Since this has come up in a couple of threads about how much should we be scoring, and we are only playing conference teams, lets take a look at the data. I removed all schools that played less than 4 games (which only one non-P5 team played 4 P5 teams so kudos to Lincoln Riley's ECU team. As marked 2013 was non-AQ teams not P5, so slightly different teams in there.
Virginia Tech is there in 2009 (31.5), 2010 (33.4), 2016 (33.3), and 2019 (32.4).
| 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 (non-aq) | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LSU | 47 | Oklahoma | 48.8 | Oklahoma State | 43.8 | Oklahoma | 44.5 | Baylor | 43.3 | TCU | 45.5 | Florida State | 47.9 | Oregon | 48.3 | Oklahoma State | 46.6 | Oregon | 42.7 | Oregon | 39.1 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 44.8 | Clemson | 45.7 | Oklahoma | 43.3 | Pittsburgh | 41.9 | Oklahoma | 43 | Baylor | 44.9 | Baylor | 47.2 | Baylor | 42.4 | Baylor | 43.5 | Wisconsin | 42.4 | Cincinnati | 36.7 |
| 3 | Alabama | 43.7 | Alabama | 43.4 | Ohio State | 40.3 | Louisville | 41.4 | Texas Tech | 41.6 | Oregon | 43.9 | Oregon | 43.8 | Oklahoma State | 40.5 | Oregon | 43.3 | Oklahoma State | 41.5 | Texas | 35.1 |
| 4 | Clemson | 42.2 | Ohio State | 41.8 | Arizona | 39.6 | Washington | 40.4 | North Carolina | 39.7 | Ohio State | 43.5 | Ohio State | 43.5 | Clemson | 40 | Stanford | 42 | Stanford | 39.3 | Stanford | 34.9 |
| 5 | Oklahoma | 39.3 | West Virginia | 39.2 | Penn State | 38.7 | Texas Tech | 39.6 | Oregon | 39.7 | Michigan State | 38.5 | Texas A&M | 40.1 | Texas A&M | 39.3 | Wisconsin | 41.7 | Oklahoma | 38.6 | Texas Tech | 34.7 |
| 6 | Washington State | 35.8 | Syracuse | 39.1 | Georgia | 36.5 | Alabama | 38.8 | Oklahoma State | 38.9 | Georgia | 37.8 | Arizona State | 38.5 | Kansas State | 38.1 | Texas A&M | 38.6 | Auburn | 37.4 | Georgia Tech | 33.5 |
| 7 | Minnesota | 34.2 | Washington State | 35.7 | Louisville | 36.2 | Clemson | 38.4 | Clemson | 38.6 | Georgia Tech | 37.5 | Clemson | 38 | Alabama | 38 | Oklahoma | 36.8 | Ohio State | 34.3 | Oregon State | 33.2 |
| 8 | USC | 33.7 | Michigan | 34.6 | Alabama | 34.6 | Penn State | 38.3 | Stanford | 38.3 | California | 36.9 | Missouri | 37.4 | North Carolina | 36.9 | USC | 35.8 | Arkansas | 34.1 | Virginia Tech | 31.5 |
| 9 | Louisville | 33.3 | Oklahoma State | 34.2 | Auburn | 34 | Oklahoma State | 37.6 | TCU | 38.3 | East Carolina | 35.3 | Auburn | 37.1 | Arizona | 36.7 | West Virginia | 34.5 | Illinois | 33.7 | Arkansas | 31.2 |
| 10 | Texas | 33.2 | Georgia | 33.6 | Wake Forest | 33.9 | Michigan | 37.3 | Ohio State | 36 | Nebraska | 35 | Alabama | 37.1 | Ohio State | 36.7 | LSU | 34.1 | Virginia Tech | 33.4 | Clemson | 30.9 |
| 11 | Utah | 32.4 | Missouri | 32 | Texas Tech | 32.9 | Tennessee | 37 | Indiana | 35.3 | Alabama | 34.2 | Washington | 36.8 | Nevada | 36.7 | Michigan | 34 | Baylor | 33 | Notre Dame | 30.5 |
| 12 | Virginia Tech | 32.4 | Texas A&M | 32 | USC | 32.8 | Washington State | 37 | Arizona State | 34.6 | Oklahoma | 33.9 | Oklahoma State | 35.7 | Oklahoma | 36.6 | Arkansas | 33.7 | Kansas State | 32.3 | Connecticut | 30 |
| 13 | Oregon | 31.9 | Purdue | 31.5 | Washington | 32.7 | California | 35.4 | Arkansas | 34.4 | Mississippi State | 33.8 | Georgia | 35.2 | West Virginia | 36.5 | Kansas State | 33.3 | Alabama | 32.1 | ||
| 14 | Boston College | 31.9 | Texas | 31.3 | Arizona State | 32.5 | Ohio State | 35.2 | Mississippi | 34 | Florida State | 33.7 | Indiana | 34.6 | Florida State | 35.9 | Washington | 33.1 | North Carolina State | 31.1 | ||
| 15 | Florida | 31.7 | North Carolina State | 31.1 | Notre Dame | 32 | Oregon | 33.8 | Alabama | 33.3 | Arizona | 33.4 | UCF | 34 | Georgia | 34.8 | Clemson | 32.7 | Georgia | 30.1 | ||
| 16 | Iowa State | 30.8 | Notre Dame | 30.9 | North Carolina State | 31.9 | Virginia Tech | 33.3 | California | 33 | USC | 33.2 | Texas Tech | 33.7 | Texas | 34.7 | Arizona State | 32.6 | ||||
| 17 | Notre Dame | 30.8 | Texas Tech | 30.8 | Oregon | 31.4 | USC | 32.5 | Washington State | 32.8 | UCLA | 32.8 | Oregon State | 33.4 | Arizona State | 34 | Alabama | 31.9 | ||||
| 18 | Michigan | 30.3 | Iowa | 30.4 | Wisconsin | 31.2 | Arizona State | 32.4 | UCLA | 32.5 | Auburn | 32.6 | Wisconsin | 33.3 | Texas Tech | 33.6 | Missouri | 31 | ||||
| 19 | Baylor | 30.1 | Arizona | 30.3 | Stanford | 30.5 | Baylor | 31.8 | West Virginia | 32.5 | Arizona State | 32.2 | UCLA | 33 | Georgia Tech | 33.3 | Georgia Tech | 30.4 | ||||
| 20 | Oregon State | 30.1 | Penn State | 30.1 | West Virginia | 30.4 | Florida State | 31.7 | Tennessee | 31.9 | Wisconsin | 32 | Kansas State | 32.6 | UCLA | 33 | ||||||
| 21 | Auburn | 30.1 | LSU | 30 | Texas A&M | 30.1 | Texas A&M | 31.1 | Notre Dame | 31.8 | Kansas State | 32 | Stanford | 32 | Louisville | 32.1 | ||||||
| 22 | Utah | 31 | Michigan | 31.7 | West Virginia | 31.8 | LSU | 31.6 | Northwestern | 31.2 | ||||||||||||
| 23 | West Virginia | 30.2 | Nebraska | 31.5 | South Carolina | 31.3 | South Carolina | 31.1 | Tennessee | 31.2 | ||||||||||||
| 24 | Arizona | 30.9 | Washington State | 31 | Oklahoma | 31.1 | Miami (Florida) | 30.8 | ||||||||||||||
| 25 | LSU | 30.2 | Notre Dame | 30 | Duke | 31 | USC | 30.7 | ||||||||||||||
| 26 | USC | 30 | Cincinnati | 30.6 | Wisconsin | 30.5 | ||||||||||||||||
| 27 | Arizona | 30.4 | Cincinnati | 30.3 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 28 | Michigan | 30.2 | Syracuse | 30.2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 29 | Georgia Tech | 30 | Penn State | 30.1 | ||||||||||||||||||
To sumerize the data (which really shows that 2012-2015 were high scoring years, but possibly defense, or rules have caught up):
| 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams over 35 PPG | 6 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 3 |
| Teams over 30 PPG (4 game min) | 21 | 21 | 21 | 23 | 26 | 25 | 29 | 21 | 19 | 15 | 12 |
| All teams over 30 PPG | 29 | 33 | 31 | 31 | 35 | 32 | 34 | 35 | 28 | 22 | 17 |
Now lets look at the ACC conference
| 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clemson | 48 | Clemson | 46.7 | Louisville | 36.5 | Louisville | 45.9 | North Carolina | 41.9 | Georgia Tech | 37 | Florida State | 50.7 | Clemson | 46.5 | Clemson | 34.2 | Virginia Tech | 35.8 | Clemson | 33.6 |
| 2 | Louisville | 35.3 | Syracuse | 39.8 | Clemson | 32.8 | Pittsburgh | 44.6 | Clemson | 38.8 | Florida State | 35.9 | Clemson | 40.4 | Florida State | 37.7 | Florida State | 31.3 | North Carolina State | 32.3 | Virginia Tech | 33.6 |
| 3 | Boston College | 33.1 | North Carolina State | 33.4 | Wake Forest | 31.3 | Clemson | 39.8 | Duke | 27.5 | Pittsburgh | 30.8 | Miami | 31.3 | North Carolina | 37.3 | North Carolina | 28.1 | Florida State | 30.2 | Florida State | 33.5 |
| 4 | Virginia Tech | 32.8 | Georgia Tech | 33 | North Carolina State | 29.9 | Virginia Tech | 34.1 | North Carolina State | 27.4 | North Carolina | 30 | Georgia Tech | 31.1 | Georgia Tech | 37.2 | Georgia Tech | 28 | Maryland | 28.8 | Georgia Tech | 33.3 |
| 5 | Virginia | 29.6 | Pittsburgh | 31 | Georgia Tech | 28 | Florida State | 30 | Virginia | 27.1 | Duke | 27 | Duke | 29.4 | Miami | 35.4 | Wake Forest | 27.5 | Miami | 25.6 | Miami | 31.6 |
| 6 | Wake Forest | 29.4 | Wake Forest | 29.1 | Boston College | 25.5 | Miami | 29.4 | Pittsburgh | 27 | Louisville | 27 | North Carolina | 28.1 | North Carolina State | 28.4 | Miami | 27.4 | North Carolina | 24.4 | Wake Forest | 28.3 |
| 7 | North Carolina | 29.3 | North Carolina | 27 | Miami | 24.4 | North Carolina | 28.5 | Florida State | 27 | Clemson | 25.5 | Boston College | 26.8 | Duke | 28.1 | Virginia Tech | 25.8 | Duke | 24.3 | North Carolina State | 26.6 |
| 8 | Miami | 26.3 | Boston College | 26.1 | Syracuse | 23.6 | Georgia Tech | 24.8 | Louisville | 26 | North Carolina State | 24.6 | Virginia Tech | 22.8 | Virginia Tech | 24.1 | North Carolina State | 25.8 | Georgia Tech | 23.6 | Duke | 23.3 |
| 9 | Florida State | 25.9 | Miami | 24.6 | Virginia Tech | 23.1 | Syracuse | 23.9 | Virginia Tech | 25.4 | Miami | 23.9 | Pittsburgh | 22.4 | Virginia | 21 | Maryland | 23.8 | Clemson | 20.3 | Boston College | 21.8 |
| 9 | Duke | 25.9 | Virginia Tech | 24.5 | Pittsburgh | 22.8 | North Carolina State | 21.6 | Syracuse | 25.3 | Boston College | 22.9 | Maryland | 20.1 | Maryland | 19.5 | Virginia | 19.9 | Virginia | 20 | North Carolina | 20.9 |
| 11 | Syracuse | 25.3 | Virginia | 24.3 | Virginia | 20.1 | Duke | 20.9 | Miami | 24.9 | Virginia | 20.9 | North Carolina State | 16.9 | Boston College | 19.3 | Duke | 19.5 | Wake Forest | 16.9 | Maryland | 20.1 |
| 12 | Pittsburgh | 19.9 | Duke | 22 | Duke | 19.8 | Virginia | 20.6 | Georgia Tech | 23.5 | Virginia Tech | 19.4 | Virginia | 16.5 | Wake Forest | 16.5 | Boston College | 17.4 | Boston College | 16.8 | Virginia | 15.4 |
| 13 | Georgia Tech | 19.1 | Florida State | 20.4 | Florida State | 19.5 | Wake Forest | 17.5 | Wake Forest | 15 | Syracuse | 12.9 | Wake Forest | 15.5 | ||||||||
| 14 | North Carolina State | 16.1 | Louisville | 20.3 | North Carolina | 19.3 | Boston College | 12 | Boston College | 9.1 | Wake Forest | 12.1 | Syracuse | 15.5 | ||||||||
Only once, 2010, did we score over 35 PPG in conference. Against, 2009, 2010, 2016, and 2019 we scored over 30 PPG in conference as we did out of conference. In 2009 and 2010 we led the conference in PPG (in conference games). Each of those years we did better in conference than out of conference.
| ACC | P5 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 33.6 | 31.5 |
| 2010 | 35.8 | 33.4 |
| 2016 | 34.1 | 33.3 |
| 2019 | 32.8 | 32.4 |
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Comments
When compiling the average score are games against FCS and G5 counted? Example Oklahoma scores 63 against FAU in 2018 or 2019 LSU scoring 55 on Georgia Southern and 65 against Northwestern State and 42 Utah State. Would only counting P5 lower the average down that much for any teams? Especially SEC with often two lower level OOC games each year?
No, this is only vs. P5 teams, or vs. conference teams (for the ACC).
you should consider putting that in the thread title then /s
Ok wasn't sure if you only removed teams that played less than P5 teams or also games by P5 against lower level. Great work up. This data isn't anywhere else out there it all includes the lower level games.
If it isn't already, it should be restricted to regular time only
Exactly like the ACC lol?
But as pointed out, this data is against just P5 teams.
To determine how including FCS or G5 would be labor intensive at this point in my data collection, however, it is likely that including G5 and FCS teams would raise a teams PPG based on the stats that follow:
So i can't say yes, but probably. However, this is more to look at what this means for this season as most teams are playing P5 opponents only.
Here are the rollups for all FBS teams vs G5/FCS. Some of these numbers only represent 1 game. But basically the G5/FCS gets whaled on.
Thanks for putting this together. I've thought about looking into it before, but never had the time.
Out of curiosity, outside of leveling the field to just P5 matchups, is there any other standardization going on here? That is, do we remove defensive and special teams scoring to just see offensive stats? Also, are we only looking at regulation scoring, or are we including Overtime scoring as well?
Unfortunately no, this is final score. So defense scores and OT are in there. I fairly easily get you break down in to TDs, XPs, FGs, 2pt. conv. but doesn't account for who scored the TD.
Gotcha. Not complaining, this is still great information, so thanks!
For anyone with time, I think that would be an interesting project, even if you broke it down to just the ACC or even the Coastal to see where we stand.
Oh I've already complained that scoring offense stats includes defensive TDs and scoring defense stats include defensive TDs. If my defense doesn't let a team cross the 50 and yet my offense throws 3 pick sixes my defense shouldn't get knocked for 21 points.
I mean if those kind of advanced stats existed, it would show Bud Foster absolutely needs to be in the football hall of fame. The way his teams carried VT in the 2000-2010 window doesn't get appreciated nearly as much as it should, and I say that knowing he already gets a lot of credit for it.
Yeah, though Bud in the HoF is a different story as it's currently only for head coaches, which is a bunch of BS.
The defenses have caught up in some ways, but that era was also famous for some pretty insane imbalance between the way the game was officiated. Teams were abusing the hell out of no calls in the RPO game for ineligble man downfield. It wasn't uncommon for those Auburn, Baylor, and TCU teams in particular to be almost hitting their OL in the back 5-8 yards downfield. Auburn's game tying TD in the 2013 Iron Bowl had 4 of 5 OL 3+ yards downfield several at 5 yards and no calls. Not to mention all the subbing rules favor the offense and teams were going fast just to keep the wrong defensive personnel on the field with no possible recourse for the defense. I don't remember the year, but they made a rule where if the offense gets to sub they have to wait for the defense to be able to sub as well.
There are definitely things i noticed that i want to go look up, like Pitt's 44 ppg in ACC in 2016. I do remember the substitution rule too, but don't remember the year. But i am curious to why we got just a 5 year period as i seem to remember teams going no huddle prior to 2012. However, i personally think that RPO is worse for defenses that no-huddle so it would be interesting to see what the data shows, if it can account for everything.
I probably should have said "defenses and/or rules"
Random, but my first takeaway was just how insane LSU's takeoff was this year. The ten years prior, they're sitting around 30-32 in a good year - and then all of a sudden 47 in 2019??? Just let that sink in. Heck, they're the only SEC team at the top of the list in any year. And that's WITH Texas, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson on the schedule... That has got to be one of, if not the best offense in CFB history. Safe to say nobody saw that coming. It'll be interesting to see how far the dropoff is this year.
Yeah I think a lot of the best offenses in CFB history have been in recent years. Tua's Bama teams, 2019 LSU, Basically all of Lincoln Riley's teams, have been putting up insane numbers and advanced analytics. Hell, Deshaun Watson had a 4000/1000 season in 2015.
Kind of just goes to show how little parity there is in college sports. In order to be a championship team, you need to be absolutely dominant to the point of absolutely blowing everyone out and not shy to absolutely bury everyone without taking your foot off the gas.
Being good isn't enough. Being great isn't enough. You need to be absolutely dominant.
One thing that showed up while compiling this (that won't show up here), is how many times removed TCU for not having enough games. They put up some points.
So you are saying we should be going after former TCU coaches if we want to put up some points?
Also, if anyone wants a good laugh, check out Boston College's 2015 team. They played 3 top 10 teams that year and only gave up more than 20 points twice.... (to us and Clemson). By the numbers, probably one of the best defensive teams in the country.
So how good were they? Oh that's right, only one non-FCS victory, because they never put up more than 17 points against an FBS team....
By the way, thanks for your work on this, KingJames! I know these kinds of things are tedious and take a lot of work, but it is much appreciated! Love looking through stats.
Welcome, i enjoy this stuff. This was a lot less tedious than most of the other stuff I have done.
We seem to do really well when we average about 33 points. That was with Bud's defenses, but also goes to show scoring 40 a game shouldn't be the benchmark.
This is fantastic work. The question still lingers for me though, and it was mentioned above, how many points was the offense scoring against P-5 competition?
All of them
As mentioned above the stats don't take into account defensive and special teams scores (which I'm sure would require quite a bit of work).
Good work.
Maybe we're a decent team after all?
What interests me the most is how similar 2019 and 2016 look with drastically different fan opinions of each. Obviously the defense was the difference maker in overall standings but we are not as far away as it may seem to getting this thing on track. Now we need to get some croots to keep the trajectory on an upward course.
PPG is nice, but it's not an adjusted statistic. The ACC had a rare "strong" year in 2016, which makes it all the more impressive that we had a really good season. Our schedule was on the weaker end of P5 schools in 2019 and we still lost to UVA for the first time since 2003, got beat at home by Duke by 35, lost our bowl game to a team playing a WR at QB, and lost to Boston College (who lost to Kansas at home by 24 points two weeks later).
In 2016 we took the eventual national champs to the wire in the ACCCG, beat UVA 52-10, overturned a 0-24 halftime deficit in our bowl game against an SEC team with 35 unanswered points, and had a couple handfuls of NFL players on the roster. This was also year 1, and we finished the season hopeful that our newfound offense and jolt of energy into the program would continue.
I'm not so sure the two seasons are really comparable at all. When you look at the seasons in terms of memorable moments, and the context surrounding each season, I think its very easy to see why there are drastically different fan opinions.
The defense in 2016 was better than the 2019 defense. It can be that simple.
I was only comparing the offensive total production similarities. The 2016 team was hot garbage in first halves all year. So while the bowl game was a nod to perseverance it was also a common flaw to dig a hole. I do agree that timing matters but a raw comparison is not that much different.