This year our young defense has clearly struggled. After reflecting on the GT loss, something I found interesting was how often opponents seemed to have played different starting QBs or ran a different scheme than we were expecting. This occurred in 4 of 7 games:
- ODU - expected Steven Williams (So.) but started Blake LaRussa (Jr.)
- Duke - expected Quentin Harris (Jr.) but started Daniel Jones (Jr.)
- North Carolina - expected Nathan Elliott (r-Jr) but started Cade Fortin (Fr.)
- Georgia Tech - expected TaQuan Marshall (Sr.) but started Tobias Oliver (r-Fr)
Even Notre Dame started their younger QB Ian Book (r-So.) over their former start Brandon Wimbush (r-Jr.), but this change was made 2 weeks prior to our matchup so not a day of or game-time change.
We won 2 of those 4 matchups. But I wonder how much this has gotten our guys tripped up and unable to adjust. They've got limited time for our young defense to study up on their next opponent, only to see something completely different on gameday. With the exception of GT, where I think Paul Johnson was saving his new blocking scheme just to screw with Bud Foster, I don't think these QB switches have had anything to do with us. Just coaches moving to younger/better players when the starter hasn't been performing. But it's interesting that it has happened in a majority of games we've played.
Comments
I've been thinking about this and how it's strange how many times it has happened with us.
I think odu was the only one where it was a real difference maker. I can't help but think we would have held Williams just fine, kind of like last season. Instead larussa started making some plays and really energized their team and he ended up having an insane game against us. Then they crashed back to earth after beating us, sigh
I'm not immune to the conspiracy theory that ODU put all of their eggs in the basket of beating VT, and that included hiding their backup QB. They had already played three games, and fully knew what they had at QB. Barring injury, one series into the game with us shouldn't have changed anything. They should have either been able to make that decision prior to kickoff, or at least wait a little further into the game if it was getting out of hand for them.
I don't know if the Duke QB switch affected us too much, because Jones was the starter at the beginning of the season, and somehow came back incredibly soon after a broken collarbone. I guess it's just pure dumb luck that he healed up in time for our game. Just like it's pure dumb luck that we keep facing so many backup QBs. It reminds me of the season where we lost the first 10 coin tosses.
It was ODFUCKINGU. Not buying anything other than the fact that the Hokies should have stomped them into the ground.
ODU just switched QBs. LaRussa has been the QB since, williams is now redshirting.
Exactly. What did they see in that one series of our game that they hadn't see all offseason or the first three games to make their decision to switch QBs?
Probably that unlike last year we weren't stopping the run with only the front 4. So why not try something different?
So you are saying that we can beat the North Carolina teams when they change their starting QBs. Maybe it has to do with NC2VT movement.
I think there's something to this.
With a young defense when the switch to a QB that wasn't studied you can't turn the young defensive players and say, "Hey. Remember last year when we played (some other opponent that was similar)? We need to to do that but instead of doing do this." Those conversations are impossible because those events never happened. Almost all human learning is built off of forming relationships in your head and then recognizing similarities or differences. When you have no reference point you can't "adjust".
I doubt BC goes with a different QB this game (not Loeffler's style).
Let's see how the young defense performed when in each of these instances.
ODU's Larussa was not similar to either Deondre Francois (Larussa can actually complete difficult passes) or W&M's QB.
Duke's QB was probably more similar to Larussa and the team did okay against him.
UNC was all over the place. They broke some huge plays with a QB that resembled Larussa in some respects.
GT is just... GT...
Sometimes looking at Adjusted QBR ratings can be helpful because QBR changes as data about past opponent's performances gets updated. Let's check out the QBR for VT's opponents this season.
Deondre Francois: Season 47.5 vs VT 27.0 VT WIN
William and Mary QBR not available. VT WIN
Blake Larussa: Season 58.6 vs VT 82.7 VT Loss
Daniel Jones: Season 69.9 vs VT 51.2 VT Win
Ian Book: Season 77.7 vs VT 70.7 VT Loss
Nathan Elliott: Season 62.0 vs VT 78.3 VT Win
Cade Fortin: Season 53.6 vs VT 54.3
Tobias Oliver: Season 74.3 vs VT 67.2 VT Loss
Antony Brown: Season 58.1
Kenny Pickett: 57.1
Malik Rosier: 65.9
N'Kosi Perry: 46.7
Bryce Perkins: 58.8
Given Anthony Brown's adjusted QBR for the season I would say we have a chance in this game. Most QB's performed similarly or worse vs. VT than their season rating. The glaring exceptions are Blake Larussa who's QBR vs. VT was almost 42% better than his season average and Nathan Elliot who's QBR was about 26% better.
Again, GT is a wild outlier. So I'm not really looking at that number hard but if you look at VT's performance vs. Oliver you can see his QBR is lower because of a lack of passing success.
If we consider ODU a fluke (which we should) it would seem VT wins vs. QB's with a QBR lower than 70. There is not a single QB left not the roster that ranks that high. Rosier's number is probably still inflated a bit given that Miami has played Savannah State (Rosier QBR 96.2) Toledo (Rosier QBR 95.0). Perry's numbers are also inflated by playing FIU where is QBR was 92.9. Both of their QBRs came down to earth vs. ACC competition.
None of these games are a sure shot and none of them will be easy wins but they are winnable.
If fundamentals weren't a major problem with this defensive unit, I might tend to think you are on to something here. But they are just plain bad no matter who they are playing.
I could be convinced of the opposite tbh. This is a young defense that has a hard time doing anything. Throw a small wrinkle like a QB change, and they are limited in how they can react.
To be clear, I'm not suggesting that it would change any result; it's just one more variable for a young defense to deal with.
Curse of the backup QB
I know its wet everywhere, and I know its been raining for a bit this afternoon/evening, but it doesn't appear that LOLUVA's field drains at all.
Kinda like the James Summers ECU game... and he was the backup's backup.