This season is really setting up for a strong Coastal Chaos finish.
Per ESPN FPI, here are the odds for ACCCG:Clemson-UVA, 40.4%Clemson-VT, 27.5%Clemson-Miami, 15.6%Clemson-Pitt, 8.1%Clemson-GT, 6.0%BC-UVA, 1.0%all others, < 1%— 🎃Haunting of Hale House👻 (@ADavidHaleJoint) October 29, 2018
Given how tightly clustered S&P+ pegged the division in the preseason, I shouldn't have been so blind to that.
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Live look at the ACC Coastal race.
Close, but more like this
You're giving the league too much credit; those cars are hitting way too hard to be ACC Coastal Teams. That's why I went with the slow, confusing, 100% avoidable scenario.
IF UVA is in the ACCG then that means they've probably broken the streak. Our only temporary saving grace would be for Buzzketball to rub their faces in the dirt ala UMBC.
Eh, there's plenty of ways for us to beat UVA but for them to advance to the ACCCG anyway. Most obvious scenario has them 6-2 with losses to us and NC State, and us at 5-3 with losses to GT and 2 of BC, Pitt, and Miami.
Alternatively, we could end up in a 3 (or more) team tie at 5-3 each, and there are a bunch of different scenarios that would result in UVA still going despite losing to us.
I'm working on a script that'll calculate all of the different possible outcomes in the Coastal (right now there are 32,768), and who goes to Charlotte in each of them, and the odds of each outcome (based on S&P+ instead of ESPN's FPI, but otherwise probably similar numbers to what is in the above tweet). Should be done within the next couple days.
If UVA is in the ACCCG, say hello to the fourth consecutive championship for the Clemson Tigers.
It's highly improbable that any team from the coastal keeps that game close.
If
UVAany ACC team is in the ACCCG against Clemson, say hello to the fourth consecutive championship for the Clemson Tigers. FIFYWe are working our way toward the darkest timeline
This is probably one of the tensest Novembers I can remember as a Virginia Tech fan.
Just go 6-5 and beat UVa. If we win the Coastal, that'd be incredible. If we beat Clemson in the ACCCG, I'll drink two rails in one night.
I think I'm more likely to drink 2 rails in one night if we lose.
If we beat Clemson in the ACCCG, bring on Bama. /s
We want Bama*
*In basketball
We already blew our chance last year
We'll probably get another shot this year at least.
2012, 2014, and 2015 would like a word...
At this point in 2012, we were 4-4, and promptly lost our next 2 games to Miami and FSU. Had to claw our way to an OT win against BC and a 3-point win against UVA that was blown in classic TimeCop fashion just to get bowl-eligible.
At this point in 2014, we were 4-4 and lost to BC. Got a 1-point win before the 0-0 Wakeyleaks game made UVA a must-win for a bowl (spoiler alert: we won, but it was another close one at 24-20).
At this point in 2015, we were 3-5, fresh off a 4-OT loss to Duke. Our bowl hopes were bleak, especially with 3 of our last 4 games on the road. As fate would have it, we dropped Frank's home finale to UNC but won all 3 road games, including yet another heartburn-inducing game against the Hoos, this one ending up 23-20.
All please read this. We've been through the fire before.
Play with fire enough, and you're bound to get burned.
It's ridiculous to believe that UVA will never again beat VT. It's going to happen. It may be this year. It may be next. But it's going to happen. That doesn't mean that when UVA fields a team that is actually decent we should all shudder in fear. They are playing good football right now. Not great, but good. Their marquee win is against a team that has now lost 3 games. They haven't beaten a ranked opponent this year and have lost to two unranked teams. They may very well end the season with only 2 losses, but they will be batting well above their average to do so. UVA is playing and executing above their talent level right now. We are not. We've got room to improve, they are due a game that brings them back to their average. Look at the rosters and the talent. Bring them on. They may beat us, but if they do it's because they played very well and we shit the bed again. We are young and are due for some late season maturing. It's not playing with fire, it's playing the game. Buckle up.
Honestly, if a loss to UVa makes us take a serious hard look at how this program is being run and make some serious fundamental changes that steers it back in the right direction, I'd be willing to take it. We have always had some excuse to fall back on to why our program was still in good shape, despite watching ourselves fall behind the college football powers nationally and internal to the ACC. Be it ACC titles, Coastal Titles, 10 wins, the UVa streak, or the bowl streak, we always had some kind of virtual teddy bear that allowed us to sleep at night. We're long overdue for a very serious introspective and internal audit where we legitimately be honest with ourselves on where we stand and what it will take to get to where we need to be, and perhaps ripping all of those bandaids off might be the impetus to make that finally happen.
I really thought that game in 2014 was when the streak was going to end. When they scored that go-ahead touchdown late, that was probably the darkest feeling I've ever had as a VT football fan. Thank God for Bucky Hodges. With that being said, I'm more nervous about the game this season than I've been since probably 2007 when it wasn't really even about the streak at that point.
I disagree. This is the first time that UVA has looked really good. Way better than VT. Even though those were close games, i always felt we were rightfully the favorites going in. Now they look pretty great and we look like shit. Because of that i think this is the tensest its been in forever.
I disagree with the "really good" description. They're just not a dumpster fire this year. That's all. They've won the games they should have won, and they really haven't been challenged.
UNC is a dumpster fire, and Duke doesn't have an offense... like, at all. Miami has historically struggled with Charlottesville. NC State is overrated, and UVa got beat pretty good by those guys. Indiana is not very good either. I'd argue that the B1G is about as weak as the ACC is this year.
Ehhh. Have you watched them play?
UVA is the most fundamental, disciplined, consistent team in the Coastal, despite their gross lack of talent. They are much more than simply "not being a dumpster fire."
Their "gross lack of talent" should have them squarely in the "dumpster fire" category. Their strong fundamental play and discipline is what redeems them from that fate.
"Not a dumpster fire" sounds like an accurate-enough description to me.
Nah, they are a good team. We are a dumpster fire. There really isnt any reason to not have them pegged as a good team. I guess when we get blown out by miami it will become more apparent. And I actually think they have better players than we do right now. At least their can execute fundamental football actions like tackling.
calling UVA a good team is a gross exaggeration. They're decent, which can be confused for good when you're comparing UVA to their previous seasons.
Also when you're comparing them to other 2018 Coastal teams.
Compared to the rest of the country and ACC which is clearly down across the board, they are good.
This is a really, really good point. I definitely remember just how mediocre we were during these years and how close we were to 1.) not making it to a bowl game and 2.) barely pulling out wins against UVA. But for me, this year feels so different than those years and I can't quite figure out why. I think maybe I was spoiled by Fuente's successful first years and now that we are 4-3 it feels like a lost season, when, really, it's pretty much where we expected to be.
Part of what's throwing us off this year is that we missed a game.
I for one am not tense because I have no more eff's to give at this point.
Preview of me going into December because of this team:
Just a minor set back for major comeback
BAG always coming through with the inside info! /s
You can't have an epic come-from-behind comeback unless you're way behind
Just try to bring some humor around here....
via GIPHY
I'm just saying, if we miss a bowl, lose to UVa, and see the Hoos win the Coastal all in the same year, in Year 3 of Fuente...
Right or wrong, the amount of frustration that will permeate throughout this fanbase will make next year a Do Or Die for the Fuente Era at VT. These coaches could do themselves a lot of favors by getting this ship righted over the next few weeks.