I of course wish we'd won in South Bend and clearly think we held up great to "the gut punch" ND squad. But I'm wondering: if our whole season were the past four games, how would you feel about our team?
Go Hokies!!
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Yes.
Kind of good, but cornselson still sucks.
that is all.
I would say Yes. Out of all the games, we have been uneven, even in the games that we won. But this team at least competes.
Out offense was willing to pull the plug on Willis and go with Hooker (who has to be still hurt, right?) and go with QP. They don't trust him to throw much.
My personal expectations was to have a gamblers chance at the Coastal and make a bowl game. I never thought this was a 10 win team.
Before the season, I thought this was an 8-4 team. After the Duke game, I thought this was a 5-7 team. Right now, I think this is an 8-4 team.
Over the first 4 games, we utterly failed to meet expectations. Over the last 4 games, we have slightly exceeded expectations overall, considering we went 1-1 against Miami and ND (with the loss coming by only one point) instead of the 0-2 I was expecting in preseason and played hard for well over 60 minutes against UNC. The last 4 games have given me hope that we should finish 3-1 down the stretch.
Partially OT - "Not trusting QP to throw" is a weird excuse given he was a 4*, elite 11 QP who has been in the system almost 3 years now. I get he didn't throw much in Hs, but if he's really as physically gifted as we hear, and as intelligent as he is, if the coaches still really don't trust him to throw, that should be an indictment on themselves.
In general, I think players have been meeting expectations the last couple games significantly more so than the coaches.
He was a 4* QB based on measurables and potential alone. He was mostly an option QB in high school, and hardly ever threw the ball. We knew going in that he would be a 2-3 year project, at best.
Also, he first enrolled on campus less than 17 months ago. "Almost 3 years" is categorically false, no matter how you slice it.
Just over a season and a half - you're right. I disagree it was entirely potential, there are plenty of kids with measurables that aren't 4* players. There are also very good qbs that don't make the Elite 11 who aren't solely potential guys. And I noted he was a project, but disagree in a 3 year project.
He is actually ahead of every realistic development schedule I heard.
Flat incorrect. Every kid's scouting report is individual and his was based on potential - mental make-up, physical talent and work ethic. Read the write-ups and watch the film. The kid threw 70 passes his senior season in a run-first simple offense. He is mentally fantastic, but just is an extremely raw passer. He has improved a bunch and will get better. Give him a reasonable timeframe.
Every reasonable scouting report has him as he wouldn't realistically be ready before his redshirt-soph./junior year. See the actual Elite 11 guys. Just because you read elite 11 and decided what the timeline should be doesn't make it accurate.
The continuous posts on these boards about how he should be a star and blaming him or the coaches is getting old and lacks any facts or context at all.
3 year project?
As already pointed out, didn't he just join the team last year?
Pretty sure he's responding to "2-3 year project, at best" with that. In any case, some people just aren't going to be happy unless everything is perfect.
He was 9 of 28...
Fans say the coaches didn't trust him to throw the ball. The stat line would say otherwise.
They did throw the ball, it wasn't effective, I'm not sure what people want. There's only two options. Run or pass?
If Hooker could have played, we would have completed 6 or 7 more passes, based on his average and won.
How many of those balls hit our receivers hands and bounced away? He's clearly not a polished passer, but our receivers didn't help him much on the balls he did put on them
Agreed. I haven't reviewed it yet, but it was at least 3 maybe more
This is what is so confusing to me. People keep saying he's not trusted to throw or couldn't make the throws but there were more than just one or two balls that literally hit our receivers in the hands and they did not catch. They bring those balls down and we don't struggle to move the chains. Everyone has to execute to make the play work and not just the qb.
Yeah. I'm not blaming Quincy I thought he had some poor throws but he made enough plays to win the game and receivers did not help out
I'm just saying...Hookers worst game he was 50% passing, even being pessimistic about his passing average, they would have competed around 14 passes.
But how many more drops were there in this game vs any other game? Receivers dropping a few catchable balls happens pretty much every game. I'm not trying to dog on QP, but I think its a bit misleading to say if the receivers had been better in this game that QPs numbers would be closer to Hooker's numbers without something to back it up. It assumes that receivers played near perfectly for Hooker but not QP, which I doubt is the case.
I don't have numbers, but I felt like there were way more easy catches that turned into drops than in any other game this year. Of the ones I remember offhand, Haze had 2, Tre had one, Robinson had one, Kaleb Smith had one, and I'm pretty sure Mitchell had one. Not to mention a few passes where the receiver could have made a play and didn't.
There was also plenty of lackluster route running to go with balls hitting hands and being dropped.
My dad kept calling out Turner whenever he was targeted and saying he wasn't very good. I figured he was having a down game.
At this point I would trust him a lot more going forward.
9 for 28 misses just how many bad drops there were in the game. I mean hit the receiver in the hands in stride and ended up an incompletion. There were also a few throws where you'd hope the receiver would make a route adjustment when the ball is in the air to make a better play on it. But what I liked the most about his play is that when he misses, he's missing to a point where at least the ball isn't going to be picked off. We are either going to catch it, or we'll have another down. With confidence and experience, he has potential to be a great QB for us.
and about 5 of those were drops.
Question? I used to hear about former MVP NFL QB Brian Sipe (yes I'm old) being compared and analysts saying he threw the most gentle catchable ball they had seen......meaning that the way he threw it made it much easier to control and catch.
Has anyone said anything about the mechanics of QP? Just wondering if it was a bad day for the receivers or if it's something else.
28 passes is a hell of a lot more than I thought they would let him throw. Patterson played a really good game against a a very good team in one of the storied stadiums in college football. But quincy is a spot passer right now. He is throwing to spots and he is very inaccurate. I am sure he will get better, but our staff let him throw a bunch.
Finally, it took Tyrod 2.5 years (of in game experience and splitting first team reps) before he could reliably and consistently throw an ACC caliber ball, so again. I think you need to adjust your expectations. I'm sure QP is smart, but this stuff takes time
This. People forget just how godawful Tyrod looked at times pre 2009 Nebraska. Flashes of brilliance with a lot of uneven play mixed in.
Great post with actual context and facts. Imagine that. Thank you
Tyrod as a true freshman was 10x better than QP has been as a passer. His game against Florida State in 2007 was absolutely magnificent. A truly special performance. He was throwing an ACC-caliber ball in that game for damn sure. That said, I agree with all your points about QP.
His 2008 season was a low point, but that's also the worst offensive talent I think we fielded until 2013 in my life as a fan. His receivers were true frosh Coale, true frosh Boykin, true frosh Dyrell Roberts, not one of them was ready to be a 1st or 2nd receiving option as true freshmen. and r-Fr. Xavier something who left the team, 280lb TE Greg Boone, an OL that couldn't pass block.
Also, the passing offense was more complicated for Tyrod. Our offense now, like the majority of offenses in college football at this point is based on making things simpler for the QB. Most spread offenses rely on pre-snap, half field, or 1-2 reads before you look to dump the ball off or run. It's much easier for a QB to come in to college and run these offenses because they are so simplified, and the offenses have largely migrated to most HS football teams as well so they are comfortable running them. Not to mention I think the choice to say 2.5 years instead of just 2 years seems a little unfair to me, he finished like top 5 in efficiency that 2009 season, he didn't wait until halfway through the season to start playing well. He entered that season a different QB, he just happened to play two of the best defenses in the country in the first 3 games (Alabama, Nebraska), and the game after that a Miami team that completely shut down the best GT offense PJ had (2009, arguably 2014). Also worth noting that 2009 was one of the best years for the ACC the entire time I've been watching college football, probably 2nd or 3rd best year with 2016 or 2013 ACC.
The point, though, was that although Tyrod was one of the best QBs to go through VT, it took time to develop him.
It's a counter to the argument that Fuente isn't developing his QBs.
I'm just thinking about 2008 and most of 2009, where I flinched every time Tyrod threw the ball. 2007 was before my time as a Hokie, so I'll defer to your analysis for that year.
You shouldn't have been flinching in 2009. He led the country in YPA with 9.5, was 13th in pass efficiency rating, and was not given the freedom to throw often on 1st, 2nd down (which have been proven to be the most efficient downs to throw the football) because we were so run-oriented that season. He was absolutely fantastic in 2009 for what our offense was and was a playmaker on 3rd down.
The 2009 Virginia Tech team finished 4th in SP+
12th in SP+ offense
2nd in Passing SP+
2nd in IsoPPP+ (explosiveness)
Ruthlessly efficient offense with Tyrod at the helm.
His 2007 game was a single game. If he had been as polished as you're making him out to be over the entire season, we wouldn't have spent the entire season flipping between him and Glennon. It took until his 3rd season with significant playing time (first as sole starter) before he truly became the QB that most of us remember fondly in hindsight.
Both times we resorted to alternating he and Glennon came after a severe ankle injury. Glennon played well both times, and we eased Tyrod back in with a QB rotation. The rotation is unlikely to occur without the ankle injuries.
tbd, sucks that we did not pull the upset since we are still not bowl eligible and I am not sure we can do 2-2 down the stretch but hopefully we keep showing some kind of O improvement as the D seems to be. I eagerly await the French dissertation to see if my untrained eye is truly seeing improvement or if it is just bourbon fueled optimism.
FWIW, we need to go 3-1 to be bowl elgible. We only get to use one of our two FCS wins towards the 6 win minimum required to go bowling. However, I think we could get a bid to a bottom tier bowl game based APR and fanbase size.Edit: counting is hard
Aren't we 5-3? Meaning 2-2 down the stretch will make us bowl eligible
The last 4 games looks good (or at least optimistic), but in a way just makes me even more pissed off at the way the team was prepared - or unprepared - for the first 4 games.
We scored 13 offensive points against ND and struggled on offense for the first half of UNC, and for much of the Furman game. That side of the ball is below expectations, especially since our head coach is supposed to be an offensive guy. The defense is playing better than last year, but pass defense remains mediocre because we can't generate pressure unless we blitz.
Agree with everything except your unc first half analysis. We had more than 250 yards of offense in the first half and after the bad fumble on the first series we went: Punt, TD, Punt, TD,TD. That's a solid first half.
Fair point
Based on how we played with our f-Fr QB in SB...if you don't think we can win the next four games with Hooker then I think you need to reevaluate. Are any of those wins guarantees? Hell no. This team is completely different and much more cohesive that it was before Miami.
Now let's beat the damn deacs and remind them what happens when they come to Lane Stadium.
EDIT: I'd argue most people thought we would be 6-2 right now preseason (2 losses coming for @Miami and @ND) and we are only one win from that. It's been a roller coaster of emotions for the year, but let us not focus on the last few games and focus on the ones ahead.
Quincy Patterson started his first game. And it was at Notre Dame.
Notre Dame.
Do you know how many first time starters would have completely melted down in that atmosphere?
I would suggest that my expectations have been met and are exceeding expectations right now.
This^^^^^^!!
QPs eyes Saturday:
Moral victories against 15th ranked - not top 3 - ND- are where we are I guess?
I see you got that password situation worked out. Good for you.
Wake is ranked. If we keep it close against them, we should all be happy right?
the comment you replied to has nothing at all to do with the score of the game or whether or not the opponent was ranked, so once again you're arguing against a point that isn't being made.
If someone had told us after Miami that QP would be making his first career start @ND, most of us would have assumed the worst and we just plain didn't get the worst, unless you think a loss is a loss and a win is a win and no context surrounding that matters?
in a thread asking if we are meeting expectations after miami, someone comments that QP's first collegiate start was @ND and he didn't look lost, and your reply insinuates that looking for a moral victory in that is beneath what our program should be...
...but in the other thread you posted this:
so either you didn't expect to win the game @ND, or you did?
I know where the program is, and I also don't claim moral victories - ever. There is no such thing.
I dont care how it is labeled, I feel better about the potential of the program after that loss than I did before the game was played. I also believe that you can sometimes learn more through failure than success. Right now the team should be hungry and hopeful and yes disappointed, but that is the kind you can build upon I hope.
This team, this year - Yes. That doesn't mean that's where the program is.
Moral victory, no.
But we should acknowledge the growth of this team after the debacle against Duke, and also recognize the fact that a very raw R-Fr QB limited what we could do offensively. That's not making excuses, that's reality.
You can argue about roster management all you want, but the roster is what it is at this point, and CJF's job is to make the best of it.
Cautiously optimistic.
We need to get our offense back in gear like the 1st half vs. Miami and UNC.
Defense is competing. They are doing okay while having a ton of issues. Hoping for consistency.
Yes.
I interpret this question to mean "based on our expectations in August 2019, before the Duke disaster, are we meeting expectations?". The answer is yes.
Miami game - most thought we would lose pre-season. Turns out Miami isn't as good as most thought they would be, but still a good win in the division against a team with a pulse, on the road. Can't discount these.
UNC - most thought this was an automatic win pre-season, but that was based on last year's awful UNC team and the thinking that it'd take Mack a while to rebuild. Well, it's happened faster than we thought. This UNC team is better than we expected, and let's be honest...this UNC team would have been scary / challenging, even for better VT teams (08, 09, 11, 16, etc. - not saying VT loses, just that UNC challenges and fan base feels nervous before the game looking at what Howell has been able to do and some of the teams UNC had beaten / almost beaten before playing us). In short - this is a big win, in almost any year.
ND game - most thought we would lose this game, both before the season and right up until kickoff. If you had told me we'd play our backup QB, get some awful calls from the refs, and still come within 1, I think most of us would have taken that any day.
We all know coming into 2019 that this team had a chance to win the coastal and have a good record, but probably wasn't going to be one of our better teams in recent history. We're only 12 months removed from a 2018 season we'd all like to forget, so let's not pretend 2019 expectations were 11-1 and a shot at the CFP.
What I do know is that my outlook on the future has changed a lot. After the Duke game, I thought it'd be a matter of enduring 2-3 more .500-ish seasons before we had to fire Fu and start over. Now, I feel pretty optimistic, and the coaches and players deserve a lot of credit for the turnaround. The program still has its share of issues (current state of recruiting being one of them), but think about this...
- this team could have quit after the Duke game, we've seen FSU and L'ville do so in recent seasons. This team has done anything but. They battled like crazy in all 3 of the games I mentioned above and showed a ton of grit.
- every single one of those teams that we played is A LOT more experienced than we are, but we went in with our underclassmen and beat them or almost beat them (we're probably 4-0 in this stretch if HH plays all 4 games).
...no one knows what transfer portal surprises we might get (seriously hoping none), or (more importantly) who will replace Bud, but think about this: who else in the ACC is going to have to replace only one starter (Floyd) in their starting lineup, and feels relatively good about the recent performances of the other 21 starters on O and D? I'm not saying all is perfect, or that Fu is out of the woods, or anything like that for sure. But, I am cautiously optimistic that we're going to be really good in 20 and 21.
Now - we gotta get focused and go on a 4-0 run here, cause I'll be damned if we let UVA end the streak and win their first coastal title. With all the talent we have coming back in 2020, I'd just hate to see a one-year gap in our dominance over them. We let them get one in 2003, so now instead of saying "21 straight", we say "16 straight and 20 of the last 21". In 2035, I don't wanna be saying "15 straight and 35 of the last 37" - I wanna be able to simply say "31 straight"! f*** uva and Go Hokies!
I guess 'expectations' are different for everyone, but we're looking ahead trying to find wins on the schedule to scrape bowl eligibility with the 2nd easiest P5 schedule, and have one of the worst recruiting classes in the country. I didn't expect an NY6 bowl or anything this year, but given its the 4th year with the program, it's hard to say we're 'meeting the expectations' I feel the program is capable of. Moral victories don't really move the needle.
Since Miami, we're at least playing a better quarterback (who probably should have started the season) and there has been notable improvement on OL play. There are 2 young DTs I like, but the DE position is still a shit show and we can't seem to gain any traction recruiting DL. I'm happy we beat UNC, but I think we really sneaked out of that game with a W more than we 'beat' them. Our LBs look like they're playing better, and DBs are marginally playing better, but depth is still a big concern.
Even if we were to win out, I think there still need to be 4-5 coaching staff moves (inclusive of Bud) this off-season in order to get on a better long-term trajectory.
We aren't "looking ahead trying to find wins on the schedule to scrape bowl eligibility". At least I'm not. We are right in the thick of the Coastal race, and all 4 games ahead of us are winnable. We certainly won't be favored against Wake, or likely UVA unless we're 8-3 going into that game, but we should be going into each and every week expecting to contend for a win. That's a complete 180° turn from last year, where we were going into each game just hoping to not get blown out, and still getting disappointed more often than not.
You could debate whether Hooker should have been starting from day one, but all reports I've heard make it sound like he was dealing with a lingering injury, and Fuente didn't want to risk tossing him out there to start. At least he made the obvious choice to bench Willis following the Duke game.
With the addition of Kill to the staff, and with the changes made to both the QB position and the run game, I believe that the staff is starting to figure some things out. Since my biggest concern earlier this year was a complete lack of progress and willingness to change, I'm no longer on the "fire the offensive staff" train like I was a month ago. If we continue to see progression, I see no reason to rush things.