#Hokies open as 16.5-point underdogs against Notre Dame.— Andy Bitter (@AndyBitterVT) October 27, 2019
It's already up to 18 at the time of posting.
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#Hokies open as 16.5-point underdogs against Notre Dame.— Andy Bitter (@AndyBitterVT) October 27, 2019
It's already up to 18 at the time of posting.
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With home field advantage, SP+ has a similar number.
Tech is gonna go up to south bend and give Notre Dame and their fans something they'll never forget
Shhhh. Let's keep it to ourselves and surprise them.
That's right. A bourbon infused JASONinARLINGTON.....and a win.
Agreed! -17.5 is crazy talk. Notre Dame is very beatable and we are picking up momentum at the right time
My how quickly things change in the world of college football. Remember that time when no one thought VT had any chance of covering the 14 points by which Miami was favored?
In before "Never tell me the odds" gif.
ND rush D has been a hot mess all year. If its QP with 6 OL, DK at TB and 2 TE we hopefully man ball them in to green dust.
It's going to be Hooker. QP might get a couple packages but Hooker will play the majority barring another injury
I hope its HH.. Thought he'd be out and it would be QP. Is he cleared?
Don't think there's been an "official" announcement by the team yet but I do know he's been a full participant in practice this week & would expect him to be next week as well
My inside sauces tell me that QP is getting the start. Hooker is running around but they don't want to rush him back. Dalton and McClease will be in the backfield as King was skipping practices due to his GF from Florida being in town....
I'm sorry, what? King was skipping practice for his GF being in town? Like skipping without permission?
sadly, yes.
I probably would've done the same for some ass back in the day.
Is his GF a physical therapist working on his shoulder?
McClease and King deserve some love in this game too. Gotta gas 'em.
via GIPHY
VT is a 2-0 as under dogs this year.
3-2 as favorites
I don't bet but I'd take the 16.5
Still no word on HH!
Does not compute as good catholic boys dont know how to handle hookers
They made Hooker an offer two weeks before we did.
I never realized that he committed to VT and then took official visits to other schools after committing.
Any word on Hooker or Farley for this week?
I like our chances if Hooker is 100%.
Any news on Hooker? I imagine the line is dependent on that. Still those are about what i expected
I really think this team can cover this spread as long as we don't fall apart like last years ND game after giving up the big run. This team has shown some resilience the last few games that has me much more confident heading into this game.
The turnover by Willis right before half was a killer.
That was rough for sure, but for me the moment I felt changed the game drastically was when they busted a 95 yard TD run backed up to their EZ after having -5 rushing yards to that point. We really didn't make another good play after that. It just felt like it broke the will and confidence of the team.
I didn't see anyone else ask. Any word on Hooker?
Not sure if sarcastic or serious as you're probably the fifth person I've seen ask this weekend across the site, but the answer is we *might* hear something at Fuente's press conference tomorrow
As I posted above, I don't think there's been an "official" announcement by the team yet but Hooker hasn't had the "non-contact" designation in practice so he should be fine
Appears he is good to go. Seems he actually got hurt on the play before he got hurt according to Fuente.
So basically Vegas thinks the ACC sucks and our turnaround doesn't mean much against that sort of competition. I would tend to agree although I'm also not totally convinced of ND being anything special. I think we beat the spread, if nothing else.
Or the metrics say that ND is nearly two touchdowns better than us because that's what Vegas uses to judge the lines.
Vegas is not in the business of supporting conference narratives or Notre Dame bias. They have algorithms and experts dedicated to setting the line at the place where the house will make the most money.
That said, the ACC does suck and we probably need a larger sample before we can be certain our turnaround is of the long-term variety.
I also agree with you. I think we can cover this spread as long as we don't lose our cool. Last year we could have kept it respectable if the team didn't completely cave in after the big run. If we avoid that collapse I agree we cover this spread. The problem for us, and by extension Vegas, is that there is not enough proof yet that we are no longer capable of a Duke like collapse.
Yep there is nothing in our stellar performances against juggernauts Miami and UNC to suggest we are ready for a respectable spread against a legitimate top 25 (or better) team. We have a few reasons for hope but an unbiased 3rd party sees no reason to put stock in this team, which is why the line has grown since posting.
I'mma stop you right there. Vegas picks where the line starts. The betting public determines how the line moves. For all you know, a bunch of rabid ND fans saw ND (-16.5) as easy money and bet on it, shifting the spread up to 18.
I see one sight has the line moving from 17 to 17.5, with 74% of the bets on VT.
Is that the # of bets or the total $ on the Hokies?
# of bets. You have to subscribe to delve into the money breakdown. I don't care that much about it...
Normally, I would say homer bets are a wash, but I admit that ND fanbase would overpower VT in numbers.
To be sure, Vegas is professional about where they set their line, after all they are kept honest by the fact they have a lot of money riding on getting it right. They don't need to think that the ACC is bad, I'm sure they have some quantifiable strength of schedule component to the calculation that we most certainly would have scored poorly in.
Sort of a side note, I would be careful about hiding behind the idea that they have "algorithms" doing all the heavy lifting for them for a lot of reasons. I don't know how they actually crunch the numbers, but my intuition is they're leaving a lot of information on the table by not leaving room for some subjective input. What I imagine is, they probably have something similar to what the BCS used to use: a sort of average of different computer scores and human-expert provided educated guesses.
I would imagine that they have a numerical system set up, and then assign score adjustments to various things like injuries and coaching changes.
They do have algorithms that simulate each game many thousands of times. They then have a team of analysts evaluate the results and massage the line in such a way to maximize their profit margin. After that, the line moves based on demand.
Believe it or not, the sportsbook is typically the least profitable department in a casino as it can take over three hours for the result to be determined. If a book makes a 10% profit on all the bets placed that weekend, that's considered a huge success.
Depends on which ND shows up. The ND team that played Ga can play with any team in the nation defensively. The ND that went to Michigan can be beat by any team. I also think that we are much better and can play with anyone if Hooker can give his normal output....what worries me is that our Dline is ok at best and ND still has studs on their Oline. Our O will need to put up points because I doubt we stop there running game....
No, Vegas thinks the public thinks the ACC and VT aren't very good. And Vegas would be right about the public if the line doesn't move much.
Before the ND loss, I thought it would open at about VT +17 or so. But after the loss, I was thinking it might drop to VT +14 or +15. VT+17 seems a bit high to me, but I wouldn't be shocked by that line missing in either direction by a bunch.
This seems hard for me to wrap my head around. Wouldn't Vegas want to set a line where half the bets fall on each side?
When we see statements like "Vegas was right" does that mean they were actually wrong?
Vegas does set the line where they think they'll get 50% of bets (or, rather, money) on either side. I'm not sure what you're struggling with.
Exactly. Vegas is not in the business of predicting scores. It's in the business predicting the betting public's view of the game - and then adjusting from their original prediction to minimize it's risk exposure.
Now those aren't necessarily mutually exclusive and information can change which affects the public's betting. But it's not really that hard to set or guess at an opening line. Computers are the foundation for much of it, not some wizard behind the curtain. I'm sure there are even formulas to account for emotional betting on teams like Notre Dame.
Still most opening lines move a little - and some move quite a bit.
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/guides/betting-101/how-bookmakers-generate-odds/
So....im going to vegas this friday for a week. ive never watched a game at a sportsbook. I intend to go somewhere and put $50 down on the Hokies taking the points and watch the game. Any suggestions on where to go?
*Edit* - We're staying at Circus Circus - should i just go to the one there? anybody ever been there?
Caesars
MGM Grand has a good sports book.
Spend some of your gambling money on a nicer hotel/casino.
But Circus Circus was in a James Bond movie!
We are only staying there friday and saturday...our timeshare week starts sunday at tahiti village.
Just go to their book...I used to go to Caesars but they now charge just to sit in the book and watch the games. Wynn would be a good option as it's closer to Circus Circus...or the Stratosphere.
They charge just to sit and watch now? Is that all the time or during hot seasons like March Madness?
I haven't been to Caesar's since 2017, but there was definitely not a seat fee then.
Yeah...they started it last year on college football Saturdays...I think its $75 and up. Bellagio is still free, that's where I go now.
Cosmopolitan is probably my favorite book but it's small and fills up quickly and I believe its $300 to reserve a table or couch.
Disappointing but it makes sense. I've never been to the Cosmo but I assume it's swanky inside.
It's small- but Cosmo overall might be my fav casino. Park MGM (Monte Carlo) and Mandalay Bay both have great sports books. Emeril's at Venetian/palazzo is cool too.
That's insane. I was there march madness 2017 and you could sit in the Caesars book for free. Wow. That's surreal really - never seen that at a sports book in vegas
Sadly, its commonplace now. I was at the Paris for March madness in 2017 and we were charged $50 for the worst table in the book and the crew that bought it originally never showed up. In 2018 Caesars didnt charge for the front row but all other rows did. They used to charge only for the high roller section right behind the bar but now it's the whole book. So now you have clusterfoxtrot with about 1000 people watching the games near the bar and very few people actually seated in the viewing area.
I think lagasse's stadium at Palazzo started this when it opened about 10 years ago but I can actually see why they do it as that book is amazing.
I would pay- not more than 50 bucks- to sit at Emerils- that place rules. Those seating areas are awesome.
Go to the Westgate. It's the biggest, I think. You can bet a few ponies during halftime. When I went it was a sloooooow night. The best thing on was harness racing and Japanese soccer.
I'm pretty sure betting on Japanese soccer is the definition of a problem.
Yeah. They had to put something on the largest TV in the free world. It was late July and the baseball games had all ended.
Looks like I can walk there in 5 min from Circus Circus-
Yeah you aren't on the strip, although I think they did just redo the sports book.
I thought I remembered Circus Circus being nearby.
No way...its at least 15 minutes and I'd take the over on that...the westgate is a 15 minute walk from the Wynn
Yep- those buildings are further apart than you think. Circus Circus is "up there"
I don't think I've seen it posted here yet......................but any news on HH?
/s
Guys.....we've already won. This is free money.
Hokies beat Heels > Heels beat Cocks (giggity) > Cocks beat Dawgs > Dawgs beat Irish.
Science.
Have the upvote you animal
To continue:
Irish beat Hoos > Hoos beat Pitt > Pitt beat Duke > Duke beat Hokies.
I'm a lot of fun at parties.
C'mon, we all know that only two teams from the Coastal can be used or the transitive property is invalidated. So, we have already beat the Irish.
So we're only beating ourselves, you say?
After seeing them against Michigan, I think we have a shot. The rain probably had a bit to do with it this past weekend but I have never really been impressed by their offense under Kelly. I also think that UM gave Bud a blueprint to work with. If Hooker has a great game and if our OLine blocks like it did against UNC, I think we have a real shot. Lot of things need to go perfect though.
ND only beat UVa because the Hoos committed some costly turnovers...they've only looked good against UGA from what I've seen of them, and they lost that game.
Yeah this to me is the pretty classic ND hype wave. They look good until they get exposed in November. Don't get me wrong they're still the better team but they're not as good as they get made out to be every year.
Did they look good against UGA because UGA isn't good?
so how does this betting work...If we beat the 18 point odds for every dollars I bet, I get 18 or only the difference. What if we win? and where do I go to bet?
From watching the Michigan game...just keep running the ball off tackle, throw a few passes, make it ugly, wear them down, tired them out
If you take VT (+18), you will probably get something like 1.95:1 odds. That means if VT "wins" when you add 18 to their final score, you get your money back plus 95%.
Bet $10, get $19.50 back, come out $9.50 ahead.
It doesn't matter how much we win by or how close we lose by. It's binary.
Now a lot of sites will let you add or remove points at the expense of your payout. For instance, you could choose to take VT(+16) instead and have the payout move to, say, 2.2:1. Or, conversely, take VT (+20) and get 1.75:1. But remember this is stuff you do before you bet. Once you bet it's fixed.
Usually, but not always. Most games the vig is 10% of the amount wagered but I've seen it at 20% and 0% as well.
Pretty standard. Delaware you bet $11 to collect $20 if successful. it's 10 plus the 1 vig, which is 10%
Betting stuff is really complicated. Just send me the money, I'll take care of it, and tell you if you win.
Haha....this is why I don't gamble
lets see whether or not michigan has broken nd's will to live
The spread is because you are playing Notre Frickin Dame and it is nothing like playing North Carolina in a harsh rainy weather environment.
Meaning Michigan would have beat Tech 61.5 to 14 last Saturday.
Counterpoint: Danny Coale caught the ball
VT giving up 39 ppg to P5 teams. VT QB situation not clear. ND- last Saturday not withstanding - has a very good offense, number looks reasonable to me
Can you give examples showing they have a very good offense? Yes, their ppg is 35.6 ppg but lets take a closer look at NDs offense...
Per CFBstats.com
PPG vs P5 teams: 26.2 (2018: 30.9)
Total Offense vs P5: 348 yds/gm (2018: 430 yds/gm)
Long Plays from Scrimmages: 101st in country (2018: 23rd)
3rd down conversions: 70th in country (2018:32nd)
Passing Yds vs P5: 186 yds/gm (2018: 247 yds/gm)
2 things stick out to me. ND has regressed from last year, specifically Ian Book, and ND inflated most of their offensive stats by destroy the 2 non P5 teams they played this year. They averaged 60ppg and went for 580 yds/game in those 2 matches. I am not saying ND's offense is going to be a pushover but I just do not think they are very good either.
Does ND come out with a point to prove or do they pack it in for the rest of the season? Does VT have another terrible post-bye-week performance or do they come out firing on all cylinders? I'd LOVE to see us pull off the upset but I just don't see it. Maybe we cover the spread but a W seems like a longshot.
What will make a happy hokie07ME next saturday:
Last post-bye week had Willis starting. That will not be the case so I venture to say we won't have the same post-bye-week performance
I remember them going 3-9 that year lol.
Hate it or love it, the underdog's on top
Not sure what the total is but this game is screaming OVER...hence, take the UNDER
Currently see it at 58
247 chatter that QP will start. HH still injured. King in the doghouse for missing practice.
TIFWIW
How do you miss practice?
Anyway, seems like he stays in the doghouse. Is it he just can't get out of his own way adjusting to life on his own? Or bucking the system?
Some saying King won't play at all.
King apparently had a girlfriend in town which took priority over practicing...
Then......he deserves to be in the doghouse.
And they should seal his door shut with 'NBA' shirts.
Have also heard that Hunter is starting over Floyd
s p e c u l a t i o n below:
Floyd posted something about staying the course and god's plan yesterday. This has a loose correlation with football players any time they're going through something that may cause them to not see the field as much.
I feel like QP starting over Hooker is hugely contradictory to what the public has been told regarding Hooker's health.
Unless Hooker tweaked something again in practice, I feel like everyone will be pretty confused as to why he wouldn't be starting when they were just told he was practically 100% and practicing well.
The Hooker injury is worrisome to me. When your knee cap goes the wrong way, it's never going to just be 100% ok in less than a month.
That might be why QP4 is playing. In the long run, this game just isn't that important to us. We have already been eliminated from the CFP, so we are playing for the ACC CG. ND is a non-factor in that run.
I hope Hooker is healthy and can go. But if Quincy gets the start, or even if he sees time, I am rooting hard for the guy. Being a Chicago kid, getting a start at ND has to be an incredible feeling. Even a few packages to keep Hooker fresh would be a big boost. Let's hope both QBs ball out!
King in the doghouse is a big difference than his being injured last game. I hope he comes out of the doghouse with a fire in his eyes.
then we get this folks....
https://www.roanoke.com/sports/college/va_tech/virginia-tech-defensive-t...
At least it was the misdemeanor level.
I believe a misdemeanor is still grounds for at least a suspension and probably worse, at the discretion of Whit's office.
Edit: I was wrong. Punishment is determined by Whit's office, but it could be as small as a warning. https://policies.vt.edu/1035.pdf
TCB says he will play.
Who is TCB?
Insider on 247. Guess we will see tomorrow afternoon.