How did the offense perform relative to the defenses faced this year?

There are a few ways to attempt to quantify the offenses performance this year. Average points scored is one of them, but that does not take into account how strong a particular defense is. This year we faced the #3 (ND) and #10 (Miami) defenses.

One set of metrics that does that this into account is the S&P+ (through 11/10/18). We can compare our offensive performance vs. the average points scored against each defense.

Below is a table that summarizes our performance to date. A negative number in the difference column indicates we under performed vs the average number of points scored against each team.

Team Defensive S&P+ Rank Defensive S&P+ VT Points Scored Difference
FSU 43 24.5 24 -0.5
ODU 116 39.3 35 -4.3
Duke 46 25.2 31 5.8
ND 3 14.6 23 8.4
UNC 98 33.2 22 -11.2
GT 96 33 28 -5
BC 25 21 21 0
Pitt 77 29.9 22 -7.9
Miami 10 17.2 14 -3.2
UVA 37 23.6 ? ?
Marshall 108 17.5 ? ?

Unfortunately, there is no simple trend to be gleaned from this data. We underperformed in 6 of 9 games, which is not surprising given our record. Our largest underperformance was against UNC and our smallest against FSU.

Even our over performance against ND was not enough to win.

What does this mean?

For it to mean something, we would have to agree on a standard. What is the acceptable level of offensive performance? Average? Above Average? Excellent? And what do those qualifiers mean quantitatively?

I do not think I will try to answer the aforementioned questions now.

I think it's fair to say there is little excuse for the offense to perform poorly against bad defenses like ODU, Pitt, UNC and GT. With our defense in the condition it is in, even a great performance against Pitt and GT may not have changed the outcome, but we should expect more. How much more? I can't say. I have doubts the data is nicely distributed for each team let alone across teams. Maybe the answer is enough to win? Maybe the answer is #X in the ACC, whatever we think X should be.

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Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

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Virginia Tech Class of 2013
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21st century QBs Undefeated vs UVA:
MV7, MV5, LT3, Grant Wells, Braxton Burmeister, Ryan Willis, Josh Jackson, Jerod Evans, Michael Brewer, Tyrod Taylor, Sean Glennon, and Grant Noel. That's right, UVA. You couldn't beat Grant Noel.

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Joffrey, Cersei, Ilyn Payne, the Hound, Jeff Jagodzinski, Paul Johnson, Pat Narduzzi.

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Wet stuff on the red stuff.

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Joffrey, Cersei, Ilyn Payne, the Hound, Jeff Jagodzinski, Paul Johnson, Pat Narduzzi.

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"I liked you guys a lot better when everybody told you you were terrible." -Justin Fuente

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"I liked you guys a lot better when everybody told you you were terrible." -Justin Fuente

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Wet stuff on the red stuff.

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Wet stuff on the red stuff.

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"I liked you guys a lot better when everybody told you you were terrible." -Justin Fuente

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"I liked you guys a lot better when everybody told you you were terrible." -Justin Fuente