I've been reading on the interwebs that the Duke game Friday is a must win game for the Hokies. What do you think? While every conference loss is bad, every other team in coastal contention remains on the schedule. I would say it is more like a Must-Avoid-Ugly-Loss game. What say you?
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Mathematically, no.
Team morale wise, maybe.
Fan morale wise, probably.
But if we lose and then beat Miami on the road next weekend then anything bad that may happen Friday probably goes away pretty quickly.
Well reasoned. I would argue every week is a must win for fan morale though. Team morale is important though and that could easily squash my theory that this team will improve much more week to week than last year.
Must win for what?
Must win to keep the fan base from completely going off the rails - yes!
Must win to keep the coastal championship in play - maybe!
Must win to keep bowl streak alive - maybe!
Must win to keep loluva streak alive - no!
The road to keeping the bowl streak alive isn't easy based on what we've seen thus far. Plus, since Rhode Island was scheduled in place of ECU and we already played Furman, we can only count (1) of those games towards bowl eligibility since they are FCS schools. With (2) wins so far this means we have to win (4) more games out of these:
Duke
Miami
UNC
Notre Dame
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
Pitt
UVA
Based on what we've seen so far, I don't see any of these as "gimmes."
I would look at Georgia Tech as a gimme. But the rest, I'm with you.
You mean the same team that beat us 49-28 at home last October?
definitely not even close to the same team lol
Correct. I don't think GT will beat us by 20 points this year of they do not complete a single pass. Don't see that happening again.
Technically it is the same school. But new coach, new players, and most importantly no Paul Johnston triple option. I think we win against them this year given their transition to an entirely different offense.
Edit: also they just lost to The Citadel.
Absolutely must win
Depends on your expectations. If you think the team is still recovering from Frank Beamer's recruiting, Mook Reynolds setting us back, Tim Settle going pro early, untimely injuries, a small amount of scholarships available for 2020 because of Beamer, the least amount of seniors in college football, hazelton's injury, then nope- not a must win at all, because 3-9 is fine and right on track to recover from all of that.
If your expectations are to see VT be competitive in the ACC coastal again, then yes this is a must win.
Fair but there is probably room to be somewhere between those two thought processes.
I implore you to find the person unironically saying this.
Haven't seen any exact quotes on 3-9, no. I have seen dozens of posters on this board make excuses for 3 points in the first half against Furman though. If we lose to UVA to go 3-9... log in here...within 5 posts Fireman or someone else will blame Beamer and tell you the future is very very bright. that's a lock.
👌
You never told us what YOU think though.
Home game in Lane, against Duke. Since I have followed VT football longer than 3 years, of course this is a must win. 10 years ago this game was laughable. 6 years ago their best team perhaps ever needed 4 VT turnovers to win by a FG. We have beaten them 16 out of the last 18 meetings. Of course this is a must win.
Why is that relevant? You LOVE throwing around how long you've been a fan, had season tickets, donated to the Hokie Club, etc, but that doesn't help your argument. In fact, it makes you sound very arrogant.
I'm sorry, I explained the rationale twice in my post, so I'll try again. VT used to own Duke- I remember those days. VT used to own Duke very recently- I remember those days. This game is at night in Lane. I remember the days when that was very tough for any team, much less a Duke program that has only had somewhat recent success. I know these things because I have been a VT fan for a while, and not just recently, where horrid performances against Furman are excused by many fans.
I still fail to see the relevance. Perhaps you just needed a ego boost.
His logic makes perfect sense to me.
Agreed. About as clear as it gets.
LOL. whatever... you are reading into something that's not there.
I'm not. I'm pointing out that I'm tired of hearing that you're a "super fan" because you donate money, have season tickets, or have been a fan for x number of years. All those things hold true for many people on this site, but you don't see them parading around like they are special. Those types of comments don't add value and make you sound like you think you're better than everyone else or like your opinion matters more.
Since I've never done that, especially in this thread, yeah you are reading into something. I've never bragged that I was some "super fan". Please. I guess posting that "I've been a VT fan for a while" is bragging in your world. Oh well.
You seem to forget very quickly, so I've gone back in time to remind you that yes, you do often brag and sound like you think you're better than others. I could've kept going, but I think 3 examples should suffice. All of the points below did nothing to add to your overall point.
Thanks, those were all responses to someone telling me I should stop being a VT fan or I wasn't a VT fan. But in your world, context means nothing. Clearly. Thanks
If you go back and look at the posts yourself, I think you'll find that to be untrue.
These continuous threads digging on any and everything DC says or how he says it are getting old and add zero value to the site. Please stop.
I wasn't digging on everything he says. In fact, I've called him out in the past for being arrogant. I disagree with almost everything he says, but I've been consistent with commenting on it. I don't enjoy arrogant people who think their point counts more because they've paid more or been a fan longer. I've been a fan for a long time and donate, but there's no need for me to flaunt it.
That's exactly what heuplek is asking folks not to do. And he's right. People are hounding DC just because it's the cool thing to do despite a lot of his points being justified.
Yes. Every thread he comments on. Is 50% replying to DC in a completely unrelated way. If you dont enjoy what your reading just ignore it.
Speaking of comments that don't add value.....
it is a weird roundabout way to gatekeep what makes for a valid opinion, but I think it's pretty obvious that tone/optics aren't ever going to be what he cares about in his posts. but having said that, Virginia Tech football fans should expect to beat Duke in football year in and year out just as much as a Duke basketball fan should expect the team to beat the Hokies in basketball year in and year out. Historically it's just the case.
so "I've been a fan a while, I remember Duke being bad" is bad optics and/or bad tone? OHHHHH KAAAAYYYY
If you zoom out a bit, jmecca is referring to your overall body of commentary on the site.
I don't think the shoe necessarily fits here in this particular case.
Having said that, sometimes your comments do come across to me like you might believe that your level of fandom makes your opinions inherently more right compared to other fans who don't give as much or travel as much.
Not a knock, just an observation. Not gonna argue about it either, just observe. Community moderation.
Meh...if anyone else made the same post, no one would be mentioning 'optics' here. What he says in his OP is fine, and this seems like another example of unnecessary pettiness.
He's mentioned in the past that he donates when people have questioned his fandom, taking those quotes out of context can certainly paint a different picture. I'd also say, with the number of posters who try to claim "you can't complain unless you donate," it's not a surprise he qualifies with explaining he's a regular donor.
This on all accounts.
DC would literally get chastised if he said, "I just want world peace, homes for all the puppies, and annual UVA beatdowns."
Only because rather than saying that, he would say:
"We have failed miserably as a human race and we are left only with bigoted idiots who only want war instead of peace. Also, I hate cat and their owners, but puppies are okay because I have a dog. In addition, we've lost 4 games in a row to GT so I expect to lose to UVA this year, but at least we have squeaked out the past couple. LOLOLOL"
Not really. Not close at all. I will not blow sunshine and blame beamer, mook reynolds, and zombie sightings if we lose by 30 to Duke at home though, true.
Friggin' zombies are a game changer though
Which kind though? World War Z zombies or Walking Dead zombies...?
It doesn't matter. All kinds of zombies are stupid, and I can't watch a single movie or TV show based on zombies without thinking "this makes no sense at all."
Okay, I admit I love Zombieland. But that's because it's a parody of ridiculous zombie movies. And Bill Murray is in it.
Zombieland 2 comes out in a few weeks
10 years ago we only beat Duke 34-26 and the previous year we only beat them 14-3 at home and that was with a INT returned for a touchdown in the last 2 minutes. You sure you've been following for more than 3 years?
With that said, this is a must win because i think them and GT are the easiest 2 ACC games on our schedule and we are in desperate need of a confidence boost.
10 was a nice round number. Try 13 if that makes you feel better? Or are you in the camp that this series has been nip and tuck? We've won 16 of 18. Duke football was a laughingstock before Cutcliffe got there. THAT was my point, but focus exactly on the 10 year mark, I'm sorry my mistake.
I just think to act like this Duke series has been a gimme since Cutcliffe got here is wrong. It's been a tough game almost every year since he's been here, and thats not just for us, it's for most of the ACC. To act like this is the same Duke team from the first few years we entered the ACC is ignoring facts.
Sure it isn't Duke football 15 years ago, but it's still Duke football. We're still VT, and it is still a night game in Lane.
What should VT fan expectations be playing Duke in football in your eyes?
Duke used to be the equivalent of an FCS school on our schedule before Cutcliffe got there. 52-10 was the expected result every year. While i still expect us to beat Duke 9 out of 10 times in football, I also recognize how much that program has grown in the past 10 years and know as long as Cutcliffe is there, this game will never be the walk in the park it once was.
Yeah, your last sentence is the point I was making. Duke used to suck. We used to laugh at this game. Now we don't, but its still a must win. Let's not pretend cutcliffe has turned them into Bama. They won the coastal ONE time.
Yea.... but that's still ONE more time than UVA, can't sleep on the Dookies
True, UVA has a shot to snag one of the inexplicable fucking GT chicken shit option coastal titles that they lucked into by diving into knees and running gimmick wheel routes on 12 minute drives. Those are gone, so UVA has a window here perhaps.
My Farmer Fran moment will come November 29th. Let me set the scene:
UVA can advance to their first ACCCG by beating their long time nemesis in VT, thus breaking the streak of 15 straight losses and having bragging rights for over a year.
VT wins by 2 on a missed/blocked FG. Which should've never been the game deciding play, but UVA does what UVA does and shoots itself in the foot all game.
I like it
That is completely without current context of either team.
That's a good team with a good coach and a better QB than we have. It's a 3-pt spread. It's a tossup game.
Your agenda, as usual, diminishes any actual analysis.
Duke in the 2000's lost regularly to FCS teams this is a 7-8 win team with a lot of experience. They can't be compared at all. I absolutely think it's a must win but it'd be dumb to think we should Marcus Vick 45-0 them
cracking up at people refusing to believe that DC is making a rational comment. this is all good and fair insight.
I'm going to go a little further and say it's a must beat down. The Hokies need to bring out the baseball bat and the tire iron on a night time ESPN game at home. There's a must punt block, a must 5 sack game, a must pick or two, and a must +20 yd run in there too.
That would surely clear some of the air around the stadium. I do think the home crowd is definitely in need of something to jump about besides Enter Sandman.
"The Hokies need to bring out the baseball bat and the tire iron " <-- Now this is what I like to see in fan comments. None of that wishee washee halfway milk toast undecidedness ! Let's put the fun back in football.
*Milquetoast
Duke sucks. We must beat them.
If the mantra is still "1-0", then yes.
As mentioned above, mathematically no it's not a must win. But considering we are already 0-1 in ACC play, losing the Duke game and then going into Miami on the road the week after won't be any easier. Losing Friday means it's very likely we could be 0-3 in ACC play. That to me means even if we did win the last 5, 5-3 is likely going to put us in some weird tiebreaker situation at best for control of the division. Basically we won't control our own destiny at that point. If we want to salvage a goal for this season and realistically keep hopes of winning the division alive and morale strong, we need a big win against Duke.
Must win. Style doesn't matter to me at this point with this team. Play for each other. Overcome adversity. Earn some swagger.
I miss the days where every game was a must win. And that wasnt up for debate.
But yes. If we want to have a fanbase that somewhat cares about the rest of the season, 100% yes.
It's more than a "Must Win" for me. Losing to Duke at home is inexcusable after a bye week. I don't want to say there's no way that it can happen...but there's no way that it can happen.
More than a win I want to see *progress*. I want to see us start to put together a complete game. I want to see the young team make some strides.
According to ESPN we are underdogs for 6 of the remaining 9 games this season with this game being one of the games we are favorites.
Yes, this is a must win in my opinion.
They mentioned this on Two Deep. Kind of feels like a "package deal." We lose to Duke, we lose to Miami. We beat Duke, we have a whole hell of a lot better chance in beating Miami (or will beat Miami). I just don't wanna be angry the entire game.
I don't get how they are related? Other than that the team will be down mentally if they lose to Duke? If that's the case, we are at a point in VT football where the team can't get up mentally to play Miami. I really hope that's not the case. Miami is not the Miami of 2001 here. I don't think Duke mojo- either way- really impacts this game. I just don't see the dots to connect.
Yes, mentally. Momentum. Letting things carry over. While it's not the Miami of 2001, this also isn't the Tech squad of 2010 that overcame the 0-2 hole. For all we know, we lose to Duke and hammer Miami. Just conversation.
All sports have a very prominent mental factor. It can sometimes make or break a team. I would 100% say that a win against Duke increases our chances to beat Miami as compared to us losing to Duke. The fact that it is Miami is irrelevant. This team needs a confidence boost badly.
Well, I feel like each game is a "must-win". Sounds obvious but wins raise the positive profile of the team, makes us more attractive to recruits, etc.
Recruits pay attention to the outcome of games (especially when they're attending).
Feels like more of a can't-lose than a must-win but that's just my opinion.
this a thousand times over
If we are to become the program we want to be, every game is a must-win. That doesn't mean we burn the place down if we lose, but we can't go into a game, as a program, doing the math on whether we must win. Viewing a game as non-must-win basically says it's acceptable to lose. Once that mentality sets in the motivation levels drop.
Very well said.
Morale wise (player, fan, and even coach) this is a must win.
While a win is a win, I feel like we need to see some explosive, spark type plays. Something along the lines of strip sacks, INT/Punt return for TD, big (clean) hits, long bombs downfield, etc.
Excitement amongst the players ignites excitement amongst the fans; and that's something the fans need to remain invested.
Fuente's offense generally depends on play action or similar RPO "safe" big play. Without a good running game, we look plain boring. I think Fuente needs to get out of his comfort zone to produce some big plays in other ways and perhaps other things will open up.
I was just thinking to myself today about how I can't remember the last time we had a pick-six.
Does the trend line of this program shift dramatically with a loss? I don't think so. So I wouldn't call it a must win.
A loss would be another notch in the pro fire Fuente column, but it wouldn't be the straw that broke the camel's back. A loss would further push away a portion of this fan base, but they'd be back with a few wins down the road or at worst at the start of next year unless the team totally collapses the remainder of this year. A loss would make the odds of winning the Coastal longer than they are now, but not totally end our hopes.
So yeah...it's an important game. It's not a must win game. That said, the expectation of this program, no matter the current state of affairs, should be that we can beat Duke at home in primetime.
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Maybe its just me but I dont think expecting to win and a must-win are the same thing. I expect a win but don't consider it a must win, although I agree the margin for error is nearly gone if we don't. I wouldnt have created the post if I didnt think there were valid discussion arguments either way.
I agree they're different, but if we can't beat Duke at home at night, given the way we've played thus far this year and last, I feel pretty safe in assuming we're not going to win (maybe not even compete for) the Coastal, which isn't a monumental feat in itself.
I'd call this game a must-win against almost any opponent, surely Duke.
Yes. If we start 2-2 and 0-2 in conference then we are not going to sniff the coastal crown.
Yes.
Not to be moral-victory-guy, but I'm more concerned with actions than outcomes right now:
If we do these things, we should get the W
+ RUN GAME. this is a good run defense any life is good life.
I considered this, but I honestly didn't know what I'd consider 'reasonably good' right now. I think 175 yards of rushing (not including sacks) would be a good baby step in the right direction.
But I think this will be driven by correctly executing the read option
Great point. turnovers are huge. IIRC, we lead the country in TO's lost? That is not a winning formula at any level of football.
Yea, I'm looting for some competency from Willis. If he turns in another BC-like performance and keeps his job against Miami, I'm out for the rest of the season.
Here, here! Bill Connelly values turnovers at 5 points each (expected value of points not scored + expected points that oppononent scores).
Think about that. 25 point swing against BC. 10 point swing against ODU and Furman.
When is any game not a "must win"? What game are we like "Yeah we can lose. We're cool"?
Bama and Clemson.
Speak for yourself.
"Must win" is pretty useless without context. Must win for the division? Must win to be in the playoffs? Must win for a coach to not get fired? Must win for team morale? Must win to be bowl eligible?
The answer changes based on the context.
Since we're going to run the table and make it into the playoffs with 1 loss, yes this is a must win.
I don't know that it is a must win but it's definitely a "we better friggen win."
I feel the same way about this Duke game as I did about last year's Duke game. Hopefully the outcomes are similar.
If we throw no picks, I think we win this game by 14. If we run the ball really well, I also think we win by a decent amount. If we play like we did the last two games, I think it's a squeaker.
This is a must win
Unfortunately I'm expecting a loss
And this site just may implode.
We've struggled way too much with worse competition the last two weeks. If we don't turn the ball over we have a shot though.
Yes. This team needs to start winning at home, particularly against bad teams.
This is absolutely a must win for me. If we don't win, you know what I'm gonna do? I'm gonna watch the rest of the football games from the weekend, get through another week of work, and then cheer for the Hokies the following Saturday.