Let's pretend Fuente wasn't an option in 2015 to replace CFB.
After the 2015 season, there were 29 FBS coaching changes. (Link Here). In 2016, there were 21 FBS coaching changes (Link Here).
Those are the coaches that were "on the market" to replace CFB. With the benefit of hindsight, which of those coaches would you have wanted? Just some thoughts:
1) You still need an "offensive guy" in order to retain Bud Foster at DC. (Sorry Barry Odom and Kirby Smart)
2) There are guys on this list who would leave VT for other jobs because of hometown ties (Herman to Texas, Frost to Nebraska)
3) There are guys who would cause our fanbase to riot (Lane Kiffin)
4) There are guys that it seemed like possible replacements that were not on either list (Chad Morris & Dan Mullen were the ones I could dig up).
If you tease out the list, the names that jump out to me are not awe inspiring: PJ Fleck, Matt Rhule, Dino Babers and Matt Campbell.
Dan Mullen seemed like a real candidate but he wanted too much money.
Is one of those guys your choice? Another guy on those lists? Another guy not on the list (Foster?)
I bring this up because I've been a Fuente defender and apologist over the past 18 months. I gave him a pass last year because of how weird everything was (losing our four best defensive players and our starting QB before the meat of conference play, Bud going through a divorce, Fuente having to fire his best friend and co-DC etc.).
Two weeks ago, almost everyone on TKP wanted Fuente's head on a spear a la Lord of the Flies. I was close to having my own heel turn. A QB change and two wins later, it seems things have calmed down.
I still think Fuente is a good coach. I still think Fuente was the right hire and 2018 happened because a lot of exogenous shit happened all at once. This year, BC sucked and Duke was even worse. But honestly, even with 20/20 hindsight, there aren't a lot of guys on the two lists above that I believe are standard deviations better than Fuente.
Comments
Now is the time to realize the control group (Fuente's 1st four years) is set. We need more data (years) to adequately measure his true progress via a treatment group. I consider the end of this season the start of the intervention/treatment group regarding how I will analyze his coaching tenure.
If the "control group" is four years, how long is the "treatment group?" This isn't a science experiment, and we cannot afford to act like it is one.
Not a science experiment at all. I am just speaking in statistical terms since everyone always tries evaluating coaches without enough data. Yes, clearly changes need to be made but analysis with only a few years worth of data is useless. Making decisions on an eye test alone is also useless. As for how long the treatment should be I don't know but a few years at a minimum.
Good lord. Let's assume a few years is three years. You're now telling me you need 7 years to evaluate a coach?
7 years sounds right since the first few years are all biased towards the previous coaches recruits and staff. It's unfortunate and not necessarily right in terms of fan base apathy but when using stats strictly, yes.
seven years just enough time for the prevailing zeitgeist to change about 65 times.
It was the 7th year before CFB had a season with over 6 wins here. Sounds about right
Ah yeah forgot about this straw man lol
I wish my employers would allow me 4+ years to let me get my shit straight and pay me a few million while doing it.
The issue is this is not a normal job or career path. So much is determined by external forces. I am by no means advocating for Fuente. I am just saying from an analytical perspective four years is not enough time.
I think you fire a coach as soon as they prove that they can't compete at the necessary (unless there's an obvious, obtainable upgrade). If you're of the believe that Fuente has proven that he can't compete at VT (I am not, but some people here are), then it's time to fire him.
I disagree. Every job or career path has external forces. I think there are far more similarities to a CEO and a Head Coach than you seem to think.
Good point actually. However, the main priority of a CEO is to make money. For a coach it is to win. Money is a side effect of winning.
A coach can't hire a new QB, ceo can hire anyone they want to do the job. A coach has to recruit and train people for the job. There is no instant hire some one with 20 years of experience. While the transfer portal can provide a need but that is hit or miss, and you cant make a player an offer they cant refuse (unless you're a Clemson bag man)
You know, I've seen a lot of things in my life. I'm surprised a squirrel in a football helmet and jersey hasn't been one of them.
Rich Rodriguez *ducks*
Something needs to go here...
Right. Over 12 hours.
We need a welfare check on HF, NOW!!!
Matt Campbell for sure
Campbell is the only guy on the list you can make a real argument for. You could argue Rhule as well (he took over IMHO the worst job in Power 5 football in Baylor immediately post-scandal; they're 6-0 to start this year after year 1 was a disaster and year 2 was respectable...fun fact, Baylor's QB is Michael Brewer's little brother).
Mullen was too much money. Bronco would have caused Bud to leave because Bronco is a defensive guy. Chad Morris has been awful at Arkansas. PJ Fleck would have been a hell of a recruiter but I personally think he's annoying at fuck (and Bud probably wouldn't have approved because he's annoying as fuck). Dino Babers is a good coach but I'm not convinced he's better than Fuente.
I agree with this assessment. Campbell, Rhule, or Fleck. I don't mind Fleck's personality. If Bud couldn't coach his defense because the HC is too annoying, then maybe it's time to retire. We all work, deal and live with and next to annoying people. That's life.
When Frank retired, I really wanted Rhule.
Shouldn't Bud be on the list?
Reading and bottles of wine will get after ya...
I think he gets six years, that's enough time to get a full roster of his players, a trend either way in recruiting, and development of players and on the field performance.
I like fuente. I'm luke-warm on Cornelson.
At the time I don't think there was a better coach that we could have gotten as you have mentioned. Fuente was one of the hottest coaches on the market at the time along with Herman. Everyone knew once Texas opened up Herman was headed there. Fuente was the right choice at the time. We still have at least 2 more years to finally say if he's still the best option.
Plus as much as some people want him gone, I don't know who now is around that would appease the fans and would be an upgrade.
I'm ice cold on Cornelson. Luke-warm at best on Vice (mostly due to his recruiting). If Fuente is serious about running the ball, bring me Matt Canada. Corn has been given time to figure out how to run the ball (w/o beating up the QB) and just simply hasn't gotten it done.
Matt Canada is the king of the jet sweep - does our fanbase really want that? I think it would be Cornelson 2.0 - although I think our offense works when executed (what one doesn't though?).
I think he is an excellent OC, but everywhere he goes people question his play calling. I guess that is every fan base these days...
I don't know who now is around that would appease the fans and would be an upgrade.
I would be stoked to see Shane in a Dabo/CEO type head coach role.
My first (and heart) choice was Bud, and let him hire the best high-octane OC he could find (he had previously stated this is what he would do). He promotes Torrian to DC and still works with DB's.
The name that excited me the most when I first heard about it (on TKP, I believe) was Mullen. If you can win in Starkville, you can build the premier ACC Coastal program.
Agreed, I was pretty hopeful for Mullen. But I honestly didn't think he would end up being here for any decent length of time before $omeone el$e came knocking, had he come to Blacksburg.
Do you think Bud would have Promoted Torian to DC? I would think it would have been Wiles just given the pure number of years they've been together.
A really good question. Wiles has always struck me as being pretty content where he is and a company man when it comes to Beamer/Bud. I think he would (potentially) happily take a pay raise and associate/assistant HC title and let Torrian become DC. If someone has inside info to the contrary I'm fine to be told this assessment is dead wrong. However, if you might recall back in the late 2000's when Beamer wasn't expected to retire soon and things were still going strong for us, all the talk was about Bud succeeding Beamer (natural when things are going well) and into the 2010's I remember lots of chatter about Torrian being the next DC in that scenario. I don't if that had any legs with people who matter, but that was definitely the consensus opinion.
Scott Satterfield.
In 2015, he was coming off an 11-2 season at App State, their 2nd season in FBS after joining the Sun Belt.
At the time I would have liked Chad Morris, but he's not doing so well. Though in a different and super tough position.
I'm still not convinced that Chad Morris couldn't be a successful head coach in a different situation. He's a solid recruiter (11 blue chip guys in his 2019 Arkansas class after a 0-8 season in the SEC, avg recruit rating 88.54), is the main reason Deshaun Watson went to Clemson, and the SEC West is the toughest division to coach in college football. I would be interested to see a glimpse into an alternate reality where we get Chad back then.
He'd be a hell of a hire to replace Cornelson if Arkansas fires him.
I would be very OK with this.
I 100% agree, he took over a shitty SMU program and changed their culture and now they are winning. And now he is at a program that a couple coaches have killed. So the jury is sort of out, but I dont think the door should be closed on him.
There's no one I'm really excited about right now. I think Jeff Scott, Tony Elliott and Alex Grinch are high-potential hires, but they are both unproven as head coaches.
Honestly, I still have faith in Fuente because of his time at Memphis and first season at VT. I think he needs a staff around him that can better recruit the midatlantic, and maybe tweak the offensive staffs a bit, but do believe (perhaps unreasonably) that he can turn this around.
EDIT: I misunderstood the OP. Clemson OC's and Grinch are the two most intriguing coaching hires right now IMO, but like I said, both are high risk. As far as applying hindsight to the 2015 coaching search, I think Fuente was the correct choice in 2015, and I think he still is today. Other options I would've entertained would be Bud Foster and Chad Morris.
Overall, I think Fuente was the right hire then, and I think he's the right hire now. We still have half a season left, going to be interesting to see how we progress.
If Clemson loses one of their Co-OC's soon I expect it to be Tony Elliot. Jeff Scott is one of the biggest Clemson homers on the planet. I wouldn't be shocked if he is a lifer there, but perhaps he could be lured away by head coach ambition/money if it was substantial enough.
it will be interesting to see who replaces dabo eventually. i have always thought jeff scott would be a clemson-lifer as well. seems like elliott is the hotter name for head coaching positions, so it's likely he will be gone by the time dabo moves on. if anyone manages to hire scott away, for any role, i think he jumps at the opportunity to go back to clemson for sole OC or head coach.
*cough* *cough* Bronco Mendenhall *cough* *cough*
People would have been rioting for the past 4 years about recruiting (instead of just the last 1), if we had hired Bronco.
Whit's logic (it made sense at the time and it makes sense now) is that he wanted Bud to stay on DC and pair him with an offensive guru. Bronco is a defensive guy by trade, it wouldn't have made sense.
Also based on this ESPN article, even if Bud agreed to stay on at DC, I don't think he was interested in VT. Here a quote I found damning:
IMHO, there's a little Buzz in Bronco. I don't think he was up for replacing a legend. He strikes me as a guy who wanted to take a garbage program and make it his own.
Too bad Buzz didn't want to keep said garbage program. Going to be interesting to see where the program goes now.
Nope, I don't want a Bronco, or any other coach who I think has a ceiling anywhere near this program. Bronco's a good match for UVA, but he's not getting 10 wins more then once every 5 seasons at best. I didn't want him at VT then, and I don't now.
Good topic. I tried to type out my thoughts and discovered I really don't know how I feel about this. I am interested in everyone's sober analysis.
Here is what I know for sure:
-When the pieces are right our offense looks very dangerous.
-Bud deserved a shot at HC.
Who says those that post on TKP are sober?
Ha. Certainly not me!
I just get tired of the post-Duke "fire everyone immediately" hot takes. This is a premise for talking about our coaching situation that I actually find interesting.
My sobriety has little to do with my opinions on whether or not Fuente should be our head coach, if I'm being honest.
my first choice was Fuente. after that, i had two preferences...scott satterfield, and then someone no one was mentioning...bronco mendenhall.
Lincoln Riley
Easy winner for me. Could have poached him from ECU when he was a much lesser known, yet very successful, commodity. Hard to think any P5 program had the insight into ECU that VT did.
Would we have really been happy about hiring a coach who had been an OC at a ECU for 4 years and Oklahoma for less than a season? We talk about Fuente's coaching staff not having enough Power 5 experience, but would have been cool with a guy with less than a season of coordinator experience at a Power 5 and no head coaching experience taking the reins from Beamer?
If we're basing this off of his time after Fuente's hire and his 2 OC years at Oklahoma then sure, but in 2015.... i'm not sure we would have been so happy.
Might not have been happy at the time, but Riley would have scored some touchdowns in the second half of P5 games, I guarantee you that. We would have loved him when he was able to put more than 30 points on GT or Pitt.
Right i get that. That's why i was saying if we're judging this retrospectively, i'm right there with you. But, if we think he should have been a candidate in 2015, i don't think he would have been well received by Tech fans. Also, if we don't bring in a QB transfer in 2016 and we struggle big time with Motley under center, this board would have been on fire after we gave him the job over Bud.
I thought Fuente was a top 2-3 candidate at the time we hired him, and I was very happy with it because I have some insight on what a dumpster fire Memphis was when he took over. I think most VT fans would have had some reservations hiring an "ECU" coach over Bud, sure but only because we let ECU beat us enough times to hate them and overcompensate for our not being able to get first downs on ECU's 100th ranked defense.
Very true some people would have questioned it just out of disdain for ECU. Some because he didn't have head coaching experience. I'm all for the approach of giving an up and coming young guy with an offensive mind control of the program, but just have to be willing to give him time. I don't think Riley would have had immediate success at Tech because well, we aren't Oklahoma. Obviously in the long run he would have obviously been a great hire. I'm just saying this board would have crapped itself if thats who we had brought in in 2015 instead of giving it to Bud.
Agreed
I thought that was the entire point of this thread.
Right so i'm saying if we are just using information we had in 2015, I think our fans would have ripped Whit for hiring Riley with his resume at that point. If we allowed to look back at it and judge it based off of what's happened the last 4 years, then of course Riley would be an amazing head coach. The OP made it seem like we were doing the Option #1.
yes i agree
Does Riley leave Oklahoma for VT after the 2015 season if Stoops and Co. offer him the HCIW title under the table?
This is the real concern with a what-if involving Lincoln Riley. How long would we have him, because it would be silly to have assumed it would ever be long-term.
True, but hiring a coach based on him not leaving for a top 5 CFB job at some point is not the way to go, IMO. It's Oklahoma... they could probably get an interview with Saban.
I agree it would still be worth it, but the longevity of his tenure here would be the primary concern longterm. If we have him for 1-2 years, that's probably a great 1-2 years, but then we gotta move on to someone else.
We have a lot of fans who gaslight themselves into think we are going to get another lifer. I hear all this talk about how we need someone who understands Blacksburg and the culture and is here for the long haul blah blah blah. That's not going to happen again.
Agree- and I don't want a lifer to be honest. I was hoping Fuente would elevate the program to the point that he could get a huge job. If he did that, we would have raised our recruiting profile, won some big games, etc. I'd be very happy with that in the current landscape. What I wasn't hoping for was to be 4 years in and being underdogs to Wake and UNC in Lane. That's regression, not elevation.
We would have loved the results so who cares how angry some people would have been at the hire.
The perfect thing to do would've been to poach him when we hired Lefty.
It would've been a lot like hiring ODU's DC after this season, which may actually happen.
I'd still take Fuente. What has really distorted the perception is that the rebuilding year(s) were not year 1 and 2, rather 3 and 4. This was forecast as well, I just forget which article I saw it on but essentially he was expected to do well in his first two seasons and then the true rebuilding would start.
The reason I would still take Fuente is because, looking at 2019, we are in a clear period of rebuilding. I would want a coach who has a proven track record of being able to build a culture and build a program for success. Fuente took over what was, at the time, one of the worst FBS football programs in Memphis. He competed with with SEC powerhouses (tennessee, alabama, etc) and took that program to a be a top 25 program. He did that, largely, with the staff TKP is currently trying figure out who to tar and feather first.
This isn't to say I am not frustrated with the situation, this isn't to say that I am not skeptical. But this staff took a worse/less reputable program and brought them into the national picture. I believe two more years will really pay dividends if this fan base can be patient. Heck, that Duke loss/Miami win could be a galvanizing moment and this team could still go 9 wins this season...I find that unlikely but let's just let the season play out. Whit has his finger on the pulse, I don't think there is a single person on this website more ITK than Whit and how important the money the football program brings in.
I agree with this.
I also agree. I think Fuente and his staff approached VT the same way they approached Memphis. And who wouldn't after having that kind of success? I think what he has discovered, and what none of us really anticipated (at least not me certainly), is that building a program from nothing with no expectations, and taking a program with past success and extremely high expectations, are two pretty different things. When you start losing in the latter situation, any issues with player buy-in or culture rear their head quickly and dramatically. There was real fall-out from the ODU loss, and I think it's honestly been hard to get a handle on it. I think other teams have also very effectively used the negativity to recruit against us this past cycle. We know how much one bad cycle can hurt for a long time.
In summary: the delayed re-build got hit with a cloaked torpedo, and this whole thing is going to be a roller coaster for a while. It's possible that getting a new coach could hit the reset and right the ship quicker, but it seems equally possible that we would get someone of lesser caliber (less success elsewhere) who would struggle with the similar issues for at least the same amount of time. Its gonna be tough, but I think our only choice is to be patient for at least this season, and likely another.
Good thoughts. What if (IMO, its a good possibility) we finish 5-7 this season? Would you still say the same? Just curious.
Not OP, but it depends who is out there. You don't fire people to prove a point, you fire people because you can upgrade.
Interesting thought on Foster, if he were HC is there any guarantee he isn't retiring this year or in the next couple?
I think Fuente is the guy. As much crap as we give other assistants, he is still building this program. Lot of folks point out Vice as great on recruiting and we have to remember the majority of the OL is now those top recruits he just brought in. It may be rough now, but in 3-4 years, our team is going to be experienced and deep. Something that has and is currently a struggle.
Players seem to buy into Fu too. Seems similar to when CFB first came to town.
Bud is my number one. Would have been interested to hear what his plan was and who he would have tried to bring in. Bronco was my follow up to Fuente for an outside hire though.
What is really interesting is what does that 2016 season look like if we don't bring in Fuente, which in turn means we don't bring in Jerod Evans? I'm not sure it would have been pretty on here after that coach's first season with Motley under center.
Defense was good enough in 2016 and 2017 to cover for a potentially weaker offense, and we know this for sure about 2017 at least because the offense was pretty shit against P5 competition that year anyway. Though perhaps 2016 wouldn't have been as a special without Fuente/Evans. Couple of really solid offensive performances that year.
That said, there's also the hypothetical that the new coach would have been able to bring someone in like Evans as their QB late in the process. This is not so uncommon. Mack recently was able to come in late and pull Howell to UNC to be his guy from FSU. Let's say our guy was Dan Mullen or Chad Morris, I'm sure they had a few QB's they had been recruiting for a few years they could have likely gotten one to follow him/flip to VT.
2nd thought, is there any coach in the country who would have been able to get more out of a QB like Brendan Motley than Dan Mullen, who almost beat Alabama in 2017 with Nick Fitzgerald? The fact that he was able to produce a solid offense with Nick Fitzgerald in 2016 and 2017 is pretty incredible when you see how Joe Moorhead struggled to replicate their scoring offense despite Fitzgerald having all that experience under his belt when he arrived.
Interesting Notes:
-Miss State in 2016 finished 34.5 in Offensive SP+, tied with us in the same year, though they were ranked two spots higher. Nick Fitz at QB.
-Miss State in 2016 finished with a 32.5 (39th in the country) in Offensive SP+ again with Nick Fitz. With Josh Jackson under Fuente we finished with an OffSP+ score of 27.8 (71st in the country).
I think we got lucky with Evans. He was the number 1 JUCO quarterback in the country. If these guys were able to bring in another JUCO, they would have been worse than Evans. If they were to bring in a recruit from high school, they would have been a true freshman. I think there's a decent chance Motley would have been our starting quarterback in 2016 had Fuente not been hired. That wouldn't have been the worst thing in the world. Motley did a decent job stepping in for Brewer in 2015.
Yea I agree. Anything can happen, but that is a lot of what ifs.
I'm sure Dan Mullen could have possibly had a solid offense with Motley and Jackson, but thats why he was out of our price range apparently. Right now though after 3 average years at SMU, Chad Morris is 0-11 in the SEC at Arkansas and offense is not their calling card.
Matt Campbell Please
I wanted Bud as HC for a guaranteed minimum of 10 years so he meets the head coaching years requirement to be inducted to the CFB Hall of Fame.
...and also for him to bring in a high-octane OC.
I'm fine with Fuente. I just think he brought the wrong OC with him.
They'll let a blimp in, but not Bud
Goodyear Blimp becomes honorary member of CFB HOF
I know it's just honorary (whatever that means) but still...
Surprised nobody has mentioned Tom Herman...I'm pretty sure he was still OC at anOSU but he would have been expensive. At the time, his reputation was sky high.
Given 20/20 hindsight, 100% he leaves when the Texas job opens up.
Herman was HC at Houston where he turned them into a really good team. They went 13-1 in 2015. Herman was my #1 at the time but I knew there was a very slim chance he was coming here.
Herman was a big big rumor. I believe there was some mutual interest. I remember everyone was talking about Herman in the stands at Beamer's last home game. There was a lot of smoke there.
I had always thought Herman was a playful rumor.
Last week, one of my clients shared an email with me with how close it almost happened.
About a week prior, someone on TKP mentioned Herman was a done deal, but wanted his own staff, so no Bud.
Sounds like a lot of smoke was there for Herman being a Hokie.
I still like the Fuente hire.
Where I think it all went wrong was with the assistants he brought with him. We needed guys who could recruit, and this staff isn't capable of it.
This is also where I think the Mike Young hire knocked it out of the park.
If he replaces assistant's hopefully they know how to retain as well as recruit.. equally problematic at this point.
I might be mistaken but I believe Mike Leach was available at the time. That would have been a lot of fun but I seriously doubt he would come here.
Leach would love working at VT. He loves the mountains, and he'd fit in well with the local Appalachians.
Mike Leach is nothing if not entertaining, but he's been at Wazzu since 2012.
If we can play the "what if" game though, it definitely would've been fun to see these 2 with a Bud Foster Defense
Bud. Because he deserved a shot at HC somewhere, why not here? And if for no other reason than simple curiosity to see what he could do.
Does it have to be a person?
#HOAT4HC
Dan Mullen would've been solid.... a few dollars short when it came down to it.
Was Mullens Whit's number 1 choice? Was there an offer to him?
Don't know for a fact if an offer was given (normally offer won't be given until its 1000% signed off) but things got deep in the process. VT looking for $ and Mullen looking for assistant coaching options within budget and it ultimately fell short.
If money isn't a problem and Knowing what I know now - Dan Mullen
If hindsight could only work in the present. I can't say I am unhappy with CJF, the thing with him that I can't understand is he is too hard headed when it comes to decisions. He preached about Willis winning the job and Hendon not doing enough in practice to beat him out.......Look at us now a little faith restored.
Anyways to answer the hindsight question - it would of been nice to pluck Ryan Day from BC before his move to Philly.
Daniel Tosh?
I say we should have just said to hell with it all and gone rouge. The hire none other than yours truly Butch "Mother F***ing" Davis. Excellent talent evaluator who doesn't mind wallering in the dirty underbelly of college football and a bagcraft aficionado. In fact, Coach Davis is currently chilling at FIU where he has gone 18 - 12 the last 3 years and playing in 2 bowl games winning the Bahama Bowl no less while cruising down the water slide at Atlantis. This is FIU. The Baltic Avenue of the Florida football playing schools. Sure the tar holes might get a little upset stealing a page from their book but we would be flipping the bird to the entire ACC not just them.
Bronco Mendenhall
Dan Mullen was my top choice (and Mark Richt but glad that didn't pan out) back in 2015. I would have seriously broken the bank to hire him. If not, I'd be satisfied with Matt Rhule or PJ Fleck in hindsight. I really didn't think Rhule would do well at Baylor, or if he did it would have taken a long time and still end up peaking out at 8-4. What he's done there so far is beyond incredible and that team is highly underrated right now. Fleck's work at Minnesota right now is impressive too, although he seems most comfortable in the Midwest.