Well... If you are looking at ESPN QBR he's good for 15th in the nation. I don't know if that squares up with a detailed analysis for his play or the "eye test".
I tend to like numbers and also believe they are more reliable than my own observations. Would I have said he's #15 based on watching him? No. Probably not. I would say that he does a good job. The numbers say he's way better than my eyes say he is.
If he keeps it up or keeps improving the rest of the month could b pretty good. Let's see how his overall rating squares vs his performances in each of the games in which he made an appearance. I will list raw and adjusted. The adjusted number takes into account the quality of the opponent.
W&M: 97.8/92.2. His adjusted is lower than his raw because W&M is not great.
Old Dominion: 86.8/74.3. Same for ODU.
Duke: 92.2/95.0. In this case his adjusted is higher because Duke's defense isn't horrible.
Notre Dame: 41.1/66.0. Bad performance against a good D adjusted up.
UNC: 74.0/74.2.
GT: 81.3/74.6
As expected his worst game was against ND. Overall his performance is pretty respectable and inline with his 2018 QBR of 78.4. Overall that means Ryan Willis is a pretty damn good QB.
Let's see how he closes out the season.
Comments
Willis has been a bright spot this season, and he certainly isn't the problem right now.
QB, WR and LB are the only positions where we look really good, long-term, in my opinion.
OL and TE too I'd say
Counterpoint - Willis is definitely a big problem right now. Poor execution overall, inconsistent throwing the ball, and it is 50/50 at best whether he makes the correct give/pull call on a zone read. He is also all over the place emotionally and not in a "Brett Favre plays like the game like a kid" kind of way. More of like a "Phillip Rivers is a d-bag and freaking out again" kind of way. His inconsistency is a big part why our offense struggles to put together 4-solid quarters.
I was never high on JJ, but watching Willis' inconsistency gives me a whole new appreciation for what a solid game-manager like JJ can accomplish with safe efficiency.
Not sure if you've ever played any sports at the collegiate level but 90% of these kids have that d bag aura/ quality about them. I'll say this Brewer had the same type of attitude but the stories never really got out. Moving on from that whole subject though.
Really not sure how many of these are actual reads vs called runs to look like a read. Feel like if I see a Guard/Tackle pull then there is no way it's supposed to be a read play. Not saying Willis has done a great job but peeking at stats he's only 107 yards off JJ total from last year with 57 less carries AVG 3.8 yards a rush. Willis isn't going to be a super mobile QB regardless.
Willis is just as inconsistent as JJ was but sporting a 13-4 TD/INT ratio with a Passer efficiency rating of 139.8. JJ was 135.2 last year for reference. Issue is Willis is now starting to take the same big hits JJ took last year and having to peel himself off the ground snap after snap. Willis is getting the same happy feet & not stepping into throws knowing his OL is whiffing blocks and RB is not picking up blitzes at all.
Not well enough for me not to root for QP.
But well enough.
Just...take the easy stuff man, and throw it away if it's going sideways.
And no more fumbles on center exchanges or hand offs, dammit.
I just want to point out, that if anything his stats are probably underrated as he didn't get significant playing time against cupcake teams, which most Div 1 quarterbacks get to do. By the time he got the starting nod, we were already beginning the meat of our schedule.
TUA AINT PLAYED NOBODY PAUL
HAS HE EVEN COMPLETED A PASS IN THE 4th quarter!!
This is my favorite stat of the season
We held GT to 0 passing yards #DBU
This cannot be stated enough.
This is not my favorite stat of the season
Who the hell is Paul?
One of these is Paul...I'll let you figure out which one it is
It's Pawwwwl.
what the hell is Ted Cruz doing on espn?
One thing I will say about Willis, he appears to be progressing. Which is more than I can say for much of the team. I'm fine with his ability. But he tended to make some terrible decisions at times. It seems he's been getting better about that. Or I've just been progressively more inebriated. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Edit: Holy redundancy Batman. It seems I am inebriated now.
Came here to say this. Against GT, Willis looked light years ahead of how he looked coming in against ODU. I've been really pleased with his development.
Need to see improvement on slants. Not as good on that route as JJ and it's limiting RPO
Yes. There are a couple of passes JJ was REALLY good at.
JJs running also limited the RPO
Without looking at any stats I'll put it this way: after watching him for several games I don't automatically assume we're going three-and-out when Willis has the ball. I got to that point with Josh Jackson by the end of October last year and he never did anything to convince me otherwise before he went down in the ODU game.
Your problem is comparing LAST years team to THIS years team.
Last years team was Team Cam Phillips on O and the 11 dwarves. This year Ryan actually has a lot more weapons to help him out with to help him make him look good.
Regarding this year? I still think our O is more potent when JJ is there - because we have a lot more options at offense; we can actually run an option play, for example.
People act like JJ didn't play this year. He played what we now know to be a terrible FSU defense and failed to move the ball at all outside of the first drive, and failed to keep pace with ODU before he got injured. He had 2.5 games wih these "great improved weapons" everybody keeps trying to discredit Willis for having and he really didn't look any better than last year.
VT was tied and was driving when JJ got hurt, but don't let that distract you from your narrative.
And there was improvement this year.
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YDS/A TD INT RAT
Ryan Willis 121 204 1539 59.3 7.54 13 4 139.8
Josh J. 36 58 575 62.1 9.91 5 1 170.3
Of course he played this year, but here's a fact: Coaches trust JJ more because he actually gets the offense and doesn't just stare at Hazelton as his 1st through 3rd receiver.
I'll take Cam and JJ for 9 wins and two streaks extended please Alex.
8/10
Posted these stats in a different thread. I think the 'gun slinger' and 'not being careful with the ball' comments are fairly overblown.
2017 JJ vs P5 - 211 ypg, 57.1 comp%, 1 TD per game, 0.8 INT per game, 123.03 rating
2018 Willis vs P5 - 266 ypg, 61.6 comp%, 2.25 TD per game, .75 INT per game, 152.63 rating
But 2018 stats vs 2017 stats are not fair comparisons. The receivers this year are WAY BETTER.
We got a Cam Phillips?
Our receiver core is far better this year I think JJ would've done much better this year with guys like Hazelton
Yes. Damon Hazleton. Statistically Hazleton is actually better.
Hazleton is a better receiver than Cam was, IMHO (not to take anything away from Cam). Given the choice between the two, I'd take Hazleton.
I don't know that we can make that assertion so strongly. We have a much deeper and more talented WR group this year, but they're dropping way too many well-thrown (or at least well enough) balls. I'm sure we can put some of the blame for that on Willis's lack of touch (he seems to only have one velocity setting on that shoulder-cannon), but when the WR can get his hands on the ball, he should be able to reel it in. I saw way too many drops in that second half this weekend to proclaim this WR corps is way better than the 2017 version.
And I can point at Willis' career stats to show that he's in a far worse position than JJ's career stats. Don't care that the games were at Kansas, they still happened.
Hell, why should we be fully informed and understand the context. Just give me a stat to prove my point!
You mean like people pointing to Willis' stats this year vs J.J.'s last year when Willis has a better supporting cast this year?
VT17 - KU16 >>> VT18 - VT17
while I agree the 2018 WRs are overall an upgrade from 2017, the comparison is still relateable (same offense, OC, similar set of receivers). The decision to include KU's stats, however, just makes the comparison completely untenable, as there is nothing that relates between the variables of 2015/16 KU and the variables of 2017 VT.
Okay... Based on what? Receiver by receiver how are we not better at the position?
Little confused. We are either on the same page or you accidentally included a "not" in your question. But to answer your question, the 2018 WR composition of Hazelton, Grimsley, Turner, Kumah and Savoy (1600 yds in 8 games) is better than the 2017 composition of Phillips, Savoy, Kumah, Carrol and Murphy (2000 yds in 13 games).
What it really boils down to is Hazelton + Grimsley > Phillips + Murphy. Everyone else is still on the team.
via GIPHY
My take Willis has a strong arm that can make any throw but his ability to read a RPO or move on from his first read to his second is lacking. In the BC game the first TD he threw into tight coverage on the left when 85 broke wide open in the right. There were other instances where I noted he threw into double coverage (the pick) and bracket coverage when other players were open.
My other observation, and this might not be on WIllis, is why isn't there any separation between our WRs and DBs? It seems whenever we catch the ball we immediately get tackled. Is that poor rout running, bad play design, bad decision making by the QB, or more likely a combination of the three?
Hazelton was open and he hit him in the chest so I feel like Willis made the right call on that play.
http://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/25168624
Watching this sober for the first time, there's no way you can blame Willis for that pick.
Still puzzling to me how this was deemed an INT. I guess possession occurs whenever you can screenshot the precise moment in time when the ball first touches fingertips?
Agreed. I thought it was a pick at first until I saw the replay on the video board. But it was one of many things that didn't go our way Saturday, including a fair number of defensive PIs that weren't called against BC. The one where the defender grabbed Peoples (?) by the shoulder pads and turned him stands out in particular.
This game continued the trend of generally poor officiating during a home game that noticeably favored the visiting team multiple times. Yes we got away with a few things here and there but we certainly do not have any kind of home field advantage from the refs.
At this point, I would love just fair officiating from the ref's. It seems like they are always on the other teams sides in our games.
I'm sure almost every team feels that way, but it does feel like this year is worse than past years.
How is that not a pick? He has possession with a foot inbounds, and never loses possession.
That's even more of a catch than Danny Coale's in the Sugar Bowl.
I think its questionable whether he had control of the ball while he had a foot down inbounds.
watching the replay I saw the following sequence
1) foot is down
2) ball hits hands, bobbles
3) foot comes off ground
4) ball secured
5) other foot lands on the line = out of bounds = no catch
2-3-4 are a very quick sequence and I could see how it could have been ruled a catch initially but not after a replay review.
I honestly think he should have thrown it away, personally, and I stand by that stance. I'm also not entirely sure the defender was in bounds when he caught it but it is what it is at this point.
Thrown it away? The ball is "in" the receivers hands in this still shot, 7 yards downfield, inbounds. Why throw it away?
I count three, and as many as seven defenders around him. He's not getting the first down and there's too much risk to throw a pick with just the three defenders closing in on him. And what happened?
It's 2nd down. Lot easier to go 3rd and 3 than 3rd and 10...
What happened is the ball slipped out of the receivers hands, not even 30% Willis' fault. The WR is wide open. If he drops that in the stands, I'd be a lot more worried about the PTSD from Kansas and his ability to even take snaps at a D1 level than making that throw and hitting the WR.
Then he should be living for the next down. For some reason I remember that being 3rd down, not 2nd but I can tell from the screen shot that it is, in fact, second down. That was my bad for mis-remembering, but I'd rather him throw it away and live for the next play than even consider forcing anything.
Take a look at the clip I posted above...
If he throws that away in that situation I want him to have his helmet taken away and no longer step foot on a football field.
It's not forcing anything when there's clear land between the QB and his target. By the mindset of not forcing anything, we should be throwing it away on many of our over-the-shoulder touchdown passes.
If a D1 college QB is either a) unable to make that throw or b) not confident enough to attempt that throw, to the wide open receiver....that person needs to retire from football.
Given this screenshot, can the Mod put the "should have thrown it away" folks in timeout for a little while?
Seriously. If 2 yards of separation 7 yards downfield is deemed a 'throw it away' play for the QB, I'm not sure how many completed passes we should even expect to see.
So, what? Just because I have an opinion that differs from yours I should be put in time-out?
Isn't this kind of post against community guidelines?
Generally I believe that if a ball hits the receiver in the chest or hands, he should make the catch. But pegging your receiver with a fast ball in traffic from 10 yards away is definitely high-risk, and I agree the smart move would've been to throw it away
In traffic?
Yes, there's no doubt Hazelton heard the footsteps. It's a ball that has to be caught, but if Willis makes that throw, he has to make it sooner, and he has to put the ball on the sideline shoulder to minimize risk and protect his receiver. Hazelton gets lit up if he catches it; instead the defenders react to the bobble.
It was one play. Could it have been thrown better? Maybe! But the proof is right before your eyes and you come up with that he should have thrown it so many micro-seconds sooner to the outside shoulder. Sheesh! You need to be out there. Do you have a thing against Willis (and that is why I rant)? If so, get over it. He is not perfect, but on that one play he threw a decent pass that the receiver is still hearing from the coaching staff that he must catch. Watch Hazelton's reaction at the time and you'll see he knew it himself. The pass was there. Someone did remark that there was a guy more open downfield. I can't confirm that, but if true I could wish Willis had thrown it to him instead. Willis, however, is what we got. I might prefer Jackson and no one can know if he would have thrown the same pass. Hazelton, as is not an uncommon receiver error, could have used a micro-second to secure the ball regardless of how many defenders were somewhat near but not really close to touching him as it arrived. He wanted that first down and and muffed it before taking care of first things first. I am sorry but I am finished with this now.
This can easily be a catch and step out of bounds play. Well, catch and get forced out. But I wouldn't say blown up. Better chance of a 15 yard penalty than anything. Again, chunking this away is silly.
The ball is right below the sideline hash for the 6.
Man. Evidence above speaks to the contrary. dude is open, and like many times this year, the player made a big mistake by dropping the pass. It really doesn't have to be more complex than that . No Xs and Os, no bad playcalling, halftime adjustments...just a bad play. We've had plenty and they have crippled us.
It was more than 10 yards and even if it was 10 yards, 10 yds is far enough for a receiver to react to the ball (the receiver was on the sidelines and the QB was about 8-10 yards from the sidelines at the time of the throw, so apply Pythagorean's theorem). Secondly, the QB is on the move; the pass isn't that hot.
The INT is on Hazelton. Most suggestions to the contrary is staring at facts and analyzing with a preconceived intent.
Neither QB is "good" or what we should be settling for as a program that's supposed to be building a good offense. But I'll take the guy who actually moves the ball and scores but also forces bad decisions over the guy who doesn't make mistakes but doesn't move the ball either.
There have many dropped balls this year. There were several others in this game by other receivers . Well placed throws that hit receivers hands. That is not on RW. Maybe the receivers can't play at this level or maybe we should not be so critical.
my perceptions...
as a drop back passer, I think he's done fairly well, though the decisions after the first read seem to come slow
conversely in the zone read, i don't think he has a clue.
in the TV prelim to the Duke game I think he said, "I don't have to play great, I just have to play clean". I think he still struggles to play clean.
This was typed on my phone:
I was fine with JJ, and I am fine RW at QB1. Both are proven to be able to run this offense. There are different strengths and weaknesses with each, of course, but we are fortunate to have some impressive QB depth.
What does concern me is the larger picture; our offense these past two years. It seemingly disappears for large stretches in the meat of our schedule (Conference Play). Our offense and special teams, alone, should be enough to carry the team. ODU and GT (which I believe are the worst two program losses in the past 30-years, provided the circumstances and ample time to prepare for each) have nowhere near the talent, nor resources of VT Football. We showed we could impose our will on GT, when we had the ball. Then our offense started misfiring, when it was clear we would have to win in a shootout. I place the blame more on the coaches, than on the players.
The burden this year, was always going to be on the Offense and Special Teams to compensate for an outlier standard in Hokie Defense. This is where we need our offensive-minded coaches to pull their weight, as well. as This is what we were expected, when Fuente was hired. The honeymoon ended last year, with our new
coaches. They need to step it up. They need to move forward with a purpose.
No I'm not saying pull the plug on the entire staff. Bud Foster proved his keep, once again against BC. We knew the Defense suffered an extraordinary amount of attrition and adversity, after 2017. Bud Foster has proven himself during an impressive generation-spanning career as a D-1 DC. He will get things back on-par with expectations.
There are 3 ACC games left, against teams that are highly vulnerable. Get us bowling, and keep the Commonwealth Cup in its rightful home.
Make it happen, CornFu. Go Hokies!