Just wrote this for a class assignment for my Master's. I figured it would be an interesting topic to discuss here.
Over the past decade, the NFL has been facing significant scrutiny over player safety due to increased knowledge and understanding of Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE). A degenerative brain disease caused by repetitive trauma, CTE has been found predominantly in former NFL players and other athletes who competed in high impact sports (1). In response to the negative backlash caused by new CTE research, the NFL started to collect and study player data in order to make changes that enhance safety. Indeed, the NFL has already begun implementing changes to games and practices based on their analysis.
More recently, the NFL released a proprietary data set along with Next Gen Stats and RFID chip-collected tracking data from the 2016 and 2017 seasons to start an annual crowdsourcing competition called 1st & Future (2). The 1st & Future entrants competed for a $50k grant for the first place winner and $20k grants for up to four finalists (3). What is amazing about the competition is that the entrants get unlimited access to the cherished tracking data from Zebra Technologies'. These data were so highly touted that only this past football season all 32 individual NFL teams were given access (4).
The transparency created from the 1st & Future competition has paid massive dividends to the NFL Competition Committee, which in turn has used the crowdsourced results to improve player safety. The NFL used the analysis gathered from the 2018 winners to make massive changes to the kickoffs, including eliminating the wedge, moving the kickoff to the 35-yard line, and disallowing the kickoff team from getting a running start (5). The numbers have not been released for the 2018 season, but during the preseason the NFL reported that injuries on kickoffs were down, and that included zero concussions (6). The winners of the 2019 competition have made many suggestions to improve the punt play, which include incentivizing fair catches and outlawing the double coverage of gunners (7). We will see if the Competition Committee uses any of these suggestions in the upcoming months.
As of right now, the NFL is the only professional league to utilize crowdsourcing to modernize play and practice of their sport. What other sports leagues could benefit from utilizing crowdsourcing to improve their product? What other ways could the NFL utilize data to improve safety and other aspects of their sport? Traditionally, scouting information and data have been held in high secrecy and treated as private intel for coaches' eyes only. Imagine if they released those data—could the power of the crowd reveal team tendencies that would have never been uncovered in the first place?
References
(1) Foundation, Concussion Legacy. "What Is CTE?" Concussion Legacy Foundation, 6 Nov. 2018, concussionfoundation.org/CTE-resources/what-is-CTE.
(2, 4) Lemire, Joe. "NFL Crowdsources Punt Safety Ideas From Zebra Player Tracking Data." SportTechie, 5 Dec. 2018, www.sporttechie.com/nfl-crowdsource-zebra-tracking-data-next-gen-stats-1....
(3, 7) Lemire, Joe. "NFL's 1st & Future Honors Injury Reduction Tech, New Punt Play Ideas." SportTechie, 4 Feb. 2019, www.sporttechie.com/nfl-1st-future-topspin-solius-punt/.
(5) Maske, Mark. "The NFL Wants to 'Modernize' the Punt, and It's Taking Suggestions." The Washington Post, WP Company, 4 Dec. 2018, www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/12/04/nfl-wants-modernize-punt-its-ta....
(6) Seifert, Kevin. "The NFL's Rule Tweaks Are Saving the Kickoff from Extinction." ESPN, ESPN Internet Ventures, 15 Nov. 2018, www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/287320/the-nfl-rule-tweaks-saving-....
Comments
I don't know if you know this but the NFL actually posted a Kaggle competition where they essentially encouraged freelance data scientists to review punt data and make recommendations for prize money. The competition has been closed for some time now, but it's still neat.
https://www.kaggle.com/c/NFL-Punt-Analytics-Competition
Yes I did. It's near the end of the second to last paragraph. The 1st & Future program is where they rewarded the winner. They haven't made any determinations on how they will change the punt play, but their ideas will be given to the Competition Committee for review. Things like no double teaming gunners and rewarding fair catches with 5 yards are on the table.
Eliminating the double team on gunners seems like something that would require another rule change to make it work. I can see it giving the offense an advantage on fake punts if there is guaranteed single coverage.
Apparently the data shows that more players get hurt in the double team then any other part of the punt.
I assumed that from the suggested rule change. It's also going to require more rule changes to be practical. Maybe you could do some type of rule like chop blocks where only one player is allowed to cantact the gunner.
I would be ok with more fake punts. It keeps things interesting, plus I love the wild eyed look a punter has when he either manages to survive the fake for a first down or realizes that some NFL defender is about to pummel him.
Dang, for as much $ the NFL makes you'd think the prize money would be a little more for 1st/2nd prize for research from professionals.
The contestants that participated seemed to be college based research teams.
Or in the case of Kaggle it's usually analysts looking to hone their skills and collaborate on a real data science project. It seems to be a combination of people breaking into the industry and looking for a test, and seasoned professionals looking for a fun side project.
Either way, it's not a full blown research project. It's like a sporting event for nerds.
Intramural Nerdery, if you will
I would love for a team NFL or collegiate level to release data sets of scouting reports. To see what tendencies each team has and what would be uncovered in crowdsourcing would be awesome to take a look at.
Remove all kicking from the game. No kickoffs, no XP, no FGs, no punts. You want exciting, then everyone is going for it on 4th down. Whats more exciting that 4th and 1 in the shadows of your own goal post. It would be fun.
I always assumed Next Gen Stats and RFID chip-collected tracking data would be used primarily for .... gambling
The Zebras' Data aka the RFID Chip Data was pretty locked up until this past year, and it just so happens that coincided with legalized gambling being made possible in all states.
The stats were only given to all 32 teams last year for the first time and were not released to the masses, just the people that were apart of the 1st and Future competition.
I'm not sure what good the Zebra data would be for a gambler, but it could help in the future. I can definetly see the value in the Next Gen Stats though towards gambling.
And all it took was a ton of bad PR from downplaying and sometimes outright denying CTE links for years...
I'm glad they're finally doing something about it, but I'm not giving the NFL a pass on this issue.