This four-game November stretch is crucial for Virginia Tech. Perception, development, pride, and wins are all at stake for the Hokies.
What do you want to see from the Hokies as they wrap up the 2018 regular season? That's not limited to wins and losses, but intangibles, player development, next steps. Perhaps it's better asked as, what would consider a successful outcome over the next four games?
Forums:
DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.
Comments
Effort.
Effort from the fans as well. It's annoying to me to see our fans streaming from the stands in the 3rd quarter. This team needs us.
Well, the thing is ... in the 3Q when the fans were leaving ... the defense had stopped GT precisely once, and sloppy special teams had given the ball instantly back to them for another short TD. GT had scored four touchdowns. The home team had run a total of 14 plays.
There comes a point as a fan when you just don't want to watch the team you love being humiliated anymore. So if you're at home, you turn the TV off. If you're in the stands, you leave. There is a difference between watching your team lose and watching your team get embarrassed.
I'll own it... I left before the 3rd quarter ended...
I forget the situation exactly, but we were down 14 or 21 points to GT, and just punted again.... forget about it. I'd rather get brownie points getting the preggo wife out and home before 11:00 on a school night.
Always the right choice. And when your baby arrives a smile will erase the pain of watching VT meltdown.
1) improved tackling
2) more aggressive db play
We very well may lose out. Just too thin. But I recall Stroman developing well. Also motu. Both much maligned early on.
Even if we lose out, I want the team to look like they're going down fighting, not folding like a house of cards
Want: 4 wins, the acc coastal crown and an upset over Clemson to win the acc championship
Don't forget the surprise playoff invite, and natty.
and a top 5 recruiting class
Id prefer 4 wins each by 85 points. But if we cant have that Id like to see the team play complete games.
I want to see the offense stop underachieving. I want us to have the feeling we can score on every single drive. RW is enough of an upgrade as a passer where I think we have the players across the board (although upgrade at RB would be nice). Hell we even moved the ball really well against ND.
We just can't seem to stop shooting ourselves in the foot on offense. Not that this is anything new for VT football but this year there is no defense to help when that happens.
It really is time for the offense to step it up. I think we have seen the potential and glimpses. Time for the offensive unit to break through.
1. A little bit more aggression, instinctive and attacking play from linebackers and db's. The famous mantra "the head is tying up their feet" has never been applicable to this many guys on one defense.
2. Better handling of adversity.
I don't know how many wins I expect, but would be extremely disappointed if we didn't win at least two more for the bowl streak.
I know the GT game was so bad that a lot of people seem to be at minimal confidence, but that game defensively was probably the most worrisome of our final 5. If the offense manages to keep scoring, our defense will get stops, there won't be another game like the GT one.
I sure hope this ages well.........
Hopefully like these 224 year old Vin Jaune. My greatgrandkids would not have to suffer like I did.
I want to see the players work hard, no infighting regardless of the outcomes, and for all of them to keep their grades up so that they continue to academically qualify to play football.
The next four games are all winnable, however I think it's going to take scoring 30 points a game at a minimum. That's not something I would imagine in a typical year playing with an LPD. I just think the margin for error is slim on the defensive side of the ball.
Although offensively we seem to have 2-4 drives per game that are head scratchers...bad snaps, inexplicable penalties (false starts, snap infractions), odd play calling, just to name a few. When we are clicking on offense we've moved the ball up and down the field, even against good defenses.
With that being said, I want to see some fire and aggressive play from the defense. There were only a couple times in the GT game where it felt like we attacked and forced GT into bad plays. We will need effort like we had in the Duke game, as that's the only game I felt we had some control from the defensive side. I'm sure many would argue the FSU game, but FSU is a shell of what they could be.
I'm not questioning the effort of the defensive players, as that side of the ball is playing with less than a full deck.
If ever there was a time for "hard, smart, tough", it's now!
A win over UVa and a top-20 recruiting class that includes two impactful JUCOs on the Dline.
A top 20 recruiting class for 2019 is unrealistic at this point, particularly for a smaller class.
Lol... smaller class? That's the red herring of the year.
A top 20 class may be unrealistic but it ain't because of a "small class."
These coaches will max out every year until they have a roster full of guys who can handle ACC competition or the fanbase had better get used to mediocrity.
Right now the class is 17 recruits. Rankings are influenced by the number of recruits, so a larger class (at least 20+) would make it more plausible for the Hokies to finish in the top 20. I never said class size was the only factor or even the limiting factor.
I'm sure the class will hit 20 with ease by signing day. Hopefully a couple of the additions are 4*, which might bump us into the top-20.
After reading the October recruiting thread it looks like the Hokies are in on a few pretty good recruits that could give that ranking a boost. The impact of getting some Juco D-Lineman could be much greater than the bump in rankings would show.
The 'small class' is an easy excuse. If you just consider average player rating, we're probably looking at a 27-29 rated class, which is definitely weaker than it needs to be.
Yeeeeeees
I feel like the DL has been absolutely terrible, Walker included. We knew DT would be thin so I guess there's not much to do about that at this point other than hold the coaches accountable for letting the position get that thin. I will give Gaines a pass this season for obvious reasons, but where are Debose/Garbutt/Proctor? These guys were all highly recruited and have been on the team for a year and a half now or longer and are all still completely invisible when the opportunity to step up is as wide open as it will ever be.
I guess I just want to see some pressure, I feel like that entire unit is just getting pushed around, and it was expected to be way more of a strength than it has been even when you factor in the DT depth and Hill dismissal. I'm absolutely terrified of what that unit will look like next year without Walker or Mihota.
Not sure if this should make you feel better, but Mihota hasn't really played much this year, so it's not like we'll truly see a drop off there next year. Hewitt has held his own I think, but if we're honest, he's not the freak athlete Settle is.
The level of defensive tackle mismanagement from a roster perspective is truly outstanding. Have to hope like hell the Hokies sign at least one JUCO that fits the system and can play right away. Two would be more optimal. Both are tall orders.
Ricky doesn't look draftable based on this year. Honestly nobody on our entire team does except maybe Nijman
It's also a young team. Even if they were playing like monsters, most of them wouldn't be able to apply for the draft.
I meant this year.
I feel like Ricky might be the single most disappointing aspect of this team and nobody wants to talk about it. Maybe he's been playing injured or something but he sure doesn't look anything like the "bell cow" he's been hyped up as now that he doesn't have Settle next to him.
I'd say Hazleton for sure looks draftable, and maybe Keene too but yeah, not sure anybody else does.
At GT I saw him getting doubled a lot. What can you expect him to do once he is eating up 2 blocks?
Exactly. Last year Settle ate up two blocks. That left Ricky to defeat one.
He's been playing injured since the first game.
I read someone say that it's extremely hard to develop players in season and basically am resigned that what we see is what we have for the rest of the year. That said, I think we should be able to find a way to win one game and I'd really like us to make a bowl and keep the streak against the Hoos. As far as things outside of Wins and Losses, I agree that there's no excuse for us not having a player who can field a punt and that needs to be fixed. Honestly I expect nothing from the defense except to play hard and limit blown assignments (the missed tackles aren't going to be cleaned up over night). I'd like to see more consistency from the offense with fewer drops and limiting 3 and outs.
To be fair he did field the punt when we ran into the kicker, but fielding punts was/has been an issue before that unfortunate series of events.
I disagree. Someone who rode the bench for a few years won't be developed. Live game time is what develops players
I think what was being said is that player improvement happens in the offseason not during the season for players who see the field.
Just compete . That is all
I'd like to see basketball season start
But seriously I want to see the defense TACKLE!!!!!!!!!
Just wanna fast forward these games honestly... I've actually never really been not looking forward to attending home games and that's kinda how I feel right now. But I'll be there, excited or not.
Some fire, somebody...anybody... play with some fire and want to. Willis has showed it a time or 2 and it seems to piss coach off as much as anything. It's been painful to watch and I know the players realize it too but damn..play for your pride if nothing else. Gonna be hard to get 6 wins though, if they get plowed this weekend I think they might go belly up...if they haven't already..still be there to cheer them on and hope for the best
Just as an aside - I just had a vision of French wasp doing his write up for this game. Man. Like he was force fed a block of cheddar cheese and washed it down with a cup of velveeta. Dude must be in a rough place watching that $hit again.
Wins over BC & UVA (@ least) as well as a bowl appearance. If possible, a win in said bowl. Oh, & when the opportunity to create/secure a turnover is there, don't waste it. At all.
At this point I don't really care about the BC game. It matters a lot less for the Coastal than the rest (in fact, even if we lose next week we're still in control of our destiny for the Coastal), and I'd much rather see wins over Pitt and Miami anyway. I get the Loeffler hate, but I guess I have other priorities.
For the most part I don't get the Loeffler hate.
Look under "expectations, unfulfilled"
I'm afraid VT coaching staffs have fallen under that incredibly vague description since 2000. Less hate there than for any person other than Loeffler. You, me, and everyone else knows the Loeffler hate started before he arrived on campus. But nice try.
Incorrect. See: Stinespring + Newsome + O'Cain (all of which was/is COMPLETELY justifiable). Seriously, there was an entire webpage titled FIRE BRYAN STINESPRING (FBS) dedicated (courtesy of Illinois Hokie) to his (their) permanent removal. I mean seriously, they had t-shirts & stuff. So no, your assertion is VERY incorrect.
I know, but (as I've mentioned to you before) I'm just weird like that.
1. Beat uva
2. Bowl game
Which means beat somebody else as well!
But, this is where I am at also - keep the two streaks alive.
While I'd like to beat BC and Miami at home, I think it is most likely that we beat Pitt.
I want to see something I thought we would see starting with game 1 this year: Kumah, Hazelton, Grimsley, & Patterson should each be getting at least 3 catches per game, with Savoy, Keene & Cunningham getting a few thrown their way. And Turner has proven himself as well. With our receivers, we should be able to easily spread the ball around.
I'd also like to see more of Debose, Proctor, and Garbutt...two of them should be starting next year, they need to show improvement in the last few games of the season.
Just go 4-0, baby
Finish each game without defensive injuries.
Fuente to show some kind of passion. He's got the personality of a stump and it seems to have trickled down throughout the program. I'm not sure I've seen a VT team fold so easily or struggle so significantly any time they face some adversity. I'm sick of the excuses and blaming the players - especially those he recruited. The team hasn't gotten better this year and he needs to take ownership of that.
I could go find a fistful of gifs that would make this argument look weak. Fuente may be stoic for a lot of the game, but when the situation calls for it the team and the refs will hear from him.
I don't get this Fuente has no emotion thing either.
I see him fired up on the sidelines plenty of times. He just moves on once he has had his say to the refs or his players. I like this instead of a 15 minute tantrum over a call or play that is done with. Move on and coach the rest of the game.
There is a lot more than 'tantrums over a call'
The premise is "personality of a stump". I don't think this is true. I do note that he doesn't carry on like many other coaches.
He may not be highlight worthy for the TV broadcast but there is emotion.
Yeah he should definitely be more emotional....like Nick Saban!
a fist full of gifs over 3 seasons? You could also cherry pick highlights to make JJ look like a Heisman candidate.
I recall him showing some fire during ND. Some hugs with Bud after we pull off a miracle against a shitty UNC team doesn't move the needle for me.
Dabo, Kirby Smart, Matt Campbell, Mike Gundy show more passion in a single game than we've seen over 3 seasons. At least give us some kind of excitement. The team used to go nuts for Frank dancing after big wins. Fuente (per the players, not just my speculation) hasn't ever done anything like that, and I think 18-22 year old guys can certainly feed off of it.
And guys like Mark Dantonio and Mike Leach show even less emotion and field great teams. You're free to say this is as big a problem as you believe. I just think this is being read into a little much.
Mike Leach has tons of personality...as much as any coach in CFB.
I'm not sure why you guys are stuck specifically on blowing up during bad calls or something. I want personality, passion, excitement, beyond just the 60 minutes during a game. You can make all the excuses you want, but Fuente is not that guy at all.
Correct, but he's what we've got and it's what he's like. I just don't see it as severe or as big an issue that you do, and I doubt he's changing anyway. Call opposing posts excuses or whatever you want I guess man.
So you say 'he's got plenty of personality' Then you agree 'he's not that guy' ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
So you say "he's got the personality of a stump" and then dismiss evidence to the contrary because there isn't enough so it doesn't count ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I'm saying he isn't going to become what you want him to be, not that he doesn't have any personality.
what evidence? Your 'handful of gifs?' Let me guess...one of him yelling at the refs during ND? One of him hugging Bud?
Watch any clip of Dabo. Watch the clip of Kirby Smart with his team after the game this weekend. Watch the clip of a random like Mark Stoops with his team after the game. That NEVER happens with Fuente. He's shows very little passion in interviews, doesn't show any fire after we get run at home...
I'm done responding after this. It's fine you don't agree with my opinion, but per the thread title, I'd like to see SOMETHING out of him that makes it at least appears like he cares about getting this team better. Not taking ownership, continuing to call out players, calling games 'four hour stomach aches' in press conferences after another terrible showing, standing on the sidelines with his arms folded as we punt late in a game we're down...just doesn't seem to help elicit much excitement out out of the guy who is the CEO and face of the program.
I don't agree with you either, but I also haven't DV'd you :^)
Have a good one bossman.
This is Fuente's post game locker room speech after the 2016 Belk Bowl:
I'm just not sure what else you're asking for. How is this not a man who cares about his team getting better?
I am not sure why you would think you know that Fuente has no energy, no personality Sun through Fri. That is a bold statement that is really hard to prove or disprove unless someone at meetings/practices wanted to chime in.
Most of these players saw a coach they respected and wanted to play for in their recruitment which includes observation of games and practices.
I just don't get how anyone can say this guy doesn't show passion.
I want to see a huge win in Lane against a ranked team that is absolutely rolling while My son and I are in the stands yelling our lungs out. I'm talking about a beating a team with a running back that just hung 150 yards on one of the best defenses in the country. And looked pretty good on defense and passing the ball as well. The last time I felt like this was the week before the Duke game. Then we brought the noise to Wallace Wade Stadium and the good guys played their best game of the year. It feels like the balance of the year hangs on this one game and this time the game is in OUR HOUSE. So strap on your maroon and orange overalls hokie faithful. We've got work to do.
Also after we win this one I will want to see us win all of the other games. But right now
Beat BC!
GO HOKIES!!!!!
I'd like to see both streaks continue, but mostly I'd like to see some progression from both sides of the ball. It seems like we have taken a step backwards during this season, in terms of execution by the players and scheme by the coaches. I hope that these growing pains show a huge improvement in the team next year.
Some creativity on offense. What happened to Wheatley? I thought we were having some success with him earlier in the season and I feel like I haven't seen much of him since...(did I miss an injury)?
Defensive aggression. Put our corners in bail technique and try to get to the passer. Might be risky, but so is having our defense on the field at all at this point.
Edit: I thought Wheatley's sweeps opened up some of the other run game and the short to medium pass game.
I don't know if putting corners in bail is a good idea, just an idea.
Players who tackle
1. I want to see a little more of Quincy Patterson.
2. I would like to see two wins to get us to 6, one of them being UVA.
3. I would like to see 4 quarters of play, and some progression of the defensive side of the balls identity.
1. I want to see a little more of Quincy Patterson
yes please. and more strategically used. not just hereeeeessssss quincy... 3 zone read carries and lets celebrate on the sideline like we won the ship. Id have liked to see him used on more than 1 drive on a game. doesn't seem worth it to me. he is a weapon. if used correctly, 3rd and 3 QB sweep with ryan willis. no thanks. not when you have 2 plays to get 3 yards with a man like quincy sitting there. or even hooker for that matter. you know you've got 3 more games you can use him in and maybe you are saving him for the U, LOLUVA, and BC? or whatever else the coaches deem the 3rd most important game. But to me EVERY game needs to be treated like a must win and if you use up quincys 3 games in the next 3 and we win all 3. Im fine with that. I don't want to burn his red shirt but I don't want to save him for anything either, don't preach 1-0 if you aren't coaching to go 1-0.
I'd honestly rather see Hooker at this point. If Fuente/Corn have a standard for who gets on the field due to knowing the playbook, etc. then let's see how Hooker handles it. They recruited him, they've coached him for 1.5 years - that to me is more of a measuring stick about recruiting "your" player and coaching them.
I have no issues with Willis, but when things aren't going well, coaches should look to inject some life into a team. Look at how they reacted when QP came in for a series vs. ND - the team should illicit a similar response with Hooker - or the people on this message board talking about a lifeless squad have some merit to stand on.
Is it fair to say this conversation is definitive proof that the backup QB is the most popular player on the team? People trashed JJ and wanted to see Willis based on the spring game. A couple weeks of Willis and it's, "I have no issues with him.... but let's see what else we've got!"
i also find it interesting that Willis is now out of favor with the crowd that always wants the backup to be inserted . Has anyone seen Willis's QB rating? ranked 15 in the country? if anyone wants to see hooker or patterson, maybe they can help the defense. Can either of these guys tackle or play corner back? Because I don't see the issue with the current quarterback. I see issues of poor tackling, pursuit angles, and not enough talent on the defense.
I'm higher on Willis now than I've ever been. He put together a great game against GT, and if that's the level of play we get out of him down the stretch, he's gonna win us a game or two that we would otherwise lose.
I think my statement was misconstrued. I stated: I have no issue with Willis.
I was responding to Joe's original post & the person above my original post - what do you want to see from the Hokies down the stretch? I've seen a lot of chatter about the shortcomings of the head coach, OC, DC, etc.
I'm saying, I would like to see how Hooker performs in this offense. If they've got the playbook for the uptempo offense were told they have 3 years ago, then let's see how our team handles it. One of those players, who was highly recruited by Fuente - is Hooker.
If we are chalking up this season as a "figurative loss", then why wouldn't we want as many of our players to showcase their skills? Why wouldn't we want in-game experience, which we've criticized the entire defense as having none of? That's my point.
im by no means saying bench willis. but goal line, short yardage. etc. if you are going to play these guys hooker or Patterson. give them more than 3 plays. and more than one responsibility on said play. they are QBs if you don't atleast have a threat of a pass when they are in then mid as well have peoples back there getting direct snaps.
i agree 100% with what you said.
Regardless of who gets put in, HH or QP II opposing defenses will basically know it's a run and stack the box until proven otherwise. From what I have seen this coaching staff otherwise will not happen. I'm not saying that's right or wrong, I'm sure they have their reasons.
My conspiracy theory is that the coaches have QP studying UVA film each week and practicing separately with some select scout team guys and after hours with our starting receivers.
Come November 23, Fuente is going to trot QP out on the first offensive play and proceed to run a different offense than we have run all season (you know - the one fans have been clamoring for for three years) - much to the shock of Bronco and the delight of VT fans.
To still honor the athletes scholarships when they decide to disband the football program.
i want to see just plain freaking improvement. Enough to get me excited about next year; to think we have a legit shot at winning 10 games. I see that we have talent, esp at WR; but dang it I wanna see some freaking improvement/growth out of our guys. I totally understand that that was literally all but three guys' first time seeing the triple option so I'm in the minority that's not too distraught about Gah Tech; but over the next few weeks we should start seeing some defensive improvement I.e TACLKING. Oh and I wanna win out; anything less should not be acceptable (for the standards of those actually playing) ******climbs off soap box*****
I want to beat BC, Pitt, Miami and LOLUVA. I dont think it's too much to ask. We suck this year but so do all 4 of those teams. If we get our heads on straight we are more than capable.
Unfortunately I expect to go 1-3 or 2-2....
I hate to tell you, but UVA doesn't look like they suck this year.
Correct, are people still not realizing that they could break the streak and make the ACCCG in Lane? Not paying attention to what is happening or just reciting stuff from the last 14 years?
Great point. You are correct. It is very realistic that this year's story could end with both streaks broken in Lane Stadium.
Also, the future is not set. The Hokies contol their own destiny in the ACC and against UVA.
I love college football!
I have watched their games for the most part. I still think they suck. They just suck less than the rest so far.
#goacc
They might suck, but they're playing with more passion and energy than VT is this year, and they've got the results to show for it. We've both got talent issues, but the key difference is that their trend line is pointing in the right direction and ours isn't.
What do I want to see the rest of the year? Convince me that UVA didn't actually make the better hire three years ago. Back then, I would have laughed hysterically at the idea. Now? "Reply hazy, try again".
Stop and think for a second. Your statement is based on the last three games alone. Is that reasonable? Three games ago, UVA was 3-2 with no good wins and a loss to Indiana. Then they:
1) beat Miami by all of 3 points at home- a team that needed a huge comeback at home to scrape by the FSU, just got handled by BC, and clearly isn't nearly as good as last season
2) beat Duke by 14 on the road- what's that you say? VT beat Duke by 17 on the road in Willis' first start in 3 years?), and 3) beat UNC by 10 at home (a team we all think is terrible and in fact our game against them factors into the argument that VT stinks).
I'm not buying that those results put them on the right direction while we're sinking to the abyss. Yes, this season has been awful and this is the worst team we've had in 25 years but I honestly don't think it is indicative of our future. If we are this bad next season, then I will be worried.
Actually, it was based on the last three years, not just the last three games.
In 2016, in typical Hoo fashion, they lost to Richmond, and just about everyone else with a pulse. Their only wins came against directional Michigan, W&M, and dook. And of course there was 52-10, bro.
In 2017, they started beating the teams they were supposed to beat, and were at least competitive in conference play (3-5). Sure, they got boatraced by Navy (hooyah, middies!). But there was clear improvement, at least until the bowl game.
In 2018, they stumbled against Indiana again, but otherwise dominated their OOC opponents, and they're 4-1 in conference play, the loss coming against an NCSU team that's just better than they are. I'm not very good at predictions, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them come into lane at 8-3, with us at 5-5 and needing the win just to get bowl eligible.
If you don't see a clear upward trend then we'll just have to agree to disagree. For all the gimmicks and BS, he's a decent coach and he's got them going in the right direction.
On the other hand, CJF added a quality QB transfer to a roster largely established by his predecessor and won 10 games, capped off by an improbable comeback win against Arkansas. Great accomplishment to be sure, and I don't want to take anything away from it. 2016 exceeded my expectations, and I remember thinking how smoothly the transition had gone, and how that just doesn't happen. Yeah, we stumbled against GT, and laid an egg against 'cuse, but other than that we looked pretty damned good, and gave Clemson all they could handle in the ACCCG. COY honors were absolutely deserved.
We followed that up by going 9-4 with a pretty similar trajectory, winning the games we were supposed to, beating a good WVU team, coming up short against Clemson and Miami, and laying an egg against GT. The bowl game was a little disappointing, but hey OkSt is no slouch of an opponent. Still, though, the loss against GT was particularly frustrating because it's a game we should have won.
In 2018, we opened with an exciting win against F$U, who we later learned was just really bad, smoked W&M, and then committed an unforgivable sin losing to ODU. I gotta be honest, when I hear a coach toss out the old "we didn't have a good week of practice" excuse it makes my blood boil. Dude, you are paid $4M a year to guarantee that there ARE no bad weeks of practice! Anyway, we followed that up with a win against dook and a loss to ND, who is admittedly a better team, but man did we have chances to steal that one. Then we lost to UNC, only to have them lose harder at the last second, and we just got abused by a GT team that didn't even complete a forward pass. Not only did we lose to a mediocre team, we looked bad doing it. Again, I suck at predictions, but it's not hard to imagine us going 1-3 the rest of the way, breaking both streaks in the process.
Call me crazy, but I see a clear downward trend. I hope I'm just being overly pessimistic and falling prey to recency bias. I see discipline issues on and off the field, recruiting/development challenges, piss poor playcalling at times, and some pretty glaring roster gaps. For example, is there a reason to expect that the 2019 defense will be substantially better than the 2018 edition, other than "guys usually get better as they get older" or "Foster is awesome and never shits the bed twice in a row"?
I don't think (and never said) that we're sinking into the abyss, but I am starting to question the hire. I hope I'm wrong.
Letting you know this is a totally reasonable post before it gets shouted down.
Letting you know I legged that post for being a well thought out quality post that isn't antagonistic.
I understand your post and perspective but I also think I see the root of why I didn't agree with your original post (it wasn't that UVA isn't trending up but rather the "convince me that UVA didn't actually make the better hire three years ago.") Anyway, it's the expectations. Your expectations were set unreasonably high for Fuente after 2016 and you touched on it when you said, "that just doesn't happen." It really doesn't happen, especially when you are transitioning between coaches implementing a completely different system. Under Fuente we went from a 14-12 team the previous two seasons to 19-8. And yes, we're having a bad season, but ultimately our 3 year record under Fuente (23-11 currently) is going to be superior our previous 3 years under Beamer (22-17) even if we lose every remaining game. So I don't agree that this single season proves a downward trajectory in the program and think the expectations set in 2016 are the reason so many fans feel that way (the "won too many games too fast" problem).
Conversely, you hint that your expectations for UVA had essentially become losing to Richmond every year. That's an unrealistically low expectation for any P5 team (even including Kansas and Rutgers). While I tend to agree that Bronco has the Hoos "trending up," it was almost guaranteed given the point they started at. Also I'd recommend looking at their schedule and seeing how much worse it is this year compared to previous years. I don't think Bronco is a terrible coach but, hell, even Mike London went 8-5 and played in the Chick-fil-a Bowl at one point.
Ultimately I think your expectations are affecting your opinion about the long term health of both programs. I'll leave you with this though- Fuente is currently 3-0 against Bronco in his career. It's going to take at least another full season before I think it's worth considering.
What I want to see is us run the table all the way to wherever that takes us.
What I would be satisfied seeing is a win over UVA and a trip to a bowl.
What I could maybe stomach are hard fought single score losses. That means no lame single score losses and no hard fought blow outs (expect for maybe Clemson and in the bowl game if we get matched up against a really tough team). Clearly this is dependent on two more wins.
What I don't want to ever see again is another team sitting on their bench before the game is over looking cool and comfortable like the game was never in question... especially in Lane. No team should feel comfortable in Lane stadium for any part of the game when on the field. The GT players looked like they were hanging out at a backyard BBQ, watching some other group of players kick the crap out of us. They were far too comfortable in our house.
Is running the table possible? It's possible. GT was an embarrassing loss and even our best defenses don't show improvement in the GT game (or even look good). There is no way to evaluate how the defense progressed against GT. I also imagine that without Ladler and with a hobbled Deablo the secondary could not be helpful. Ladler was ejected on the first drive of the third quarter with the score at 28-21. GT went on to score three more touchdowns... I may have just contradicted myself on that. They scored fewer touchdowns when Ladler was out... Anyway... Not a great game for analyzing defensive performance. In todays game the primary function of corner backs is shutting down receivers. Do they occasionally have to be great against the run? Sure, but not on every down. Lastly lets not forget how costly everything around the muffed punt was (and on the same drive failing to recover a fumble). The score was 21-14 VT when Savoy fumbled at the VT 12 yard line. GT scores on that drive tying the game.
What I don't get is how the offense drops off a cliff. It has done that in every game regardless of who's on the field. At the beginning of Fuente's run the offense couldn't get started. What we see now is that it gets started and then falters. Maybe the playbook is not opened up enough yet... But if now isn't the time I don't know when is. I don't know.
In general the cornerbacks have come along. It may not seem that way but if you watch both Watts and Farley defend passes they are really getting nearly perfect breakups. Arms extended through the receiver's arms and (mostly) not drawing PI flags. That's huge for young DBs. Some of our more experienced DBs last year were not getting those kinds of picture perfect breakups. That means some form of technique is being absorbed. It may not be in the order we want it to be absorbed but different people learn differently. i.e. being in position vs properly breaking up a pass. I thought Calculus was easy and struggled with Algebra. That was weird. At the end of the day I was really good at both but I guess doing Calculus enough really nailed down Algebra for me.
This team needs to maintain its composure a little better. That is also really hard with young players. You give them conflicting guidance. "Go out there a play with emotion!". "Don't get down when things don't go our way. You have to be unflappable". I guess older players can reconcile that.
What to expect down the stretch? Generally nothing but let's take a crack at it based on how teams played each other.
Boston College: Hard to say. We have had no opponents in common. They
beatlost to NC State,butthen NC State went on to lose in a shoot out with Syracuse (I tried watching the game but Mowins shredded my ear drums. Decent analysis but a voice for print). Syracuse plays Clemson close (but they seem to recently) but then gets shredded by Pitt. No clue. Won't even try.Pitt: Loses to UNC in a shoot out and wins a shoot out vs. Duke. Conclusion? Their secondary isn't very good. I don't really know what the means vs. our offense but I think our receivers have an advantage. I like our chances in this game even at Heinz.
Miami: This Miami team is not that good. With confidence and sound play I like our chances here. They don't have a credible QB regardless of whether it's Rozier or Perry.
UVA: UVA is looking seriously good this year. I am a bit terrified of this game. Our team needs to bring everything during that game. I can't even call this one.
Overall I like our chances against Pitt and Miami and put BC and UVA as a toss up.
NC State beat BC.
Thanks for catching that.
40 yards or less of penalties per game.
Right now we are averaging 60.5 penalty yards per game. That puts us 80th in FBS. If we can slash penalties by a third, I think we can go .500 (maybe better) in our next 4 games, make a bowl, and maybe beat UVA.
At this point in the season, I'm less interested in wins/losses, and more interested in seeing if Fuente can build a culture. The most frustrating part of the season hasn't been the wins and the losses, the playcalling, or even the player development; it's been the lack of discipline and the lack of effort. Penalty yards is a metric we can use to measure disapline and effort.
Win over UVA on my birthday and I'll be happy. Other than that, just any sign of improvement and growth to end the season.
I just want to see Fuente do what he promised... show everyone in Blacksburg an offense. The D is what it is... Give us some points please.
This myth needs to stop. The offense is absolutely improving. According to S&P+ our offense was:
85th51st in 20162017 was a rebuilding year; we lost too much talent to not take a step back. The offense is trending up, we're building depth at WR and QB. We may have the best OL that Blacksburg's seen in over a decade. The offense may not be pretty, and it ain't perfect, but Fuente is definitely building something in Blacksburg.
For reference, our defense is 91st according to S&P+, and our Special Teams is 10th, putting us at 55 overall entering week 9.
Edit: correction. Not sure where I got 85th from. I thought that seemed a little high, but I shrugged it off b/c I remember a handful of stalled drives that year. Thanks for catching mogwaiaredangerous.
51st in 2016 actually, which is crazy. Fuente took the same team and improved by 49 spots in the rankings. Near total attrition sank last year's team, but the offense has absolutely been improving, and that's all before he starts getting his own QB recruits up to speed (ie. when they are RS sophomores/juniors, no one should be expecting a freshman QB to produce all that much).
I think the reason people feel like the offense isn't delivering is because it isn't showing up on the scoreboard.
2015: 30.1 points per game
2016: 34.9 points per game
2017: 28.2 points per game
2018: 27.2 points per game
We had 28 points vs GT on only 47 plays. Would have pushed 50 on regular plays.
The UNC game was the bad one. We were quite good vs GT
We had only 47 plays in part because on 3 out 4 drives in a sequence we went 3 or 4 plays and out... again for a quarter we were terrible on offense against GT.
And Fuente specifically called that out as the most frustrating thing about the game for him. To have such offensive success out of the gate only to have it dry up like it did for that stretch is a head scratcher. Then again, Tre Turner isn't going to always have those freshman dropsies, and Kumah's P.I. penalty, while drive killing, was because he was doing everything in his power to get open for his QB (which turned out to be a little bit more than the rules would allow.)
Did someone remind Coach Fuente that the other coach is allowed to make adjustments during the game?
I mean, when what's killing your drives is dropped passes and offensive pass interference, how exactly do you adjust for that?
I'd also include false start penalties and bad snaps as drive killers this year. Not a whole lot a head coach can do about that.
Then coach them better- in terms of offensive PI... and recruit better in terms of drops. Seriously. GT had one offensive penalty in the game... we had a bunch. Coaching. Recruiting is also coaching. Time to step it up- unless you want to keep losing home games to medicore teams.
I agree with you in general, but Tre Turner is a true freshman, and it would be really hard to recruit much "better" than him. (0.9273 composite rating on 247.) I know, coaches are accountable, yadda yadda yadda, but sometimes players are gonna drop catchable balls. Even NFL receivers do that.
Also, my original point stands. If you're admitting it's a larger "coaching" issue, what in-game adjustments are you saying Fuente and Corn should have made?
"Hey, Tre, next time, try not dropping the ball, mmmkay?"
Well if a quarter and a half of stagnant offense is Tre Turner's fault, then do nothing. If not, how about calling something other than a weak, scared QB draw on 3rd and 4 in a key drive? You are advertising to GT's DC that you have no confidence to make that play. Willis is not Lamar Jackson. How about "adjusting" by getting the ball out of Willis's hand and blocking GT like you did in the first Q?
We had 5 straight drives account for a total of 37 yards.
That is Tre Turner's fault?
I think we should be expect more of our coaches to get our players in a position to eek out more than 37 yards on 5 drives against one of the worst defenses we'll see all year.
Two of the five ended with a Tre Turner drop. One was killed by and offensive P.I. on Kumah. That's the majority of our non-scoring drives attributable to (excusable, IMO) execution errors. So how do the coaches put the players in a better position in those three drives?
Just for the record, that was a weak A$$ PI call on Kumah that will almost never get called. The defender initiated contact and Kumah simply engaged in response in order to create his break on the route.
Kumah was definitely put in a tough spot. The defender slowed down and also extended his arms. Not only that, but the flag came in from behind the play after Kumah had already gone out of bounds.
That quote continues and he includes that it was so frustrating because GT didn't change anything schematically
We had 28 points vs GT on only 47 plays. Would have pushed 50 on regular plays.
The UNC game was the bad one. We were quite good vs GT
Here's the problem with this ... we can play this game all day long, right? But the fact of the matter is, for all of the Hokies success in metrics like S&P+, we are #78 in the country in points per game.
If you really want to go there, why did we only score 35 points against an ODU program that has yielded these point totals?
The reason people are frustrated with the offense is that Fuente came in with the reputation of an offensive genius. And yet as we look at the product on the field, we are scoring fewer points this in season than in Leoffler's last season.
We're 43rd in the country in points per game.
The ODU game was an unacceptable offensive performance no doubt. 14 points in the first half was inexcusable. The defense was terrible, especially in the 4th quarter, but the whole second half likely plays out differently if we score 24-31 in the first half instead of 14.
Until we weren't. We have seen some good starts this year then nothing. Which reinforces your observations.
What myth? We have scored over 30 points THREE times in our last 15 games against P5 opponents.. 3... and 2 of those were 31 points to be exact. In an era of "offense" that is squarely mediocre. I don't care about SP numbers against Delaware. I really don't. Against the P5, we can't score more than 30 points most of the time.
That isn't how S&P+ works. At all.
Not caring about Delaware is built into those numbers much like QBR takes the competition's performance into account.
He was being hyperbolic I think. But the point about scoring 30 on a P5 squad only 3 times in the last 15 games stands. It hardly screams "prolific offense" especially given the kind of scoring production offenses are capable of these days.
Leg. My bad.
I get the S&p stats, and I get that they mean something. But at some point you have to score.
FSU: The offense scored 17 points.
W&M: The offense scored 62 points (W&M has one of the worst FCS programs in the country right now, 62+ should have been expected ).
ODU: The offense scored 35 points (ODU has two wins this season, the offense was atrocious that day).
Duke: The offense scored 31 points. By far the best performance of this season and possibly the 2017 season outside of the WVU game.
UNC: The offense scored 22 points, but they did nothing the entire game. The scores came early and late.
GT: The offense scored 28 points. The first three scores were in the 1st quarter. Then we went an ENTIRE game until we scored again, and that score came with 3:48 left in the game (garbage time).
Last season the offense started off fairly hot and then cooled down considerably as the season progressed. We score lots of points against bad teams, and not enough against good teams. So while the stats might indicate some improvement, and I would agree that the numbers look improved, there is very little consistency throughout a season and during the course of a game. As i stated above, I'd like to see us score more points.
Not a popular or easy decision, but I'd like to see cornelian relieved of play calling. Wether Fuente calls plays or we get a new OC, Corny just makes boneheaded and inexcusable calls. Not to mention we aren't playing with the tempo like we were supposed to. We might as well go back to pro style if we're not going to play fast
It actually seems like a very popular opinion around teh internets. I just think it also happens to be an unfounded and wrong one.
This might be sort of a problem with OCs who become head coaches. You can teach a protege OC the system vut you can't teach the in-game playcalling that the right guy actually has. Fuente/Cornelspring might not be the first; Brian Kelly at ND is the same way. When he is calling plays, ND will win. Otherwise, it's a roll of the dice.
If Corney gets fired, my number 1 choice to replace him would be Texas Tech's HC Kliff Kingsbury (if he also got fired). That dude fucks and shits out NFL QBs (Mahomes, Webb, Keenum, Manziel)
He also drove off a future Heisman winner and 1st overall draft pick Baker Mayfield. Our fanbase would get over that about as quickly as they got over Steph Curry (in other words, never).
Kendal Briles. Almost impossible but we'd score like freakin crazy
If Corn gets the ax, it had better be because Fuente is taking the playcalling back in his own hands.
It'd be something else to see Coach Foster take away the lunch pail from the defense like he did in 2006.
At least I think it was 2006...
True. Did anyone earn it last Thursday night?
What would be your guess?
If it has to go to somebody, maybe somebody on offense?
In 2006, Coach Foster took away the lunch pail, period. That's what I was calling for.
My guess would be the Lane Stadium turf as it it handed out the most punishment
Want to see:
1. Beat UVa
2. Keep bowl streak going
Likely to see:
No more wins. I predicted 7-5 before the season, but in hindsight that was optimistic.
1. Quincy Patterson.
2. Beat UVA
Some sign of improvement anywhere. Like the players are actually being developed and coached.
Qunicy Patterson getting a full or semi-full playbook. Not just run plays. Let's not completely waste this season and get him some real experience.
I'd love to win on black Friday too, but the streak has to end sometime...
To be fair, Ryan Willis probably looked the best against GT as we've ever seen him. I was really impressed with his play, especially with mistakes from his receivers basically killing three different drives. I couldn't have asked for more out of him.
I agree. I just don't think he's the future.
Well, no. He was the backup for a reason. You just mentioned wanting to see development, and I'm really pleased with the development I've seen in Willis since he became the starter. Also very pleased with the development of the OL in Fuente's three seasons. It's gone from probably our biggest liability to one of our better assets on offense.
I agree the OL is coming along since 2016, although I'm not sure I've seen a ton of improvement this year since FSU (UNC was pretty awful), but they did look great against GT for the most part. It's still frustrating how often the other team has an unblocked DL making the tackle because the OL doesn't know who to block, not because they got beat.
My development comment was focused on this season. Since the year started my untrained eye hasn't seen a ton of improvement.
Willis was certainly better last week than vs UNC. He's cleaned up the bad reads and snafus we saw against Duke and ND and he gives us a good shot to score.
Also I'd like Quillen to play more.
RW may have been the backup for a reason. I just haven't seen the reason yet. It is beyond baffling to me after seeing enough of RW why JJ was starting over him.
I know many on here seem to be indicating they have lost faith in Fu and staff. I am not one of those and think he will ultimately get it done. But the fact that he was starting JJ over RW is going to leave me scratching my head for a long time. You cant tell me the differences were not evident in practice. Hell you could see in the Spring Game that RW was a better passer.
I don't get this point repeatedly coming up.
RW has a good arm and I'm grateful he's been a good replacement.
But you look at this year's stats and JJ has better numbers: better rating and more yards per attempts.
Link to cfb stats for VT passing
OK....so let's get straight to the point. Who do you think is a better QB based off what you have seen on the field JJ or RW?
They both have different strengths and weaknesses. I think the receiving corps may have progressed more with JJ to this point while Willis has a better chance to bail you out on a play. I dont think the competition was particularly close in the eyes of the coaches this off season and that has to count for something as well.
If we base the evaluation on spring games, Hooker would have started last year.
RW and JJ have both played in games that count this year. So which is it JJ or RW in your opinion?
Well since they didn't play in the same games with the same game plans I don't really know how to draw any apples to apples conclusion. If you put a gun to my head I would side with JJ since that is what our millionaire expert coaches concluded originally. But, perhaps they would also choose differently knowing what they know now. I hope they were not as wrong on their preseason evaluation as some seem to want to conclude though.
JJ put up very mediocre numbers against P5 competition.
Willis didn't have the luxury of padding his stats vs inferior opponents this year.
Reference:
2017 JJ vs P5 - 211 ypg, 57.1 comp%, 1 TD per game, 0.8 INT per game, 123.03 rating
2018 Willis vs P5 - 266 ypg, 61.6 comp%, 2.25 TD per game, .75 INT per game, 152.63 rating
Along with the 'eye test' which leans very heavily toward Willis, I'm not sure what argument could be made for JJ at this point.
Willis #15 in latest QBR BTW
So you want to burn a year of eligibility in the name of the future? That makes no sense.
Might want to re-up on those redshirt rules.
What? He can play in 3 more games and keep his redshirt. I proposed that he play in the last 3 if we lose to BC.
I mean, you didn't propose that at all, you just said he should be playing. We have, hopefully, 5 games left, he can only play in 3 without burning his redshirt. I guess if you think he is the best QB to help us win now, then sure, throw him in, otherwise the idea that risking wins and a possible bowl appearance to get a couple more snaps worth of experience for someone who might be the QB of the future is an insane plan.
You are correct. I wrote that detail in another thread. Apologies. It would be insane to burn QP's redshirt. I also want us to aim higher than simply extending the bowl streak. If we can get QP actual experience this year, I don't see that as bad.
1) Better tackling
2) Better tackling.... this deserves to be said twice
3) Better play-calling
4) Accountability from coaches when it is clearly on the coaches.
5) Better route running and getting the ball quicker out of the hands of our QB/Willis. See WVU and Okie State who sometimes run the RPO and it just looks like they are able to get the ball to their WR's so much quicker than we do.
6) in game adjustments when needed.
7) ah fuck it.... better tackling.
8) No injuries
I want to win all four of our remaining games, all of which are very winnable, and I want to see energy, effort, emotion, and good fundamental blocking and tackling, all of which have been staples of our program for a long, long time. Play each play with a sense of urgency. Play with that lunch pail mentality that defines VT football, some of which has been lacking recently. And lastly, make the fans proud to be a part of VT football.
I want to see a clean pair of sheets at the end of the season. No more shitting the bed. I dont care if we get more than 1 (UVA) more win this season as long as they are close, well fought games with little to no braindead mistakes.
This is a young team. I count 21 freshmen, 21 sophomores, 10 juniors and 5 seniors on my depth chart. Let that sink in.
But, we have a good quarterback and great kickers so I want good things for November. I hope the GT loss brings a sense of urgency to practice and game time play. I attended the Duke and William & Mary game and saw good things so they got it in them. They can shut down a run game.
All are healthy (Hewitt and Rivers?). November is GO time. I want 4 wins but will settle for 2 to keep the bowl streak alive.
To your good kickers comment. I'd like to see Bradburn have a good game down the stretch. He hasn't had many impressive kicks this year. He rarely screws up though, so I can't complain too much.
Edit: I swear I was replying to Carolina Hokie
Yeah, that's all I want from the punter and LS'er, don't screw up or shank it.... which is my thoughts swinging any iron.
I want to see the defense generate some more turnovers. Outside of the end of the UNC game, they haven't been causing fumbles or interceptions. I think both stem from lack of consistent qb pressure. I just expect an LPD to ballhawk more.
Someone to step up on the dline and in the secondary and to see ladler actually learn to use his arms to tackle
We are having a down year. Our team is primarily underclassmen. Our defense lost nearly everyone that had experience.
So here is my reality check for angry fans. Take it, leave it. Agree, disagree. Hopefully it helps some of you that are questioning Fuente, Corn, Bud, recruiting, etc. to get a little perspective.
We have now entered into the week we play Boston College. BC has always been a tough, gritty opponent for the Hokies. They consistently have beef on OL that can grind and grind and grind. A punch you in the mouth type team. Plus fucking MattRyan....
However, we should pay attention to this week more closely and remember the meltdowns a lot of people were having 4 to 5 years ago about a man named Scot "Lefty" Loeffler. He saved our QB room and pulled off one of our most historic wins over OSU, and kept us bowling (barely but we made it). Yet, we struggled for 3 years and our offense drowned in what we believed was an overly complicated playbook and mystifying play calling.
Do you all remember the crazy amount of shade fans were throwing Lefty?
Well, this week we are playing against a BC team that is 6-2, 24th in nation rushing and 23rd in points scored. (VT is 64th and 83rd respectively) Lefty is calling winning games and AJ Dillion is a real danger to us. I expect him to be over 100 yards by 3rd quarter. I also expect that everyone here would like to have a 6-2 record and be 24th in nation on any offensive stat.
Now I wouldn't trade Fuente for Lefty, ever. But given time, and I suspect more autonomous control to run his offense, Lefty is succeeding in BC. Basically, Addazio is a dude, and he knows dudes need time to get the right dudes in place so that everyone is a dude at the right time and can become a team of winning dudes. That's just how Addazio rolls. He knows diamonds come from time and pressure. Lefty needed 3 years on a team that already had a quality head coach and good players and depth to build on.
We are not BC. We should be a better football program overall with more resources. However, when it comes to making winning programs it takes time people. Time. There are only a handful of coaches that come with automatic winning. Look at Harbaugh in Mich. It is not guaranteed for anyone. Especially for an up and coming coach who was last at Memphis.
We were not ever going to be a championship team in 3 years. Anyone that expected that was fooling themselves. Especially after the summer attrition we had. We won't be in 5 years either. VT is a 6 year window, and that is with the expectation that senior players are plentiful and have not jumped for NFL or been dismissed.
So... down the stretch I would like to see players cowboy up and get to 6 wins at least, beating loluva, and go bowling. But I would love to see fans come to grips with reality and see that a coach most of us lamented with vitriolic hyperbole is winning and could very well run it down our throats this weekend because he was given the time necessary to succeed. And that if we EVER want VT to be a powerhouse program we must play the long game and not have unrealistic views of reality that we can take shortcuts to success.
We have to choose our pony wisely, let it grow up to a full fledged race horse and start winning. That's the type of program VT is. Personally I still believe Whit has chosen wisely.
rant over
Bryan Stinespring fielded the 22nd best offense in terms of rushing yards and 25th in points per game in his 3rd year (2004). Given a star RB or 2 and a solid OL, all you have to do is not screw it up.
That's not to say they won't put up big numbers, but if they do it will be due to Dillon and a strong OL, not Loeffler.
haters gonna hate
He didn't start at BC with those players performing like that, and a lot of the comments against Lefty was that his play calling was too complicated and he didn't know how to use the talent he had correctly. I'm not saying he's a great OC just that fans are way too quick to pull the trigger of hate on coaches. Give them time.
Lefty left the program in a better place than he found it. I will always appreciate him for doing that.
I generally agree with your larger point on longer time frames for evaluation. I think it applies really well to Fuente.
I think you may have missed my point though. Both Loeffler's success at BC and Stiney's success in his 3rd year at VT are most likely examples of luck being confused with skill. For a book length discussion of this idea, see Taleb's Fooled by Randomness, which I think is one of the best books ever written on the subject of statistical inference.
It's not hate, it's just the inherent difficulty of trying to draw conclusions with a single data point without controlling for, well, anything. Neither of these guys are good OC's. Both put up good numbers based primarily on being lucky to have exceptional talent at some skill positions. That's all I'm saying. Loeffler will most likely revert to below average numbers once Dillon leaves, just like Stiney did. Either one of them putting up decent to good numbers with an exceptional back doesn't suggest anything to me about their skill.
I find these type of blanket statements inherently flawed. Any OC could win games with exceptional talent. So what? Saban sucked balls at Miami but rules college football from Bama. So he is not a good coach?
The problem with your argument, especially if your referencing Fooled by Randomness, is that you are generalizing actual accomplishment down to a perceived apples to apples dynamic which is never how things are in real life.
Lefty may have a down year next year but he is winning now. There are hundreds to thousand of unique data that influences that beyond his actual skill as an OC. Boiling it down to a generalized interpretation of his success is a flawed argument and is not what Taleb is trying to communicate IMO.
I would not make any of the claims you are saying I would make. I absolutely would not make the "perceived apples to apples dynamic" you reference. That you can't do that is directly related to my point.
You seemed to be making the argument that Loeffler is a good OC because his offense is good this year. I think there is a high likelihood that doing so is mistaking luck for skill.
My point in bringing up Stiney wasn't to prove that Loeffler was a bad coach--you can't do that with that type of example. It was simply to point out, using an example we are all familiar with, that a single season in the top 25 doesn't necessarily indicate anything about his skill.
If Loeffler continues to have above average success with varying levels of talent, then I am wrong.
/Edited to be slightly less of an jerk.
didn't see the first edit but definitely not reading it as being a jerk. no worries.
I am not saying he is good or bad. I am saying he was given time and started winning, despite the overwhelming criticism of him while at VT. He deserves credit for that and we should likewise give Fuente time to succeed.
You are saying his success is a product of random luck having fallen into exceptional talent, which I argue is overstated generalization because any OC could conceivably win with exceptional talent. You're expressing a randomness to his success based on your subjective perception of the talent he has. I am saying that many of the comments while at VT was against his ability to call a good game and use talent correctly, as well as having an overly complicated scheme. If he was really as bad as all that he wouldn't be winning at BC.
That's about it.
happy to disagree on that though. Respect your viewpoint.
I agree with Fernley.
His exceptional badness would overcome any randomness over time.
And let's talk about randomness while we're at it. Schools like BC and VT don't randomly end up with talent, because players don't go wandering about like zombies and play football wherever they happen to be standing when the season starts. Even that wouldn't be random as there are places in the country where football is more popular and that means more people play the sport.
Players have to be recruited. That's not random.
Players have to coached. That's not random.
In any given season there are X number of games with Y variables. Randomness suggests that there is no correlation (false or otherwise) when these two things are combined. That's the definition of randomness. The only time randomness can result in any thing that resembles order (one might take the formation of the Universe) is when there is an astronomically (literally in this case) high number of random events. There are not astronomically high numbers of random events in college football. In fact, it is quite contrary. Most of what happens is incredibly finite.
Randomness also does not result in reproducibility. You don't have enough trials to evaluate Loeffler when he's been solely in control of an Offense and has had a few years to get a good offensive line (not random), recruit good backs (not random) and work with a QB for an extended period of time (not random).
In fact the only thing that's random about Loeffler's time at VT would be Michael Brewer's broken collar bone and it's easy to see that didn't help him. Do you think VT has the same record if Brewer never gets injured in 2015?
Regardless the book is very focused on finance and finance does have enough random events by which people can be fooled. That's because finance (the stock markets) represent all events that occur with all companies represented by stocks.
Anyway. I'm with Fernley.
So I love this comment in all parts but do have to add in that yes loeffler has had three years so far and so has cornelson...not to say the offense looks bad because it clearly is not aided by a struggling defense
This is a good post but I'd point out that Loeffler is having success because his scheme fits BC (and Addazio). He had a lot of success with Addazio at Temple as well, but he was a terrible fit at Auburn with the player's from Gus Malzahn's scheme and the fans clamoring for that type of offense and VT was in the middle of an identity crisis on offense when he arrived as well (some fans wanted the old school, smash mouth i-formation football and some wanted the spread; I'm not sure Beamer really knew what he wanted either and the recruiting wasn't aligned to the type of offense we were going to run).
Typing that out made me realize that VT fans are still in the midst of an identity crisis on offense. People went berserk when we didn't line up under center and "pound it in" against Notre Dame, yet you also hear a very vocal group questioning why we can't run a high powered spread offense. Fortunately I believe the coaches have a plan for the offense and even if they aren't quite there yet, I'm hoping they feel comfortable enough to recruit to and execute that vision.
Sheer brilliance. I agree with every word.
However, for the sake of context, just to address this:
VT is 83rd in total points scored, but 43rd in scoring offense. The discrepancy comes from the fact that we're one of the few teams that had a game cancelled due to the hurricane.
whoops! bound to make a few mistakes mid-rant I guess. Thanks for clarification
You weren't wrong, that's just an important but not readily apparent distinction.
I also think that BC is benefiting this year from a weak Atlantic Division with no FSU or Lamar Jackson.
I definitely agree with the sentiment behind what you're saying and think we've hitched our wagon to the right horse, need to give him more than 3 years, etc. But let's take a look at BC's schedule before we start singing Lefty's praises. Their wins: Holy Cross, UMass, Wake Forest, Temple, Louisville and Miami. Only Miami and Temple have winning records and Wake is 4-4 and very much in that Duke/UNC/Pitt territory of the ACC most years. Obviously AJ Dillon is one helluva player and Anthony Brown has taken a step forward, but I'm not any more/less confident about this game than I am any other year (got my maroon and orange tinted glasses on probably). Sure, we just dropped a big stinker at home, we're thin on D, super young, yada yada yada, but Bud hasn't let Lefty have much success against us yet so I'm not ready to call this some sort of guaranteed L.
BC schedule is weak but they are winning more than us, who lost to a shite ODU team and a shite GT team so I'll give them credit.
definitely not throwing in the towel. Bud seems to have Lefty's number, so it will come down to execution. Defense needs to stop big plays from happening and the offense needs to score more to overcome the big plays that do happen. Like any other game. It can be done and I am going in expecting a win actually.
I agree on Loeffler and I when I suggested Beamer held back his play calling people went nuts. It's true though. When we needed to score Lefty's offenses scored. Then we want back to Beamer's offense when we "comfortable". The fact is we should have never taken our foot off the gas. I really people Loeffler did a better job of adjusting to the players he had. That's how McMillian ran for a 1000 yards. And let's be honest, if Michael Brewer doesn't go down our season looks way different and Beamer is probably still coach today. I'm not saying that's good or bad. I think he retired at exactly the right time.
I disagree on the six year window. Maybe four or five. Lefty left us with Ford, Bucky and Phillips. I don't think we have true replacement for those guys. *Maybe* Tre Turner.
The current state of our program has transfers (Willis and Hazleton) as our two most prolific offensive players . That should raise a red flag. Beamer's staff took plenty of heat (rightly so) for not recruiting well enough at QB that we needed Michael Brewer. JJ was a Lefty recruit and he stayed on. As much as people crap on JJ, I shudder to think what last season would have looked like without him.
As for Fuente's recruited QBs I have high expectations for QP II. Honestly, I think HH (bring it on, I know everyone thinks HH is Cam Newton or something) is a miss. QP II will pass him in the spring. You read it here first, Barring a devastating injury or multiple transfers HH will never start at VT.
Fuente has the makings of a great coach his resume speaks for itself but I fear he suffers from BLS (Beamer Loyalty Syndrome), where one see things that are not there (Stiney a great OC, O'Cain a great QB Coach and Shane a running backs coach of any sort). Go ahead and do the research on Cornelsen's background. I have. His resume is not impressive at all. If he didn't know Justin Fuente he'd still be coaching in D II. You can point to his time at Memphis but he was never the sole OC. His Co-OC was Darryle Dickey who is now the OC for TAMU. You can't tell me Cornelsen's next job is going to be at an SEC powerhouse, because it's not.
Every coach that made a major transformation had to make hard decisions with respect to their staff. I have done a lot of research on this recently. Saban did as did Dabo. We can pretend that being named Alabama or Clemson is all that is needed for success, but I have shown that is not true in previous posts. You need good coaching and you need to win games.
Six years would be far too long and will set us back in recruiting too far.
I am talking about a 6 year window to become a team that can challenge for Championship in the playoffs. I think you are interpreting that to mean 6 years to get to ACCCG.
It won't be 4. Especially not with this level of attrition. 5 will be the year we really challenge the ACCCG again. 6 is the year we can make a run. I don't see how this would impact recruiting at all.
Beamer valued stability and loyalty. He picked a guy he knew would follow his plan and never jump like Bustle did. We know how that ended up, but at the same time we also won a lot in those years.
For Fuente, he'll have to make his changes at some time. Every coach does. I don't think he has the loyalty problem that Beamer has though. Hell, you're the one that argued letting Galen Scott go was a huge challenge for Fuente when I said it wasn't because it was administrative decision at that point. So if you believe letting Scott go was such a big challenge for him then you should believe he can make other challenging decisions when required.
I will say that IMO Wiggins needs to move to RBs and Zohn back to WRs. I don't see the fundamentals and year to year improvements in our WRs under Wiggins.
I don't disagree with your overall point, but a few thoughts:
Lefty's system is a good fit at BC. Give him a good OL and RB and you've put him in a position to be successful. During his time at VT, he had neither. Maybe not fully his fault, but I never felt like he was able to modify the system to fit the personnel he had.
As for Fuente, I never expected this to be a championship team in three years. But I'm not sure that I agree that it was a six year window either. It may not be fair to compare us to other schools that have changed coaches because their situations are totally different, but at some point we have to look at the ROI. According to USA Today's database, Fuente is the 24th-highest paid coach. Is he delivering the 24th best result? There are a lot of names below him on the list whose programs are in better shape than VT right now. Hell, the combined salary of the USF and UCF coaches is over $1M less than Fuente's salary. We could save money by having one of them come in and lose to ODU.
The problem I have is not that we're losing, it's the way we're doing it. It's year three and we're seeing more discipline issues (on and off the field) than we did in years one and two. It's year three and the playcalling seems to be getting worse, not better. It's year three and we're even more thin at key positions like DT. It's year three and our recruiting results are about the same as they've been. It's year three and the one coaching hire he's made was... uninspiring. It's year three and we still shit the bed at least once each season.
What I want to see are clear indications of progress. It's one thing to lose a hard-fought game to a team that's just better. It's another to get abused by ODU or manhandled by GT (and had UNC's RB not fumbled while scoring the game-sealing TD, we'd have lost that game too, and been in FULL meltdown mode). I want to see a focus on execution, even if we're not talented enough to win at the point of attack. I want to see an entire game without a personal foul, unsportsmanlike conduct, or false start/offsides penalty. I want to see sound tackling. I want to see the offense run some tempo. I want to see the vaunted playcalling genius we were promised when the new staff was announced. I want to see Fuente reach into his $4M bag of tricks and pull out whatever coaching and leadership techniques he has to in order to get this team pointed in the right direction. In other words, even if we lose because we're not the best team on the field, I want to walk away thinking that at least we were the best coached team on the field that day. Because that's what gives me hope that it will be better tomorrow.
And for the love of all things holy, win the fucking game on 11/23.
We are in the midst of a massive youth movement. This happens every few years to almost every school across the country. Notre Dame had a young team in 2016 and went 4-8. In 2013 West Virginia had to replace majority of their 2-deep and went 4-8. Michigan State had a super young team in 2016 and went 3-9. Michigan was super young in 2017 and went 8-5 despite borderline elite recruiting. Alabama was unusually young in 2017 and almost didn't win the national championship. Unless you are a blue-blood, you're going to have years with an unusual amount of attrition which lead to disappointing results, undisciplined play, and frustrating decision making. This is just how CFB works, and trying to make judgments in the midst of a youth movement is a fool's errand.
You're conflating current record with program health. Step away from the losses, and we have an administration heavily invested in football, a recruiting ranking consistently in the top 25 with reasonable possibilities to improve, and a coaching staff with a proven track record of developing and deploying talent. If these results continue in years where a majority of the two-deep is upperclassmen, sure, let's run everyone out of town. But nothing that's happened this year is all that surprising or out of the ordinary for college football.
As frustrating as it is in the moment, long term prospects are what indicate a program's health, and our's haven't really changed from August.
mogwai hit the nail on the head.
I explained the 6 year window in a reply above. Think that is being misinterpreted.
But again I find comments like this:
Hell, give me the OC job a good OL and RB and I'll probably win more games than lose. So what? This seems to be a common argument everyone is using against him but it's a generalized blanket statement that can apply to anyone.
I am not trying to say Lefty is a great OC, just that people should consider relaxing the "I've lost faith in Fuente" comments because as your generalized statement suggests when given good players any OC can win. So let Fuente develop our young players and enjoy the wins when he does.
Fair enough. But what I was getting at was that Lefty is a good fit for BC, personnel- and culture-wise. Sure, anyone would benefit from having a good OL+RB -- it's like having too much money, right? But imagine if Lefty went to work for a team built to run the air raid offense. I don't think he'd be successful [*] even with a really good OL+RB. All I'm saying is I think he's more likely to be successful at BC than he was at VT.
[*] Successful in this context means that results match or exceed expectations; 9-4 isn't successful if you've got Alabama or Clemson's roster, for example.
Anyway, I haven't lost faith in Fuente (Cornelsen is another matter), but I'm starting to worry. I agree he deserves time, but I think 4 years is about where I draw the line. By then, if there's not a clear upward trajectory compared to his predecessor, then (IMO) we made the wrong hire. CFB averaged what, 8-5 his last five years? If CJF's average is about the same over four years (and at twice the salary), is it time to make a change?
So I'm with you & mogwai, let's see what happens next year. I just wish I saw more reasons to be optimistic about it.
Lest we forget Beamer was 2-8-1 in his SIXTH year here in 1992, the year before the bowl streak started. Granted his first few years, he was fighting through the Bill Dooley-caused Scholarship reductions, but still-think what we might have missed out on if VT had fired him after that year! I'm definitely in the "give them time" camp!
Edit-records for those first 6 years
1987 2-9
1988 3-8
1989 6-4-1
1990 6-5
1991 5-6 including a 38-0 loss to UVA
1992 2-8-1 won game 1 against JMU, Game 3 against Temple and tied NC State in Game 6 then lost 5 straight!
(Damn even back then we were playing East Carolina most years!(Life as a football independent!)
So overall the first six years Beamer was 24-40-1 (.369) --he ended up at 238-121-2(.663) meaning even including the last few down years-he went 214-81-1 (.730) (Take away the last four mediocre years (29-23 .558) and his record during the 1993-2011 was 185-58-1 (.758). Kudos to the administration for giving him the time to succeed-hope we are looking back in 20 years to a similar history!
Believe me, those of us who were there will NEVER forget it.
"RATS! YOU'RE NOT CHEERING HARD ENOUGH!"
Time and pressure, and a young coach from Murray State took us to the f-ing National Championship and put the whole school of VT on the damn map.
This is the damn truth.
But the situations each coach inherited were completely different. Beamer inherited an independent under NCAA sanctions. That's like trying to start a program from scratch. Feunte inherited a program with a few dings.
Which is why Beamer had such a tough stretch the first 6 years in Blacksburg, and Fuente went to the ACCCG in year 1. In turn Fuente took a dumpster fire that nobody wanted and turned them into winners in 3 years.
You're disproving your point.
This was meant for skippy's post
You can't even begin compare the state of VT football when Beamer took over to that when Fuente took over.
Did Beamer have nationwide brand name? Top 25 facilities? A history of winning and a 20+ year streak of bowl appearances? An electric fanbase? The top P5 academic conference? Top 50 athletic revenues?
Saying 'Beamer had a losing record in year six' means absolutely zero in 2018.
I wont settle....I want 4 wins and not nail biters but wins where we dominate and the W was never really in question the whole game.
I want players playing with passion on defense and swarming the ball. I want the Defense to not be happy until the other team has net negative yards of offense
I want to win the coastal and beat UVA into a pile of goo
I like the way you think and would like to see the same thing.
I had a dream last night that I sat down with Bud Foster for a little dinner and a chit-chat. I asked him about the defense and he told me that it's not going to improve for the rest of the season. I was shocked. He said that this team needed a full off-season. At this point they're just doing everything they can to get the players somehow ready to play but asking for them to learn new things is apparently too much.
So I would normally say that I want to see the defense progress over the rest of the season. But that might be a big ask.
So FFS, just don't lose to UVA.
2 wins would be nice so we could go bowling but I do not see that in the cards. 0-4 would not suprise me at this point with how poorly we are playing on D...
Well, obviously...
Hopefully we get at least two more (ideally with one being against UVA) to keep the streak(s) going.
Otherwise I'd like to see these games not get away from us. Feels like we've had a lot of situations where the game has turned on a play or two then spiraled.
Ohh, and tackling. Improved tackling would be nice.
I wanna beat UVA and see bowl streak continue. I want to see enough grit and fight from this team to make me feel way better about next year than I do right now.
Beat UVa.
Make a bowl game.
No more stupid penalties.
Show progress that gives us hope for a much better 2019.
Like what heck are we talkin about?
Run the Dang ball!!!!!
Get to a bowl game, please beat all these chump teams.
Better offense. Syracuse go theirs with Babers.. no they don't win every game, but he is giving them the offense they wanted- they move up and down the field. I thought that's what we were going to get with Fuente, but on a critical 3rd and 4 against GT in the first half, we got a desperate QB draw again. His offense is not ranked in the 100's - I give him that, but its not been consistently good, either. Let's see it improve down the stretch.
Our offense is 25th in S&P+. That's a 75 spot improvement in his third season.
I don't care about S&P. I care about explosiveness, scoring points, and winning games. Babers put up 52 on NC State. Don't care what their SP is... That logic just lost the world series for the Dodgers- again- as their spreadsheet failed them. I want to be able to outscore GT at home if we have to- not have 4 straight 3 or 4 and out series and not go turtle shell on 3rd down. Dont care about SP because that is not showing on the field. I can find an advance metric thats says Im brad pitt too. Results on the field please. Not needed a prayer drive to score 22 on mighty UNC.... how about that?
LOL @ the idea that Alex Cora and the Red Sox didn't have just as many spreadsheets and analytics as Dave Roberts and the Dodgers. That's just plain silly.
This hate for S&P+ and metrics that tend to be actually decent predictors of future success and instead saying "just score points" feels a WHOLE LOT like "get off my lawn" type rhetoric. I'm not sure if that's what you're going for, but that's how it comes across.
Also, I'd very much like to see an advanced metric that shows you are Brad Pitt.
OK, so ping me when Offensive S&P stats for VT translates into being able to score more than 30 points against power 5 teams. let me know when the 2 translate. Appreciate it.
Not having as good of players lost the Dodgers the World Series.
Disagree... they had a host of all stars, a hall of fame ace, and won 92 games. They had plenty of good players. One of them- Cody Bellinger fell victim to the spreadsheet, and watched another team celebrate on his field. IIWII. When the VT offensive S&P numbers translate to being able to move the ball on a bad UNC defense or score more than 30 against GT once over a 10 year span, I'll be happily enlightened. Until then, we have trouble scoring points on P5 teams. IIWII
The Red Sox won 108 in a much better league. The dodgers didn't fall victim to a spreadsheet, they lost to a better team...
You're stance here is even more incorrect here than usual. You choose weird hills to die on.
The Sox laid waste to baseball this year. For most of the year, they were on pace to break the record for total wins in a season, and if Sale hadn't been hurt for the second half, they probably would have. Even more impressive than what they did in the regular season is how relatively easy they made it look in the postseason.
3-1 over the 100 win 2017 AL runner-up Yankees outscoring them 27-14
4-1 over the 103 win defending WS Champion Astros outscoring them 29-21
4-1 over the 92 win back-to-back NL Champion Dodgers outscoring them 28-16
They only lost 1 road game the entire postseason, and that only came because Kinsler royally screwed up in extras in Game 3 of the World Series.
The Dodgers just weren't a good enough team. They ran into a buzzsaw and got cut down. Anyone from the NL would have, and really, even the best the AL had to offer did. Boston was just that good this year.
Boston also played their best players in the playoffs regardless of deep righty/lefty analystics. Amazing.
And it really didn't matter who LA played, they all struggled against the pitchers that Boston had. They're a team that relies on the long ball to score. They're an all or nothing offense that lived and died via the long ball. Even when the guys that LA sat were in, Boston was able to neutralize the batters around them, and minimized their threat.
Boston, on the other hand, did its damage this postseason by getting guys on base and knocking them in. For the most part, when they hit their homers, they were bringing multiple people in with them while LA was hitting solo shots. The guys LA didn't bat against lefties were high strikeout players who could mash dingers. They needed guys who could get on base, and they're not really built for that.
LOL. The Dodger's lost... they overused analytics in this series- any baseball man will tell you that. And how bout dem Oakland A's? eh? They have a bunch of analytics world series championships... no real ones though. It's overrated. Human's perform different under pressure. A july hit is not just as important as a late october hit with a title on the line- its not. THAT is a stupid hill to die on.
The Dodgers lost because they didn't have as good of players. You can play Muncy and Bellinger, doesn't matter. Took them 18 innings to get a win.
I think you're missing the point... our offense is improving year over year. Maybe not at the speed you'd like, but it's improving.
When did everyone on this board get so scared? We're talking about going 6-6 and hoping UVA doesn't win the Coastal. We stood toe to toe with the number 3 team in the nation the entire first half and if we didn't check out at half time, that could have been our game.
This team is talented. It's young. It's prone to mistakes. But I am expecting 4 more god damned wins.
all of this
I got blasted during the preseason when I said 6-6 could be realistic with as much as we need to rebuild.
At this point I would love to be 6-5 and keep the bowl streak going. I would take the bowl streak over beating UVA. Do I want both, yes. But the Bowl streak is more important to recruiting.
Meant to be a reply to an above comment
One positive that I would like to see for the rest of the year- When we were down close to the goal line against GT, Fuente put Willis under center!!! I was happy with the outcome, and with us not having a hand off moment as we had against ND! I am looking for positive outcomes for the remainder of the year!
Hopefully Bud is running some tackling drills for the defensive squad for the upcoming duel with the big back from BC.
No more four-hour stomachaches !!!
Offense: I want to see the O-line continue to play as a unit, keep Willis's uniform clean, and do a little better run blocking. I want to see the receivers run the correct routes and catch any ball that hits them in both hands (yes, I know Tre Turner is a freshman and I wouldn't have caught them either). And no silly penalties.
Defense: I want the D-line to look stout against the run and get some pressure on passes. I want to see the LBs make hard tackles at or near the line of scrimmage. I want to see the DBs on top of their assignments and in position to make plays. And no silly penalties.
Most of all, I want to see everyone working hard, paying attention, cheering for their teammates, backing each other up, focusing on the next play.
An offense that isn't so bipolar - Numerous times this year we've looked really good then it goes missing. This could be series to series, quarter to quarter or even half to half.
Yeah the defense is struggling but most of us knew this was going to happen. What we didn't expect is barely putting up points on the offensive side of the ball. 24.3 points vs the last 15 P5 teams isn't going to cut it especially when you've got a young defense trying to learn on the fly.
Scoring offense (includes non P5 games) has gone down every year: 28th (34.9pts) 58th (28.2 pts) and now 68th (27.2pts)
SOS has gone down every year: 20th 29th & 49th
Part of me thinks it is unfair to assign blame to the offense when defense is the clear glaring weakness. However, I think the offense has more room for improvement with the current roster. If we have to win in a shootout, so be it.
Blaming the defense for the offense being bad seems to be scraping pretty hard at the bottom of the excuse barrel.
The team isn't good. The offense has under-performed and is contributing to the team not being good. You're not going to kill anyone by saying it.
Not putting the full blame on offense that would be laughable. However expecting them to look much better than they do isn't a lot to ask for.
Defense is a different animal. Guys look to be in the right places but tackling looks foreign to some of these guys.
I agree. I would compare the defense to D students getting D's while the offense is B students getting Cs.
Your 2018 numbers seem wrong. Cfbstats.com has our scoring offense as 32.1 ppg, good for 43rd.
William and Mary doesn't count in the rankings I pulled as they're FCS school.
That's odd. Your 2016 and 2017 numbers seem to include our FCS opponents from those years. Unless eliminating them actually doesn't change our average ppg, which would be weird.
I'll take a peek tonight and see what's up.
I just checked and that's exactly what it is. We scored almost exactly our season average against our FCS opponent from each year, so eliminating them doesn't change the mean. We scored way more than our average against W&M, and have only 7 total results thus far vs 14 and 13 respectively, so it really skews the data when it's eliminated.
A sign of life and aggressiveness from everyone. Also, coaching that does not stink and inhibits growth. We are turning 3 and 4 starts into 2 and 3 stars = regression. I have never seen such an embarrassingly display of effort, scheme and coaching than last Thursday, except on rare occasions from FCS teams playing FBS schools and in high school sports. Truly pathetic.
4-0, with every game being a repeat of either FSU or Duke
1-0. 1-0. 1-0. 1-0.
Followed by:
1-0 in a 3OT thriller, during which Dabo finally goes full-out Woody Hayes and is not only ejected from the game, but is banned from college football for life. (I kid. Sort of.)
1-0.
A gal can dream, right?
effing endless up votes for this....
I want to see some heart.
AND SOME GODDAMNEDMOTHERFUCKINGTACKLING!!!
I think this fan base needs wins in each game. Doesn't matter how ugly or by how much, they need to win out to stop these boards from imploading.
What I want, is to win at least 3 of 4, keep the bowl streak alive, and beat uva. The bowl streak matters way less to me than the Commonwealth Cup, but would love to see both stay standing.
This is where my ignorance of X's and O's comes in, but I would like to see something change from Foster & Co. on the defensive side of the ball. It feels like teams are consistently beating us or magically finding these "brand new wrinkles" to capitalize on. Need to see something change from him.
Less doorknob humping
A NOONER for a bowl game just to piss off the fan base one more time this year.
Bowl Streak
Beat UVA
See Quincy Patterson play a whole lot in the last 3 games (for his redshirt to stay on)
I don't want to see fair weather fans like the ones that leave ODU games at half time because they are down 10 points. I want to see fans cheer on their team the full game regardless of outcome. Recruits don't want faithless fans.
Ummmm...I don't think recruits want to play for teams that lose to ODU. Fixing one of these fixes all the others.
Exactly. There is a one-step process for improving the morale of the fan base.