UVA heads to Blacksburg for what could be the last game of the 2018 season. They are a 4.5 point favorite and have a 7-4 overall record and 4-3 conference record.
This is not going to be an easy game but I think it's winnable. First UVA's record belies the fact that their non-conference schedule was soft.
- RIchmond (FCS): 4-7
- Indiana: 5-6
- Ohio: 7-4
- Liberty: 4-6
Regardless of a few cupcakes on the schedule one thing that is apparent from the numbers is that UVA's defense is good. Only one team scored more points against UVA than their S&P+ Offensive rating, NC State. Otherwise UVA's defense has been solid.
| Team | Offensive S&P+ Rank | Offensive S&P+ | UVA Points Against | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 81 | 27.9 | 20 | -7.9 |
| Ohio | 11 | 39.8 | 31 | -8.8 |
| Louisville | 111 | 22.8 | 3 | -19.8 |
| NC State | 25 | 34.8 | 35 | 0.2 |
| Miami | 56 | 29.8 | 13 | -16.8 |
| Duke | 59 | 29.4 | 14 | -15.4 |
| UNC | 65 | 29 | 21 | -8 |
| Pitt | 38 | 32.8 | 23 | -9.8 |
| Liberty | 79 | 28.2 | 24 | -4.2 |
| GT | 28 | 34.5 | 30 | -4.5 |
| VT | 54 | 29.9 |
It should be noted that they seemed to fade down the stretch and it's not clear if that is because of injuries, better competition or something else. I'm fairly sure it's not better competition. On average UVA has held their opponents to 9.5 points less than their season average. For Virginia Tech that is not positive as VT's S&P+ Offensive rating is 29.9. If UVA maintains that performance against Tech's offense that would result in VT scoring 20.4 points.
What about their offense?
| Team | Defensive S&P+ Rank | Defensive S&P+ | UVA Points Scored | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 75 | 29.7 | 16 | -13.7 |
| Ohio | 108 | 35.8 | 45 | 9.2 |
| Louisville | 105 | 35.1 | 27 | -8.1 |
| NC State | 57 | 27.5 | 21 | -6.5 |
| Miami | 13 | 17 | 16 | -1 |
| Duke | 46 | 25.7 | 28 | 2.3 |
| UNC | 99 | 32.9 | 31 | -1.9 |
| Pitt | 71 | 29.5 | 13 | -16.5 |
| Liberty | 126 | 42.8 | 45 | 2.2 |
| GT | 100 | 33.3 | 27 | -6.3 |
| VT | 89 | 31.2 |
UVA's offense underperforms by an average of about 4 points vs. their opponents allowed points.
VT is allowing 31.2 points per game. If UVA underperforms against VT by their typical 4 points they will score 27 points.
That would give us a final score of 27-21 UVA.
There is going to be no room for error. We can't have turnovers or give up special teams touchdowns and the offense absolutely has to score at least 4 touch downs if we are to win.
Go Hokies!
Comments
Great analysis.
I'd like to think that a rivalry game throws the stats out the window, but that's what I thought for Miami. I hope we play our tails off and make plays. But our offense continues to fail to get us enough points to win games.
Miami and GT had beaten us enough games in a row that I'm willing to accept that "they've won the last few" means a mediocre Coastal team will win any given game this year, too. I think that's a fine unbiased metric to go with. Pitt is the obvious exception as they've separated from the pack this year.
Miami had only beaten us once in a row before Saturday...
I've been surprised with how UVA's defense has been able to hold up with defensive line depth that's at least as bad as ours. Like last season if there was ever a team to go out and mash into submission it would be this one.
This team doesn't know how to mash. Mashing requires aggressive run-blocking. VT doesn't do that.
We didn't know how to do it until last year's UVA game either. I'm just saying that the possibility is there.
Oh yeah, last year, when our O-line mashed their D-line to the tune of 10 points in 60 minutes.
I don't see our defense holding them under 30 this year, much less 10. Not a very good comparison.
We ball controlled the second half to death running the ball.
Then it would take us completely altering the identity of 2018 Virginia Tech football in the span of 5 days. And if you think that is possible, I have got to let you in on some beachfront property in Arizona I just came across.
Arizona has some very nice beaches. The joke you're looking for is oceanfront property.
So you would say that the joke is as effective as the 2018 Hokies football team?
Or is the joke as efficient as the 2018 Hokies?
I heard it is easy to find sand in parts of Arizona for those beaches.
I don't know anyway we win this game. I would love to, but I just don't see it happening.
JMU was able to beat us on a short week in a season where we went 10-2.
Maybe we can beat UVA on a short week this year.
LOLUVA went into OT against GT. The extra chop blocks combined with on less day of rest will benefit the Hokies.
Maybe?
They stats suggest they are fading down the stretch. I haven't been able to find any good injury info.
They have had some injuries on defense but players returned in recent weeks (LB Jordan Mack) and ultimately I'd say they've stayed pretty healthy for a season of football.
Starting defensive end Richard Burney is out for the year. Mandy Alonso, Burney's replacement, is out for the season as well. Former starting LB Malcolm Cook has retired from football due to injuries.