QP as the 2019/20 starter. But I agree, if JJ makes little or no progress this year, I am really hopeful HH or QP will be our QB in 2019, with a year of starting experience in 2020.
As a flipside to the new Redshirt rule, it should really motivate JJ to perform if he knows that others are likely to get a look, specifically QP. Think of it this way- if you know as a starter that you have 2 high-tier talents behind you, and you need to prove that you are by far the #1 option, you'd really want to convince the staff that you're the guy for the job for the indefinite future by your play.
Doesn't McClease graduate in 2019?
He should graduate by then but he's a r-sophmore this year. So he still has eligibility left for the 2019 and 2020 seasons. He had a standard redshirt in 2015 and a medical redshirt in 2016.
All this barring nobody goes pro and our talent develops the way we hope. Injuries could totes derail a career
let's go 1-0 on labor day weekend first before we start thinking about 2020
this is a square on my TKP bingo game "Someone shoots down a discussion by saying 'we just need to go 1-0 this weekend'"
It's the free square in the middle of my board.
I thought this would be in the middle of the official TKP bingo card
via GIPHY
You're confusing
and
Oh we could make a fun game out of this... What else could be on there?
"it's pronounced Keh-vin"
Emma GIF
TE-QB-OL joke
More x than UVa fans at the Spring game
Blame it on the support staff
Join the Hokie Club
Goal Line Quad stops
it's QUADBOX GOAL LINE STOPS
OH YEAH!?! How about I kick you right in your quadbox!
I would give you four tries and render each attempt ineffective.
Harris/Lawson, anagrams
2017 Georgia Tech passing offense non sequitur.
Edit: Also trashing our apparel contract any time apparel is discussed in any context for any team.
Someone in the thread suggests that Fuente and/or Bud will leave for another school by then
ooooh that's a good one. Buzz as well
Tweeting @ Croots.
Fuck Matt Ryan
Fuck Pat Narduzzi
Something something chin balls (and or other creative Paul Johnson names)
"Y'all can down-vote me if ya want, but...."
Double points if the next comment is "I legged you up because this isn't violating the rules" or some weird jargin about legs with nothing to do with the topic at hand.
Complaining about getting hype. Double points if the statement is about preferring to be unranked and overlooked or the underdog going into a big game.
that's why I said it
Leg for the considerable effort and thought you put into this. I agree these things don't often age well, but 2020 should definitely be a year where the young core of last year's team and this year's team will be full of experienced veterans.
My biggest concern about these kind of projections is not an issue of veteran leadership or game experience, but whether or not that is enough to translate to a CFP run on its own. I think my biggest questions would be about the talent ceilings on some of these players. Will Jackson improve enough to be a CFP caliber QB? Will any of our backs be good enough to run against top defenses effectively, and perhaps the most important question of all, will both sides of the line be of high enough quality to compete with the best of the best over several games?
Lots of teams have the stars align for these veteran led type groups (it's happened to us before), but rarely does it translate to CFP/National title runs over more talented teams. I think for us to make a CFP run in 2020 we will probably need a few major gems to emerge from this and the next recruiting class.
Definitely agree with that. Experience on it's own may not be enough, but I think (hope?) our talent level in that two-deep would be enough to make a run. I think it would certainly be enough to win the Coastal, and from there we basically have to win the ACC to have a great shot at the CFP. My biggest concerns are also the RB position and the DT. I think our OL will be up to the task by 2020.
somebody help me out with what the b/o abbreviation means
"better of" seems to fit.
Body odor?
Here is my bold prediction: Short of JJ winning the Heisman there is no way QP is not QB1 by 2020
I was a skeptic but apparently QP is well ahead of what I thought he would be coming in. If he keeps progressing at this rate, I wouldn't be shocked if he's our starter next year.
oh I agree. People need to read more about Fuente and Lynch. He plays the long game and has no problem starting youth over experience once he knows he has the QB that will evolve to what he wants.
This is why I would be willing to bet we see QP on the field in approximately 4 games this season. Fuente is a strategic thinker.
What hurt us last year was not having a backup who could come in and take over if the starter gets banged up. I would hope Willis sees the field before QP.
I'll buy everyone a shot of wild turkey at Hokie House the first game I go to in 2020 if JJ is still the starter that season. As ppl mentioned QP will get reps his season and probably next as well. I don't think Fuente wants us to go through 3 years of 1 year starters with Hooker and QP sequentially and whoever comes in after.
I think JJ will take a step but in a Jalen Hurts sort of way, he's a manager that can make plays here and there and won't necessarily cost you a game. He's started for 2 years but will probably not have the job this season. So in the mold of a Hurts/Tua and Kelly Bryant/Lawrence at Clemson situations Fuente won't be able to over look Hookers or QPs ceilings and one of them will be the starter, maybe not in 2019 but for sure no later than 2020. Just my take but I agree that 2020 will be a great setup, particularly with those 3 DT recruits getting playing time in 2019 with or without a redshirt given the new rule.
Very well said. Great job, sir. Come on 2020!
My judgement may be wrong on this, looking for your guys take. As a major D1 program why are we not getting higher 4 stars and maybe at least one 5 star stud every year. We have the facilities and all the accolades to be competing with your Clemson and power SEC school but seem to be missing out or not even being in big time recruits top 5 or 10. Is this just coach Fu not being a great recruiter or something else I'm missing out on? But I do see the 2020 season being full of excitement but after that a few down seasons maybe another season like the end of Beamers tenure.
Location has always hurt us, plus we aren't pumping the money into recruiting that those SEC teams and Clemson, etc. are pumping in. We played our arm's race card with the huge indoor facility, but since then it's now all about dozens of millions of dollars costing "Football Only Facilities." There are so many factors in recruiting and honestly we are limited in some ways.
That said, I think we can realistically strive to become consistent top 20 recruiting team.
Have you been to Clemson? Our location is no worse than theirs. And not nearly as damn hot. Their nearest city is Greenville (0:45). That is smaller than Roanoke. The nearest big city is either Charlotte (2:15) or Atlanta (2:30).
Blacksburg to Roanoke is less than 0:45. Blacksburg to Charlotte is 2:49. Blacksburg to Greensboro is 2:27. Granted, we don't have an Atlanta close, but who in the hell would want that anyway? Driving around Atlanta sucks.
Screw South Carolina heat/humidity, in general.
Our location is something that other coaches try to use against us. And for some odd reason we repeat it. There's not a damn thing wrong with our location.
While it's true the traffic sucks here, I'd also point out that there's probably more elite D1 talent in metro Atlanta than in the entire state of Virginia.
As it turns out, I have been to Clemson a time or two...
So I grew up in Anderson, SC 15 minutes in a straight line from Clemson. I did my undergrad at Clemson, and I currently work in Greenville in the upstate.
Greenville, which is closer to 30ish minutes away up 123 unless you hit major traffic in Easley (dependant on time of day) and is often on lists of top 10 fastest growing cities in the country. Hell, it made a top 10 list for the world from like business insider or something (no idea how this happened).
Also, Clemson is 15 minutes off I-85 which takes you in a straight line to either Charlotte or Atlanta, where the University is currently sending a substantial number of graduates. Again, Clemson is actually closer to Atlanta than Charlotte but roughly 2 to 2 and half hours from either. The recruiting connections to Georgia from proximity have paid huge dividends in their recent recruiting success.
I am personally not a fan of heat/humidity, but clearly this is not an issue for most recruits, as almost all of the SEC teams are in hot/humid areas, and all of the Florida schools recruit well, and they along with LSU have unparalled levels of humidity and gross hotness.
As someone who drives to Blacksburg every year for games, Clemson doesn't feel nearly as remote as Blacksburg. The long drive through pretty hills, and scarcely populated farmland is beautiful, but it definitely gives off the idea that you're deep in the rural middle of nowhere. On the way to Clemson games, you pass multiple cities and towns, even on the drive up 76 (Clemson Boulevard), you'll drive through Pendleton and it doesn't feel nearly as remote or rural.
edit: Here's my main point. Let's say you respond to this with a bunch of figures with mile distances, populations of surrounding cities relative to distance, even number of flights in and out of similarly distanced airports, even if you can make an argument that Clemson and Blacksburg are almost he exact same city on paper, that doesn't matter to recruits, because it doesn't feel that way, and perception is reality when it comes to recruiting. Those rolling hills of beautiful nature and isolated farmland are gorgeous, but they definitely give off the vibe that you are in the middle of rural nowhere on the way to Blacksburg, which is not as appealing to recruits. Pretty much any of the major paths to Clemson will not take you through areas that remote and rural feeling, even if you do pass some farmland, it's just not the same.
Great points. I love the mountains and couldn't imagine living elsewhere, but they can create a feeing of isolation for some who haven't grown up in that setting. Other universities with a similar small college town vibe can sometimes give off the impression of being less remote because of just flat highway between them and bigger cities instead of winding mountain roads. At the end of the day it's all up to the recruit's personal tastes and preferences, and I can see how that may differ based upon where they grew up.
I agree with Chris, VTJ12, EPHokie, etc, that Blacksburg really does feel more remote than a lot of other schools, and that flashy recruits are sometimes drawn to flashier schools (or bigger, more city like, better known to them, easier to get to, whatever). I've made similar arguments on other threads, but not to disparage Tech, just to point out that some people may not see the benefits of a place like Blacksburg.
My pitch to recruits would be that Blacksburg is a unique college experience these days, with nearly anything you would want to experience within reach.
It's not a super-humongous school, and it's not a tiny school; it's just right. Plenty of people, but you probably won't feel suffocated.
There are a number of nice bars and restaurants, a small music scene with plenty of acts coming through the area, and plenty more if you want to go to nearby towns (Radford, Roanoke, even Floyd and Christiansburg has some unique offerings, JMU only a couple hours north), and for me 3-6 hours driving wasn't too bad to visit other schools or cities like VCU/Richmond, DC, VA Beach, Raleigh area, Charlotte, or even Knoxville, Columbus, or Cincinnati to the west.
Back to Blacksburg, nature is amazing and easily explored, camping, hiking, caving, fishing, skiing in winter, water skiing, lots of lakes, tubing and relaxing on the river, mountain climbing, waterfalls, mountain biking, so much to do if you open yourself up to new experiences.
You also get to experience different seasons with the changing weather in Blacksburg. While rain isn't always fun, it helps you appreciate the sun more when it arrives again. The Blacksburg experience encompasses the changing of the leaves and the crisp autumn winds, a taste of northeastern winters with occasional snow, the re-awakening of spring, and not terribly hot summers. Idyllic scenery and fresh mountain air. A truly unique experience.
And as people invest more in the area over the next decades, it may become slightly more appealing as a bigger town, while still offering it's unique natural wonders.
Blacksburg. Virginia Tech. Unique.
You forgot to mention you can get every season in a day. I remember vividly a day where there was a small snowfall in the morning, 75 degrees and I wore shorts in the afternoon and at night I wore a sweater and felt like fall.
100% truth
Might that have been late-90's? I distinctly remember going to class with snow on the ground and walking out of Pamplin a couple hours later and wishing I had shorts on. Man, I love Blacksburg!
Go Hokies!!
To further your point on perception: The highways into Virginia Tech are pretty great. However, an unfamiliar recruit could pass a stone's throw from Lynchburg, Roanoke, Christiansburg, and even the developed areas of Blacksburg to arrive at the sports complex without ever seeing anything but interstate and farmland.
While the city of Greenville technically has a smaller population than the city of Roanoke, this is due to where the city lines are, not the actual population of the area. The Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin Metropolitan Statistical Area has a population of almost 900k, while the Roanoke Metropolitan Statistical Area has a population closer to 300k. (And the SC upstate has a population of a million and a half)
I grew up in Greenville and spent plenty of time in Roanoke when I was a Tech, and trust me, there is soooooooo much more to do in G-Vegas. And it's only a 45 minute drive on a bad day...
And as for the weather? Really not that much hotter than SWVA, and it doesn't get as cold (and snowy) in the winter.
Depends on your definition of every now and then. We've gotten a high 4 star/5 star in a few of the past 6 or so recruiting classes with guys like Kendall, Settle, Hunter, and Hollifield. The real challenge is getting one or two of those guys in every recruiting class.
I would say its not necessarily a question about getting the elite guys every year, few programs really do, and with Alabama and Clemson pretty much loading their classes up annually, there isn't much else to go around. But our recruiting is MUCH better than it was, and you're starting to see us come out with a legitimate 2-deep of quality players at most positions to the point where we should be able to sustain a few injuries without it completely wrecking a season. We've done a significant job of raising the talent floor here from where it was even 3 years ago. All we need now is to start consistently placing kids in the NFL, and recruits are going to take notice and the elite players will start to come here more often.
That said, especially on defense, we've never been a program that has needed elite recruits to succeed. We're a program that functions higher than the sum of its parts, so by just increasing quality depth and raising the floor, we should be back to where we need to be. Where things are most exciting is on offense, where we're bringing in better talent more consistently than I can ever remember before.
I think we could be broadly similar to Oklahoma in recruiting. They recruited much lower than the other CFP teams from 2013-15. Based on ESPN rankings those three classes averaged about 30% top 300 players and were pretty evenly distributed between 4* and 3* players. They've seen an uptick in recruiting since then.
I think if our classes break down at 20%-30% top 300 and a 40-60ish split between 4* and 3* every year we'd be in pretty good shape. This would put us in the territory of consistent top 10 programs like TCU and Michigan State.
(BTW by this made up metric, our best classes since 2013 are '13(19.05%, 47.62%, 52.38%) and '18(18.52%, 40.74%, 51.85%))
TKP BINGO!!
(missing out on big time recruits / coach x not a great recruiter)
My biggest concern for the future is the DT spot. If the two recruits for the 2019 cycle don't pan out, oh boy... If they do pan out, there still will be little to no depth there. I think we are going to be loathing this situation for the next 3 seasons at least.
Hopefully Robert Porcher is a starter at DT by then. People seem to forget how excited most were for him (a larger Woody Baron).
My whole family went to PSU. Please please please let this be true. Well actually my mom went to Michigan and they already welched on our revenge, so I need this even more.
Eff that. 2018-2019 National Champs!!
Every year is our year!
Until today, I was predicting a floor of 6-6 and a ceiling of 9-3. However, my new maroon and orange glasses finally arrived. Man the world is a lot more beautiful looking through these babies!!
Jokes aside, I appreciate the time it took to do this work. I think 2020 will be a strong year for sure.
Left you at 25 legs for the article. It seemed fitting.
Your analysis brought this to mind
You can't stop the hype train