The football season is a mere 3 days out and as I sit here and wait for a massive python package (zing) to download I figured it was a good chance to give the ole forecast a look.
In case you guys didn't know we're playing Florida state and their nonstop war chant that literally everyone in the country who didnt attend the damn college is sick of hearing (sorry braves and chiefs fans but you know its overdone). Florida at this time of the year is under constant threat of being just way to damn hot and super humid. The average high temperature in the city at the end of the month of August is a whopping 90 degrees, with the low around 71 degrees. Unfortunately I couldn't find information on average dew points (actually a way better measurement for how gross and muggy it will be outside) but the average humidity comes in at around a whopping 90% at the end of the month. News flash in case you didn't know Florida is hot in the summer.
But with these consistently high temperatures come afternoon thunderstorms like almost every day. For anyone that has spent any kind of time in the summer in Florida knows, that theres about a 50/50 shot every evening that you'll get some kind of afternoon storms just from the amount of instability built up in the atmosphere from all of the heat. All you need is some kind of lifting mechanism which is typically present from the ever present sea breeze. Seriously Florida is among one of the most active regions in the world for summer thunderstorms.
So why am I bringing this up? Well despite the fact that I believe the ridge will strengthen over the region (indicating a lot of strong high pressure) I believe we'll still be prone to bouts of heavy precipitation late in the afternoon over the next few days as the sea breeze starts coming in. Because of this, while I think the game will be A-OK I would expect some thunderstorms leading up to it that may even increase the humidity, however temperatures might be a tad lower. It might actually be a pretty nice evening for Florida standards
I'm rushing through this now because my wife just called and I have to suffer through bridge traffic and get home but by and large, I think we'll be ok for game time but wouldnt be shocked at all if some thunderstorms developed in the late afternoon that gave us some trouble. Expect it to be cloudy, a light breeze, humid as hell. I think this doesn't help our situation as far as the game goes, mother nature is going to make cramping a huge issue at the game and I wouldn't be shocked if that became an issue late in the game. Expect that to be a huge problem if Florida State can maintain a ton of early drives. Hopefully we can shut them down and stop that damn war chant (sorry braves and chiefs fans but you know that shit is overdone by FSU)
friendly reminder to FSU fans everywhere....please stop the warchant
Final Forecast
High 90
Low 72
Gametime temp ~80
Cloudy
Scattered thunderstorms
Wind - eastward 8 mph
GO HOKIES!!!!!
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/59373289/usa_today_10435233.0.jpg)
Friendly reminder UVA lost to #16 seed UMBC HAPPY LABOR DAY!
Comments
So...take a change of clothes* to the tailgate? Got it.
*Being born and bread in SWVA, one would think that I am acclimated to humidity and it would not bother such a titan of a man. Wehehellll...one would be wrong. I am one sweaty son of a bitch.
friendly reminder to FSU fans everywhere....please stop the warchant
Yeah, you know they're not going to stop doing that.
But I expect it will be a lot softer when VT takes the lead in the second half.
Just wanted to reiterate the important parts of the forecast
Pretty awesome post! So... You are downloading a Python package and know a lot about Weather. What do you do?
Currently working on my PhD I'm actually working on a neural network to study atmospheric coupling (IE how the troposphere might effect things in the thermosphere). Were particularly focused on gravity waves but I spoke to someone today whose interested in using it to work with polar mesospheric clouds too once I get it working. I work primarily in IDL and python, trying to switch to python for the sole reason that it's free and I can use it anywhere and probably more likely to find work with it
The vocabulary in this post blew my mind. Leg for being at least 100x smarter than me.
I mean at this point I've been in school for damn near a decade if I didnt pick something up at this point I'd be really concerned
Don't sell yourself short. I have a BS in engineering and 48hrs of postgraduate coursework in business and construction management and you stumped the shit out of me.
Different fields haha I guarentee you I would be totally lost in a structures related course. I couldn't do that stuff
Ummmm, I guess spelling wasn't one of your long suits?
No just 6 semesters of dynamics. I'm guessing not being a douche was one of your weak points?
Edit: also I believe the phrase is "strong" suits
Actually, I've heard both ways on the suits, but you can bet I have been a douche on more than one occasion, this one included. It was a lighthearted jab at someone who I thought could take it, as obviously learned as you are. Apparently I was wrong about that, so I will apologize. I didn't mean to be critical, just funny. Swing and a miss.
I appreciate your reports here and couldn't even begin to hold a candle to you in understanding or discussing the knowledge it takes to figure that weather stuff out.
Edit: Google "long suit" next chance you get.
Probably not a good reaction on my part either my b, lots of beer and liquor I guess made me sensitive? Iunno no real good excuse here, all good and sorry for lashing out
Pre-game jitters on both of our parts? I reiterate my respect for what you do here. TKP wouldn't be the same without you.
Hug it out, boys
Well that escalated quickly
It didn't need to. My bad.
This is a thread on FSU there for strong is actually skrong in honor of crab legs Winston
I'm about 73% sure he made up half of them words!! /s
In all seriousness, great post. It gun be hot n humid down there.
I know some of those words!!
NICE!
That sounds like it involves thermo and fluid dynamics. Are there could Pyhton libraries for that or do you have to write from scratch?
A ton of fluid and thermo, I'm writing from scratch. For now we just have images that capture the brightness of ozone at a certain level, so by seeing wave-like oscillations of high/low values we can interpret the presence of waves. So were training our network to basically recognize the patterns and spit out similar images over the entire data set. From there were going to go into other satellites, apply a similar process and derive dynamics and other effects from there between the two
Basically meaning that if they spit out an image that look like what you are interested in they have learned to recognize the pattern?
Yeah we developed a huge training set and got it working for a month, it basically grades it 0 to 100 how much the patterns are similar
Eshiben what do you make of this "tropical moisture system" that's moving up from the Caribbean?
Eh I seriously doubt it organizes into anything significant I think we just see some rain and convection developing from it
Ah, yes, the convection. I've always been partial to conduction myself but, to each his own.
Is that because you don't like Reynolds numbers?
I was wrong, still dont think it hits hurricane status but a tropical storm/named system is probably in the cards albeit I think it swings west
I keep hearing everyone talking about the heat and how it'll effect tech's guys for not being acclimated, but it's looking like high humidity and upper 70s/low 80s at game time.
That's really pretty comparable to weather this time of year in Blacksburg, so I don't think it'll be as big of an issue as some people are saying. I could understand if it was a 3:30 game and it was 100+ and 90% humidity, but that's not ge case with an 8pm.
It's still humid at night, especially post rainfall. Think about anytime you've ever been outside in the summer after a rain storm. You could cut through the air with a knife it's so saturated. I agree Blacksburg summers are pretty humid but florida is gross
And I can guarantee that the humidity here on the Bay has been just that oppressive, especially the last couple of weeks. There have been mornings that I felt like I was drowning out there just trying to breathe. While I know Fla is humid, it couldn't have been much worse that it was here a few days this week.
Edited: for douchebaggery.
It was, hate to break it to you but weather can be worse in some areas than others. Also based on statistics florida is typically much worse and more humid than the bay area. Check average dew points. Read up on dew points and then come talk to me. I give you guys these updates because I like to, not because I have to. If you want to be a tool bag I'll be happy to return the favor
Oh come now, no need to join me in the tool bag. I apologized above, hope that'll do.
Edit: Also, I was just talking about the heat advisories and the humidity we've had recently here on the coast, not trying to conflate the two places in general.
Even without the humidity....
I mean, it's pretty bad down there, but it still beats #16 UMBC.
We always used to say we wouldn't mind living there longer except for the bugs.
I met this palmetto bug in my kitchen down in SC and it literally stood up on its back legs and started waving its fists at me. Apply that to spiders, scorpions, things with "milli" and "centi" in their names, etc, double the size, and you have central Florida.
"Stroke Density"
heh heh
I gotta think rain that turns the game into a war of attrition, protecting the ball, and fundamentals would benefit us. Or am I way off base?
No freaking clue. Seems like both teams do a lot of motion and lots of handoffs, and given that were certainly more experienced
Edit: were also 1-0 in shit weather games and our coaches appear to understand how to adjust for the elements. So theres that!
Hopefully they practiced this way in the past week.
..and there is a huge shield of moisture over Fla moving west towards Tally.... Eshinen5?...
Eh I think most of that stays south, again we could certainly still see some scattered junk but I dont think itll be enough to cancel the game by any stretch of the imagination
Spoke way to soon, I whiffed on this one boys sorry.... this could be a rainy game off and on maybe not as consistent as the UNC game or as heavy but rain will absolutely be a factor
Say it ain't so
You and all the rest of the meteorologists.
Definitely looks like a big chance of light rain, and a moderate chance of more. 100% chance of high humidity.