Ok, so I actually looked this up and did my best to sort it out in my head. For the Hokies to get a bid to the NCG the following needs to happen.
1) We need to win the ACC (duh, I know). This takes Clemson, Miami, and FSU out of the picture. We would be sitting at 12-1 with our only loss coming to Alabama in week 1, we would also have an impressive win over Miami and either Clemson or FSU.
2) A team from the SEC will be in the national title game. I don't see any realistic way this doesn't happen. From the SEC West, we have Bama, LSU, aTm, and Auburn all in the top 25 (all either undefeated or with one loss). From the SEC East we have USCe (one loss) and Mizzou (undefeated). Worst case scenario, you have two SEC teams meeting in the SEC championship game with one loss each, and the winner of that is going to at least get the #2 BCS spot. I suppose if I dug into this enough I could find a way that this doesn't happen, but it's just not a likely scenario with how dominant the SEC is been. On the bright side, I don't think we see an SEC v. SEC NCG.
3) The Pac12 needs to collapse. They currently have four teams in the AP Top 25 (Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Washington) and Oregon and UCLA are undefeated so far. Oregon and UCLA meet in a few weeks and UCLA and Stanford meet the week prior (thanks Hokie_x3_Hi for catching this). Basically we need Oregon and Stanford to each have two losses for them to stay behind us. If either of them have only one loss, I think they stay ahead of us in the rankings. UCLA probably has two losses with two straight against Oregon and Stanford and then having to play one of those two in the Pac12 championship game, but if they do come out of that with only one loss, and win the Pac12, they stay ahead of us too.
4) tOSU has to lose for us to even have a shot. And even if they do lose (they don't have that tough a schedule, the B1G is down this year) they may still be ahead of us. We do have the better SoS, but tOSU is a media and TV darling that may get the votes because of who their head coach is and the name on their chest, not their resume.
5) Louisville would have to lose. I know they play in a crap conference and don't really play anybody, but if they are one of two or less teams to finish undefeated this year, then they deserve a chance at the title just based on their win against Flroida last year in the Sugar Bowl.
6) The Big12 has two undefeated teams, each has to lose (Baylor and Texas Tech) and if Oklahoma knocks off either of them and finishes with only one-loss they would likely be ahead of us in the final polls (OU is currently ranked ahead of us in the AP poll).
7) This isn't a certainty, but the BCS busters losing would help. Fresno State and Norther Illinois are both currently undefeated. I'm not sure if they would jump us, but you never know.
This conversation has come up in a few boards now and I've been trying to explain why I don't think a national championship game appearance is a reality for us right now. I had just never sat down and looked at it in front of me and wrote it out. So go ahead and chip away at this and feel free to give your thoughts.
I don't say any of this to be negative or pesimistic. I'm just trying to keep myself down to earth. It's actually quite a fun discussion to have and I enjoyed researching this. My point is, that if we learned anything from last year, it's that we should enjoy the wins when we can get them. The fact that we are even talking about this team possibly winning the coastal is somewhat surprising, and the fact that we think (and it's not an absurd thought) that we can win the entire ACC is just awesome. But let's savor are most recent victory over Pitt and get ready for Duke above all else.
Anything is possible in college football and I always root for chaos so let's hope there is plenty of that in store the rest of the season!
Comments
Oregon and UCLA play on the 26th. I think UCLA drops the next 2 games (Stanford and Oregon), Stanford beats Oregon, and UCLA gets revenge on Stanford in the Championship game. At least that's what I hope happens.
Thanks for catching that. It's a possibility, but I don't think UCLA has a shot at Oregon or Stanford at all. I think the bigger threat out of the Pac12 is the Ducks and Trees. Hard to see both of them having two losses at the end of the year.
Until the media frenzy over the SEC and a couple of other teams ends (Oregon, OSU, etc) the only way ANY team from the ACC makes in into the NCG is by being undefeated and everybody else having 1 loss.
But I am going to enjoy our Hokie team no matter where we end up. But first take care of business against Duke.
Disagree that the ACC won't make it to the NCG without everybody else having one loss. Clemson could very well do it this year. If they run the table, I think they have a better argument than any team in the country not named Alabama. Beat #5 UGA, #6 FSU, and top 10 USCe. I would actually be disappointed if they ran the table and were excluded. That's a better resume than Oregon and Ohio State will have even if they are undefeated and the computers will recognize that. I have a feeling that when the BCS rankings are released Sunday, whoever wins the Clemson/FSU game will be ranked 2nd and Ohio State will be sitting around 4 or 5 because the computers are pulling them down.
If the ACC Champion is undefeated, they will play for the National Championship. If the Hokies (or another team with a loss) wins the ACC, they will not (because they are not undefeated.) It's really that easy.
Disagree. If the PAC12 Champ or SEC champ runs the table they get in before us. I think if B12 Champ runs the table, it's a toss up (depends on who the ACC champ is). I think/hope undefeated ACC champ gets in over undefeated B10 champ.
Undefeated Clemson gets in over anyone with the exception of Alabama v. Oregon. But you can even make a case of them over Oregon. Clemson's SOS is just so strong.
And if FSU blows out Clemson (like they are now) they will be selected over Oregon, IMO. If the ACC champ is undefeated, they will make the NCG.
Clemson has the best resume of anyone in the country right now, and a win against a Top 5 FSU team only significantly improves it. It would be hard to keep them on the outside looking in if they run the table, and even if they end up with one-loss but somehow still win the ACC they probably have a decent shot.
It's too bad FSU is gonna upset them this weekend :(
looks like another year w/out a Championship berth for the ACC
If FSU wins this week and then wins out, they probably make the NCG.
you really think they'll beat miami twice? (assuming we lose to miami)
you really think we can't beat FSU? (assuming we beat miami)
I said "and then wins out" for a reason.
I think both Miami and us could beat them. But I also think FSU would be a favorite in both of those situations. It's not unreasonable at all to think that if they get by Clemson they win out.
I'm sorry,
I'm just tired of all of this hypothetical stuff. I realistically don't see us going to the championship game. I just want to see us beat duke. go from there.
That's somewhat the point of why wrote this. I've seen a lot of people saying "If we win out do we play in the NCG?" and I think it's silly. So I wrote it out, this is what has to happen for us to get there. If you read this and think that the chances are on our side, I want to drink whatever you're drinking.
It's fun to talk about though, and while I whole heartedly agree with you that we should just worry about Duke; this site wouldn't be what it is without conversations like this.
I refuse to believe that we are going to go as far as I think we can, but I also refuse to accept that everything is as certain as some people believe. Upsets are fantastic (except when they happen to your team) and that's the great thing about college football. I love talking about these scenarios because there are many that are likely to happen. The best part about this year is that there is not one team that is hands down better than any team in the country on any given day. You may argue Alabama, but I don't think so. We still have 8 weeks of craziness ahead of us that can change the entire situation.
Actually it won't be an upset. FSU is FAVORED by 3 points....at Clemson. I am a little surprised about that line.
This is a good conversation to even be able to have....6 weeks ago we would not have even thought about this at all. We were worried about just winning a game. This shows how much things have improved since last year.
Yes, Clemson has a great resume, but I think FSU wins this weekend.
Yeah its a long shot..most schools don't play the two time champs bc they don't want to have that one loss. I tend to wish we had played another top 15 team instead.
At least two of those teams have a good chance to end up with two losses. aTm and Auburn play this week (both one loss), and LSU still has to play aTm and Bama. Plus, aTm still faces Mizzou and Auburn still has to play Georgia.
I know not all these teams end up with one loss. But if you look at what the SEC has done the last seven years (and love it or hate it you can't deny how impressive it is), you're crazy to think that with that many teams in the top 25, they won't at least put one team in the NCG.
There are scenario's that keep them out, yes, but I think the probability of those happening is slim to none.
Here's the thing though.
All of the AQ conferences have the potential to have an undefeated champion. Of those, the Big 12 (Baylor and Texas Tech) and the American (Louisville) are the only ones who may miss the game, even if the SEC has a one-loss champ.
Truthfully, I don't think the SEC champ will be undefeated. I have a feeling that the conference will consume itself, much like the ACC is wont to do.
I say that to say if the SEC champion isn't undefeated, it's a much harder road for them if the ACC, B1G, and Pac-12 champions are perfect.
You are absolutely right, but in this case we are talking about how VT gets into this discussion and a one loss SEC champion gets the nod before a one loss ACC champion (VT in this case).
But to bring up the situation you're discussing say Clemson wins out and so does Oregon or Ohio State, then a one loss SEC team is on the outside looking in.
And since we're on the topic let's bring up this wild scenario:
Alabama, tOSU, Louisville, Oregon, Clemson, Baylor, Fresno St., and NIU all win out and go undefeated. Who gets #1 and #2? This could realistically happen.
If you ask me, the top teams in that are Oregon and Clemson. Clemson goes, Oregon is #3. Clemson has a better resume than Oregon. Fresno State and NIU won't sniff the top 10. The top 5 would be Alabama, Clemson, Oregon, Baylor, Ohio State, with Louisville at 6. Could also see Baylor and OSU switched, but I think the body of work from Baylor would have them jump OSU in the computers if not all polls.
My favorite part of the scenario is that it give the BCS a swift kick in the ass on its way out.
Skipper, in your multi-undefeated teams scenario, Alabama and Oregon would play for the MNC. They are the media darlings, they would draw huge ratings, and they are currently #1 and #2, which means there would be little controversy for the polling systems in anointing them the 2 best teams. In other words, the beauty contest that is the BCS continues for one more ridiculous year.
ok...n00b questions here...everyone keeps using MNC. What does the 'M' stand for?
Mythical due to the fact that it's not a TRUE National Champion
lol..thanks
I didn't know either if that makes you feel better.
I think you're right. But Clemson may sneak in with help from the computers because their SoS is so high.
The really interesting thing in this scenario is how many teams have a claim for a shared title. I mean if Oregon beat Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Baylor all have a legitimate claim to be #1 as long as they win their bowl game.
So...your saying theres a chance!
YES!!!
BUT......there's also a chance Mike London isn't a cop and he's been lying to us all along.
It is good to see that Hokie fans can actually start dreaming up these scenarios again. It all starts with a win over Duke. Actually, it all starts with a Duke win over UVA this weekend. Because no National Championship scenario is complete without a good dose of LOLUVA
After last season, I'm not going to take any week for granted. I refuse to look ahead or look at rankings. I'm going to just focus on the bye this weekend.
BYE...they'll get after ya'.
I know two things:
1. As OP points out, the scenario in which we end up in the NCG is dependent on a long line of events happening in a very particular way. Some individual events are unlikely, so it is EXTREMELY unlikely that it all falls into place for us.
2. After last year, I am SO glad to have a thread on our Bye week more than half way into the season that outlines how it is possible for us to make the NCG (no matter how unlikely). We were all but mathematically eliminated from the Coastal crown at this point last year. So I will take it!!
Great Bye Week post, Skipper.
"All right, there's a thousand things that have to happen in order. We are on number eight. You're talking about number six hundred and ninety-two."- Jim Lovell, Apollo 13
Great use of that quote. You're right, this is a silly conversation to have, but it's fun. And again, my point here is actually to show how crazy it is to be thinking national title right now.
I've been sitting on it waiting for someone to make this post once VT was ranked again. Way too many things have to happen. Beat Duke first.
Look at what I wrote. That's the point of this whole darn thing.
Oregon is not going down. Alabama will lose before they do. At any rate, it's going to be tough for 1 loss Hokies to jump anybody. They're sitting at #19 with one loss right now.
For the Hokies to do anything, Oregon, like you said has to lose twice. And I would add that the Hokies will have to pummel Miami, and then pummel FSU/Clemson in the ACCCG.
"Pummel" doesn't apply to this team so much as "close call", "grind it out", and "nail biter" do.
This is a good point. We don't win with style. We just win. This is another reason I think that even with one loss, an ACC championship, and wins over Miami and Clemson/FSU, a lot of other one loss teams stay ahead of us.
Now, I wouldn't say we have to "pummel" Miami and Clemson/FSU, we just need to win those. The games where we need/needed to pummel people are Marshall, ECU, BC, and UVA. But this team just isn't built to do that.
Good post and fun stuff to ponder. The chips will fall each week and that's really the fun part of CFB season seeing how it all shakes out.
My opinion is Stanford's loss last week has them out of the picture when the first BCS rankings come out.
Few other thoughts:
1 Everyone on here I think is realistic about OUR chances and destiny but it's still fun to think "what if"
2 If you don't like the "what if" scenarios and being hypothetical then don't participate
If tech beats both duke and Boston college I'll be ecstatic. Both teams are fully capable of defeating tech.
Nothing personal, but I refuse to look that far ahead. Enjoying this season too much. Not saying others shouldn't, just not how I roll this year
This is how you have to roll this year. You're right. The Hokies are just as capable of losing to Duke as they are of beating FSU this year.
Just got to take it one near cardiac-pulmonary episode at a time.
The best part about this discussion is that we are having it and it doesn't sound completely insane, especially after the debacle that was last season.
Lets get Duke, BC, and then the big one. I for one am very pleased no matter what happens the rest of the way and I think we have a LOT of good things to look forward to
So, it's that time of the year again.
I remember having a similar conversation right before Clemson walloped us in the ACCCG when we were #3... The biggest problem is that 95% of everything that has to happen the team cannot do anything about it.
You're exactly right. This is all out of our control. We just have to keep winning, or else none of this matters.
Now if I were on the team, I would look at this for two seconds and say, "Waaaaay too far ahead of things" then never look at it again. Fortunately for me though, I'm a 22 year old who has nothing better to do than think about scenarios like this because it is fun.
If you don't want to talk about this, then don't. I understand and I won't be offended. But I am enjoying this conversation and don't see anything wrong with it as a fan. Don't post on here just to criticize a conversation for happening. And again, my whole point in writing this post at all was just to show you guys how truly ridiculous it is to think we are going to make a national championship run.
Preach! That's most of the fun as a fan is to be able to look ahead and prognosticate. I always love to read about people saying "our" or "we" when as you said they're not on the team. There is nothing any of us that are not players or coaches can do but have fun right here thinking about it and debating it! Now let's go kick the shit out Dooookie next week (then go win the national championship after we run the table after kicking the shit outa Dooook)! See isn't that fun!
I think too many people are looking at this post in the wrong perspective...
Thank you!
So what you're saying is: We have to beat our next opponent.
No, I'm saying we could lose every game from here on out and still have a chance.
Of course we have to win next week, and the week after, and the week after that, and then again.....
I'm not looking ahead. If we want to even have a chance at the NCG we have to win out, it doesn't matter who is left on our schedule. The point of this post is completely speculative and for fun.
For the record, this is just me being a complete and total smartass (and because I've never used the Fry meme before, figured it was a good time). I think wild speculation is a perfect pastime for bye weeks. Good stuff, Skipper.
It's all good. I'm not mad. I just want people to understand my point. All the "Let's just get by Duke" comments are indeed correct and I agree with the mindset, but I didn't post this to "look ahead".
Beating DUKE is like passing a physical...
going in you know you only have something to lose ...
but coming out feels like you've won the lottery.
Go HOKIES beat da DOOKIE out of the DOOKIES!
Things nearly as crazy as this have happened. Take 2008 when we were at 3-3 in the conference and needed Da U and Georgia Tech to lose a bunch of games ahead of us. I remember looking at the rest of the schedule and thinking "hey it could happen", but in order for it to happen there were like 6 different games that needed to go our way. They did, we beat BC in the bowl game, and then Cinci in the OB.
Additionally, I present to you 2007, when LSU made the national championship game with 2 losses. Anyone else remember that WVU was in line to go to the Nat'l Championship, but blew it to Pitt in the last game? That season was ridiculous, bc for like 4 straight weeks it seemed like there were 2 teams that weren't going to lose another game and would go on to play in the NC. In the end it was LSU & Ohio State.
Let us not speak of 2007
Considering we're halfway through year 1 of a brand new coordinator after years of subpar coaching and offensive recruiting, I'm more than happy to be sitting at 6-1 at a bye week, with a shot a Duke up next on the schedule. Give me an ACC title, or even a strong shot at one, and I call this season an unbelievable success.
Not sure if it's been said, but Florida or South Carolina winning the SEC after losing to their ACC counterparts would probably keep the SEC out of the NCG.
We need that SEC scenario, Texas to win the Big 12, Louisville to lose to anybody and the Pac-12 to beat each other up.
We then play Ohio St. for the National Championship. Very unlikely at best
A one loss USCe might still get in over a one loss VT because they would still have wins over Mizzou and either LSU or Alabama.
One loss USCe would also mean they beat Clemson so yes, they would get in over us. But his point was that they would have 2 losses after losing to Clemson. Also, not buying Mizzou without Franklin. Can't believe they beat UGA last week, but I don't see them getting past Florida this weekend. I see them dropping games to Florida, A&M and USCe.
If what you say is correct them that would mean a one loss vt would have wins over Miami and or Clemson/Florida state. Therefore South Carolina wouldn't jump us.
Hokie_x3_Hi hit it on the head. My strategy assumes we beat an undefeated Clemson, which would give USCe two losses.
Just came back to this thread because Louisville lost last night! A key part of my doomsday scenario
I think its very possible we don't see an SEC team in the national championship. Undefeated Clemson/Florida State versus undefeated Oregon/Ohio State beats out ALL one loss SEC teams the way it looks now. I'm sorry but my money is on Bama losing a game this year.
Yes, they would beat out a one loss SEC team. But I think any one loss SEC champion beats out a one loss VT team.
What Skipper does on Fridays at work
A) it's a Thursday
B) it's a bye week
C) most of this didn't happen at work, some of it happened during lunch
D) HAHA
The canes won..this is still possible ;)
Just WIN
Let's...
I didn't read most of the comments on here, so sorry if I repeat but:
1) It's too early for this kind of speculation.
2) Clemson or FSU would get in over Ohio State, Louisville, or Baylor, but not above an undefeated SEC (if it's Alabama) or PAC12 team (if it's Oregon). Missouri and UCLA are debatable, but if those two and Clemson are all undefeated, Clemson will probably be ranked #1 after championship weekend.
That's all that can be said for now. We're on the outskirts of contender status. It is possible. But let's at least wait until after the Maryland game before we start worrying about it.
The Cards just went down ;)
Clemson is the ACC's best shot at a title. They would have beaten UGA, FSU, USCe, VT(possibly Miami). The key to their resume over FSU (wins vs UF, Clem, Miami, VT) is Clemson will have beaten 2 top tier SEC schools and then top 5 Clemson and possibly a top 10 VT by that time. They are already #3 and with wins over FSU and then USCe they could jump to #2 I believe especially in the computers.
I think we can all agree too much has to happen RIGHT NOW. And it is ridiculously too early to speculate our chances of getting into the conversation assuming we win out. But with all that being said, there is a lot of football left and chaos is always a possibility. (i.e. 2007) Love this post, I know every week when I watch teams ahead of tech in line to be "considered" this kind of talk I tend to always pull against them.
Also speaking of 2007, was it just me or didn't last weeks slate of games show shades of 2007? Just a thought.
I loved that season. Here's to more like it
Condi Rice could sort this out in no time.
My thoughts based on conference:
SEC - I can't see the East sending anyone to the MNC this year as USCe plays @Mizzou, UF, Clemson, and the SEC title game and Mizzou's starting QB is out 6 weeks for the UF and USCe games and they have A&M and the SEC title game left. From the West, LSU has a loss and still has @Bama, A&M, and SEC title game. Auburn has @A&M, UGA, Bama, and the SEC title game. A&M has Auburn, @LSU, @Mizzou, and the SEC title game, but perhaps their biggest problem is the loss to Bama means Bama will have to lose 2 for them to have a shot at making the SEC title game. Bama has LSU, @Auburn, and the SEC title game. If LSU doesn't trip them up, even a loss in the SEC title game would send them to the MNC over VT. Probably the best scenario is LSU to beat Bama, LSU loses to A&M, A&M loses to Auburn or Mizzou, and Bama loses in the SEC title game (it's also good for UF and UGA to win over as many of these teams as possible).
Pac 12 - This conference is incredibly complicated, but I'm just going to say I don't think anyone outside of Oregon has a very likely chance at playing in the MNC (including over VT assuming we win out). UCLA has @Stanford, @Oregon, Washington, and Arizona St left. Stanford has UCLA, @Oregon St, Oregon, and Notre Dame. These teams also would have to win the Pac 12 game, which would be against each other or Oregon. The key is Oregon losing 2 games out of UCLA, @Stanford, Utah, Oregon St, and the Pac 12 title game.
Big 10 - This is a tough obstacle as someone will have to beat Ohio St. @Michigan is probably their toughest games left and then they have the Big 10 title game. Their overall schedule is absurdly pathetic so if they drop even one, there's a chance Tech could get in over them with wins @Miami and in an ACC title game over FSU/Clemson.
AAC - I'm starting to feel pretty grim as, just with Ohio State, someone has to beat Louisville and their schedule is beyond lousy. Tonight against UCF might be the best shot, but Houston and @Cincy could be possible stumbles as well.
Big 12 - A few teams need to pick each other off but not having a conference title game will hurt if these teams get one loss. I think VT winning out would get in over OU, as they had a worse loss later in the season. Baylor has Oklahoma, Texas Tech, @Ok St, @TCU, and Texas remaining. Texas Tech plays @Oklahoma, Ok St, Baylor, and @Texas. Oklahoma has Texas Tech, @Baylor, @Ok St. Okie State isn't running the table as Kansas is their only gimme out of 7 remaining games.
In summary, the SEC of course is a threat with Alabama but A&M or LSU could sneak in as well. LSU having a loss to UGA definitely helps though. In my opinion Oregon is the only real threat out of the Pac 12, but they will likely need to lose twice, which is going to be tough. The Big 10 and AAC being so weak hurts especially bad as it's tough to see Ohio State or Louisville getting a loss, but both teams are susceptible to being jumped due to that weak schedule and anything is possible. I see Baylor as the biggest threat out of the Big 12, as I'm not sold on Texas Tech as making it through the season undefeated and with 1 loss probably won't command much respect, while the rest of the teams haven't separated themselves from the pack and have a questionable loss with tough games still remaining. It would definitely be a difficult road for the Hokies, but they have some big games left on the schedule and I think they will climb very quickly in the polls and get into the discussion if they continue to win.
Go me
Good job. Not all that much of a stretch though if you saw them play South Carolina. Also there is probably nobody else in the AAC that could beat Louisville.
One of those "ifs" just happened as Louisville is unbeaten no more..that was a big one with their schedule.
You beat me to it! They will fall a long way down the polls Monday.
Reading through all the comments, I don't think this was mentioned but if it was then I missed it...
But this thread reminds me a little bit of the #BEATBAMA mentality, in that (like Joe said) it wasn't really about actually beating Alabama on the scoreboard. It was about going out on the same field and playing tough, big boy #LunchPailDefense football and not backing down or being scared but standing there toe-to-toe with the best dynasty in a decade and giving them one helluva football game, win or lose.
I apply the same mentality to this (kinda unrealistic but fun to think about) scenario. A couple years ago we ended up at #5 in the BCS the week before the ACC championship (when Clemson steamrolled us) and if a couple other games had broken the right we were right there again despite all the pundits bad-mouthing us.
But FIRST AND FOREMOST we have to win the next game in front of us, and that's Duke. Let all the other BCS chaos fly all around us but our boys need to stay focused on the game in front them and we can enjoy all the other extraneous nonsense that happens each Saturday in college football. Win Today.
(and just for fun, 2007 wasn't all that long ago either when we made it to #3 by the start of bowl season hahaha)
sooo.....
We're up to step 14 of the 1000 things that need to happen.
seems legit.
Step 15 is beat Duke.
Tell me if I'm wrong but I think we should move up in the rankings after all the batshit craziness that went down today. Not a bad result for not even stepping on the field.
We should move on up to 15th..BCS comes out tomorrow. Hard to say where we be in that cluster fuck
Things just got interesting...