How many offers have Power 5 schools made for the 2019 recruiting class? The total offer counts as of this weekend, according to 247. pic.twitter.com/cKJaJaVjUs— Max Olson (@max_olson) December 18, 2018
So a few things that jump off that chart. It's insane any school would send out over 400 offers yet 6 schools did just that. I'm surprised Bama and some other top schools send out so many offers. I really like that Fuente and Co. are sending out less than 175 offers. That means every one of those kids has been evaluated by the staff.
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This is an ultimately meaningless stat. They send out "offers" to lots of kids. Not a single one of these schools sent out that number of committable offers. The way offers are reported is also extremely dubious and completely reliant on what they are told by high schoolers and their parents. Most of these "offers" aren't real scholarship offers.
tldr; I highly doubt any kind of meaningful conclusions can be drawn from these numbers.
And that's not ok. If you extend an offer it should be commitable as long as grades, legal and social behavior remain ok. Another reason I think Fuente was a great fit to replace Beamer, he offers kids he wants and even when a kid gets hurt his offer is still on the table.
Fuente isn't the first, won't be the last, and is not even in some small club of coaches that have maintained offers through injury, many have. I love that Fuente will maintain Gary's scholarship even if he never plays another down of football. That is a great show of character on his behalf, but it does not make him unique.
If you think all of those reported offers we sent out are committable you're not being honest with yourself. Anytime you hear about a recruit who has a reported offer from us but "isn't a take" that means their offer isn't committable. This is also not a unique situation, and it simply has to be this way. You cannot accept the commitment of everyone you offer, every class has limited spaces.
I would like to think of it as an offer to join the race to signing day. The best the coaches can do is be upfront with the status of the race.
I don't think it's fair to say the stat is meaningless, assuming the data is valid.
It does say something about the value of an offer if a program makes 440 (Tennesee) offers vs 75 (Stanford) to fill 20 slots. One of those schools is serious about you if you get an offer. The other is taking a poll.
The data is not reliable. The offers come word of mouth and from Twitter from kids and their parents. There is also not a uniform way to determine what constitutes an offer because it varies from staff to staff.
So the whole subscription-based recruiting data and publication industry is a sham?
Careful, or 247 Santa Clause is going to bring you a lump of coal. /s
The differing "values" of offers is ultimately meaningless if it doesn't lead to better classes anyway. It's just something to feel good about
If that were the case, then it would be a medical hardship, and it wouldn't count against the 85, IIRC.
Don't forget about the $100k+ that the Hokie Club would need to fund his education. It's not just a headcount issue.
This is how it has to be. If it had to be commitable then the rich will just get richer. A smaller school wouldn't risk an offer on a kid that is unlikely to commit. 4 and 5 * recruits would stay in the top 5 schools because that's all they would get offered. It's not unheard of for a top recruit to check out facilities and coaches and choose a lower level school. This would be eliminated if you didn't want to tie up commitments.
Some schools probably have to send out hundreds of offers just to get a large enough pool of interested kids.
Every offer doesn't have to be committable. Verbal offers are ways to let the player know you're interested, and in many cases, offers go out to sophomores in high school. A lot can change between then and signing day, and not everyone is an immediate 'take.' Coaches need to have Plan A, B, and C, + guys ready on the radar, or else you're going to be in a heap of hurt when guys go elsewhere. Sending out only 28 committable offers or whatever it is isn't realistic at all.
How about less than 200?
Seems like a completely arbitrary number to choose
Fuente sends out uncommitable offers every year. So would Jesus himself if he were a modern college coach.
Why are we downvoting this? He's right, every school sends out uncommitable offers. It's a backup plan if you don't land all of your top targets.
All of Jesus's offers are committable.
Let's go down this rabbit hole.
Let's not.
The teams at the top of the list make sense to me. A ton of the schools that are offering are not guarnteed to land those players.
Bama's is bigger then I expected. There kill rate has to be fairly high, so you would think they are more selective, but they probably have to overshoot on players that will be choosing from Ohio State, Clemson, Michigan. They have competition for top talent.
We are lower, but that's probably because we have a closer relationship with those recruits and are offering to people who will more than likely commit.
406 scholarship offers and Louisville has the 138th ranked class right now
Did not even realize there was that many DIV-I schools now or is this including the lower tiers?
Wikipedia says 129+1 transitional as of 2018
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Division_I_Football_Bowl_Subdivision
Includes all of D-I, they're below a handful of FCS schools.
lol@ Tennessee's spray and pray recruiting tactics.
There isn't a ton of in-state talent in TN. They've got to cast a wide net. Same goes for Syracuse and Nebraska for that matter
The same could be said for Iowa, or Wisconsin. Those states don't even have 50 kids on 247 between them in this cycle, but Wisconsin and Iowa each offer less than half as many kids as Tennessee. That is if we're trusting these numbers somewhat approach reality. Tennessee may be compensating for lack of in state talent to a degree, but that isn't the entire story here.
Then what do you think the entire story is?
I'm not sure why there are so many who think this is such a negative stigma to this. It's how recruiting goes now. There are more tools in place to grade kids, staffs are bigger, more recruiting services, more social media exposure and availability of tape...it doesn't seem illogical at all that the number of offers out would grow over time.
I don't think there is a huge negative stigma, it just means that a Tennessee offer in your profile doesn't mean all that much.
I would think that administratively, it would require effort that a team could be using towards someone they actively want.
Though nothing ultimately matters other than a signed letter of intent.
It might simply be a matter of the extreme competition in the SEC footprint. Looking at ESPN recruiting class rankings [link] I see SEC teams have 11 of the top 25 classes. Even a lousy team like Arkansas (2-10 this season) has the #18 class. Maybe Rocky Top feels like they have to make that many offers simply because the hit rate is pretty low?
Also, this Pruitt's first recruiting class there, right? Maybe he's trying to figure out where his program's sweet spot / hit rate is?
I don't really know or care. I'm just pointing out that lack of in state talent doesn't have to lead directly to more offers. I deliberately don't spent a lot of time thinking about recruiting unless there's a new TKP article about some kid we're going after or I'm looking at how the other ACC classes shaped up around signing day.
That's the way I look at these schools with the large numbers. Throw as much shit against the wall and see what sticks.
Damn! I knew Nebraska was over 400 with Frost offering anyone that attended a HS football game, but I had no idea they had so much company.
I'd like to see these numbers for the past 3-4 years before we assign narratives behind them. We had very few spots available before the season. Maybe in a normal year we'd send out 250? Could probably adjust by offers/available spot, but that would be fluid too due to in-season attrition.
My question would simply be does it really make a difference if it's 175 or 250? Or even 300? All of those numbers are WAY over the number of spots anyone has to take. It's been mentioned elsewhere in this thread but location, methods of contact, and class size would all likely affect the number of offers you have to send out in any given year. I just don't think there are any meaningful narratives to take from this whatsoever, at least not about how good a staff is about evaluations.
We were at 230 the last 2 years and have already sent 120 for 2020. Seems incredibly likely the dip was just for the "small" class.
What % of the kids in high school are persuing programs like Bama, Michigan and Florida? If you've got a bunch of kids knocking on your door...you might make a few more offers. Or...if a kid is knocking, he might tweet he got an offer even when someone on the other side of the door says something like "Who is it"? These are High School kids reporting in some cases, right?
via GIPHY
This chart is why the "VT is recruiting better recently because these kids have more P5 offers than in the past " is bullshit. Potted Plants get P5 offers apparently. Now if you want to show me proof of a commitable offer stats, I'll listen.
What do coaches have against air plants?
Did anyone else just have a Syracuse Scholarship Offer pop up in their email inbox?
I've gotten more Syracuse offers in my inbox than I have letters from deceased Nigerian princes.
and yet, it is still more than fans at the UVA Spring Festival.
So out of the 171 we'll really get about 10%
I would argue 10% is an average hit rate.
A standard class of 25 players with a 10% hit rate would be 250 offers. Since the national average is 237 offers, I would say Tech is neither great nor bad.
However for Tennessee to reach a 10% hit rate, they would need a class of 44 players. So at least we're not Tennesse
Tennessee is going to finish with a much better recruiting class than us. I'll take sending out 800 offers if that means we land top 15 classes regularly.
Good point.
Performance is measured by results.
Nebraska slides into the DM's...
Dishonorable Mentions?
Direct Messages?
Dirt Magnets?
Dungeon Masters?
Dork Magics?
Distinct Majorities?
D- All of the Above
You wanna tell your boss to back off Asante? /s
UVA has sent over 100 more than VT, 284 to 171. How many more do they need to send before they finally end the streak?
They had their shot. It'll be a very long time, and they'll have to send out thousands of offers before they even get another sniff