So... we got that going for us.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/qbr
For comparison, Jerod Evans was ranked #24 in 2016 with a QBR of 74.0 versus 74.3 for Willis.
If you had asked me before I looked at it, I would have guessed he ranked more towards the middle of the pack (50-70 range)...
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But is he effective? *ducks*
QBR doesn't mean anything when you can't convert a 3rd and 6 at your opponents 37 yard line
I thought he was as high as 15 before the Miami game... I'll have to go back and check.
On November 2, he was #15. The INTs must have dropped his ranking.
http://www.thekeyplay.com/content/2018/november/2/how-well-has-willis-pl...
But does he execute?
Just another data point on the inconsistent execution and play calling. He's protecting the ball, and picking up chunks of yards, but the offense as a whole continues to shoot itself in the foot at inopportune times (i.e., the ENTIRE 3rd quarter of every game).
While this offense has certainly been inept this season, I've still always felt like the potential was there to be good, and Willis' QBR confirms that.
With some of Beamer's worst offenses (e.g. 2006, 2008, 2012), I had zero confidence those offenses could do anything. In 2006, the pass blocking was bad and Glennon wasn't ready. In 2008, all the receivers were freshmen and Darren Evans didn't come on till late in the season. In 2012, the receivers were bad, Logan's accuracy was inconsistent, and there was no running game.
This year's offense has a good quarterback, good receivers, and a serviceable running back in Steven Peoples. This is why I'm so frustrated with Cornelsen. He has more to work with than Stinespring did in those seasons (O'Cainspring in the case of 2012), yet he's still doing just as little.
Sorry to rant about something we've all seen ranted about numerous times in some form or fashion, but it just frustrates the hell out of me.
You echo my sentiments, and plenty of others, I'm sure
You know, when you put it like that your absolutely Right. We do have these things. Very frustrating.
"This year's offense has a good quarterback, good receivers, and a serviceable running back in Steven Peoples. This is why I'm so frustrated with Cornelsen. He has more to work with than Stinespring did in those seasons (O'Cainspring in the case of 2012), yet he's still doing just as little"
We have a QB with a good arm, making questionable (and sometimes headscratching) decisions in both the running and passing game.
He's putting up good numbers, that doesn't necessarily mean he's a good QB
My point was that he's probably an upgrade over Sean Glennon. And aside from the Miami game, I haven't really thought his decision making was that bad. He had that one awful throw against UNC, but I've been satisfied with him.
He's got 17 freaking TD passes (plus 3 rushing TDs) to 6 interceptions. Jesus Christ, how much better do you need him to be?
Quarterback play isn't just TD:INT ratio. He is very limited as a QB. Great heart and motor, but just not to the level we need our starting QB to be.
I mean if the major complaint is that the offense doesn't score nearly enough points then it would stand to reason that we need him to produce a lot more TDs.
So why does the narrative have to be that he's a good QB and the coaches suck instead of he's a limited QB and the coaches are getting what they can out of him?
Honestly I think that VT fans have a deep rooted neurosis as a result of the 2006-2015 offenses and as a result quickly revert to a default assumption that the offensive coordinator is incompetent, especially with regards to their perceived play calling abilities.
Yep, maybe the coaches are coaching their nuts off to get this much out of him.
Here's the problem I'm having with the perception of our O this year.
2017 (full season):
Rushing 584 attempts 2254 yds 3.9 yd avg 19 TD
Passing 245/412 3113 yds 7.56 yd/att 21 TD 9 INT
2018 (so far):
Rushing 392 attempts 1646 yds 4.2 yd avg 14 TD
Passing 198/338 2570 yds 7.6 yd/att 22 TD 7 INT
For all of 2017, we scored 40 TDs. For 2018 so far, we've scored 36 TDs. JJ had 120 more attempts throwing the ball than RW, and had 1000+ more yards. Considering what JJ did with less "talent" last year, the O should have exploded this year. But it really hasn't. The play calls are essentially the same, so why was last year about JJ being just okay and the O needing to execute better, but RW is awesome and the play calling sucks. Statistically speaking, these guys are almost identical, yet our playbook is limited due to what the current guy can't do. This is what bugs me about the criticisms of our O.
JJ put up some huge numbers against some bad teams early in the season that really skewed the numbers. His play noticeably regressed once we hit the meat of the ACC schedule.
Willis isn't perfect by any means, but he opens up big play potential through the air that JJ doesn't offer. He's more prone to a turnover or bad intermediate throw, but he's actually a bit more mobile (even just moving around in the pocket) and has a better deep ball.
What bugs me about the O is that we don't take advantage of the mismatches presented by our WRs on many instances and stubbornly try to force the running game on early downs, leading to loads of 3rd and longs. Additionally, it's becoming more and more evident that the rushing game, outside of sweeps and misdirection, is really not all that effective in this O without a true rushing threat at QB. JJ isn't all that mobile, and Willis is moreso but still not on a consistent basis. Where is the player evaluation if you need a certain type of player for the position but they don't offer it, or where is the scheme modification in order to cater to the talent you do have?
The reason JJ "regressed" later in the year was because he was playing hurt. He got hurt in the game against Miami in early November and didn't heal up until after the season was over.
Even though RW may have more "big play potential", it's not really showing up on the stat sheet. I don't believe the numbers are down due to play calling. I believe the numbers are down due to being able to run the plays. French has pointed out in his film analyses that there are guys wide open in the passing game that just aren't being looked at. That's on the QB, not the play call. Constantly throwing 50/50 balls to WRs isn't a recipe for success. And going to 14 isn't the answer either, because other teams have figured out that's RW's safety blanket. (Did you know they are roommates and redshirted together and ...)
And as for rushing, I don't care how fast the QB is, if he makes the wrong read on the read option, the running game isn't going anywhere. Against Pitt, RW handed off when the DE, CB and LB were crashing the end of the line, yet there was a huge hole right in front of him with nobody around and OL support leading the way. That's what's truly frustrating to me. People can blame play calling, but the right call was made and the QB didn't make the play. This offense is predicated on presenting multiple dilemmas for the D to have to cover and being able to make a guy miss in open space. When the D doesn't respect the QB run, they are going to send defenders after the primary ball carrier, whether it be a RB or WR on a sweep. That's a big reason why those plays aren't working as well this year.
I'm not saying JJ is perfect. Far from it. But looking at the sheer number of plays difference between the two years, it makes me believe that JJ did a better job of extending drives. That may be boring or mediocre to some people, but it keeps the D off the field which would be a great thing this year.
If Willis is truly such a bad fit for the offense, I really question the evaluation and why he was brought in. We can't have QB1 trained to run our offense and the gameplan completely falls apart or is poorly executed when the backup comes in. I agree JJ was better in executing the reads in the running game. But it's a concern when our offense is not tailored to our personnel and puts them in a situation where they cannot effective run the system.
Willis was a walk-on transfer. Probably brought in to be an emergency back-up or compete for the back-up spot with Hooker. There aren't a ton of QB transfers available any given year to choose from. It's hard to complain if the coaches only offered him a walk-on spot & a chance to compete
Still, we took two transfers last year with Willis and Bush, plus already had JJ, Hooker, and Mummau as a walk-on backup. If Willis was meant just as an emergency walk-on backup, it's alarming that Hooker's development hasn't panned out so far. He was hailed as a major building block when he came in and looked promising early on.
Bush was already on the team last year and left while RW was redshirting.
You are missing my point. RW doesn't allow us to run our full offense. There are clearly limitations to his game. Maybe it is an evaluation miss. Or maybe he breaks down under pressure and just locks into a pattern that the opposing Ds know how to exploit.
I'm not saying I don't support him, because I do. I just recognize that no matter what his QBR is, there are limitations to his game that don't allow him to fully execute the offense. IIWII.
I get your point, I'm just saying that a QB that can't fully execute the offense = bad evaluation on the coaches part, IMO, or else cater the system to the personnel. If they just needed a roster spot from someone on the transfer market with limited options available, I get that to some extent. But it may speak more to Hooker's lack of development so far that Willis is in this position of leading the offense.
I don't think anyone can definitively say what the status of Hooker's development is. You keep going back to that, but haven't provided any evidence that he isn't developing. I get it. You think the coaches suck. You've all but said that in this thread. Until you can provide some stats to say otherwise, I'll just have to disagree with you.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Happy Thanksgiving to you too!
Definitely, no. Having not even attempted a pass is not good. At this time in Jackson's career he was already running the offense and was 8-3 as a starter. I think anyone that assumes Hooker is progressing on schedule is wearing the darkest tinted O&M glasses available. QP may very well be past Hooker's level of development right now. He may have not have completed many passes, but he has attempted 5. In a pass heavy offense, if Hooker was ready, he would have already passed the ball by now.
Man I sure would like to find that coach that never misses on an evaluation \s
Willis was not meant to start. Hooker was expected to develop faster. Shit happens.
QBR is a useless stat.
ESPN made it up essentially to aid in the take culture as another metric to use for spicy takes. It's worthless in actually evaluating things.
ESPN posted this video to get you to change your mind.
Just because a statistic covers more bases than another useless stat doesn't make the first statistic useful.
It's better than passer rating. It at least accounts for running and also is adjusted based on how good the competition is. If QBR is useless, then so is S&P+, or any other stat that is imperfect.
It's like FPI. WTH is that?
We are 5 point underdogs tomorrow, but FPI has us as 50.1%.
I like Willis but he's not a great fit for this offense. IMO he shares a good amount of blame for the running game struggles with the poor run blocking and (until the last few games from Peoples) below average running back play. His reads in the option game are atrocious. He also is very very limited from a playbook standpoint in the passing game over the middle of the field (i.e. the Quarterman pick)
For the whole BuT fUeNtE iS sUpPoSeD tO bE a QuArTeRbAcK wHiSpErEr crowd, take note, this is a master class on what Fuente can do with a QB. Willis is basically Michael Brewer with a better arm, but Fuente has completely reined in his interceptions. It's been said comparing Willis's time at Kansas to his time at VT is not apples to apples, but if there's one thing I'm certain of, ACC defenses >> Big XII defenses.
I'd take Brewer over Willis
Eh Brewer was a healthy reason behind why the 2014 offense sucked. People were ready to crucify him back then. Not sure what would be different now
Brewer led VT to arguably the most impressive win in the post-Tyrod era. 3rd down after 3rd down conversion man. He was a gamer against OSU. I think if he didn't break his collarbone in 2015 and Kendall didn't tear his meniscus, we would have been spitting hot fire that year.
Did we have a running game last year? Was Willis the quarterback last year? No to both. Willis is a quarterback with strengths that our staff does not know how to exploit. Our jet sweeps are where? Our counters are where? Our identity is where? My sanity...Wild Turkey.
Good thing for him QBR doesn't factor in correct decisions on read-options, because he'd be a hell of as lot lower if it did.
Good thing for him QBR doesn't factor in correct decisions on read-options, because he'd be a hell of as lot lower if it did.