The ESPN prognostication department gives Virginia Tech a 54% chance to win the ACC Coastal. That's despite Miami favored over the Hokies.
Just got the updated Coastal Division champ probabilities from @ESPNStatsInfo VT - 54 percentMiami - 25 percentUVA - 18 percentPITT/DUKE/GT - 1 percent— Andrea Adelson (@aadelsonESPN) October 20, 2018
If you are wondering why Miami has better odds than UVa despite losing head to head: FPI has UVa as underdogs against Georgia Tech and VT, Miami favored in all its remaining games; so a good chance that the tiebreaker wouldn't come into play.— Andrea Adelson (@aadelsonESPN) October 20, 2018
Forums:
DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.
Comments
Unpopular opinion - but we shouldn't be favored in any game we have left. They're all 50-50 pick 'ems at best.
I disagree. We should be favorites against GT, BC, Pitt, and UVA. Not heavy favorites, but we should expect to win. I think it's easy to be pessimistic because we watch every minute of Virginia Tech football and therefore see every mistake made by the Hokies, but we watch bits and pieces of games featuring other ACC teams and don't dwell on each mistake made by Pitt or GT. Then we see the box scores of our Coastal foes and all we care about is W/L.
The whole division is a mess this year. I think the odds reflect that. Nobody knows what you're going to get from any of these teams, so Virginia Tech and Miami are favored the rest of the way because we're the most proven programs.
Having watched a several entire GT games this year I can comfortably say we should expect to beat them. They're absolutely awful. However I will not rule out our ability to play down to bad competition and lower ourselves to their level, as we do all too often.
Pitt is Jekyll & Hyde, and the fact that it's at Heinz and not Lane leads me to believe we will lose. But that's the definition of a tossup game. Both teams have had games where they looked good and games where they looked terrible so it's hard to predict who shows up. Just for comparison's sake Pitt played ND much, much better than us and played UNC about the same, barely losing instead of barely winning.
I haven't watched enough of BC or UVA to give much of an opinion other than that having both games at home should bode well for us.
Fuente has never lost at Heinz.
GT was pretty bad last year. I think they were 5-6 and they still beat us.
I don't have much faith in the defense to stop that offense. We don't exactly have the most disciplined and sure tackling players.
This. The majority of our defense has never played significant minutes against the very unique GT offense. All of the blown assignments and poor tackling this year has me terrified of GT. Have to be extremely solid in both to have a chance of stopping them.
They are not as awful when they don't turn the ball over. PJ will have a couple wrinkles in the pass game too, given our terrible pass D this year. Our best chance is to force a couple turnovers. GT never wins against good teams when they lay it on the ground. Also it would be nice if our offense could move the ball against their 57th ranked defense.
While I agree with your sentiment about expecting to win, that is entirely different than being favored to win. I'm sure we will be slightly favored Vs. GT with the outcome of that game (and each subsequent game) determining where the line should be in the next one.
Respectfully disagree. Our team has too many holes at this point. Not saying we can't win em all,but the concept of being favorites in any of the remaining games is crazy. I've seen the other teams and we really don't appear better imho
Agreed, like holy cow have I never been so happy to have a bye week in my life. Because I'm scared that the team is gonna still look like that team that played against UNC. That team will lose 3-4 more games and barely win the games that it does win.
Love it but unfortunately FPI is a useless metric
Yay! We have the best chance to be the team killed by Clemson.
Exactly. Any team in the Coastal will get nuked by Clemson.
I'll take the coastal title.
I'm with you on this. I'm so tired of seeing we are going to get hammered by Clemson if we somehow do win the coastal. Let's win the damn coastal and go play the game. Will we probably lose? Yes. But it's a chance to make a national statement win and get an ACC championship and go to a NY6. Games aren't played on paper.
Any team in the playoff is gonna get nuked by Bama , so its a wash
Like it'd be nice to win the division, but I don't know if I want us to get steamrolled by 8 touchdowns in the ACCCG. It's not a great optic for the program if we play Clemson and get murdered, but I'm not sure if it's worse to not win the division in a year that's this big of a mess.
Yall are way too obessed with "optics" lmao. Winning is always better. Winning gets us in the ACCCG. Better to have a shot at Goliath than not at all.
I'd rather lose the ACCCG than not play in it.
I'd rather see Fuente win the division 2 out of his first three years instead of going 1-for-3.
And you know what was "bad optics" for the program? 2013 when Duke was the Coastal champion and got slaughtered by FSU (en route to a natty). Duke got there with a 6-2 conference record. That was the first time we lost to Duke, and it cost us a trip to the ACCCG. In a year where the Coastal was mediocre at best, we couldn't rise to the top.
Bad optics was also finishing in the bottom three of the division 3 out of 4 years after being in the top 2 for 7 straight years.
Wisconsin gets brownie points for getting crushed by Ohio State and Penn State in their championship. Might as well take our lumps and the brownie points
Man, did you see how Ohio State killed Purdue last night? I don't know why they even play those games.
I think you left off the "/s" but maybe you don't have to add that in light of the rout. I watched the last quarter and it thoroughly enjoyed seeing Urban Meyer / OSU football team humbled.
The only regret I had was for those OSU fans that have visited TKP and have been gracious. They deserve better.
Even though I was already thinking the exact same thing, I still LOL'd when I read your comment.
That being said, I'd still love to make the ACC title game. Even if we get curb stomped, it would be a good experience for a LOT of future potential 3- and 4-year starters to play in a game like that, and against a team like Clemson.
That's what everyone said in 2016. We were 24 yards away from tieing or winning that game. I'll take our chances. Let's go 1-0 every week and get there.
Tell the team we are the underdog in every game
Honestly based on our performance I don't trust us to beat Miami or UVA, we lose either of those and that metric drops to almost no chance of winning the coastal. Don't get me wrong I hope we beat em, but you never know what kinda team especially on defense will show up. With our luck Rosier will get knocked out and perry will throw for 5 tds.
Chances that any team in the Coastal wins out are fairly slim. Actually, using last week's numbers (since the numbers on their site haven't been updated yet, though I can't imagine they'd change significantly) the FPI gives us only a roughly 9.4% chance to win out during the regular season, so even if we lose a game we have about a 50% shot at winning the Coastal.
...wrong post replied to
I'll TKP harder, my friends!
I drove up from South Carolina for that one. Twas a miserable night.
I'm confident we can beat Miami, probably more so than any other team on the schedule. We are the second of back to back road games for them (They have a road game against GT the week before us) so I expect them to come into Lane beat up and tired. Plus, Florida kids don't like playing some place as cold as Blacksburg in November.
some place as cold as Blacksburg in November.
I want it to snow.
In the 30s already at night, es possiblé...
If I remember correctly, it was pretty chilly when Duke Johnson ran all over us on a chilly, windy night game at Lane.
I drove from KY with friends for that one...extra salty ride home.
I don't remember that game being very cold...but there is a very high likelihood that I had a thick alcohol blanket on that evening (5th years are great)
I do not remember that game being played. I mean, we came to the stadium and jumped to Sandman and then went home.
This doesn't make much sense. If Miami is favored in all future games and VT is favored in all games except Miami, if it just plays out like their projections Miami wins the Coastal. (We would both have 1 loss in the ACC and they would have the tiebreaker).
Because if Mia wins out, they don't win unless uva loses. Even with 2 games UVA is a dog, there is still a % they win out.
That, and despite the fact that they're favorites in each game there's only an 11% chance they win out. Each of their next 4 games, they have between a 32% and 45% chance to lose, so it's extremely likely that they drop one of those.
The model isn't projecting any of us to win out. It's projecting #goacc. VT, Miami, and hoos are all projected approximately 2 more losses.
Maybe the model is on to something. We'll probably lose to both Miami and hoos, but they both pick up 2 losses on the way and we back into the coastal title. Seems like that kind of year.
Hello I am from the future, here is our outcome for the rest of the season (warning spoilers!):
Georgia Tech - L
Boston College - W
Pittsburgh - L
Miami - W
UVA - W
Clemson - L
I would that take that. I would prefer to switch the BC and Pitt games, but I would still take it.
So what you are saying is that the we loose our first Thurs night game against GT this year?
Here are the stats for VT vs GT on Thurs night.:
Thursday games 6-0
04,07, 10, 11, 13, 15
at Lane 1-0
at Bobby Dodd 5-0
Do any of those stats matter on Thursday night?
all of them if we win none of them if we lose.
via GIPHY
Let's keep this all in persepective. We just need to make sure we beat the fuc&#ng Wahoos. Beat the Wahoos....Beat the Wahoos.
As a non-Virginian, I care more about Coastal titles than beating UVA.
I'd never consider downvoting that remark, but I will heartily BOOOOOOO it.
I mean, I get what he is saying. I interact with zero Hoos on a day-to-day basis, so if we lose that game I would be sad, but I won't catch nearly as much flak compared to a loss to UNC or Duke or NCSU.
Some of you folks don't know how blessed you are.
No kidding. I live in Richmond. Whenever the streak ends the RTD and local news will act like uva won the Superbowl. Not to mention all the hoos I see daily.
And they'll still respond: "Just wait till basketball season..."
Well I certainly know how blessed I am, but I get booed for not even caring about the 'hoos!
Nah, I booed because you don't care enough about losing to them.
Stats aside, I don't think we even have a 54% chance to beat UVA.
According to ESPN's FPI, it's closer to 73%.
The ESPN prognostication departmentESPN is a bunch of fucking idiots.I think you mean the ESPN Sports Prognostication Network
Recursive acronyms are my favorite acronyms.
FPI seems like a pretty decent algorithm. Football Outsiders is probably better. Anyone taking it more than analysis of currently available data is probably not the smart one (which many ESPN analysts do).
Im thinking we drop 3/5 next games. Best case scenario we only drop 2/5. Regardless I think Miami probably ends up going to the slaughter, i mean acccg .
Best case scenario, we go 5-0.
Worst case scenario we go 0-5.
My personal guess is somewhere between 0 and 5.
After what happened in Norfolk last month?
Throw out the stats, probabilities, etc. I'm preparing for a month of constant hand-wringing. This team is capable of good and bad, sometimes both at once, at any time against any team.
I want us (obvi) to run the table, but I'm mentally preparing for at least one utter headscratcher between now and Thanksgiving weekend
Since the primary negative for this team is experience, it should theoretically improve each week. I expect that to be the case. I would feel much worse if a senior laden team was struggling...as in the team had already peaked and it just wasn't good enough.
I choose to subscribe to this line of thinking.
I watched the OSU-Prudue game last night. It's proof that anything is possible. OSU definitely has way more talent than Purdue but they didn't have the fight. All night long OSU defenders dropped pursuit on Purdue offensive players when they could have brought them down at the 5 and force Purdue to keep up the big performances. They didn't. The offensive players went out of bounds when multiple Purdue defenders closed in on them (no point in risking that NFL career).
Odds this and odds that. Odds can't predict that your defense will run down a guy all the way to the 1 yard line if necessary and force the opposing offense to (re)earn that touchdown. Odds can't predict that your not so mobile QB (please don't argue with me on this. Willis is not all that mobile) will juke a defender out of his shorts and run for a first down. There is no metric for grit. One thing this team has is grit. They didn't against ODU and they got handed possibly the worse loss in VT history but they had it against ND and UNC.
No one is any good this year.
1) 54%? No one must be any good.
2) LOL is better than us right now.
3) GT will beat us
4) We must beat Miami and LOL to win it.
I say sit back, grab an adult beverage or six and enjoy the hell out of the ride that will be the rest of the season. We'll have ups, downs, wins and losses, but no matter what VT football is better than no VT football.
FIRE UP THOSE HYPE THRUSTERS BECAUSE WE WINNING OUT BOYZ (AND GURLZ)!!
Good thing it's not 600%.
60% of the time all statistics are made up everytime
Sadly I've got GT as a loss, unless the defense plays its best game since FSU. I think we've got a good chance to win every other game though. Yes Pitt is on the road but we're a good road team this year, and I'm not believing the hype on LOLUVA. They might be a well coached team, and they might win a few more games, but they'll make one or two mistakes early on against us, and just like that we'll be living rent free in their heads. It'll be fun watching the snowball effect happen to somebody else for a change.
GT is a hot mess this year. They've been teetering on the edge of disaster for a few years, and it looks like it finally caught up to them. Defensively, they are getting torched by teams that really have no business torching someone. Of course, because its us, the game will be much closer than it really should be. If ever there was a year for Fuente to slay that dragon, its this year.
Pitt and LOLUVa should be wins for us. We should be favored in those games. The Hoos look much better than they have in previous years, but up and down our roster, we out talent them. And when we're focused, we are a much better team than they are. And if there is one game every year you can expect us to execute at our best, its that one. And Pitt just looks like a mess as well.
Miami is an interesting one. Are we going to get the best Miami has to offer, or are we going to get the pile of steaming feces that played against FSU and UVa? The way their season is going, they might have already turtled on 2018 before their visit to Lane.
Not really seeing that on their game logs. Not good against Clemson and the Louisville game just got weird, but they've been solid vs Duke, Pitt....even USF wasn't ODU bad.
Really seeing a lot of underestimating of UVA going around. Their talent is much improved. It used to be a position by position comparison, they had 1-3 players who could start for us. This year, it's much higher. Probably 6-10 could start for us. Much of that is experience based, but that has always been Broncos competitive advantage.
18% for UVA you say? They only had a 1.5% chance of losing to UMBC and pulled that off. You can never count these guys out. They ignore the numbers.
Should beat: GT, BC, Pitt, UVA
Shouldn't beat: Miami
Record should be: 8-3 (7-1)
A loss by Miami against @BC/Duke/@GT/Pitt would have us in the ACCCG with these outcomes.
Doesn't matter. We just trying to go 1-0