Ok, I was home yesterday with a sick child and had time to think through a lot of different questions. Thought I would post them here to kill time before the weekend and see if other people have thoughts. Feel free to reply to any and all questions, or to add your own.
1. Does Willis raise our ceiling and lower our floor at the same time?
I think with JJ, he wasn't going to singlehandedly lose us a game with turnovers, but he was never going to win us any games lighting it up through the air either. It seems like Willis may have the capability to do both. With such a young team I can see why Fuente would maybe want to have a more consistent, stable presence at QB, but I'm excited for the highs that may come with Willis, and scared of the lows (can't be worse than ODU, right?)
2. Would you rather make the ACC Championship game and lose, or not make it at all?
At first my answer is let's make it to the ACCCG, that would be a great accomplishment. But then I started thinking that if we lose, especially if it's not very competitive, it's just another loss on the national stage that reinforces that we are not at that level yet. Whereas if we finish second in the coastal maybe that could still be seen as a successful rebuilding year without a loss on the national stage.
3. With regards to recruiting, we are after JUCO OLB/DE Kuony Deng. Wherever he commits he will enroll in December and have 2 years to play 2 seasons (no RS). Is it worth using a spot on him, or should we save it for a late blooming HS DE or save it altogether for next year?
Pro's - He's super athletic, great frame, a frame that NFL teams would love, best case scenario is he has a great two years and becomes a presence in the NFL.
Con's - He currently plays OLB, but insiders on 247 say we're recruiting him for DE, which means he will need to learn a new position. Signing him doesn't address the fact that we will have only signed 1-2 DE's over the last two classes (Adams, and maybe Becton) which is what leads to depth issues.
Overall, if he was already a DE at his CC I would be more comfortable signing him, but I think it'll take him at least a year to really learn the position (I'm thinking of Proctor, super athletic but was more of a LB in HS, he's still buried on the depth chart) which means we may only get one year of solid production with him and when he leaves we would still have a depth problem behind him. I have gone back and forth on him but I think I'm leaning towards hoping we find a true DE to sign or save the scholly.
Comments
There is no currently probable situation where not making the ACCCG is better than making it but losing. Just look at Miami last year and think about how much we'd have preferred being in their shoes.
It's like saying that you'd rather not play Alabama in the SECCG than play them. Getting there means you've beaten some really good teams along the way.
also, not making the ACCCG means a loss to one of the following:
Duke
UNCheat
Miami
BC
GT
Pitt
LOLUVa
None of those losses are acceptable. So, no, I would never rather not get to the ACCCG
You can cross BC off that list. Beating the other 6 teams guarantees a berth in the ACCCG.
GT as well. They are 0-2 already.
Yeah, thinking about "the national stage" is like putting the cart in front of the horse. We arent just gonna magically go from not competing to winning the ACC.
JJ has thrown 10 INTs and 2 lost fumbles in 16 games played. Account for the OOC games against the lesser opponents where he sat out a half, and he's approaching averaging a TO per 4 quarters played. He's often talked about here like he never turns the ball over.
I'll gladly take a chance at 4-5 more big plays in the passing game (which will also make it easier to run) if Willis can keep it to a single TO a game.
There were only 2 full time starting QBs in the ACC last year with less turnovers than JJ. Bryant and Wofford.
You also forget that JJ's career Y/att is 7.85 vs Willis' 5.96. If you want to correct prevailing opinions you may also want to look at why people think he is better at throwing downfield. Even with a correction to his numbers, because Kansas, what defenses he played against needs to be factored as well. Imagine JJ's numbers against Big XII defenses instead of ACC (WVU and OkST were also ranked top half of that conference).
I don't know what people are looking at to suggest that Willis will be any better than JJ with regards to chunk plays.
Probably both of them throwing is what they're looking at.
Solid quip, but there's no actual evidence to support it.
Because we haven't seen Ryan Willis besides scrub time and post-JJ injury. Absence of evidence isn't negative proof, so the spring game is probably the best we have to an apples-to-apples comparison instead of comparing JJ @ VT to RW @ KU.
Y/A isn't a great stat compared to average depth of target for describing "likelihood of chunk plays" anyway, and I don't know that there's good data for that at the college level.
I think that it takes some wicked mental gymnastics to throw out years of playing at another program vs one open practice. But I hope y'all are right.
I don't think it's fair to try to compare his numbers at Kansas to anything JJ has done, unless you're arguing that his supporting cast and coaches are roughly on the same level as ours. Now if French (or someone else with a football IQ way higher than mine) chimed in with some thoughts after dedicated film study, I might be more inclined to try to compare the two.
I'm not saying compare his numbers directly, but look at them with a proper lens. Yes he was playing with a terrible football team. But how is that less accurate and being completely thrown out vs the ONE practice we saw of him here. It just blows my mind to assume he's an upgrade at anything until proven otherwise.
There's a difference between saying "we don't know for sure that he's an upgrade" and "based on his numbers from Kansas, he's probably not an upgrade", which is how your original assertion reads.
All I'm saying is that the best apples-to-apples comparison between the two that we have are JJ's body of work at VT and RW's body of work at VT. Same coaches, similar personnel, same playbook, etc. And based on what we have indeed seen here so far, he has a better arm than JJ does and more of a willingness to sling it.
To me, the only comparison that matters is that JJ was chosen by the guys we pay millions of dollars to decide who should be QBing the team.
I'm sure that after several games we'll have enough evidence to make a more informed comparison, but until then it's just conjecture that the coaches were wrong.
I don't think "JJ is the best QB for the team to win" and "Playing Ryan Willis might facilitate more chunk plays" are mutually exclusive, though.
Yet you have no evidence for this. Less Y/att, lower completion %, lower qb rating at VT, not even to mention the dumpster tier numbers he put up elsewhere.
That's what I mean, people just assume that as fact. We do not know yet, based on the very small evidence we have, it's actually the opposite.
You can't quantify "better arm" with stats like YPA or completion %.
I don't see how you could have watched both QBs and come away thinking that JJ has the same velocity and zip on the ball as Willis, and the same mentality as a passer. That's what my original point was and that's what it still is. - literally actually watching them both physically throw.
Edit: French's film review of Spring Game 2018
The fundamentals of football are the same across the board, regardless of system. There is still much to be learned when watching a QB play. Decision making, vision, read progression (may be limited depending on system), arm strength, accuracy, lateral quickness, max speed, etc can all be evaluated. Those factors may shift in terms of importance depending on the system, but they are still there to be seen and probably won't change a whole lot.
I don't see any value in Willis' stats at Kansas. So many other factors at play there.
From everything I've seen and heard about Willis, I feel confident in saying he is going to push the ball down the field more than JJ did. Better or worse.
In a perfect world, JJ is the Alex Smith to Willis' Patrick Mahomes.
Reality is probably more like them being really similar, just that Willis throws a few more gun-slings.
Where are we ranked, and how close are we to the 2nd highest ranked ACC team behind Clemson? If we're already the 2nd highest ranked ACC team, or the Coastal Champion losing drops them below us making us the 2nd highest ranked ACC team, or we're so close that us losing the ACCCG drops us to the 3rd highest, I'm ok with not going, because we would be NY6 bound. Otherwise, send us to Charlotte.
In the end, the NY6 payday, exposure, and recruiting clout outweighs a division title.
I really think you, and probably every single one of us, over estimate the effect a loss on national TV has on recruits. There are just so many more important factors that go into recruiting than whether or not they saw us lose a game.
Bit if we were going to go down that route of thought, i think a recruit seeing that we are competing in the big games, ie ACCCG, is way more positive than no chance at all.
At this point, I think the ACC's reputation is a bit tarnished based on... well how poopy we've played this year. I think the NY6, against a strong team from another conference will help us tremendously with recruits.
To answer you directly, my comment had no bearing on the recruiting perspective from a ACCCG loss. I agree that being there helps, and as long as they can see you're building to something, that's good. My thinking is, if we're in a position to be in line for a NY6 bowl, I want us to be playing in it, regardless of how it happens. I would put overall priorities as such...
1 - National Champions
2 - National Runner-Up
3 - Playoff Participant
4 - ACC Champion
5 - New Year's 6 Bowl Winner
6 - New Year's 6 Bowl Participant
7 - Coastal Division Champion
8 - Lower Bowl Champion
9 - Lower Bowl Participant
10 - Commonwealth Cup Winner
This is spot on.
Hmm, I think I agree with that list. Although, I think the event of us being in contention for a NY6 and not being Coastal champion is very much low. With the current state of the ACC, not winning your division probably means you have at most 9 wins.
From a recruiting perspective, I think it's a lot easier to spin a loss in the ACC Champ game as 'being on the cusp,' and 'with you we can win the conference and make the playoff' as opposed to not being there at all.
A loss to a team that's going to the playoffs isn't going to hurt us more than merely being there in the first place helps us. Hell, part of the reason the middle of the SEC recruits so well is because of a "chance to play the big boys" year in and year out. If we make the ACCCG, it shows to all of our potential recruits that they, too, could reach a national stage against a quality opponent. Certainly gives us an edge over all the Coastal teams we beat along the way.
How are the NY6 games divied up nowadays? With the Orange bowl being part of the CFP, is the ACC still guaranteed a spot in one of the non-CFP games?
From the ACC's Website...
Clemson likely headed to the Orange or Cotton. The next highest goes to the Peach or Fiesta. If that wasn't the Coastal Champ, then the Coastal Champ goes to the Camping World, and then its all about selections.
The "ACC teams eligible for selection" line doesn't scream sure thing to me. Maybe I am being over pessimistic, but if we don't win the Coastal, but somehow rank second in the ACC, I still can't see us climbing the rankings high enough to get one of those four spots.
If we somehow make it to Charlotte without losing another game, and then lose a close game to Clemson, I could easily see us slotted in at around 10th, which would almost certainly be high enough to get a NY6 at-large spot.
That's a big ask, however. Probably around a 1%-2% chance.
It's definitely possible for us to get to a NY6 game, but pretty much mandates that we make it to the ACCCG like you said.
The way it was described to me is in scenarios where the Orange Bowl isn't one of the playoff games, if the ACC Champion is selected to go to the playoff (and not the OB), then the ACC is guaranteed a spot in the OB. I don't believe there were any guarantees for the scenario where the OB is part of the playoffs (which would happen once every three years).
I don't think the ACCCG loser is guaranteed a spot in the top 3 tiers, and could fall to the Belk Bowl or similar with a bad enough record.
In years when the Orange Bowl is a CFP Semifinal, the ACC champion is guaranteed a spot in a NY6 game. If the ACC champion happens to make the playoff, there is no guarantee for a second ACC team in the NY6.
In years when the Orange Bowl is not a CFP Semifinal, the ACC champion is guaranteed a spot in either the Orange Bowl or the CFP. If the ACC champion makes the CFP, the highest-ranked ACC team outside of the top-4 is slotted into the Orange Bowl instead.
In regards to Willis, I'm really excited to see what he can do with the opportunity he's presented. Bitter had a great article yesterday on how his whole family was D1 athletes, he comes from a Cherokee bloodline, and is a closet "meathead" (his words) when it comes to the weight room. Really nice piece. The kid has moxie and a bit of swagger it seems like. I'd love to see him develop into that Baker Mayfield type player. The stage is set and his to take.
Closet meathead? Really seems like a first in, last out kind of guy
That's what Bitter was saying. To paraphrase to protect his article, he said that Willis told him that he secretly wanted to be a linebacker so he could knock the crap out of people.
EDIT: I think I get it now, if that was sarcasm, it went right over my head that second. Well played.
I think that's almost a direct quote from Fuente, from a press conference from earlier in the week... referring to the meathead/LB mentality with a QB body
Could've been. Wasn't looking at the Bitter article when I wrote that, so it very well could've been an excerpt from Fuente he was talking about in regards to Willis.
In all honesty, whoever wins the Coastal is going to be seen as a sacrificial lamb for Clemson going into the ACCCG. I'd rather be the Coastal champ, especially knowing that we're not favored to be that (hey, we're overachievers!) than an also-ran in the Coastal. Even if we get boat-raced by Clemson.
1. I'll withhold judgement until we've seen Willis play a game. He did make some risky throws, but can also sling it deep, so the potential is there for this to be true.
2. Make it and lose as long as it isn't some 60-3 mauling
3. I'd rather we be looking for a plug and play DT JUCO or grad transfer, but finding the right fit at DT for Bud's system isn't easy.
I like the idea of taking Deng but I don't see him having the agility to play backer so all the film of him in coverage instead of pass rushing is a worry. So if we're going to take him, bulk him up and teach him how to pass rush in 2 years I don't know if it's worth it.
Side note, this is a good post with quality discussion points
Kuony 2018!
1. I agree with the text in your question -- I feel like some things could be better, i.e., better
arm and quick runner. But then possibly more INT's or inexperience/bad reads.
2. I'd rather get there and lose than not at all. Would be nice to make it there twice in 3 years.
3. I'd go after Deng, that's a good amount of eligibility and he's already matured physically.
What if our one loss was to FSU and not ODU, and we'd be going into this game vs Duke at 2-1 and 0-1 in the conference? All things the same, how do we feel about our chances at the Coastal and about the season at large?
Good question. I think it would be easier to explain away a loss at FSU (they're talented, hostile away game, first game jitters, etc.). The loss against ODU tells me that we can lose to absolutely anyone and there are zero gimme's left on the schedule. So even though we would be 0-1 with the FSU loss and have more ground to make up in the ACC, I think I would be more confident in our team. I really can't wait to see what team shows up against Duke; are we capable of being really good and really bad, or are we just pretty bad and FSU and W&M are just worse? Was ODU a fluke, or did we get exposed? I think we'll get an idea of that this weekend.
Let's hope last week was an anomaly and the perfect storm all in one.
If after beating us in your scenario, FSU still proceeded to almost crap the bed against Samford and then got destroyed by Syracuse, I'd still look at this Duke game as a tossup at best, and not exactly optimistic about our chances in the Coastal. Though I wouldn't even be considering the idea that there's a small chance we might not make a bowl game this year, so that part is all ODU's fault (well, our team's fault due to their performance against ODU, but you knew what I meant).