A Lot of "Ifs": The Hokies Road to Pasadena

Ok, so I actually looked this up and did my best to sort it out in my head. For the Hokies to get a bid to the NCG the following needs to happen.

1) We need to win the ACC (duh, I know). This takes Clemson, Miami, and FSU out of the picture. We would be sitting at 12-1 with our only loss coming to Alabama in week 1, we would also have an impressive win over Miami and either Clemson or FSU.

2) A team from the SEC will be in the national title game. I don't see any realistic way this doesn't happen. From the SEC West, we have Bama, LSU, aTm, and Auburn all in the top 25 (all either undefeated or with one loss). From the SEC East we have USCe (one loss) and Mizzou (undefeated). Worst case scenario, you have two SEC teams meeting in the SEC championship game with one loss each, and the winner of that is going to at least get the #2 BCS spot. I suppose if I dug into this enough I could find a way that this doesn't happen, but it's just not a likely scenario with how dominant the SEC is been. On the bright side, I don't think we see an SEC v. SEC NCG.

3) The Pac12 needs to collapse. They currently have four teams in the AP Top 25 (Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Washington) and Oregon and UCLA are undefeated so far. Oregon and UCLA meet in a few weeks and UCLA and Stanford meet the week prior (thanks Hokie_x3_Hi for catching this). Basically we need Oregon and Stanford to each have two losses for them to stay behind us. If either of them have only one loss, I think they stay ahead of us in the rankings. UCLA probably has two losses with two straight against Oregon and Stanford and then having to play one of those two in the Pac12 championship game, but if they do come out of that with only one loss, and win the Pac12, they stay ahead of us too.

4) tOSU has to lose for us to even have a shot. And even if they do lose (they don't have that tough a schedule, the B1G is down this year) they may still be ahead of us. We do have the better SoS, but tOSU is a media and TV darling that may get the votes because of who their head coach is and the name on their chest, not their resume.

5) Louisville would have to lose. I know they play in a crap conference and don't really play anybody, but if they are one of two or less teams to finish undefeated this year, then they deserve a chance at the title just based on their win against Flroida last year in the Sugar Bowl.

6) The Big12 has two undefeated teams, each has to lose (Baylor and Texas Tech) and if Oklahoma knocks off either of them and finishes with only one-loss they would likely be ahead of us in the final polls (OU is currently ranked ahead of us in the AP poll).

7) This isn't a certainty, but the BCS busters losing would help. Fresno State and Norther Illinois are both currently undefeated. I'm not sure if they would jump us, but you never know.

This conversation has come up in a few boards now and I've been trying to explain why I don't think a national championship game appearance is a reality for us right now. I had just never sat down and looked at it in front of me and wrote it out. So go ahead and chip away at this and feel free to give your thoughts.

I don't say any of this to be negative or pesimistic. I'm just trying to keep myself down to earth. It's actually quite a fun discussion to have and I enjoyed researching this. My point is, that if we learned anything from last year, it's that we should enjoy the wins when we can get them. The fact that we are even talking about this team possibly winning the coastal is somewhat surprising, and the fact that we think (and it's not an absurd thought) that we can win the entire ACC is just awesome. But let's savor are most recent victory over Pitt and get ready for Duke above all else.

Anything is possible in college football and I always root for chaos so let's hope there is plenty of that in store the rest of the season!